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Raphael Nishimura

@rnishimura.bsky.social
3.1K followers 323 following 1.2K posts

Survey methodologist and statistician at the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan #survey | #sampling | #statistics | #RStats

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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 5h
University of Michigan expert advisory on Brazil's presidential election available for interviews: From Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro to polling, Banco Master scandal, economy, public security and Brazil's global ties, @umich.edu experts are ready to talk. ➡️ news.umich.edu/inside-brazi...
news.umich.edu
Inside Brazil's volatile presidential race
University of Michigan experts, all of whom speak Portuguese and/or Spanish can discuss a variety of topics relating to Brazil's Oct. 4 presidential election between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lu...
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 21h
Dei uma entrevista para a BBC News em que discuto divesos pontos sobre as pesquisas pré-eleitorais brasileiras: www.bbc.com/portuguese/a...
bbc.com
Voto envergonhado de bolsonaristas é mito ou verdade? Especialista em pesquisas da Universidade de Michigan explica - BBC News Brasil
O estatístico Raphael Nishimura explica que diferentes hipóteses ajudam a explicar o fenômeno que dá origem a essa crença, que não é recente e tem paraelo com a eleição de Trump nos EUA.
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Center for Political Studies @umisrcps.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
🇧🇷 Brazil, Latin America’s largest democracy, will hold presidential elections on Oct. 4. Join the Latin American Elections Hub for an expert panel discussing the stakes and implications of the election on Oct. 13, 3 to 4:20. RSVP and join us for the hybrid event: events.umich.edu/event/152569
On October 4, 2026, Brazil, Latin America’s largest democracy, will hold presidential elections. Voters will also elect members of the National Congress, governors and vice governors, and more than 1,000 state legislators. The elections come at a consequential moment for Brazil, amid concerns about corruption and inflation, disputes over tariffs and trade, and growing tensions with the Trump administration.

The Latin American Elections Hub (LATAM-EH) brings together a group of experts to discuss the stakes of the election for Brazil and its broader regional and international implications. The panel will analyze the results of the first round, the factors shaping voter behavior, and the prospects for a potential second round on October 25, 2026.

The panelists will be Cesar Zucco (Columbia University), Raphael Nishimura (University of Michigan, ISR), and Malu Gatto (University College London). The event chair is Pedro Luz de Castro of the University of Michigan. Edgar Franco-Vivanco, Director of the Latin American Elections Hub, is the discussant.

The event is hybrid, at Haven Hall 5679, and on Zoom. 10/13, 3-4:20
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I had the pleasure to talk about election polling in Brazil at the podcast of The Brazilian Report. Check it out: newsletters.brazilian.report/podcast/s/ex...
newsletters.brazilian.report
How to read Brazil's election polls
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are statistically tied less than two weeks before Brazil's first round, and a flood of contradictory polls is feeding claims that pollsters are rigging the race. Rafael Nishimura, director of sampling operations at the Univers...
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I don't understand why, in the year of 2026, pollsters are still resisting weighting by PID or past/recall vote.
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Want to better understand how statistical sampling works in a visual and interactive way? Take a look at this learning tool I created (with help from Claude): websites.umich.edu/~raphaeln/sa... All feedback is welcome!
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Quer entender melhor como funciona amostragem em estatística de uma forma visual e ilustrativa? Dê uma olhada nesse aplicação que eu criei (com ajuda do Claude): websites.umich.edu/~raphaeln/si... Todo feedback é bem-vindo!
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
This is quite concerning and disturbing!
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
This is how you properly conduct a post-mortem analysis of a poll!
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
A Palver publicou ontem sua primeira pesquisa pré-eleitoral demonstrando, em minha opinião, um grande diferencial perante aos institutos de pesquisa brasileiros: um compromisso com a honestidade e, acima de tudo, completa transparência metodológica. Segue um fio sobre isso: 🧵[1/17]
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Reposted by Raphael Nishimura
Joy Wilke @joywilke.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
@jackmiller.bsky.social and i went to #AAPOR in may and wrote up some of our findings and others' interesting research for the @bluelabs.bsky.social blog! disengaged voters - how to reach them & why they matter: bluelabs.com/dynamic-elec... AI fraud in online panels - bluelabs.com/when-ai-come...
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Em pleno 2026 e tem gente que ainda leva AtlasIntel a sério... Se você realmente acha que não tem nada de problemático com a metodologia deles, eu tenho um princípe nigeriano aqui para te apresentar... 😅
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
C'mon folks, what are we even doing here? Pollster self-proclaims themselves as the most accurate pollster in the world, according to analyses conducted by the pollster themselves using metrics defined by the very same pollster. Shameless self-promotion with a pinch of conflict of intererest 😅
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Glad to see that the NYT (Nate Cohn) has finally decided to join the past vote weighting team! :) Their "synthetic past vote" approach is quite similar to what I've been advocating: using the voter file to reduce turnout overreporting. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/18/u...
nytimes.com
A Few Changes for the Times/Siena Poll
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
É frustante ver gente tomando isso pelo valor de face, sem o menor senso crítico, e depois sai por aí repetindo que esse foi o instituto que mais "acertou" as eleições. Por conta disso, coloco nesse fio alguns dos problemas e limitações dessa comparação: 🧵+
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
The methodology of publicly published pre-election polls shouldn't be a black box!
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Bolsonaristas surtados com a AtlasIntel no Brasil, enquanto nos EUA eles veem sofrendo hate dos Trumpistas há meses, e eu só assim...
static.klipy.com
Michael Jackson Comendo Picoca
ALT: Michael Jackson Comendo Picoca
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Our @um-src.bsky.social super-star, no introductions needed, @bradytwest.bsky.social delivering his presentation on how to improve survey data integration between probability and non-probability samples at #AAPOR #AAPOR26 #AAPOR2026
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
Back to LA for #AAPOR! Many places to visit, lots of people to see and not enough meals for all the restaurants we need to go! Oh, and of course, brand new things to share and to learn in survey research!
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
If you think we had already talked enough about weighting on "recalled vote", think again! This time, we will be presenting some interesting results of the effects of this approach on measures of association under a missing not at random mechanism.
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Celebrating 80 years of the world-renowned Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan! 🥳🎉 What a huge honor to be part of this history!
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
The contrast of me giving an interview and @joywilke.bsky.social giving an interview, despite both of us being under the same roof!
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
👀👀👀👀
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
This is an interesting illustration of potential bias due to non-ignorable selection: respondents from a political poll recruited by ads on Instagram reporting that their main source of information about politics is Instagram.
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Partisan nonresponse bias in a nutshell
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
A couple of examples of what could happen to the betting odds on these types of platforms if there were no election polls:
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Às vezes me perguntam quais considero os melhores institutos de pesquisa no Brasil. Como metodologista e estatístico, prefiro me concentrar nas melhores práticas metodológicas. Então fica aqui uma colinha para o que considero as melhores prática metodológicas em pesquisas de opinião no Brasil: 🧵+
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Me at looking at the logos of Michigan, Oklahoma and Eastern during the gymnastics meet: "Margin Of Error" 😜
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Love surveys? Work with the best!
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Reposted by Raphael Nishimura
Joy Wilke @joywilke.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Love surveys? We're hiring! We're looking for new members of the polling team at @bluelabs.bsky.social. Two roles are focused on execution of day-to-day polling operations (Polling Manager, Lead Polling Manager) while the Survey Scientist is an R&D role! Share & apply! bluelabs.com/careers/
bluelabs.com
Careers - BlueLabs
We’re always looking to add new talent to our growing team of strategists, data scientists, and software engineers who operate at the forefront of data
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Huge loss to the public opinion field!
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
One of my many pet peeves is people who denote survey sample sizes by N. In surveys statistics, because we are dealing with finite population inferences, we reserve the notation N for population size and use n for sample size.
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Reposted by Raphael Nishimura
Institute for Social Research (ISR) - University of Michigan @umisr.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
The Shades of ISR Pantone ™️ palette 💙 💛
Outdoor photo of the Convergence sculpture at ISR during a snowfall; a white text box reads “INSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH, Snow Flurries on Convergence.”Interior view of ISR's atrium with hanging plants and glowing pendant lights; white text box reads “INSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH, Atrium Glow.”Exterior photo of Perry Building with clear blue sky and red brick facade; white text box reads “INSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH, Perry Brick Red.”Scenic rooftop view from ISR’s 6th floor showing a blue flag with a yellow M flying above Ann Arbor rooftops; white text box reads “INSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH, View From the 6th Floor.”
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
I always thought this rule that the total error is 2x reported MoE nonsensical, because bias in surveys doesn’t typically scale with sample size. In fact, we usually see the opposite: smaller, more carefully designed prob samples tend to present smaller total error than large nonprob samples.
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
The Survey Research Center at the Institute for Social Research of the University of Michigan turns 80 years old this year. Very proud to be part of this history! youtu.be/giSsP7o4PZg?...
youtu.be
We Are SRC
YouTube video by Survey Research Center, University of Michigan
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Resultados da pesquisa Meio Ideia, primeira pesquisa pré-eleitoral nacional de 2026 registrada no TSE (BR-06731/2026). Pesquisa telefônica com 2 mil entrevistas realizadas entre 08/01 e 12/01. Perguntas espotânea e estimuladas com cenários de 1° turno com Tarcísio e Flávio): +
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
Merry Christmas! 🎅🎄
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
I remember that when I would urge media to talk more about winning probabilities derived by forecasters/aggregators in their polling coverage, people would tell me the general public would not understand it. I guess the media decided that this is not a problem anymore? www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/c...
cnbc.com
CNBC and Kalshi Strike Exclusive Partnership
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
What would once be the dream of any subjectivity Bayesian -- the popularization of using wagering odds as probabilities, is now becoming a real dystopia... 😫
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 15/11/2025
This is some sort of measurement error, just don't ask me which 😅 www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcn...
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
This is an incredible opportunity if you want to work in polling and surveys with some of the best in the field! 😊
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
For reference, it took Selzer 12 days after the election last year to produce and release a full post-mortem of her infamous poll. Given their background on methodological transparency, I'd be very surprise if we see anything remotely similar from this so-called "America's most accurate pollster".
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
Did you say "representative sample"?
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
A year ago today, AtlasIntel said they would deposit at the Roper Center the raw data from their final polls. It's still not there. Something tells me they will not be depositing that data file, neither the ones from this week's polls...
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
I was just saying this in the other site: Mamdani's share should probably have a heavier weight in the post-election polling analysis than Cuomo's share, or at least it should be put together with Sliwa's, given the likely late shift. And looks like somebody already did it.
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Believe or not, the New Jersey poll wasn't the lowest point in US elections for the (former?) "American most accurate pollster", AtlasIntel Take a look at their final poll in the PNP Primaries in Puerto Rico last year: Poll: Pierluisi +14 Result: González +9 That's a 23-points difference!
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
l guess NJ is a small demographic subgroup for AtlasIntel standards?
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Mood da noite
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Also, can we all put to bed now the myth of "the most accurate pollster in the US"? I know I've been saying this since after the 2020 election, but I think we can finally agree on that, right?! RIGHT?!?
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Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Wow, turns out weighting the hell out of your sample recruited through river sampling out of ads in social media doesn't work after all, who knew?! 🤭
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