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Rikio Inouye

@rinouye.bsky.social
114 followers 145 following 51 posts

Postdoctoral Fellow Stanford CISAC, incoming AP at Temple University. Studies race, international security, and foreign policy support. A twin, former JET program participant in Toyama (my second home). rikioinouye.org

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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Nidhi V. Banava and Kirk Bansak have a neat piece out now in PNAS on the strategies people use in conjoint experiments. TLDR: Simple heuristic strategies are most common. If you use conjoints, you should def. read!
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Draft here - papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Democratic Backsliding Damages Foreign Public Support for Security Cooperation
Does democratic backsliding shape foreign publics' preferences for security cooperation with a partner state? We examine this question through two multinational
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
with @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social , @eunajo.bsky.social @kmatush.bsky.social
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Grateful that this co-authored work is now cond. accepted at @apsrjournal.bsky.social ! Does backsliding damage allied public support for security cooperation? Prior work suggests no. We show it does! 6 cntry + 10K rspdnts shows backsliding ⬇️ ally support for intel. sharing + sec. cooperation.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Woo! R&R! Grateful to editors and reviewers still processing manuscripts during the late summer!
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
I'm so excited that this is out - an important, accessible resource for people who want to do and teach quant research! Congratulations @uptonorwell.bsky.social !!!
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Does backsliding undermine allied war support? - 4 ctry experiment during the 2026 US–Iran war - US strikes w/o Cong. authorization ⬇️allied publics' support. - Strongest effects for UK w.p. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... w/ @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social @eunajo.bsky.social @kmatush.bsky.social
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Reposted by Rikio Inouye
Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Thrilled this paper is out in the wild! Here’s my earlier thread explaining Text as Behavior: bsky.app/profile/owas...
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Thanks for the repost! Definitely was one of the most striking findings - huge divergence btwn what people SAY and what the SHOW. I find similar findings in other conflict related conjoints. But for those looking, here’s the link to the piece out on @isq-jrnl.bsky.social doi.org/10.1093/isq/...
doi.org
Unraveling Americans’ Selective Sympathies Toward Israelis and Palestinians
Abstract. Conflicts manifest on two fronts: the battlefield and global public opinion. This study explores how ordinary individuals form sympathies toward
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Grateful for this collaboration. Important divergence between what people "say" matters, and what their actions "show" matters. TLDR: People STRONGLY deny importance of religion in their thinking, but belligerent religion is the MOST consequential attribute for sympathy. doi.org/10.1093/isq/...
doi.org
Unraveling Americans’ Selective Sympathies Toward Israelis and Palestinians
Abstract. Conflicts manifest on two fronts: the battlefield and global public opinion. This study explores how ordinary individuals form sympathies toward
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
8/ OA here: t.co/XF07Axvv0B
t.co
https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/70/2/sqag027/8687393
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
/ This paper is also personally meaningful to me. It was my first collaboration with @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social — a collaboration and friendship that genuinely changed the trajectory of my graduate school experience and research agenda.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
6/ More broadly, the paper argues that modern conflicts unfold on two fronts: • the battlefield • global public opinion Understanding how ordinary people process conflict matters politically and psychologically.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
5/ We also find fewer partisan and religious divides than many might expect. But racial differences in perceptions of the conflict remained substantial and persistent across studies.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
4/ Respondents were also highly selective in the information they responded to. People were much more responsive to concerns emphasized by the side they already sympathized with and comparatively unresponsive to the opposing side’s concerns.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
3/ One finding stood out clearly: Religion consistently emerged as one of the strongest predictors of sympathy and support. Whether actors were described as Jewish or Muslim mattered enormously for sympathy in conflict.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
2/ We fielded conjoint experiments during the Gaza conflict: • October 2023 (immediately after the ground invasion) • May 2025 Respondents evaluated hypothetical conflict scenarios involving different attributes of the belligerents.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
1/ We often assume people respond to international conflicts through universal humanitarian concern. But our findings suggest public reactions are also deeply shaped by identity and motivated reasoning.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
New article w/ @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social “Unraveling Americans’ Selective Sympathies Toward Israelis and Palestinians,” is now OA at @isq-jrnl.bsky.social ! Using conjoints fielded during Gaza war, we show motivated reasoning alters how Americans react to info about the conflict.
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Reposted by Rikio Inouye
Ryan Brutger @ryanbrutger.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Please help spread the word about these travel grants provided by the @intlcollaboration.bsky.social section of @apsa.bsky.social.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
I’m fear it won’t get better next year. If you’re on the market next year and want to talk / get advice, please reach out. I hope I can pay forward the kindness and support I received!
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Wrong, and deeply unpopular. The public and even local officials are much more supportive of allied migrants compared to non-allied migrants. Cuts across party, ideology, and prior anti-resettlement attitudes. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
From Allies to Neighbors: The Impact of Military Service on Support for Refugee Resettlement
Many of the largest refugee crises occur in the wake of military withdrawals, yet there is little work on public perceptions of migrants who have assisted in pr
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Deeply wrong, and we show, unpopular. We find strong SUPPORT for allied migrants. Support cuts across parties and moves both public (US and UK) and local/state elites. Allyship abroad generates strong support for resettlement at home. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
From Allies to Neighbors: The Impact of Military Service on Support for Refugee Resettlement
Many of the largest refugee crises occur in the wake of military withdrawals, yet there is little work on public perceptions of migrants who have assisted in pr
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
t.co/oK2erkaZ65
t.co
https://preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/article-details/69d81a634770e67d92c5dc76
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
Up in time for #mpsa! Whose lives matter? #AI-generated images allow me to manipulate race of invaded country. Result? Penalty in support for ASIAN and ARAB countries compared to White (and Black!). ~15% ⬇️ in willing. to pay tax to help. Race also biases strategic and material considerations!
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Oona Hathaway @oonahathaway.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
The strikes on Iran are blatantly illegal. I explained in June why the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities were unlawful under US and international law. Everything I wrote then is true today, but this is a far larger assault with far graver consequences. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/23/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Trump’s Strikes on Iran Were Unlawful. Here’s Why That Matters.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
And, they also risk the problematic assumption that the strategic or instrumental considerations like "mil capacity" or "threat perception" are independent of identity. I show they are NOT. They are biased by race (see also Búzás 2013).
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Leaving aside important questions about the current lack of Congressional declaration of war, it's worth noting that public opinion continues to be biased by identity. Studies of conflict and war that omit such considerations risk serious #omittedvariablebias.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Link: rikioinouye.org/research Using multiple survey experiments, respondents impose significant penalties when Asian or Arab countries are invaded, relative to White (and even Black majority countries). These differences persist even when holding constant regime type and strategic context.
rikioinouye.org
Research — Rikio Inouye
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
As the US and #Israel engage in #OperationEpicFury at strike #Iran, I'm mindful of how race and religion may shape public support. My JMP shows (all else equal), sharp penalties in support for Asian and Arab countries being invaded, compared to White and Black. (link below)
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Having military officers in these programs dramatically changes, and improves the understanding between the ivory tower and enlisted service members. tragic to see this
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Neat working paper by Bischof et al. that's apparently now conditionally accepted at JOP. TLDR: Social Desireability bias is less of a concern for online survey research than previously thought. osf.io/preprints/os...
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
6/ Future Questions : If rivalry can produce “inadvertent cooperation” (à la Danny Quah), when does competition generate public goods? How do middle powers navigate and extract gains? How sensitive are protect/peel/pressure/preserve strats to leader change and regime type?
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
5/ Key takeaways: Global crises are important arenas for great power competition. Foreign aid can be humanitarian, strategic, or both. My typology helps better characterize how, and can be applied beyond the realm of vax or health diplomacy.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
4/ The US distribution strategy leans heavily toward: • Protecting high-need countries • Peeling countries away from rivals China’s distribution shows a mix of: • Preserving existing relationships • Pressuring (no vax to Taiwan allies)
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
3/ I analyze US and Chinese vaccine distribution (2021–2022) using: 📊 Cross-national regression 🧠 Bayesian reasoning 🎙️ Original elite interviews 📚 Two in-depth case studies (Paraguay & Nicaragua)
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
2/ I develop a new typology of aid distribution amidst provider competition: • Preserve – reward existing partners • Pressure – punish or coerce those pursuing disfavored policies • Protect – allocate based on health need • Peel – pull states away from rivals
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
1/ The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the importance of health diplomacy during great power rivalry. Given constraints and competing interest, how did the US (under Biden) and China allocate life-saving vaccines?
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Finally out in @isq-jrnl.bsky.social! “Preserve, Pressure, Protect, and Peel: The US–China Rivalry and the Politics of Vaccine Provision” How do great powers decide who gets life-saving aid? Preserve friends? Pressure others? Protect health? Peel fence-sitters? academic.oup.com/isq/article/...
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Team Talarico @teamtalaricohq.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Stephen Colbert SLAMS CBS for not letting James Talarico on Late Night
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Adam Berinsky @adamberinsky.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
I'm teaching a few survey research courses live and online. First, a free one hour seminar. Feb 20 instats.org/seminar/surv... Then a set of two (half) day courses. Not free (sorry!). -Intro Surveys (Feb 26-27): instats.org/seminar/intr... -Advanced Surveys (March 5-6): instats.org/seminar/adva...
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Jaweed Kaleem @jaweedkaleem.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
NEW: The Trump administration has dropped its appeal of a federal court order blocking its $1.2-billion settlement demand to UCLA over alleged campus civil rights violations: www.latimes.com/california/s...
latimes.com
Trump administration drops its appeal of court order blocking $1.2-billion UCLA settlement
The Trump administration dropped its appeal of a major higher education case in which a federal judge blocked its $1.2-billion settlement proposal to UCLA over alleged civil rights violations. But it ...
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Reposted by Rikio Inouye
Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Two things can be true: we’re a competitive authoritarian state with all sorts of efforts to put a thumb on the scale of who has power AND we have sufficiently free and sufficiently fair elections that every month we see the party in power lose.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
2nd Round R&R ➡️ Conditional Acceptance 🥳
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
Got a fellowship rejection and an interview invite for a different fellowship within minutes of each other. The job market really said: stay humble, stay hopeful, stay glued to your inbox.
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Job market season is such a rollar coaster. Got a game-changing R&R!
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Tom Pepinsky @tompepinsky.com · 19/11/2025
One more piece of evidence that the defining problem of an AI world is not “how do we harness the genius machine?”, it is “how do we contain the lying machine?”
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Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Thank you @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social and @kmatush.bsky.social for an amazing Global Public Opinion workshop! Great scholars and conversations ! Wonderful to see @jkertzer.bsky.social @jonathan-renshon.bsky.social @eunajo.bsky.social too!
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Congratulations to @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social and @kmatush.bsky.social for the launch of the Global Public Opinion Lab (GPOL) at Florida State! Lots of exciting plans in the works! (I couldn't take any pictures of public opinion, so here's one of Spanish moss)
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