Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Nidhi V. Banava and Kirk Bansak have a neat piece out now in PNAS on the strategies people use in conjoint experiments. TLDR: Simple heuristic strategies are most common. If you use conjoints, you should def. read! 010
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Draft here - papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....papers.ssrn.comDemocratic Backsliding Damages Foreign Public Support for Security CooperationDoes democratic backsliding shape foreign publics' preferences for security cooperation with a partner state? We examine this question through two multinational 000
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 02/10/2026with @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social , @eunajo.bsky.social @kmatush.bsky.social 010
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Grateful that this co-authored work is now cond. accepted at @apsrjournal.bsky.social ! Does backsliding damage allied public support for security cooperation? Prior work suggests no. We show it does! 6 cntry + 10K rspdnts shows backsliding ⬇️ ally support for intel. sharing + sec. cooperation. 231
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 18/08/2026Woo! R&R! Grateful to editors and reviewers still processing manuscripts during the late summer! 020
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 04/08/2026I'm so excited that this is out - an important, accessible resource for people who want to do and teach quant research! Congratulations @uptonorwell.bsky.social !!! 110
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 04/08/2026Does backsliding undermine allied war support? - 4 ctry experiment during the 2026 US–Iran war - US strikes w/o Cong. authorization ⬇️allied publics' support. - Strongest effects for UK w.p. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... w/ @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social @eunajo.bsky.social @kmatush.bsky.social 042
Reposted by Rikio InouyeOmar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 21/05/2026Thrilled this paper is out in the wild! Here’s my earlier thread explaining Text as Behavior: bsky.app/profile/owas... 0163
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/05/2026Thanks for the repost! Definitely was one of the most striking findings - huge divergence btwn what people SAY and what the SHOW. I find similar findings in other conflict related conjoints. But for those looking, here’s the link to the piece out on @isq-jrnl.bsky.social doi.org/10.1093/isq/...doi.orgUnraveling Americans’ Selective Sympathies Toward Israelis and PalestiniansAbstract. Conflicts manifest on two fronts: the battlefield and global public opinion. This study explores how ordinary individuals form sympathies toward 010
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026Grateful for this collaboration. Important divergence between what people "say" matters, and what their actions "show" matters. TLDR: People STRONGLY deny importance of religion in their thinking, but belligerent religion is the MOST consequential attribute for sympathy. doi.org/10.1093/isq/...doi.orgUnraveling Americans’ Selective Sympathies Toward Israelis and PalestiniansAbstract. Conflicts manifest on two fronts: the battlefield and global public opinion. This study explores how ordinary individuals form sympathies toward 010
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/20268/ OA here: t.co/XF07Axvv0Bt.cohttps://academic.oup.com/isq/article/70/2/sqag027/8687393 000
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026/ This paper is also personally meaningful to me. It was my first collaboration with @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social — a collaboration and friendship that genuinely changed the trajectory of my graduate school experience and research agenda. 110
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/20266/ More broadly, the paper argues that modern conflicts unfold on two fronts: • the battlefield • global public opinion Understanding how ordinary people process conflict matters politically and psychologically. 100
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/20265/ We also find fewer partisan and religious divides than many might expect. But racial differences in perceptions of the conflict remained substantial and persistent across studies. 100
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/20264/ Respondents were also highly selective in the information they responded to. People were much more responsive to concerns emphasized by the side they already sympathized with and comparatively unresponsive to the opposing side’s concerns. 100
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/20263/ One finding stood out clearly: Religion consistently emerged as one of the strongest predictors of sympathy and support. Whether actors were described as Jewish or Muslim mattered enormously for sympathy in conflict. 100
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/20262/ We fielded conjoint experiments during the Gaza conflict: • October 2023 (immediately after the ground invasion) • May 2025 Respondents evaluated hypothetical conflict scenarios involving different attributes of the belligerents. 100
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/20261/ We often assume people respond to international conflicts through universal humanitarian concern. But our findings suggest public reactions are also deeply shaped by identity and motivated reasoning. 100
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026New article w/ @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social “Unraveling Americans’ Selective Sympathies Toward Israelis and Palestinians,” is now OA at @isq-jrnl.bsky.social ! Using conjoints fielded during Gaza war, we show motivated reasoning alters how Americans react to info about the conflict. 100
Reposted by Rikio InouyeRyan Brutger @ryanbrutger.bsky.social · 06/05/2026Please help spread the word about these travel grants provided by the @intlcollaboration.bsky.social section of @apsa.bsky.social. 052
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 05/05/2026I’m fear it won’t get better next year. If you’re on the market next year and want to talk / get advice, please reach out. I hope I can pay forward the kindness and support I received! 000
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 23/04/2026Wrong, and deeply unpopular. The public and even local officials are much more supportive of allied migrants compared to non-allied migrants. Cuts across party, ideology, and prior anti-resettlement attitudes. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....papers.ssrn.comFrom Allies to Neighbors: The Impact of Military Service on Support for Refugee ResettlementMany of the largest refugee crises occur in the wake of military withdrawals, yet there is little work on public perceptions of migrants who have assisted in pr 010
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 23/04/2026Deeply wrong, and we show, unpopular. We find strong SUPPORT for allied migrants. Support cuts across parties and moves both public (US and UK) and local/state elites. Allyship abroad generates strong support for resettlement at home. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....papers.ssrn.comFrom Allies to Neighbors: The Impact of Military Service on Support for Refugee ResettlementMany of the largest refugee crises occur in the wake of military withdrawals, yet there is little work on public perceptions of migrants who have assisted in pr 011
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 18/04/2026t.co/oK2erkaZ65t.cohttps://preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/article-details/69d81a634770e67d92c5dc76 000
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 18/04/2026Up in time for #mpsa! Whose lives matter? #AI-generated images allow me to manipulate race of invaded country. Result? Penalty in support for ASIAN and ARAB countries compared to White (and Black!). ~15% ⬇️ in willing. to pay tax to help. Race also biases strategic and material considerations! 141
Reposted by Rikio InouyeOona Hathaway @oonahathaway.bsky.social · 28/02/2026The strikes on Iran are blatantly illegal. I explained in June why the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities were unlawful under US and international law. Everything I wrote then is true today, but this is a far larger assault with far graver consequences. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/23/o...nytimes.comOpinion | Trump’s Strikes on Iran Were Unlawful. Here’s Why That Matters. 421819594
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 28/02/2026And, they also risk the problematic assumption that the strategic or instrumental considerations like "mil capacity" or "threat perception" are independent of identity. I show they are NOT. They are biased by race (see also Búzás 2013). 000
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 28/02/2026Leaving aside important questions about the current lack of Congressional declaration of war, it's worth noting that public opinion continues to be biased by identity. Studies of conflict and war that omit such considerations risk serious #omittedvariablebias. 100
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 28/02/2026Link: rikioinouye.org/research Using multiple survey experiments, respondents impose significant penalties when Asian or Arab countries are invaded, relative to White (and even Black majority countries). These differences persist even when holding constant regime type and strategic context.rikioinouye.orgResearch — Rikio Inouye 100
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 28/02/2026As the US and #Israel engage in #OperationEpicFury at strike #Iran, I'm mindful of how race and religion may shape public support. My JMP shows (all else equal), sharp penalties in support for Asian and Arab countries being invaded, compared to White and Black. (link below) 100
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 28/02/2026Having military officers in these programs dramatically changes, and improves the understanding between the ivory tower and enlisted service members. tragic to see this 000
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 24/02/2026Neat working paper by Bischof et al. that's apparently now conditionally accepted at JOP. TLDR: Social Desireability bias is less of a concern for online survey research than previously thought. osf.io/preprints/os... 010
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/20266/ Future Questions : If rivalry can produce “inadvertent cooperation” (à la Danny Quah), when does competition generate public goods? How do middle powers navigate and extract gains? How sensitive are protect/peel/pressure/preserve strats to leader change and regime type? 010
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/20265/ Key takeaways: Global crises are important arenas for great power competition. Foreign aid can be humanitarian, strategic, or both. My typology helps better characterize how, and can be applied beyond the realm of vax or health diplomacy. 100
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/20264/ The US distribution strategy leans heavily toward: • Protecting high-need countries • Peeling countries away from rivals China’s distribution shows a mix of: • Preserving existing relationships • Pressuring (no vax to Taiwan allies) 100
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/20263/ I analyze US and Chinese vaccine distribution (2021–2022) using: 📊 Cross-national regression 🧠 Bayesian reasoning 🎙️ Original elite interviews 📚 Two in-depth case studies (Paraguay & Nicaragua) 110
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/20262/ I develop a new typology of aid distribution amidst provider competition: • Preserve – reward existing partners • Pressure – punish or coerce those pursuing disfavored policies • Protect – allocate based on health need • Peel – pull states away from rivals 100
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/20261/ The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the importance of health diplomacy during great power rivalry. Given constraints and competing interest, how did the US (under Biden) and China allocate life-saving vaccines? 100
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 20/02/2026Finally out in @isq-jrnl.bsky.social! “Preserve, Pressure, Protect, and Peel: The US–China Rivalry and the Politics of Vaccine Provision” How do great powers decide who gets life-saving aid? Preserve friends? Pressure others? Protect health? Peel fence-sitters? academic.oup.com/isq/article/... 100
Reposted by Rikio InouyeTeam Talarico @teamtalaricohq.bsky.social · 17/02/2026Stephen Colbert SLAMS CBS for not letting James Talarico on Late Night 591739580
Reposted by Rikio InouyeAdam Berinsky @adamberinsky.bsky.social · 16/02/2026I'm teaching a few survey research courses live and online. First, a free one hour seminar. Feb 20 instats.org/seminar/surv... Then a set of two (half) day courses. Not free (sorry!). -Intro Surveys (Feb 26-27): instats.org/seminar/intr... -Advanced Surveys (March 5-6): instats.org/seminar/adva... 12217
Reposted by Rikio InouyeJaweed Kaleem @jaweedkaleem.bsky.social · 14/02/2026NEW: The Trump administration has dropped its appeal of a federal court order blocking its $1.2-billion settlement demand to UCLA over alleged campus civil rights violations: www.latimes.com/california/s...latimes.comTrump administration drops its appeal of court order blocking $1.2-billion UCLA settlementThe Trump administration dropped its appeal of a major higher education case in which a federal judge blocked its $1.2-billion settlement proposal to UCLA over alleged civil rights violations. But it ... 11456177
Reposted by Rikio InouyeOmar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 01/02/2026Two things can be true: we’re a competitive authoritarian state with all sorts of efforts to put a thumb on the scale of who has power AND we have sufficiently free and sufficiently fair elections that every month we see the party in power lose. 271923337
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 19/01/2026Got a fellowship rejection and an interview invite for a different fellowship within minutes of each other. The job market really said: stay humble, stay hopeful, stay glued to your inbox. 000
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 26/11/2025Job market season is such a rollar coaster. Got a game-changing R&R! 030
Reposted by Rikio InouyeTom Pepinsky @tompepinsky.com · 19/11/2025One more piece of evidence that the defining problem of an AI world is not “how do we harness the genius machine?”, it is “how do we contain the lying machine?” 15610
Rikio Inouye @rinouye.bsky.social · 18/11/2025Thank you @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social and @kmatush.bsky.social for an amazing Global Public Opinion workshop! Great scholars and conversations ! Wonderful to see @jkertzer.bsky.social @jonathan-renshon.bsky.social @eunajo.bsky.social too! 010
Reposted by Rikio InouyeJoshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 18/11/2025Congratulations to @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social and @kmatush.bsky.social for the launch of the Global Public Opinion Lab (GPOL) at Florida State! Lots of exciting plans in the works! (I couldn't take any pictures of public opinion, so here's one of Spanish moss) 1112