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Riccardo Fabiani

@ricfabiani.bsky.social
208 followers 501 following 27 posts

Project Director, North Africa at the International Crisis Group.

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Reposted by Riccardo Fabiani
Gordon Gray @ambgordongray.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
@ricfabiani.bsky.social: "Maintaining credible channels with [Rabat & Algiers] could help contain bilateral tensions, limit the Western Sahara dispute’s entanglement in wider rivalries and protect the political space needed for an eventual negotiated settlement." www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
The U.S. and UN Will Need More Patience to Resolve Western Sahara Conflict | International Crisis Group
Talks between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front over Western Sahara have hit a wall, with U.S. and UN representatives pushing for Rabat’s autonomy plan as the centrepiece of negotiation...
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Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 09/10/2026
NEW COMMENTARY | The U.S. and UN Will Need More Patience to Resolve Western Sahara Conflict Talks between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front have hit a wall. If they are to broker a compromise, the mediators will have to slow down.
crisisgroup.org
The U.S. and UN Will Need More Patience to Resolve Western Sahara Conflict | International Crisis Group
Talks between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front over Western Sahara have hit a wall, with U.S. and UN representatives pushing for Rabat’s autonomy plan as the centrepiece of negotiation...
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Reposted by Riccardo Fabiani
Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Illuminating @crisisgroup.org report on where Egypt finds itself in this mess, by Dareen Khalifa, @ricfabiani.bsky.social, and Yasmine Farouk. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
“Strategic Balance” under Stress: Egypt and the U.S.-Israeli War with Iran | International Crisis Group
Egypt has been walking a tightrope since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began, joining mediation efforts while signalling solidarity with Gulf Arab partners under Iranian attack. But with some Gulf ca...
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
My short take on the Madrid talks on Western Sahara www.crisisgroup.org/anb/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
Renewed U.S.-led Talks in Madrid Lend Momentum to Western Sahara Diplomacy, but Big Challenges Remain | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani reports on U.S.-led talks to resolve the conflict over Western Sahara, and the stumbling blocks that lie ahead
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
Unless there is a radical and unpredictable change in the local or international circumstances, the conflict seems to be slowly headed towards a unilateral, partial resolution that risks leaving thousands of refugees stranded and disenfranchised.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
Meanwhile, the Polisario doesn't have a credible strategy to achieve what it wants. Diplomatically, its passivity is only working against its own interests. Militarily, they have no viable options, due to the limits they face in terms of equipment and rules of the game.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
Morocco has strategic patience and will continue to work towards imposing its own solution, with or without the other side. This means signing a deal with another Sahrawi group to end the conflict and/or removing Western Sahara from the UN list of non-self-governing territories.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
That said, the resolution still includes elements of language that are favourable to Morocco. The long-term trend that sees the UN Security Council move closer to Rabat's position is only reinforced.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
The US (and France, for that matters) exhibited a fundamental misunderstanding of the Polisario and Algeria's position, which doomed their policy from the start.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
But, instead of nuancing the language and creating room for the UN envoy to explore what flexibility both sides have and what room for compromise exists, the US went all in with a one-sided approach that was never going to work.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
A wasted opportunity, because the US had leverage over the parties but squandered it by trying to impose autonomy leaving no room to the other side. The idea of linking MINURSO reform to progress was also a way to pressure both parties towards a settlement.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
An honourable compromise, because it avoids upsetting the status quo by overemphasizing the autonomy plan at the expenses of self-determination. It also prolongs the MINURSO for another 12 months, protecting a key safeguard against accidental escalation.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
The draft resolution in blue is already doing the rounds. In short, it's an honourable compromise and a wasted opportunity to achieve progress on Western Sahara.
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Reposted by Riccardo Fabiani
John Peters @johnthejack.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
“I think Trump’s team are overestimating their leverage,” @ricfabiani.bsky.social said. “They believe they can magically broker deals without really understanding the complexities of these conflicts and that they can just impose settlements. It’s a big illusion.” (£) www.thetimes.com/world/africa...
thetimes.com
Is this the next conflict Trump will pledge to solve?
Trump claims to have ended eight wars. Is this his next?
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
The window for diplomacy is narrow: without a coherent U.S.–European strategy and UN leadership, the Western Sahara dispute could slide into renewed regional instability.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
We urge the U.S. to align with the UN, resist unilateralism, and press both Morocco and the Polisario to update and detail their 20-year-old proposals.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Hardliners in Rabat and Washington push to close MINURSO, arguing the conflict is “over”. But removing peacekeepers could trigger direct Morocco–Algeria clashes.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
European capitals back Morocco’s autonomy plan to varying degrees, from France’s full endorsement to Italy’s careful neutrality. Fragmentation weakens Europe’s leverage.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
The UN envoy, Staffan de Mistura, urges negotiations around genuine autonomy and a credible form of self-determination. Only this balance can bridge the gap between Rabat and the Polisario.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Sahrawi frustration is rising in refugee camps as diplomacy stalls. Without credible talks, pressure is mounting for renewed armed struggle.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Trump officials back Morocco’s autonomy plan yet flirt with dismantling MINURSO and branding the Polisario as terrorists, moves that could reignite conflict.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Washington’s renewed interest in Western Sahara offers a rare diplomatic opening, but mixed signals and hardline agendas risk slamming it shut.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Our latest briefing on Western Sahara is out crisisgroup.org/middle-east-... A short thread:
crisisgroup.org
A Window for Diplomacy in Western Sahara | International Crisis Group
The conflict between Morocco and the Algerian-backed Polisario Front in the Western Sahara rages on a half century after it began. The U.S. and Europe must work together so the UN envoy can restart ne...
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Reposted by Riccardo Fabiani
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 02/09/2025
NEW STATEMENT | The World’s Shame in Gaza Israel’s Gaza campaign has entered an even more nightmarish phase. The world must press Israel harder to stop the war, lest its offensive destroy Palestinian life in the strip beyond hope of recovery. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
crisisgroup.org
The World’s Shame in Gaza | International Crisis Group
Israel’s Gaza campaign has entered an even more nightmarish phase. The world must press Israel harder to stop the war regardless of “day after” questions – lest its offensive destroy Palestinian life ...
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Once Western Sahara is removed from the UN list of non-self-governing territories, the legal and diplomatic scaffolding around it collapses. While this move would not end the conflict per se, it would remove a major thorn in the side for Morocco and "normalise" the status quo.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
By acknowledging the autonomy plan as "the only basis" for resolution and recognising Moroccan sovereignty, foreign governments implicitly recognise Western Sahara as Moroccan and, therefore, not a non-self-governing territory.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
These elements of language matter for the future of this conflict. By precluding other options, Morocco is hoping to 1) force Algeria and the Polisario to change position while 2) paving the way for removing Western Sahara from the UN list of non-self-governing territories.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Morocco clearly prefers the latter option, but will settle for the former as long as it indicates an evolution from previous positions. Algeria and the Polisario despise both options, but can live with the former. But this is not just a battle over semantics.
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
- Calling the autonomy plan "the only basis" for conflict resolution - Language adopted by France and the US - Indicates only autonomy is possible and precludes other options - Usually comes with recognition of Moroccan sovereignty - Antagonises Algeria and the Polisario
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
- Calling the autonomy plan "the most serious and credible solution" - Language adopted by the UK, Spain, Portugal - Indicates strong support for the autonomy plan, without precluding other options - Doesn't recognise Moroccan sovereignty - Doesn't antagonise Algeria and FP
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
After yesterday's shift on Western Sahara by Portugal, a helpful reminder to all diplomats and non-diplomats of what the various elements of language on this issue mean and their implications: (A thread)
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Reposted by Riccardo Fabiani
Alastair Tibbs @alastairtibbs.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
𝐔𝐊 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐖𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐒𝐚𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 “𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐦𝐮𝐦” 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 @ricfabiani.bsky.social‬ talks to us in an exclusive interview on the UK's new deal with Morocco Read in our FREE magazine: maghrebi.org?sdm_process_... @martinrjay.bsky.social
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Riccardo Fabiani @ricfabiani.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Another fascinating historical parallel by my great friend and historian Adam Storring engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the...
engelsbergideas.com
The 18th century way of war
At a time of increasing autocratic tendencies and heightened great-power competition, the 18th century provides important lessons from age when it was normal for states to annex territories for the gr...
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Reposted by Riccardo Fabiani
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 29/11/2024
NEW REPORT | Managing Tensions between Algeria and Morocco Since 2021, Algeria and Morocco have been embroiled in a diplomatic crisis, with incidents in Western Sahara and Rabat’s relations with Israel heightening the risk of confrontation. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
crisisgroup.org
Managing Tensions between Algeria and Morocco | Crisis Group
Since 2021, when Algeria cut ties with Morocco, the two neighbours have been at odds. Thus far, their quarrels have largely remained in the diplomatic realm. Western countries should help keep a lid on the disputes until the time is ripe for a rapprochement.
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