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Reverse Enigma

@reverseenigma.bsky.social
173 followers 882 following 137 posts
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
For my next Substack article: a Q&A with the author of one of my favorite recent Sloan papers : deep RL + Shapley for NBA player valuation. Drop any questions you'd want me to ask Link to paper: tinyurl.com/2p9kupez
tinyurl.com
Deep Reinforcement Learning for NBA Player Valuation: A Temporal Difference Approach with Shapley Attribution
We are proud to continue the great tradition of bringing together the leading figures in sports analytics, business, and technology.
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Here is my 26 Draft Board. Unfortunately, no write-up this year, been busy with life.
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Havent posted here in a while. Here is my latest article. open.substack.com/pub/hardscre... My Attempt at trying to Quantify Gravity
open.substack.com
An Incomplete Theory of Gravity
How do you weigh something invisible? A five-step crawl from a rubber band around five players to a neural net — measuring the pull of a shooter, with all the wrong turns kept in.
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
New article out: a broad look at my Top 20 guys for the 2026 draft. hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/early-2026... #NBASKY
hardscreenherald.substack.com
Early 2026 NBA Draft Big Board: Top 20 Prospect Overview
The 2026 NBA draft class is shaping up to be an exciting group, headlined by elite talent across positions.
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
“Everyone runs pick-and-roll and jacks threes.” Kinda… but not really. I clustered team styles from iso/DHO/PnR to transition + O-glass and found 11 distinct identities. Dive in: open.substack.com/pub/hardscre... #NBASKY
open.substack.com
Thirty Teams, Eleven Dialects
Clustering playtypes to decode how each offense speaks
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
New article up: LASER (shooting threat, not just %) + BOOST (team spacing compounding). Top LASER seasons: 2015–16 Curry, 2014–15 Korver, 2024–25 LaVine. Top BOOST teams: 2023–25 Celtics, 2017–18 Rockets, 2016–17 Cavs. Full piece + interactive tables: tinyurl.com/yck7n5u4
tinyurl.com
LASER: A Metric for Capturing Shooting Threat and Spacing
Why 3-Point Percentage Falls Short as a Threat Metric
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Just published: a deep dive into my player style clustering tool. From Dragic’s 2014 breakout to Giannis’s one-of-one profile, from OKC’s balance to the Lakers’ gaps - mapping the NBA by how guys actually play. Shoutout @gabriel1200.bsky.social for hosting the tool. tinyurl.com/2p9rp8wm #NBASKY
open.substack.com
From Dragic to Giannis: A Data-Driven Map of NBA Play Styles
Clustering player seasons shows who plays alike, and what teams are missing
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
Just dropped the new Shot-Making Model 2.0 - now covering 1996–2025 with play-by-play data, arena bias fixes, and era adjustments. Curry ‘16 is still untouchable, KD has multiple all-time seasons, and some hidden gems pop up too. 🔗 hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/shot-quali... #NBAKSY
hardscreenherald.substack.com
Shot Quality in High Definition: The Play-by-Play Upgrade
Recap: The Old Tracking-Based Model (Bins and Baselines)
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Gonna finish the write up on shotquality model v2 soon. This version goes back to the 96-97 season, and should be more comprehensive. Here are the top guys from that season
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Gabriel Guzman @gabriel1200.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
New release for #NBAKSY, just in time for your morning coffee. courtsketch.com/shotmaking This is CourtSketchs's shotmaking page. Based upon @reverseenigma.bsky.social 's modeling work, it allows you to assess player shotmaking relative to shot quality for any player season over the last 12 years.🧵
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
New article on trying to measure Shotmaking and Shot Quality open.substack.com/pub/hardscre... The data will be available soon on nbavisuals.com
open.substack.com
Beyond the Box Score: How Good Are You Really At Making Shots
Who actually adds points once you account for the kinds of shots they take?
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 17/08/2025
New piece is up: on Tyrese Haliburton, the echoes of John Stockton, and why he feels so different from other stars. Tyrese Haliburton: The Modern Stockton – Master of the Advantage open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
open.substack.com
Tyrese Haliburton: The Modern Stockton – Master of the Advantage
Tyrese Haliburton doesn’t attack you so much as he takes what you give him.
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
Just launched my Substack 🏀 First piece dives into the NBA CBA - what the first/second apron rules actually do, the panic they’ve caused, and why some of the loudest fears are a bit overblown. open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
open.substack.com
The New NBA CBA: Panic, Reality, and the Game Behind the Rules
Separating Fact from Fiction
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
Inspired by @iztokfranko.bsky.social latest post, wanted to see how the western conference teams looked broken down using the clusters from nbavisuals.com/player_style Cluster names still need some work.
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Iztok Franko @iztokfranko.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
How are the top 10 teams in the West really built? I ran a clustering model on 300+ players to break down offensive archetypes. And reveal strengths, gaps, and roster building shifts from last season. Lakers, Mavs, Nuggets, OKC, Rockets... all included👇 digginbasketball.substack.com/p/nba-west-p...
digginbasketball.substack.com
How the West Is Built
A data-driven look at player archetypes for the top 10 Western Conference contenders including the Lakers and Mavericks
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Gabriel Guzman @gabriel1200.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
New feature out! This is Court Sketches's playlist tool. Give it any team, player and date range combination across the last 5 seasons, and it will serve you a stylized playlist of filterable clips, one you can share with the click of a button. Let me know what you think! nbavisuals.com/playlist
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
The draft cycle continues. Very early look at my board for 2026. Should be a fun class
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Some second round steals I loved: Charlotte: Sion James and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Hornets grab the draft’s most NBA ready rim protector plus a connective wing who moves the ball and defends. Nice mix of spacing and interior presence. Been a while since I thought Charlotte nailed the draft. Good change
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Some of my favorite draft fits so far: Cedric Coward to Memphis is pretty seamless. With Bane gone they needed a rangy wing who can spot up, cut, and guard 1-3.
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Fun first day of the draft! Wild and sometimes baffling choices all over. Twenty-six of my top 30 prospects are gone. Here are the four still waiting:
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Final draft board is set. More movement than expected: some late risers, a few tough drops. Took a step back to reassess the big picture. Tried to balance film, data, and role projection, and especially who I trust to earn a second contract in the new CBA. 🔗 docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
docs.google.com
NBA Big Board 2025
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Gabriel Guzman @gabriel1200.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
New tool out, in collaboration with Owen Phillips of the f5! This is our League Rankings tool. Based on a graphic from a recent f5 piece, it allows you to select up to 80+ stats, and see where every team ranked in that stat for the past 12 nba seasons. nbavisuals.com/leagueranks Lmk what you think!
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 14/06/2025
With the new CBA, it’s even more vital for teams to find contributors on cost-controlled deals. We’ve seen guys like Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jaylen Wells carve out early roles. Here are some 2025 prospects outside the top 30 who I think could do the same. 🔗 www.rookiescale.com/2025-consens...
rookiescale.com
2025 NBA Draft Consensus Big Board - Rookie Scale
Weighted aggregation of mainstream and #DraftTwitter big boards and mock drafts.
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Some rambling thoughts on Tyrese Haliburton and why he feels so different from your typical star guard 🧵
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Shamit Dua @fearthebrown.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
Some thoughts on 18 guys who I think might have a chance to be useful for the teams that draft them. intheno.substack.com/p/18-prospec...
intheno.substack.com
18 Prospects Who Might Become Something
The NBA draft is endlessly fascinating for fans, analysts, and executives alike.
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
Everyone talks about Collin Murray-Boyles’ jumper like it’s the big swing skill. But I think that misses the point. His path to NBA value for me isn’t about turning into a shooter: it’s about tightening his handle, improving his finishing, and expanding his scoring craft.
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
Updated my 2025 NBA Draft Big Board: now a full Top 100. It blends film-based scouting with a machine learning model projecting 5-year EPM. 45+ full reports linked, with tiers, roles, swing skills, and outcome comps. Check it out: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... Feedback welcome.
docs.google.com
NBA Big Board 2025
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 25/05/2025
📝 Just dropped my 2025 NBA Draft Big Board. Every prospect is tiered, with projected roles, swing skills, and NBA outcome ranges (low/median/high). Click any name for a full scouting report. Check it out here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... Open for feedback or debate.
docs.google.com
NBA Big Board 2025
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
@iztokfranko.bsky.social think I found the funniest group of player comps for a player so far. Any guesses on what’s being captured
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Just shared my NBA Big Board featuring my top 60 prospects! Dive into insights on their projected roles, swing skills, and comps ranging from low median to high. Open to any feedback or questions! docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
docs.google.com
NBA BIg Board 2025
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Pre-Tournament Board
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
Nba Big Board 2025 v5. This time with tiers
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
NBA Big Board 2025 V4
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Been a wild few days. But now. It’s time. Let’s start looking at who can fit with the Mavs in this coming draft
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
NBA Big Board 2025 V3
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NPR @npr.org · 28/01/2025
Building Legos with my family helped me realize that sometimes I was the foundation, and that even though I felt hidden or overshadowed, that it was still important to fulfill my purpose.
npr.org
How Legos helped me rebuild my foundation
Building Legos with my family helped me realize that sometimes I was the foundation, and that even though I felt hidden or overshadowed, that it was still important to fulfill my purpose.
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Ari'sArtAccount (Comms CLOSED) @ariartaccount.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
They're good masks, I recommend! #BIONICLE
Me wearing a model of the Kanohi Ignika, made by @crosswiredcrafts
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
🚨 NEW TOOL FOR NBA FANS! 🚨 Ever wonder who plays like LeBron? 🐐 Who could fill a gap on your team? 🤔 Find player comps, style clusters, and play type breakdowns for ANY player. Here’s LeBron’s analysis: nbavisuals.com/player_style
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
@timcato.bsky.social @bobbykaralla.bsky.social listened to the recent emergency pod and wanted to find who the most similar players to Dereck Lively were. Limited to players who played at least 12mpg, and 15 games this season. Looks like Goga is the best bet, and has probably not available.
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
With all the discussion about NBA teams playing the same way, I wanted to use the data that's publicly available to try and cluster teams based on playstyle. Here is a attempt using the season data so far. Grateful to @sethpartnow.bsky.social for his advice.
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Reverse Enigma @reverseenigma.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
@samvecenie.bsky.social listening to the recent Game Theory Pod, got curious who the player comp for Aaron Wiggins is. Buddy Hield would have never been in my guesses
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