Sign in

René Duba 🅿️

@reneduba.bsky.social
3.2K followers 4.9K following 948 posts

Conflict analyst 🅿️ (parked here) Chat = not used

PostsRepliesMedia
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Yabloko was the only Russian party that campaigned for peace with Ukraine. It was removed from the ballot. Local representatives arrested on fabricated charges. What should that tell Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about Putin's assurance he wants peace? BBC: 1/2
1112
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
After the 1980s most NATO countries spent less and less on defence. What does that tell us about Putin's tale of aggressive 'NATO expansion' threatening Russia? The story doesn't match the numbers.
183
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
😎 Soldiers of SIGNUM battalion, in cooperation with the allied units, destroyed the enemy MLRS "Uragan" worth about $1,000,000
826429
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
🔥 On August 24, Magyar reported on a successful strike on the base of the Russian special forces SOBR in Strilkovo, Kherson region. ☠️ Police Lieutenant Colonel Lyubov Ponomareva, officer for especially important cases, who had recently served in Russian Guard as part of SOBR, was eliminated.
720225
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
💀 Major Sergei Sergeevich Sechkov was allegedly liquidated yesterday in St. Petersburg, - Russian channels
521828
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
🔥 Operators of the 1st separate SBS center, together with other components of AFU, struck Yaroslavl refinery "Slavneft-YANOS". ⚠️The distance to the target is more than 700 km from the state border of Ukraine.
116919
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 28/08/2026
Ukraine's SOF confirmed the strike on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in Yaroslavl, describing it as one of Russia's five largest refining facilities. A fire was recorded at the site and the extent of the damage is still being assessed. The refinery has capacity of 15 million tons of oil per year.
325529
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 28/08/2026
⚡️Ukrainian drones target Moscow, one of Russia's largest oil refineries in Yaroslavl, sparking fire, media reports. The latest attack marked the eighth on the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in 2026, which has been targeted repeatedly in previous Ukrainian attacks.
kyivindependent.com
Ukrainian drones target Moscow, one of Russia's largest oil refineries in Yaroslavl, sparking fire, media reports
The latest attack marked the eighth on the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in 2026, which has been targeted repeatedly in previous Ukrainian attacks, including on Aug. 6, July 16, July 6, May 22, May 8, April...
337860
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
🇺🇦🔥 Zelensky: AFU hit an oil refinery in the Yaroslavl region. The distance is 1000 kilometers from the front line. There were also our fair responses to Russian war in the Black Sea. ✈️⚡️ In Engels, soldiers of SBU "Alpha" hit a TU-95MS missile carrier.
324329
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Predicting Putin Apart from Putin's common character flaws that are discussed often (see: chat.mistral.ai/chat/6420746... ), I'd like to point out a few other ones that are quite decisive: 1/2
chat.mistral.ai
Nieuw gesprek
Vibe (formerly Le Chat) is your AI agent for work and code.
151
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
People who don't believe Russia is considering an attack on a NATO country often use the argument that this would overextend Russia's military forces, which wouldn't be rational. Some questions here: 1. Adding things up, does Putin qualify as a rational actor? 2. Could ... 1/ 2. 1/2
161
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 11/08/2026
DniproOsint satellite imagery shows damage at Russian military unit 51532 in Molkino, Krasnodar Krai, home to the GRU’s 10th Special Purpose Brigade. A fire was recorded on the base on July 30. Satellite imagery of the site shows one tented hangar destroyed. #Russia
428527
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
🛳️ On the night of August 7, a ship was "sunk" in the Black Sea, near Novorossiysk, - Exilenova The "official" Russian authorities did not report any sunken ships. It is possible that the ship was transporting military cargo.
330247
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
‼️👀 Forced mobilization has begun in Omsk, following Penza and Ulyanovsk, - Ostorozhno Novosti
829479
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
✈️💥 Powerful explosion occurred near the Saki airfield in Novofedorivka (Crimea)
116716
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
🔥 Orsk oil refinery after morning attack in Orenburg region.
224520
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
If reality was the way Putin wanted it, would the Kremlin still lie? The Soviet Union used to boast about reality if they liked it. They lied if they didn't. Is Putin much different?
060
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
On Russian survival More than 30 000 Russian soldiers p/month get hit so badly on the frontline that they either die or cannot continue to fight. There are (30.5*24*60)=43920 minutes in a month. So, Russian soldiers have 1.46 minutes of being exposed before being taken out. 1/
140
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Recommended read by professor Bonk:
open.substack.com
Ukraine Solved Russia’s Biggest Problem
Ukrainians wrote reviews on cardboard. Russian war channels wrote on Telegram. They agreed on Mykhailo Fedorov, and that is the tragedy.
010
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Can the US regain the trust lost by Trump? Will the world trust the US again with a new president who makes more sense? Probably not. Why? We will remember that in the US a majority could be rallied around a full and blatant disregard of reality, the veneration of lies even.
191
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Worldwide, the number of days with a high risk of large scale wildfires has doubled The Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute warns about climate changes that increase the risks of wildfires, they talk about large numbers, large areas and decades. www.knmi.nl/over-het... 1/2
133
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
To Saint Peter: please do let the man in. He supported Ukraine and that's quite enough.
031
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
The shadow fleet consists of aging vessels lacks protective double hulls around their bunker tanks (containing heavy fuel oil and diesel). These are highly vulnerable to ruptures and fires in the event of military strikes. Fires may well extend to damage the engine room.
061
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Why does Ukraine attack the bridge and/or engine room of a Shadow Fleet tanker? The engine is the most valuable part of these ships. A damaged hull can still be repaired if the damage is limited, but without a functioning engine, the ship is scrapped.
0164
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
I highly recommend this article by Adam Kinzinger:
open.substack.com
Arming The Bad Guys. Starving Our Allies.
From Turkey to Ukraine, the pattern is becoming impossible to ignore.
041
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Title: "Spain Prepares Military Rearmament Plan Amid Trump’s Threats" Spain stresses that it is also one of the most active contributors to NATO tasks outside of its own borders.
militarnyi.com
Spain Prepares Military Rearmament Plan Amid Trump's Threats
The Ministry of Defence of Spain is preparing a large-scale military rearmament plan that will include 15 new procurement and modernization programs.Spain’s Defence Minister, Margarita Robles, revealed the plan in […]
342
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
I found a question that AI can't deal with easily: "What was Dr. House's role in the Treaty of Westphalia?" I tried Google AI, Grok, Le Chat, ChatGPT. They all get lost in the Treaty of Westphalia (1648). Some even mention that actor Hugh Laurie wasn't alive back then. 1/2
120
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
How will Russia fare without logistics? Let's remember World War 2: 1. Forced Expansionist Strategies: The Reich's chronic lack of oil dictated high-risk campaigns into North Africa and the Soviet Union to obtain oil. By themselves, neither were a strategist's first choice. 1/5
American B26
4133
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
🚀 Consequences of the attack by cruise missiles on the plant of JSC "VZPP-S" (Voronezh Plant of Semiconductor Devices), - Exilenova Officially stated about 5 dead. At the time of the strike, there was no evacuation of workers.
214610
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
Igor Sushko @igorsushko.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Russia Gas station masquerading as a country has run out of gas.
721438
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
Igor Sushko @igorsushko.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
💥 Russia: Ukraine struck the Kstovo Oil Refinery in Nizhny Novgorod region, 800 km away. Annual capacity 17 million tons, 6% of Russia's total output of refined petroleum products. Produced 11% of Russia's gasoline. 1/3 of the gas produced went to Moscow.
523539
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Recommended article by Timothy Snyder. What if the intent of ethnic cleansing can be proven along the lines suggested in this article? What if Trump's and Vance's preparatory work indeed lead to a pogrom in Springfield?
open.substack.com
Ethnic Cleansing in Ohio?
Nazi Lies in Vance's America
041
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Extreme Russian nationalists like Alexey Zhuravlyov threaten to annihilate Finland, bomb half of it or claim that other countries bordering Russia are "historic Russian grounds". Why do you think that this ideation gets a certain level of popular support in Russia?
110
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
The Ukrainian Review @theukrainianreview.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
🔥 And new footage from Slavyansk oil refinery!
329632
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
Darkzilla🏴‍☠️⚔️🍷🇺🇦✊🏻🇩🇰🍉🐎 @zillathetrill.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
UK firms design cheaper alternatives to Storm Shadow missile www.thetimes.com/article/fe0a...
thetimes.com
UK firms design cheaper alternatives to Storm Shadow missile
The new weapons, which have been test-fired in the Hebrides, do not rely on US components and can be produced quickly and in large numbers for Ukraine
033
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Alexandra Prokopenko argues that Putin's system is in a state of "slow implosion" caused by overspending on his war, financed by Russian society as a whole, except those few rich Russians who could safeguard their money in third countries. www.foreignaffairs.c... 1/4
foreignaffairs.com
Putin’s Unsustainable Spending Spree
The war in Ukraine will overheat the Russian economy.
183
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
Валера | Valera @valerair.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
For the fourth time in history, Polish people like the neonazi Karol Nawrocki are leading Poland to be concurred, occupied and controlled by Moscow. Once again. If Ukrainans fall, most Poles living in Poland...
131
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Alexandra Prokopenko argues that Putin's system is in a state of "slow implosion" caused by overspending on his war, financed by Russian society as a whole, except those few rich Russians who could safeguard their money in third countries. www.foreignaffairs.c... 1/4
foreignaffairs.com
Putin’s Unsustainable Spending Spree
The war in Ukraine will overheat the Russian economy.
183
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
When IR meets gas molecules in the atmosphere such as CO2 or methane, it converts to thermal heat, which warms water droplets in the clouds, it transfers to the oceans, it radiates back to Earth, it rises through convection and radiates into space. A surplus leads to warming. 1/
120
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 14/06/2026
⚡️Ukraine reportedly strikes chemical plant in Russia's Tula Oblast. Ukraine struck a chemical plant in Russia's Tula Oblast overnight on June 14, social media channels reported.
kyivindependent.com
Ukraine reportedly strikes chemical plant in Russia's Tula Oblast
Ukraine struck a chemical plant in Russia's Tula Oblast overnight on June 14, social media channels reported.
846969
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
A question for Bulgaria: freedom of religion or freedom for a corrupt religious leader who promotes crimes against humanity?
130
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Technology has turned Putin into prey. Russia’s gigantic military is slowly losing to Ukraine. Russia’s economy is being decimated as Ukraine’s $500 drones destroy millions of value. On the front line 325,000 Russians have been killed just since February.
kyivpost.com
Putin’s Worst Nightmare
Russia has moved rapidly to counteract the possibility that Western AI could locate Putin.
020
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
CBS News mentions that Russia is running out of S-300 air defence systems. The S-300 is the mainstay of Russian air defence and is being systematically targeted by Ukraine that thus obtains air superiority over Russia for its drone attacks.
cbsnews.com
Ukraine's deep strikes leaving Russia short on air defense missiles, possibly at an "unsustainable rate"
Ukraine intelligence indicates the country's stepped up drone strikes are forcing Russia to burn through interceptor missiles, possibly faster than it can build new ones.
074
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Russia teetering on the edge, in slow motion collapse, or falling already... Ukraine winning militarily, winning diplomatically.
040
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
🔥 This is how the attack on the electric substation in Krasnoperekopsk (Crimea) took place last night. There was a fire, there was no electricity in the city for an hour and a half.
427028
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
VERY BIG TOP NEWS TODAY 🔝 😎 SBU strikes Tamannaftogas, a key hydrocarbon transshipment complex in southern Russia 🔥 SBS hit the largest giant plant in Eastern Europe in Armyansk, currently owned by "Russian Titan", that produces titanium dioxide. 1/3
430045
René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Great summary of Putin's delusions:
040
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
🔥 Fire in Kalinovka, Volgograd Oblast, Russia. Oil Processing and Pumping Plant, - Falcon Insight
021025
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 13/06/2026
Ukraine’s SBU struck the Tamanneftegaz oil and gas terminal in Russia’s Krasnodar region overnight. The SBU says Alpha units worked with SSO and HUR, hitting 5 fuel tanks and 2 oil loading arms. #Russia
128630
Reposted by René Duba 🅿️
Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Hungary has signalled it will drop its long-standing opposition to Ukraine’s bid for EU membership, allowing it and Moldova to begin formal negotiations to join the bloc in the coming days, four diplomats told POLITICO.
politico.eu
Ukraine and Moldova on course to start formal EU membership talks in June
Hungarian officials have signaled they intend to drop their opposition to Ukraine’s EU membership bid, diplomats told POLITICO.
201115327