iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

No. The Russian problem is that many of their cracking towers have been destroyed. So the can go on producing diesel and gasoline by destillation, but that leaves large amounts of heavy oil that should be fed to cracking installations elsewhere: i.e. a transport problem. 2/2

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According to Ukraine's estimates Russian refining capacity has gone down by 45%. Western estimates vary between 25-40% Diesel specifically is down by 30%, gasoline by 20% but that is based on data from June 2025 compared to June 2026. Is that all? 1/2

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Putin bore responsibillity for the murder of: Ernst Zimmermann (German), Edward Pimental (American), Frank Scarton (American), Becky Bristol (American), Karl Heinz Beckurts (German), Eckhard Groppler (German), Gerold von Braunmühl (German), Alfred Herrhausen (German). 4/4

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Is this relevant to predicting Vladimir Putin's present behaviour? Yes, it is. People tend to continue doing what they always did. Putin set up sabotage in the west during the late eighties and he does the same thing nowadays. Specifically, back in the eighties? 3/4

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Did Vladimir Putin support anti-Western terrorists as a young KGB officer?

The DDR provided a safe haven to terrorists who feared that West German police or intelligence had sniffed them out. At the same time a new generation of terrorists continued their acts of sabotage with the KGB's help. www.politico.eu/arti... 2/4

politico.eu

Putin has sworn his time as a KGB officer in Dresden was uneventful. There’s a lot of reason to doubt that claim.

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René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Rote Armee Fraktion / Baader-Meinhof gang were the footsoldiers of the KGB and the Stasi committing murder and acts of sabotage in West Germany. They were provided military equipment, guns and money by the KGB's station in Dresden where Putin was their contact. 1/4

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We know however that the upward 'bump' around 2010 (starting in 2000) in US military spending had to do with the war on terror, Iraq, Afghanistan and we know that this spending was real and substantial. But yes, the DOD is being overcharged by US defence contractors.

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René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Yabloko candidate Grigory Grishin was accused of "extremism" because of having mentioned the name "Navalny" in the past. What more does the WH need? Blindfolds? Earplugs? Remember the tobacco executives who testified that they believed nicotine was not addictive? (1994) 2/2

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René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Yabloko was the only Russian party that campaigned for peace with Ukraine. It was removed from the ballot. Local representatives arrested on fabricated charges. What should that tell Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about Putin's assurance he wants peace? BBC: 1/2

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René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

After the 1980s most NATO countries spent less and less on defence. What does that tell us about Putin's tale of aggressive 'NATO expansion' threatening Russia? The story doesn't match the numbers.

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MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

😎 Soldiers of SIGNUM battalion, in cooperation with the allied units, destroyed the enemy MLRS "Uragan" worth about $1,000,000

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MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

🔥 On August 24, Magyar reported on a successful strike on the base of the Russian special forces SOBR in Strilkovo, Kherson region. ☠️ Police Lieutenant Colonel Lyubov Ponomareva, officer for especially important cases, who had recently served in Russian Guard as part of SOBR, was eliminated.

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René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Now they have two training Tu-95s...

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MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

💀 Major Sergei Sergeevich Sechkov was allegedly liquidated yesterday in St. Petersburg, - Russian channels

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MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

🔥 Operators of the 1st separate SBS center, together with other components of AFU, struck Yaroslavl refinery "Slavneft-YANOS". ⚠️The distance to the target is more than 700 km from the state border of Ukraine.

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 28/08/2026

Ukraine's SOF confirmed the strike on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in Yaroslavl, describing it as one of Russia's five largest refining facilities. A fire was recorded at the site and the extent of the damage is still being assessed. The refinery has capacity of 15 million tons of oil per year.

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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 28/08/2026

⚡️Ukrainian drones target Moscow, one of Russia's largest oil refineries in Yaroslavl, sparking fire, media reports. The latest attack marked the eighth on the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in 2026, which has been targeted repeatedly in previous Ukrainian attacks.

kyivindependent.com

Ukrainian drones target Moscow, one of Russia's largest oil refineries in Yaroslavl, sparking fire, media reports

The latest attack marked the eighth on the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in 2026, which has been targeted repeatedly in previous Ukrainian attacks, including on Aug. 6, July 16, July 6, May 22, May 8, April...

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MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

🇺🇦🔥 Zelensky: AFU hit an oil refinery in the Yaroslavl region. The distance is 1000 kilometers from the front line. There were also our fair responses to Russian war in the Black Sea. ✈️⚡️ In Engels, soldiers of SBU "Alpha" hit a TU-95MS missile carrier.

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René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

1. Putin always escalates (or he seemingly withdraws and then escalates later on, like during the Chechen wars). 2. Opportunism reigns. 3. Always takes revenge for disloyalty 4. he portrays himself as rational, but he isn't 5. has a preference for legalistic frameworks 2/2

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René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Predicting Putin Apart from Putin's common character flaws that are discussed often (see: chat.mistral.ai/chat/6420746... ), I'd like to point out a few other ones that are quite decisive: 1/2

chat.mistral.ai

Nieuw gesprek

Vibe (formerly Le Chat) is your AI agent for work and code.

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René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Could there be some advantage for Putin in creating a false flag incident involving a NATO country? 3. If Russia could call up 2 million reservists and 30-40 million men of fighting age in a general mobilisation, how overextended is Russia's military really? 2/2

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René Duba 🅿️ @reneduba.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

People who don't believe Russia is considering an attack on a NATO country often use the argument that this would overextend Russia's military forces, which wouldn't be rational. Some questions here: 1. Adding things up, does Putin qualify as a rational actor? 2. Could ... 1/ 2. 1/2

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 11/08/2026

DniproOsint satellite imagery shows damage at Russian military unit 51532 in Molkino, Krasnodar Krai, home to the GRU’s 10th Special Purpose Brigade. A fire was recorded on the base on July 30. Satellite imagery of the site shows one tented hangar destroyed. #Russia

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🛳️ On the night of August 7, a ship was "sunk" in the Black Sea, near Novorossiysk, - Exilenova The "official" Russian authorities did not report any sunken ships. It is possible that the ship was transporting military cargo.

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‼️👀 Forced mobilization has begun in Omsk, following Penza and Ulyanovsk, - Ostorozhno Novosti

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✈️💥 Powerful explosion occurred near the Saki airfield in Novofedorivka (Crimea)

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🔥 Orsk oil refinery after morning attack in Orenburg region.

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It also goes for 'true believers' of any kind. Communists were famous for the very same excesses as fascists.

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Loomer apparently had an (underused) extra check: believe it if you can see it. She started to use that extra reality check. Then she changed her mind. Good journalists have many more reality checks, check for first hand sources, check for consistency, check for evidence... 2/2

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Basically, some people have a reality strategy that is very simple: they believe what they hear to be claimed as true. Some have a limitation: only believe as true if you hear it from someone you trust, or from a peer group or someone who is similar to you in terms of mindset. 1/2

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