iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

That's not entirely clear actually. The effect on atmospheric circulation and wind patterns is dominated by temperature differences. So relative may actually forecast that better. But the effect on precipitation and atmospheric water vapor probably follows the absolute value better.

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Though global warming is certainly contributing to the severity of this El Niño, especially when measured against historical temperature benchmarks, the current event is still a beast on its own terms. Forecasts have it crushing all past records. h/t @zekehausfather.com

Time series of historical and forecast Oceanic Nino Index for the current El Niño and historical events. Not adjusted for mean ocean warming.

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The ocean as a whole has warmed almost 1 °C over the last 50 years.

Time series of August monthly averages of ocean mean temperature since 1850.

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Temperatures in the Central Pacific El Niño region are the hottest ever measured (top panel), and far above any other El Niño at this time of year. But, if you adjust for the warming of the global ocean, the current trajectory is not so different from other very strong events.

Two panel plot showing daily time series of temperature anomalies in the Central Pacific Nino3.4 region during the last four strongest El Niño events without and with correction for changes in global ocean mean temperature.

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There are times when I am glad that I don't work for either the government nor a public university.

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There is something extra annoying about finding a government "open data" portal that has exactly the data you're looking for and then discovering that only nationals of that country are actually able to use it.

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I mean "independently?" in the sense that I don't know if the agent itself was responsible for deciding who to email and what to discuss, or if a human was telling it specifically who to write and what topic to discuss. The former is more of an escalation for spam than the latter.

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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

So this is the future, huh? An AI Agent emailed me (independently?) to share the results of their research.

Screenshot from an email purportedly sense by an AI Agent describing their analysis of OISST daily temperature changes. The email address and two URLs have been masked for privacy / safety.

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This is what a monster El Niño on an ocean already warmed by climate change looks like.

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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Berkeley Earth will be holding our monthly climate briefing on Thursday. Safe to say that there is a lot going on with weather and climate the moment. 8 AM PT / 11 AM ET / 5 PM CET It is geared towards the media, but anyone is welcome. us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Press briefing announcement cover image.

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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Trump's strategy for reducing global oil use wasn't what I would have recommended, but it does seem to be effective.

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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

This year produced the hottest summer in the history of modern France. Some of that record is down to the specific weather patterns that occurred this year, but global warming deserves a large share of the credit for generally making French summers hotter over time.

Time series plot of June to August national mean temperature anomalies for France. Shown relative to the 1850-1900 average. Data from Berkeley Earth.

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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

We don't have any funding for building warning systems and raising money to build and sustain such things is often quite hard in general, especially when the target is an event type that occurs very rarely. Its not a good idea, but its also not easy to accomplish.

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I once had a prominent spelling mistake in a video that went viral to millions.

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Not that I recall this week, though "grifter" and similar themes were certainly represented, even if not that specific slur.

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This site is practically boring. I posted a whole thread related to climate and have yet to be called a retard, moron, clown, grifter, or "slimy MF".

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As far as I'm aware they don't know. The failure of the land and ice were contemporaneous, but whether the rock slope failed first and brought down the ice, or the ice failed first and the shifting weight triggered a larger landslide isn't resolved as far as I know.

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All landslides involve an interplay of complex factors Glaciologists and geologists will work to pin down the details, but melting is known to make events like this more likely, and given the circumstances it would be surprising if global warming wasn't a factor here. 19/19

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The shifting weight of the glacier, permafrost thawing, and meltwater intrusion are all ways that a melting glacier can contribute to a failure of the underlying rock. We don't yet have proof of such connections in this case, but it would be surprising if glacier melting wasn't involved. 18/

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Was the tragedy in Nepal and Tibet due, in part, to climate change? My view is probably yes. The connection remains circumstantial and lacks a smoking gun, but the circumstances certainly make it seem likely. 17/

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Nepal floods death toll climbs to 1,252 as rescue efforts continue

The resulting pulverized ice, rock, and water raced through the river valleys, gathering additional water along the way, and completely destroyed many low lying settlements in Nepal and Tibet. At least 1,250 people died, while 4,200 officially remain missing. abcnews.com/Internationa... 16/

abcnews.com

An additional 4,216 people were believed to still be missing, officials said.

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A huge block of ice and rock, covering an area of roughly ~1 km², immediately slid ~1200 m down the mountain gathering speed and energy. After entering the local river valleys the debris flow would descend a further 1200 vertical meters before destroying Gyirong Port. bsky.app/profile/raro... 15/

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Landslide Along With Glacial Collapse Likely Set Off Nepal Flooding, Scientists Say (Gift Article)

The ultimate failure was utterly massive, generating seismic waves equivalent to a magnitude 5.2 earthquake. Based on the energy released, it was estimated that ~400 million tonnes of material came down. nytimes.com/2026/08/27/w... 14/

nytimes.com

New satellite imagery added to scientists’ understanding of the events that precipitated the deadly flooding in Nepal and Tibet.

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Isro's Nisar sent clear warning signs before deadly Nepal ice-rock avalanche

A post-collapse review of synthetic aperture radar satellite data showed apparent glacier acceleration and multiple meters of deformation in the upper slope during the weeks before the catastrophic failure. www.indiatoday.in/science/stor... 13/

indiatoday.in

Nisar radar data recorded marked deformation on a Nepal-Tibet Himalayan slope before the 2026 ice-rock avalanche. The observations highlight the potential for cross-border satellite monitoring to supp...

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Post-event photos suggest that the ice and rock failed close to the top of the existing slope. If much of the rock and ice remained solid until the point of failure, then the top of the slope would likely have the greatest stresses. bsky.app/profile/andy... 12/

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Meltwater and higher temperatures can also cause permafrost to thaw. At elevations like this, where annual average temperatures are well below freezing, permafrost often plays a role in sealing cracks and reinforcing the underlying rock. Thus thawing can weaken the rock. 11/

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Melting glaciers on a steep slope will thin and weaken, and become more prone to fracture and collapse. They also produce water that can seep into cracks in the ground and lubricate the ice-rock interface. 10/

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Now what does this have to do with the failure and landslide? We don't yet know whether the ice failed first and brought rock down with it, or if the rock failed first and brought down the glacier. But the glacier had likely been changing in response to a warming climate. 9/

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This is consistent with other studies of the Langtang catchment. The glaciers in this region have been gradually shrinking since the Little Ice Age, but that melting has accelerated recently. sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 8/

sciencedirect.com

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Melting degree days provide us a way to crudely convert the temperature changes into an estimate of how much melting to expect. We find annual melting at 5200 m likely doubled from the mid 20th century to the early 21st century, with 2024 and 2025 almost double again. 7/

Estimate of annual melting degree days at the location of the Nepali glacier collapse.

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Given the warming trend, this Nepali glacier had probably been thinning and weakening for years, or even decades. But it ultimately failed during the warmest week in one of its warmest years on record. It would be a hell of a coincidence if global warming wasn't at least partially to blame. 6/

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Applying a 6-day moving average makes the final heatwave standout more clearly. The period directly before the collapse was the hottest such period in 2026, and near the hottest such period ever observed at this site. 5/

Wrapped time series of estimated summer (Jun-Aug) daily mean temperatures at the Nepali glacier collapse site, after applying a 6-day moving average.

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Summer 2026 is estimated to have been 4th warmest on record for this Nepali glacier, behind 2024, 2025, and 2022. In addition, the collapse occurred at the end of a 6-day heatwave that featured several of the warmest August days on record. 4/

Wrapped time series of estimated summer (Jun-Aug) daily mean temperatures at the Nepali glacier collapse site.

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The collapsed glacier site was historically not far from the melting threshold in summer with only a short period of summer melting expected. Unfortunately, global warming has greatly expanded the duration and intensity of summer melt in this region at 5200m elevation. 3/

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I will be using ERA5 Reanalysis but specifically bias corrected for both elevation & seasonality with a network of high-elevation weather stations from the southern Himalayas. Doing that we find that the mean summer temperature at this site had been climbing for decades. 2/

Time series of summer average temperatures (June-August) estimated at the Nepali glacier collapse site using ERA5 data bias corrected with high-elevation weather stations.

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