iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Unbelievable, how much cruise ship regulation is deteriorating in Alaska ... www.juneauindependent.com/post/state-c...

Two Democratic Juneau state lawmakers who are members of the finance committees in their respective chambers — Rep. Sara Hannan and Sen. Jesse Kiehl — told the Juneau Independent on Monday the change to the inspection schedule came as a surprise since there was no mention of that possibility during budget discussions at the Alaska State Capitol during the past session.
"In fact, when I started hearing rumors about existing inspections getting dismantled I looked back to make sure I hadn’t missed anything in the budget process," Kiehl stated in an email. "I had not. The budget request was status quo, so this new radical reduction raises serious questions about what the Dunleavy administration plans to do with the money they asked the legislature for."

RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

A perceptive, short article (including some statements by @kevinclimate.bsky.social ), on a newly published study by others. www.theguardian.com/environment/... A key point here:

“Yet strikingly often, the evidential basis for these [techno-optimistic] promises falls far short of the standards of scrutiny [these scientists] would demand of research conducted by others.
“The result is a remarkable inversion of scientific practice: the more uncomfortable the implications of the evidence, the greater the enthusiasm for believing in a future that the evidence does not support.”

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

"Paper Cut," political cartoon by Pat Bagley Salt Lake Tribune, 9/18/26 www.sltrib.com/opinion/bagl...

In the the cartoon, a woman dressed in blue has a defiant look on her face, and is squeezed in the middle of a tightly coiled orange snake. The snake is labeled "Fascism". Her right forearm is pinned out of sight, in the coil. Only her upper torso head and upraised left arm are visible. Her holds a paper ballot, and there is a 270-degree swish in the air from her sweeping defense against the fascist snake, with her ballot. In place of a snake head, there is a big had holding a truncheon (with wrist loop), and the hand has been cleanly severed from the snake body, with a clean cut.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

About "63% of the studied species groups exhibited [Vapor Pressure Deficit] thresholds… the proportion of sites exceeding these thresholds has increased rapidly since about 1970 and is projected to rise further under" due to climate heating. Open access: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Abstract: "With global warming, rising atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has emerged as a critical driver of vegetation productivity and the terrestrial carbon sink. Yet, the thresholds beyond which VPD constrains tree growth remain poorly quantified. Using 2,953 tree-ring sites and combining generalized additive models with threshold regression models, we demonstrate that growth-related VPD thresholds are widespread. Approximately 63% of the studied species groups exhibited identifiable thresholds, which were generally lower in cool, humid regions and higher in warm, dry environments. For the same tree species occurring under contrasting aridity conditions, thresholds also differed substantially. As VPD has risen, the proportion of sites exceeding these thresholds has increased rapidly since about 1970 and is projected to rise further under different emissions scenarios. Under SSP5-8.5 in particular, approximately 79.8% of the sites are projected to be exposed to VPD above their thresholds by the end of the century. Although potential upward threshold shifts associated with acclimation or adaptation could partly reduce future exceedance, this buffering effect becomes increasingly limited under stronger climate forcing. Without effective climate mitigation, rising VPD will increasingly exceed the tolerance thresholds of trees, placing more trees under sustained growth constraints and undermining terrestrial carbon sequestration."

"Significance: Rising atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a measure of atmospheric dryness, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to terrestrial ecosystems. Using global tree-ring records, we quantify growth-related VPD thresholds beyond which VPD-driven growth benefits weaken or VPD becomes inhibitory. As VPD continues to rise, more tree-ring sites are projected to exceed these thresholds. Although potential acclimation or adaptation may partly reduce this exposure, this buffering effect diminishes under stronger cli…

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

That isn't the only looming Southern Ocean problem. This one can lead to a feedback reducing a carbon sink. At about 430 ppm CO2 now, we are almost there. McNeil & Matear (2008), open access www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Southern Ocean acidification: A tipping point at 450-ppm atmospheric CO2

Ben I. McNeil (b.mcneil@unsw.edu.au) and Richard J. Matear - Authors

December 2, 2008

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) 105 (48) 18860-18864 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806318105

Abstract

Southern Ocean acidification via anthropogenic CO2 uptake is expected to be detrimental to multiple calcifying plankton species by lowering the concentration of carbonate ion (CO32-) to levels where calcium carbonate (both aragonite and calcite) shells begin to dissolve. Natural seasonal variations in carbonate ion concentrations could either hasten or dampen the future onset of this undersaturation of calcium carbonate. We present a large-scale Southern Ocean observational analysis that examines the seasonal magnitude and variability of CO32- and pH. Our analysis shows an intense wintertime minimum in CO32- south of the Antarctic Polar Front and when combined with anthropogenic CO2 uptake is likely to induce aragonite undersaturation when atmospheric CO2 levels reach ˜450 ppm. Under the IPCC IS92a scenario, Southern Ocean wintertime aragonite undersaturation is projected to occur by the year 2030 and no later than 2038. Some prominent calcifying plankton, in particular the Pteropod species Limacina helicina, have important veliger larval development during winter and will have to experience detrimental carbonate conditions much earlier than previously thought, with possible deleterious flow-on impacts for the wider Southern Ocean marine ecosystem. Our results highlight the critical importance of understanding seasonal carbon dynamics within all calcifying marine ecosystems such as continental shelves and coral reefs, because natural variability may potentially hasten the onset of future ocean acidification.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

"The ships leave with their money. The towns keep their garbage. "Multiply that across a whole season and you no longer have tourism. You have a daily invasion with a return ticket!" 3/5

The graphic includes a short paragraph and a stunning picture that looks down from above at mobs of tourists leaving a large cruise ship at Mykonos, Greece, showing the stern of the ship from the elevation of its highest deck, and showing a residential neighborhood to the right of the dock.

The heading says: "The Main Culprits Behind Overtourism:

The paragraph says: "Let’s stop pretending the answer is a mystery. The crowds choking Venice, Barcelona, and Dubrovnik didn’t form by accident, and they didn’t form one curious traveler at a time. They were delivered in bulk. By an industry that figured out how to turn living cities into drive-through attractions. And by people who are perfectly happy to be processed like cargo, as long as they get the photo.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Here Elliot's blog post (the bridge is only illustrative). This snip (from a few paragraphs down) sets the stage. Nice post(!), with a look from several decades back to the present. climatecasino.substack.com/p/an-unexpec...

"Readers also send me their own, often brilliant, climate analysis. They send me book suggestions, articles they want me to re-post, recommendations for the day’s ‘moment of doom’ and more. They auto-enroll me in fossil-fuel eZines and send me countless conspiracy theories ranging from chemtrails to HAARP.
An Unexpected Message

"And then once in a while I get a message that’s soul crushing. That’s what happened this morning. I am reproducing this morning’s message here with the sender’s permission:

"I’ve read a lot of literature on this, and, at 18, I just can’t process all these different possibilities in my head. Frankly, it’s the uncertainty of projections and human action that gets me, and really fuels my fears. I don’t know if societal collapse is now locked in, and I’d of course love to have children.

"Over the course of your career, have you ever found ways to believe in hope? I constantly feel as though earth is slipping away from me, and that the society I know, the security I know, is probably less than 3 decades from collapse. I just don’t know how people like you, who look at this stuff on the daily, can just go on living. I think you, who has been on the forefront of these things for so long might be helpful to consult.

I know this was long, and likely rambling, but I just thought I’d give it a go and see if there’s anything you’ve used in your own career to at least try and mentally cope.

(End of the message, now back to Ellitot's voice):

"Somewhere in my Youth and Childhood

"I have to put this in context. I was born in 1958. My earliest memories are from ...

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Charts and analysis in this 2024 paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s43...

The image is this frontmatter on Nature journal's webpage for the paper:

"

nature communications earth & environment articles article

Article
Open access
Published: 06 April 2024

Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes

Dominik L. Schumacher, Jitendra Singh, Mathias Hauser, Erich M. Fischer, Martin Wild & Sonia I. Seneviratne

Communications Earth & Environment volume 5, Article number: 182 (2024) Cite this article
Save article

20k Accesses"

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

A warning way back in 1976, and now repeated catastrophes worldwide, and worsening every year. Emergency cuts in emissions - deep and fast - are necessary. We need to get our governments on the ball. Problem example:

A chart showing that Bordeaux, France, has now recorded in the July heatwave more days above 40°C just in 2026 than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when records began) to 2025.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Some perspectives on the scales of fire, smoke, CO2 and irony — from Bill McKibben: billmckibben.substack.com/p/smoke-gets... 1/2

Quoting three paragraphs:

But of course all of those ironies pale next to the main one: smoke drifts across borders when there’s a big fire, but carbon dioxide constantly drifts across every border every day. And if you could see carbon dioxide, and watch its flow over time, the biggest single cloud has emanated from the United States. China may catch us someday but we’re the ones who have produced the current mess.

I’m sitting listening to David Wallace-Wells lecture this morning at the Chautauqua Institution, and he reminds us that the carbon humans have produced “weighs more than everything we have ever built on the surface of this planet. It weighs more than the total mass of life on the planet. It weighs more than the total mass of life and buildings combined.”

So—if there are “damages” to be paid, who should pay them? Canada, whose forests are burning? Or America, who set those forests on fire.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Likely, those moms' silence is to elected officials, too. A hopeful act for mother & kid would be, together, to write to those officials (state, national), like: We ACCEPT that fossil fuels must stay in the ground—so: phaseout fast, ration fairly with no loopholes, catch up with more renewables.

The image is an extract from her blog article. The extract says:

"Just under half have talked to their children about it.

"I understand why we don’t. We don’t know what to say. We are upset ourselves. We want to make them feel safe, and the truth is scary.

"But that silence has costs."

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

From the middle of the essay, as a lead up to most of the scenarios:

"That same mindset built America’s modern oligarchy. Exxon’s own scientists, for example, predicted global warming with alarming internal memos starting in the late 1970s, and the company’s executives, having weighed the future of our planet and our children against their bottom line, spent the next four decades funding lies to keep us burning their product and filling their money bins.

"It was nothing personal: they were simply setting aside empathy while optimizing their own incomes, and the habitability of our planet was simply a variable.

"The blueprint for the larger project was drafted in 1971, when tobacco lawyer Lewis Powell, two months before Nixon put him on the Supreme Court, sent a confidential memorandum to the US Chamber of Commerce calling on American business to organize, fund, and capture the universities, the media, the courts, and the American political system itself.

"Out of that memo grew the think tanks, the “scholars for hire,” and the vast rightwing media machines that have spent five decades teaching Americans to distrust their own government, oligarchs arguing essentially that oligarchy is preferable to democracy."

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Here's the spoiler for that animated chart. Record ice melt across Greenland, reaching ~70% of ice surface. A record by far! (But what is the source of the chart?)

The chart has months of the year on the X-axis and the percentage extent of melt area on the Y-axis. A grey band shows the extent of melt in the record for every year, starting from 0% in early April and ending at 0% at the end of September. The band's maximum, always occurring in July, ranges from ~20% to 50%. The average (black line) peaks at about 35%. The 2006 line (in blue) peaks at nearly 70% ice melt extent.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

This is a screenshot of this cruise ship's scrubber discharge into the harbor, at a place near the end of the 3-minute linked video. The link is queued to near this spot. Yuck!

The Youtube video linked in the original post shows mainly the air pollution from the cruise ship Azarama Pursuit. The link is queued to a spot near the end where the discharge of scrubber washwater is being discharged into harbor waters.

Scrubbers wash out sulfur dioxide, so the discharge is acidic as well as containing other toxic contaminants. Scrubbers trade just some of the emissions that would go into the air, for discharge of those contaminants into the seawater.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

A screenshot from the page she linked (an addition below the open letter). By "Go" in their "No Means Go" campaign, the people of Klukwan, Haines & Chilkat Valley clearly mean "leave" — NOT "go ahead." The mining company pretends to not understand. Issue: 1 of SE Alaska's few king salmon rivers.

The image is only text, saying:

"In January, Chilkat Forever launched its “No means go” campaign, urging Vizsla Copper Corporation to leave the Chilkat Valley. In response, Vizsla hired a British Columbia public relations firm to the tune of C$100,000 a month for the next six months and extended their lease of Alaska Mental Health Trust Lands in the Chilkat Valley until 2033.

"Following the “No means go” campaign, a letter from nearly 300 Chilkat Valley residents opposing the proposed Palmer Project was delivered to the Haines Borough Assembly. The letter urges the Assembly to “keep the Chilkat River free of acid-generating mines and full of fish – forever.”

"More information about Chilkat Forever and the Palmer Project is available at www.chilkatforever.org."

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Online petition: www.change.org/p/tell-alask... Tell all cruise lines operating in Alaska to run no faster than 10 knots in sensitive whale habitat or when whales are present. In essence: TELL ROYAL CARIBBEAN AND ALL ALASKA CRUISE COMPANIES THAT WHALES ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN THEIR SCHEDULES

(The image is nice, graphically arranged handbill)

Title (all capital letters, white on red): SLOW DOWN

Body text:

TELL ROYAL CARIBBEAN AND ALL ALASKA CRUISE COMPANIES TO PROTECT OUR WHALES

On June 19, Royal Caribbean’s Ovation of the Seas arrived at port in Seward with a dead endangered pregnant fin whale on its bow.

The otherwise healthy whale was found with blunt force trauma to its jaw, spine and ribs — consistent with a vessel strike. Royal Caribbean later admitted the ship had struck the whale.

To keep our whales safe, these cruise ships should be moving no faster than 10 knots in sensitive whale habitat or when whales are present.

Footer (all caps, white text on red).

TELL ROYAL CARIBBEAN AND OTHER CRUISE SHIPS ACROSS ALASKA TO SLOW DOWN SO NO MORE WHALES ARE STRUCK. SIGN THE PETITION.

(And a QR code with this address: https://www.change.org/p/tell-alaska-cruise-ships-to-slow-down-and-stop-hitting-whales

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

2/2 ... Here is a snippet from the Introduction to the new report "Reimagining Tourism Futures - Pathways for Transition in Turbulent Times."

The image shows the opening text of the Introduction, and says:

"Tourism and hospitality are entering a period of profound change driven by multiple interacting pressures. Climate instability threatens the viability of established destinations as rising temperatures, extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, and water scarcity reduce the long-term ecological and experiential capacity of many regions. Recent assessments of planetary boundaries show that several critical thresholds have already been exceeded, particularly in relation to climate change, land-use change, and biodiversity loss.

"Together, these pressures reframe sustainability not as a reputational concern, but as a material risk issue affecting assets, supply chains, workforce stability, and destination viability.

"For tourism and hospitality, this means that future development and operations can no longer assume unrestricted access to energy, land, water, or stable ecosystems. Growth strategies increasingly face physical, regulatory, technological and social risks and constraints: limits on emissions, pressures on water and food systems, heightened exposure to climate risks, and growing societal scrutiny of environmental and social impacts. Operating within more stringent ecological limits therefore implies a shift from volume-driven expansion toward models that explicitly account for biophysical constraints, long-term resilience, and the capacity of destinations and communities to absorb tourism activity without degrading the systems on which they depend.

"While climate instability affects destination viability, it is only one part of a wider ..."

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

CBC's July 1 press release cites a study which "determined that the probability of a strike event [being fatal] is 20% at 9 knots, 50% at 11.8 knots, 80% at 15.3 knots, and nearly 100%…above 15.3 knots." Ovation of the Seas ran at over 15 kts from Skagway to Seward except near one glacier.

This is a map showing Ovation of the Seas course and speeds on its June 17 to 19, 2026 run from Skagway, Alaska through Icy Strait (and past the mouth of Glacier Bay) and up the outer coast to a Glacier visit near the village of Yakutat (Russel Fiord), and on along the top of the Gulf of Alaska and into Resolute Bay and, there, the cruise terminal at the city of Seward. The map's legend has speed categories of less than 10 knots (blue line), 10 to 12 knots (yellow line), 12 to 15 knots (orange line), and more than 15 knots (red line).

The Center for Biological Diversity, which authored the map, measured the ship's speed from the ships own internet-reported AIS transponder data, which is available online.

The Ovation of the Seas traveled at greater than 15 knots (red lines) for this entire voyage, except for a very short distance at the glacier (short blue line).

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Right! @kevinclimate.bsky.social nailed it in 2011: "Socolow's wedges…they're the wrong way around. ...He has us starting with small reductions from the pointy ends of the wedges & progressing to…the big end. …but because we're so late…we need to get the big reductions almost immediately." 1/2

The image is a slide from Kevin Anderson's July 2011 to UK government's DFID agency. The slide is titled "Why does this [Anderson's analysis of what urgent climate action was needed at the time] differ from 'standard' analyses?" in the science.

The 5th of 6 bullets is: "Socolow's Wedges are wrong way round (need early action)"

The other bullets are:

Growth rate to peak emissions (1-2% CCC etc. real 3, 4% or higher);

Peak year assumptions (2010-2016: Stern 2015, CCC 2016) (China & India peak -2017);

Rate of emission reduction order of magnitude more challenging;

Technology (esp. supply) very limited to deliver in time for Annex 1; and, 6th:

'Net' Costs are meaningless (non-marginal mitigation & adaptation)".

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

I'm adding this extract (and my comment in red), to heighten attention to this startling progression in one metric for climate change. Real, worsening harms in an example location. My recommendation: subscribe to posts by Tamino (statistician Grant Foster) his Wordpress blog.

"...this year isn’t over yet (it’s still June).

[Chart posted here]

"Prior to the year 2000, it never reached 104°F (40°C) in Bordeaux. But it did during the super-killer heat wave of 2003. Twice. It did so once more in 2019, twice more in 2022, once more in 2025, and five times this year. So far — this year isn’t over yet (it’s still June). Of course people are talking about it, and thank goodness Europeans are so much better warned and better prepared than they were in 2003."

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

"We highlight how much we're already stuck in a figurative 'Anthropocene quicksand', where only an active pull can free us from consequences like global heating [and] even very modest continuation of GHG emissions will keep us at high warming levels." agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Figure 2
Open in figure viewer
PowerPoint

Anthropocene landscape of human action (horizontal axis) and Earth system response (vertical axis). Green, orange and red areas conceptually represent manageable, dangerous and unmanageable versions of the Anthropocene, respectively. The three illustrative pathways, as in Figure 1 (setup a), are depicted as lines. Human forcing (specifically, how fast the turnaround to net zero emissions happens) makes the difference between pathways 1 and 2, while climate sensitivity causes different temperature outcomes in pathways 2 and 3. A few worst-case type surprises involving feedbacks to warming within the carbon cycle (cc) and through rising equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) that are so far typically unaccounted for in Earth system models are illustrated by purple dotted arrows. Note that the upward vertical part of pathways 2 and 3 (2100–2150) is an effect by design of the prescribed extended emission scenario SSP 2-4.5, which holds emission levels constant during that period (land-use change emissions offsetting a decrease in industrial CO2 emissions). Scenario data and temperatures as in Figure 1, with CMIP7 input data for CO2 emissions (CEDS (Hoesly et al., 2025)) up to 2023.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Decades and decades of dithering to avoid truly effective measures to avoid "dangerous" (Kyoto Protocol) human-caused climate change. Early mitigation would have been relatively painless. Time to repent! Chart from today's periodic Down To Earth email newsletter from @theguardian.com .

The most important number of the climate crisis:
432.4, Atmospheric CO2 in parts per million, 2 June 2026
Source: NOAA. (A chart of the CO2 increase from 1960 to June 2, 2026 is shown.

That is 82.4 ppm above the safe level of 350 ppm, which was exceeded in 1990. The increase over the past 10 years alone is 25.9 ppm CO2.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Mexican President Sheinbauum "raised serious concerns" about Royal Caribbean's huge destination project. 4 million signatures on a Change.org petition opposed it. Greenpeace linked the project to significant consequences of expanded cruise tourism. Story: cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/...

Cruise Industry News

Headline: "Mexico Rejects Royal Caribbean’s Perfect Day Destination"

May 20, 2026

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

If you are in the U.S., here are the target supermarkets for surveying the shelves. If not in the U.S. pick your country from the drop-down list to see if you shop where you can help with this data collection.

1. Walmart Inc. Key brands: Walmart Supercenter, Walmart Neighborhood Market, Sam's Club

2. Costco Wholesale Corp. Key brands: Costco Wholesale, Costco Business Center

3. Target Corporation. Key brands: Target, SuperTarget

4. Publix Super Markets. Key brands: Publix, Publix Sabor, GreenWise Market.

5. The Kroger Co. Key brands: Kroger, Ralphs, Fred Meyer, Harris Teeter, King Soopers

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

The article provides a scenario for how Hanta virus could spread on a large cruise ship with thousands of passengers, instead of a small one, and the health danger to residents of ports the ship visits. Here is a snippet:

To be blunt, the problems with Hantavirus on the MV Hondius are for now the problem of another country. The ship departed Argentina on April 1. On April 6, the first passenger came down with an illness. On April 11, the passenger died. On April 26, his wife died. On April 27, another passenger was evacuated to South Africa. Not until May 2, did that passenger test positive for Hantavirus.
A full month passed, with passengers circulating throughout the ship, until Hantavirus became known as the cause of the deaths on the ship. It is thought that dozens of people came in contact with passengers who left the ship at ports during the month between its departure from Argentina and the discovery of the Hantavirus in South Africa.
About 150 passengers are presently quarantined on the MV Hondius. They are taking their meals in their staterooms and are not permitted in the public areas of the ship.
Let’s suppose this nightmare scenario occurs with one of the gigantic cruise ships that depart from Miami carrying thousands of people. Then it won’t be someone else’s problem. It will an American problem, and it’s one that we are woefully unprepared for. Trump’s budget for this year drastically cut funding by 50 percent for the Centers For Disease Control, which used to oversee and attempt to control infectious diseases. The budget calls for the elimination of the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, which would have dealt with a breakout of Hantavirus on a cruise ship. Robert Kennedy has plans to replace the disease prevention center with something called the Administration for a Healthy America, which will probably be promoting eating more grapefruit and doing more weightlifting, or something similar. Over the last year, 15 percent of the people working at the CDC have been fired or have resigned because of elimination of programs they were working on, about 3,000 people. In a report on the dissolution of the CDC, the Journal of the American Medi…

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

What I see here — from a rich northern country that has made (and continues to) make a big addition to the human-cause atmospheric carbon dioxide burden — is a dangerous, deadly climate policy masquerading as progress. If it is used as model policy, we will be climate-bug-splats on the windshield.

My reply post points out that France's policy, as expressed below in the article, is a deadly lack of ambition for a rich northern country that over time has made a substation addition to the carbon dioxide that has accumulated in the atmosphere over past decades of this and the prior centuries:

"France draws a line under fossil fuels

"France has moved to formalise that shift, with what is being widely described as the first comprehensive national roadmap to phase out fossil fuels.

"Announced by climate envoy Benoît Faraco, the plan sets explicit end dates across the economy: coal by 2030, oil by 2045, and gas by 2050.

"This is not, strictly speaking, new policy, but a consolidation of work already underway — a commitment to a fossil fuel phase-out. And in doing so, it has made the phase-out legible, and able to be legislated.

"That clarity is the point. It says: this is possible… this is happening. Most importantly, it says to other governments, you can plan for it."

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

"These are not radical ideas. They are practical, well understood, and widely supported. "What has been missing is the political will to implement them."

The text in the graphic is from the middle of the essay:

"The simplicity we’ve been avoiding

"Against that backdrop, the contribution from The Australia Institute is deliberately simple.

"Rather than layering new complexity onto climate policy, it sets out four practical steps Australia could take to fulfil its commitments and begin an orderly transition.

"First, stop making the problem bigger by banning new gas and coal projects. The most direct way to end fossil fuel production is to stop expanding it.

"Second, establish a clear timeline for the phase-out. Without a defined end date, there is little incentive for industry or communities to plan for change.

"Third, stop paying for the problem by eliminating fossil fuel subsidies. Australia has repeatedly committed to doing this, yet subsidies have reached record levels in recent years.

"And fourth, make polluters pay by increasing taxes on production. At present, Australia collects remarkably little revenue from fossil fuel exports, less in some cases than it collects from students, nurses, teachers or even beer drinkers."

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

A key clip, from one of the links in CIEL's thread (note: an ISDS is an "investor state dispute $ettlement"):

The Duty to Phase Out Fossil Fuels

Less than a year ago, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) clarified that States have obligations under multiple sources of international law to prevent climate harm and protect the climate system. The court also affirmed that States have a duty to cooperate — effectively and in good faith — toward that end. Meeting these obligations requires coordinated action to address the primary driver of climate change: fossil fuels.

The implications are clear. States must cooperate to tackle the policies, norms, and practices that lock in fossil fuel production, facilitate expansion, delay phaseout, and sustain the fossil economy. This includes eliminating mechanisms like Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) that allow fossil fuel companies to demand compensation when governments take climate action, potentially making it prohibitive for countries to comply with their phaseout obligations. The law requires ending new fossil fuel licensing and public subsidies; halting the buildout of oil and gas — especially in the ocean; tackling petrochemicals used for products like plastics and ammonia; and rejecting dangerous distractions like carbon capture, offsets, and geoengineering, which only prolong the fossil fuel era and introduce new risks.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Good thread. The article includes this chart. The essentially linear trends are obvious, as is that a social/political tipping point is near. Stronger advocacy by NGOs and climate scientists could drive improved Media coverage and accelerate beyond this linearity, toward strong legislation.

The image is a chart with two trend lines spanning 1997 to 2026, for Yes or No answers to a Gallup Poll question.

Chart Title: "Americans' Beliefs That Global Warming Will Threaten Their Way of Life"

Gallup Poll Question: "Do you think that global warming will pose a serious threat to you or your way of life in your lifetime? - Yes or No.

Gallup's Explanation of the Chart: "Line graph showing views on whether global warming will pose a serious threat to Americans' way of life, from 1997 to 2026. Over time, the percentage who think global warming will be a threat has risen from 25% to 45%."

My addition comments: From 1997 to 2026, the number of Americans who think their way of life IS NOT threatened by climate change has declined from 70% to 45%. And for both trends, a straight line could be drawn from end to end through the yearly variations.

My takeaway: For the U.S., a social tipping point is near for enacting substantial climate change policy. Politicians can anticipate further evolution of public awareness and opinion, and start pushing for the strongest measures now. I believe support for the strongest measures, emphasizing their NECESSITY (in view of severe impacts nationally and globally that anyone can now observe practically daily) can confidently be taken on, and that politicians doing so can drive stronger attention by the Media and accelerate the evolution of public opinion in favor of both mitigation and adaptation.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 18/04/2026

Cruise ships keep getting bigger, and bigger. No matter climate change, and the non-necessity of cruise travel. It is wholly discretionary travel. Photo & article are about Norwegian Cruise lines biggest ship yet. Note the scale, people vs. ship. Article: cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/...

Photo - "Norwegian Aura Floated Out." The photo shows a large crowd of people on a dock which is across the stern of the ship, on a sunny day. They are miniature in comparison to the massive ship. The ship's superstructure is complete, but not yet fitted out with windows and refinements, which will be completed at another location.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

This 2018 proposition makes sense to me, from personal observation of regular appellate and en banc court cases & how those courts work. The pith of the explanation begins in the 8th paragraph, for why a US Supreme Court of 27 justices is more sensible than the present 9. time.com/5338689/supr...

The Supreme Court Doesn't Need 9 Justices. It Needs 27

by Jacob Hale Russell | Time Magazine | Jul 16, 2018

Justice Kennedy’s retirement has prompted a chorus of cries by Democrats to resuscitate a seemingly unlikely idea: “packing” the Supreme Court. ...

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

A commentary paper by 3 tourism researchers — a glimpse into how serial ploys by airlines & the tourism industry enable their continuing climate-harming growth, using "new arguments to create further delay." "Ecotourism Caught in decarbonisation politics" open access www.nature.com/articles/s44...

Political Cooption of Research

Climate action involves politics as well as science and economics, and the framework for our analysis here is political ecology, the environmental outcomes of political processes. The tourism industry contributes to climate change, and is affected by it, but continues to pursue economic growth, with consequent growth in emissions. As for other industries with high environmental impacts, it uses a portfolio of political measures to create pretences of reduced contributions to climate change, whilst in reality it continues to increase them.

One measure is to co-opt researchers, keen to analyse new mechanisms; and environmental non-government organisations, optimistic about new options. With good intentions, they devote time to technical analysis, and compendia of case studies and small-scale success stories. This creates delays of years or decades, during which industries escape effective regulation. Eventually, researchers realise that positive contributions are proportionately miniscule, and the broader sector is unchanged. The industry then proposes another new option, and the process repeats.

We argue here that the suggestion that ecotourism could serve as a mechanism to decarbonise the tourism sector as a whole 1 , falls into this category: a positive proposal doomed to fail in technical terms, but able to create political delays to put off effective regulatory options.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

It's a law journal article, and here is a snippet of the beginning of its call to action, in the concluding section. The actual article is downloadable here: drive.google.com/file/d/1f6Ra... (with no AI illustration!).

Public awareness must be used as a powerful tool to end the cycle of complicity. Cruise line owners are the principal wrongdoers, as they are directly responsible for the exploitation and abuse. However, this responsibility also extends to all those who facilitate it for economic gain, including domestic and international governments, flag states and the agents who supply the workers. Consumers purchasing cruises are unknowingly contributing to the mistreatment of workers and supply the economic motivations for the exploitative labor practices at sea. 344 Put another way, consumer demand drives the industry and inadvertently perpetuates a system that relies on exploitative labor practices.

The industry’s popularity is likely to account for the failure of numerous campaigns advocating better working conditions. Organizations like the International Transport Workers' Federation have been actively advocating for improved working conditions and have campaigned for years in an effort to raise public awareness. 345 A ...

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

(3/3) In 2010 (sorry, not 2008) Maniates & John Meyers published a compendium, "The Environmental Politics of Sacrifice," MIT Press. In part it frames realization that we make small daily choices (sacrifices) for good outcomes, & builds from there toward reaching larger, critically necessary ones.

Shown is a snippet of the cover of the book, The Environmental Politics of Sacrifice.

Edited by Michael Maniates and John M. Meyer.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

(2/3) That's a 2007 op-ed by Michael Maniates, a prof. of environmental politics. Its content is a relevant now on the topic you discussed as it was 19 years ago. Here's a bit of it, below. And (next post) in 2008 he co-authored a compendium of works on sacrifice politics.

Surely we must do the easy things: They slow the damage and themselves become enabling symbols of empathy for future generations. But we cannot permit our leaders to sell us short. To stop at "easy" is to say that the best we can do is accept an uninspired politics of guilt around a parade of uncoordinated individual action. What of the power and exhilaration that comes from working with others toward bold possibilities for the future? What of present sacrifice for future gain?

The time for easy is over. We're grown-ups who understand the necessity of hard work and difficult choices. We're ready for frank talk about how we best confront -- in ways rewarding, confusing, creative and hard -- the planetary emergency before us.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

A word to the wise ... ... national governments should have a rationing mechanism in place and ready to go for whenever the need arises — and not only for fuels. Difficult times ahead — from climate & biodiversity collapse, and war. Lots of wisdom in this (and I recommend finding a copy):

Carter Henderson

The Inevitability of Petroleum Rationing in the United States

Introductory Summary:

The thesis of this report is that the 75 year-old Oil Era is rapidly drawing to a close in the US, and that the rationing of irreplaceable petroleum supplies is the most effective and equitable system available for getting America through the turbulent years between 1978 and the approaching sustainable-energy era.

America’s growing dependence on high-priced imports of foreign oil…is now clearly endangering our economic vitality and national security. We believe the Government’s efforts to remedy this threat by raising oil prices in the hope of controlling consumption will fail, and that within two years or so another strategy will have to be pursued.

Rationing has been virtually ignored in the energy debate because too many Americans with trace memories from the darkest days of World War II equate it with severe restrictions on their motoring freedom enforced by oppressive government bureaucracies. This fear is played upon by special interest groups who stand to profit by confining the debate within the bounds of the economists’ traditional, if bankrupt, equilibrium model of supply and demand which is proving far too simplistic to deal with the global complexities of today’s petroleum crisis.

We believe petroleum rationing can succeed where the economists’ market-oriented system cannot because:

1. The announcement of oil rationing would educate the American people to the seriousness of the US energy outlook as the market system has utterly failed to do.

2. Rationing would enable the Government to hold US oil consumption to whatever level it felt the nation could afford—price increases cannot. Furthermore, price increases in this basic commodity, while inevitable in the longer term, will create a sudden surge of additional inflation as their multiplier effect is felt on all goods and services…

3. Rationing is an equitable way…

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Representative democracy functions only if (continually) senators & congressional representatives have loyalty and act in the best interests of the people and according to the Constitution. When their loyalty and actions are driven instead by money & party, it totally breaks down. There we are.

Image of original post by @danielleloveswords.bsky.social, replied to by @. The original post says, "As Trump’s $1.38 BILLION PER DAY war of choice continues with no clear purpose, and soldiers and civilians continue to lose their lives for it, it’s good to remember that Republicans could have ended this last week, and they chose not to," and includes an image saying "52 SENATE REPUBLICANS VOTED AGAINST REINING IN TRUMP'S WAR WITH IRAN," and shows thumbnail images of 28 of those 52 GOP senators.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

.@theguardian.com gives 4 examples of nations that reshaped energy sources & policy after the '70s oil crisis. A point not covered — of wise policy not acted on — is society still having no mechanism to deal with now imminent shortages (fuel, fertilizer, food). Find Henderson's booklet if you can.

Carter Henderson’s Booklet Cover: “The Inevitability of Petroleum Rationing in the United States”
Start of the Introduction:
“The thesis of this report is that the 75 year-old Oil Era is rapidly drawing to a close in the US, and that the rationing of irreplaceable petroleum supplies is the most effective and equitable system available for getting America through the turbulent years between 1978 and the approaching sustainable-energy era.
“America’s growing dependence on high-priced imports of foreign oil…is now clearly endangering our economic vitality and national security. We believe the Government’s efforts to remedy this threat by raising oil prices in the hope of controlling consumption will fail, and that within two years or so another strategy will have to be pursued.
“Rationing has been virtually ignored in the energy debate because too many Americans with trace memories from the darkest days of World War II equate it with severe restrictions on their motoring freedom enforced by oppressive government bureaucracies. This fear is played upon by special interest groups who stand to profit by confining the debate within the bounds of the economists’ traditional, if bankrupt, equilibrium model of supply and demand which is proving far too simplistic to deal with the global complexities of today’s petroleum crisis. “We believe petroleum rationing can succeed where the economists’ market-oriented system cannot because:
“1. The announcement of oil rationing would educate the American people to the seriousness of the U.S. energy outlook as the market system has utterly failed to do.
“2. Rationing would enable the Government to hold US oil consumption to whatever level it felt the nation could afford—price increases cannot. Furthermore, price increases in this basic commodity, while inevitable in the longer term, will create a sudden surge of additional inflation as their multiplier effect is felt on all goods and services…
“3. Rationing is an equitable way…"

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

Sandra, I think you will find this 1978 retrospective (and a look at preparing for future resilience and getting off of oil) by Carter Henderson quite interesting. Find it in a used bookstore, or DM me for a scanned copy (89 pages). Long out of print.

Carter Henderson Cover: “The Inevitability of Petroleum Rationing in the United States”
Start of the introductory Summary:
“The thesis of this report is that the 75 year-old Oil Era is rapidly drawing to a close in the US, and that the rationing of irreplaceable petroleum supplies is the most effective and equitable system available for getting America through the turbulent years between 1978 and the approaching sustainable-energy era.
“America’s growing dependence on high-priced imports of foreign oil…is now clearly endangering our economic vitality and national security. We believe the Government’s efforts to remedy this threat by raising oil prices in the hope of controlling consumption will fail, and that within two years or so another strategy will have to be pursued.
“Rationing has been virtually ignored in the energy debate because too many Americans with trace memories from the darkest days of World War II equate it with severe restrictions on their motoring freedom enforced by oppressive government bureaucracies. This fear is played upon by special interest groups who stand to profit by confining the debate within the bounds of the economists’ traditional, if bankrupt, equilibrium model of supply and demand which is proving far too simplistic to deal with the global complexities of today’s petroleum crisis. “We believe petroleum rationing can succeed where the economists’ market-oriented system cannot because:
“1. The announcement of oil rationing would educate the American people to the seriousness of the U.S. energy outlook as the market system has utterly failed to do.
“2. Rationing would enable the Government to hold US oil consumption to whatever level it felt the nation could afford—price increases cannot. Furthermore, price increases in this basic commodity, while inevitable in the longer term, will create a sudden surge of additional inflation as their multiplier effect is felt on all goods and services…
“3. Rationing is an equitable way…"

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

Not only did US cities not take the rational path of Denmark, the US government failed to heed the advice in Carter Henderson's 1978 booklet (you may find it in a used bookstore). This would have cut our oil consumption, or at least have a system in place for oil supply disruption and price shocks

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

From the Conclusion: Different than conventional understandings of greenwashing "the research shows that airlines deploy a distinctive rhetorical strategy of 'FUTURE SOOTHING,' … that calms concerns by projecting a comforting, optimistic future" that legitimizes their continued growth.

"The analysis not only confirms earlier research on avia-
tion exceptionalism (Higham et al., 2022) and technological
mythmaking (Peeters et al., 2016) but extends this literature
by revealing the rhetorical mechanisms through which dis-
courses are rendered persuasive. Specifically, the research
shows that airlines deploy a distinctive rhetorical strategy of
“future soothing,” a rhetorical mechanism that calms con-
cerns by projecting a comforting, optimistic future that also
functions as a legitimation of continued growth. This chal-
lenges conventional understandings of greenwashing that
focus primarily on factual accuracy. In other words, the issue
is not “the facts versus the fiction” as much as the underlying
strategy of temporal displacement, where future promises
substitute for present accountability. As a result, the industry
veers away from measurable improvements and emissions
reductions while ensuring sustainability firmly remains in
aviation discourse. The aviation sector effectively governs
through time, delaying action and transforming inaction into
the appearance of progress.
A key further finding of the analysis is the existence of
contradictory claims such as “sustainability through growth”
or “leadership amid failure,” which are not rhetorical flaws
but productive tensions that enhance the discourse’s adapt-
ability and hegemonic reach. These contradictions allow air-
lines to speak simultaneously to optimism and realism, action
and inaction, thereby maintaining legitimacy across diver-
gent audiences. Understanding this logic of contradiction
contributes to broader theories of hegemonic discourse and
anticipatory legitimation, in which the promise of future
transformation secures a license to operate."

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Conclusion of an animated chart, from the Guardian article:

The animated chart shows (from 1960 to 2024) Global CO2 emission on the Y-axis (with the line starting at about 15 gigatonnes per year and ending at about 43 GT/year) and average Global GDP Per Capita on the X-axis (starting at about $500 and ending at about $15,000). The line is somewhat irregular, but has a steady up-slope (with just a few minor reversals).

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Another win, after his hollow Nobel coup de tat: "Olympics Update: Trump wins gold for downhill presidency"

From a facebook post by Andy Borowitz:

Caption for a photo of Trump: "Olympics Update: Trump wins gold for downhill presidency".

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

That's a great summary of the socio-political phenomenon. It can be broken. In the '50s & '60s the taboo was challenging the 'right to smoke' indoors. '70s: it was relegated to the back of the airplane. '80s: 'No Puffin' stickers were common in homes/bizs. '90s: the norm became No Smoking.

An example of the "No Puffin" anti-smoking stickers is shown: a red slash through a puffin sea bird smoking a cigarette. The stickers became common in the 1980s, used to silently announce that smoking was no welcome or prohibited in an indoor space. They arose because confronting someone to not smoke was taboo. By the late 1990s the stickers were less needed and no longer common, because the social norm had been broken of accepting smoking anywhere as a right. The right of others to clean air indoors became the social norm.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

The "global aviation regime [is] adept at shaping user practices & culture to enable & encourage unconstrained air travel… This has influenced the public’s perception of possible regulatory regimes…" "confront…artificial[] acceleration [of] demand." OPEN ACCESS: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Journal of Sustainable tourism. 2026, Vol. 34, no. 2, 296–312

On all fronts: how to end aviation exceptionalism

James Maclaurin, Elisabeth Ellis and James Higham

ABSTRACT
We argue thataviation xceptionalism is both a demand side and a supply side problem.Despite exponentialincreases in demand for international air travel, plane makers have achieved only modest linear movement toward low carbon aviation technologies. Meanwhile, the global aviation regime has become adept at shaping user practices and culture to enable and encourage unconstrained air travel consumption.This has influenced the public’s perception of possible regulatory regimes and, along with persistent overestimation of technical debt, has prevented the use of regulations similar to those that are successfully moving the automotive sector to new low-carbon technologies. On the supply side, there is no realistic prospect of attaining sustainable aviation technology without a government-led, private-sector supported, moonshot-style collective effort. On the demand side, the psychological barriers to behavior change will not be resolved without confronting the drivers that ‘create’ air travel consumption and artificially accelerate demand.

Introduction
We have long known about the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change (IPCC 2022). We have also known, in broad terms, what we need to do to avert disaster (Stern & Stiglitz, 2023). All successful solutions involve some mix of social/behavioral change, regulation, scientific discovery & commercialization of technological innovations (Geels & Kemp, 2007). Results have been mixed. 30 years after COP1 in Berlin there are still domains in which none of these strategies has had a significant effect on carbon emissions and radiative forcing more generally. This paper takes international aviation as an example of such an intractable domain… Reasons given for exceptions… no longer justify the exceptional status of international aviation…

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

Here (in the alt-text of the image) is the rest of the table of contents of Henderson's 1978 booklet "The Inevitability of Petroleum Rationing in the United States." (4/4)

Here is the rest of the table of contents of Henderson's 1978 booklet "The Inevitability of Petroleum Rationing in the United States".

Part Three - Evaluation of Administration Efforts to Solve the Energy Crisis including its Contingency Gasoline Rationing Plan. Page 35.

3.1 Ford’s Rationing Plan
3.2 Energy Policy and Conservation Act
3.3 Catastrophic Energy Emergency
3.4 Cost of FEA’s Rationing Plan
3.5 FEA’s Discrimination List
3.6 “Exchangeable Coupon Rationing”
3.7 Ration Coupons Worth $300-$400
3.8 Impact of FEA’s Hypothetical Oil Embargo
3.9 Rejecting Credit Cards
3.10 Energy to Last Ten Years
3.11 Avoiding National Catastrophe
3.12 President’s 1985 Energy Goals
3.13 National Energy Plan Under Attack
3.14 The Rationing Option Gains Legitimacy

Part Four - Creating an Equitable Plan for the Rationing of Petroleum. Page 55.

4.1 Standby Rationing Bureaucracy
4.2 Energy and Economic Growth
4.3 Rationing Creates Jobs
4.4 The Law of Limiting Factors
4.5 Creating a New Micromarket
4.6 Consumer Freedom of Choice
4.7 Getting the Nation’s Attention
4.8 Creating Societally-important Jobs

Notes - Part One (Pages 1 to 17). Page 69. [52 notes]
Notes - Part Two (Pages 18 to 34). Page 72. [38 notes]
Notes - Part Three (Pages 35 to 54). Page 74. [27 notes]
Notes - Parft Four (Pages 55 to 68). Page 76. [14 notes]

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