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Reposted by Pawel Swidlicki

Matthew Downhour @matthewdownhour.bsky.social · 21h

Perfect example though of how corrupting tariffs are. Every town & business becomes dependent on little tariff carve outs, meaning that buying influence with Senators becomes mandatory to stay in business. The tariff is the mother of trusts!!!

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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 06/10/2026

interesting that conservatives were militantly “we must reward hustle” when the target was affirmative action at elite universities and now, when faced with the success of south asians and other groups, it is “i think we are too meritocratic”

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It makes a decent amount of sense from a Westminster perspective, but then so did May's 2017 gambit. The risk is you fail to convince the enough of the public that going early is merited, they think its just cleaver-dickery (with levels of trust already very low) and you lose control.

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Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 06/10/2026

kinda breathtaking to watch the U.S. media establishment lose its shit about one maybe-plague death in a Russian backwater town with 3,887 confirmed measles cases reported in the United States, SO FAR, in 2026

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It's the 'it's only settler colonialism if there were boats' school of thought

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

OK, not everything fits neatly on an idealist/realist axis, I can accept that in principle, but show me your own framework in that case otherwise it risks giving off this kind of vibe.

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Jordan @jordanpfot.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Rare Michael Walker good take. Responded to with, you guessed it, word salad!

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I mean even if this were true (it's not) doesn't this just remind people that Trump promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war on Day One of his second term?

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I don't want to downplay the aspect of principled opposition to Nazism which was vital in sustaining UK through the dark times, but I also wouldn't overlook the strategic interests either, a Nazi-dominated Europe would've been catastrophe from UK perspective, longer term UK too would be vulnerable

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

In part, though a) as UK party with 72 MPs Lib Dems can't be as leader-centric as GPEW and b) expect it was more of a style/emphasis problem than a substance one

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Definitely less so, but at one point a not insignificant chunk of 2024 Lib Dem vote had moved over to the Greens. Some of that would have returned (especially in Tory-Lib Dem marginals) but it was a factor nonetheless.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

True to some extent but at height Zacmentum, polls suggested they were taking decent bite out of 2024 Lib Dem vote share.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Fun to compare Tory rhetoric around deregulation and debureaucratisation last time they were in opposition and the state of the public realm they left in 2024 www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

theguardian.com

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I'd say Ed Davey as well. Waning enthusiasm for the Greens helps shore up the Lib Dem vote share and possibly allows for a narrative reset also.

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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Exposing Trump's scheme to illegally withhold aid to coerce Ukraine into lying to help Trump's reelection got the aid released. Important point. I don't know how some Dems talked themselves into thinking the best way to counter criminality is to let it slide, rather than investigate and expose it.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Agree, I think it also demonstrates why he has likely hit his ceiling, in that not only is it a moral failure as you say, but also strategic ineptitude.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It’s Starmer 2.0: how you approach the party stuff is actually a good guide to how you’ll govern, it does therefore matter.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Last post on this as just heading out - I don't think the 'Benghazi model' is viable anymore, aside from whether it is even desirable. During Trump 1.0 and after during J6 hearings, lots of witnesses simply refused to turn up or where blocked from attending by the White House.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Exactly this. One of several reasons I couldn't ever really get into party politics is that my instinctive reaction would always be 'let's clean house' as opposed to 'let's close ranks'.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The problem was the GOP's continued embrace of him, and the failure to secure the conviction threshold was a symptom of that, not its cause. Not pressing ahead with impeachment would have had same effect of making him above the law. This way at least the GOP/SC get to own that.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I agree that in both these cases acquittal helped, though a) in Trump's case it was still right thing to do and b) Hegseth/RFK etc are not Trump c) the overall political environment is different

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

My understanding is that a pardon would negate that, though obviously happy to be proven wrong on that.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

They recessed the House to avoid having to put Hegseth impeachment to a vote. I just don't buy that it would be a boost to the administration, the trial would centre their failings. Was winning the Owen Paterson standards vote a boost for Johnson?

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I mean they're all going to get Presidential pardons anyway, but that's not an excuse to do nothing, and a majority guilty verdict is still something, plus it demonstrates why the current system is not fit for purpose and needs to be reformed.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Yeah, I don't think carpet impeachment would work but there are a few instances where the people are so egregiously corrupt/incompetent/malicious etc even by the standards of Trump 2.0 that not only is it the right thing to do per se, but it is also popular more broadly and can act as wedge issue.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The US system is titled very heavily towards unaccountability, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't do what you can with the limited and imperfect tools at your disposal.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

But even aside from that, I think that you can risk over gameifying it when ultimately what matters is 'should these people be impeached?' and if yes, there's merit in doing that in of itself even in absence of an immediate payoff.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I doubt that failure to convict (by failing to hit the threshold) would be seen as a positive news story for the administration relative to all the things that would come out during the process and force 2028 Senate candidates to defend likes of Hegseth, RFK etc who are very unpopular.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

London is the greatest city in the world, but we shouldn't feel completely proud of it?

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David Beard @dabeard.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

“Older Cuban men who had lived in the U.S. for decades have been deported to Mexico, where they have struggled to get by. Some Cubans have been deported to Africa.” www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...

nytimes.com

How Trump’s Deportation Policies Have Rocked a South Florida House Race (Gift Article)

Representative María Elvira Salazar, a Republican, ran an ad criticizing the Trump administration. It may have jolted other Republicans — and drawn attention to her Democratic opponent.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

It is indeed Kemi's party now. No other version of the party to date could have finished 5th in Greater Manchester behind Restore.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Campist no? Campest has slightly different connotations.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Suella doesn't have to identity as English, that's her right. Equally, she doesn't get to police what other people choose to do.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The wonderful thing about identity is that you're completely free to choose your own, you have multiple identities, they can layer, they can overlap, they can be dialled up or down depending on the external environment.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Latest Badenoch: “If [Andy Burnham]’s not calling an election, why’s he talking about things happening in 2030?” - alarming the extent to which so much of our political class cannot process the idea of “planning for events four years in the future”.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

...though I do also understand the frustration that the party doesn't really seem to be visible in terms of the key conversations about where the country is going. That's the bigger issue I think.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I think Lib Dems would aspire to more than 'Labour where people don't like Labour', both in terms of the seats that puts into play and more broadly in terms of having a wider mission/purpose. For the time being though, under the current conditions, its better than nothing...

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

When you've got senior members trying to find places to hide and are having to rule out physical violence from proponents... ...maybe a motion is slightly dodgy?

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Another would be 'what is your definition of gangbusters [sidebar, I really hate that term] and when did the UK economy last meet it?' (other than the immediate Covid rebound)

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I know I keep saying this, but Kemi Badenoch is the product of an environment where there are too few avenues where she is asked 'soft' but important follow-ups like 'okay, what are the essential public services?'

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I understand that, but as James said, the premise of the referendum will be 'Rejoin = legal obligation to join €'

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I think the fact that the UK did have a concrete opt-out (unlike PL, SE & CZ) does mean this could be resurrected. Not saying it will, just that it is a different case.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

It also twice elected a President who thinks tariffs are good for growth and that zero trade is better than a trade deficit.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

They could, UK is clearly a special case.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Obviously I'm anti, but at the same time I don't understand people who place it at the very top of their moral hierarchies.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

This reminds me of the fact that being pro-death penalty was the factor most strongly correlated to support for Brexit, that and having a preference for well done steak.

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I recall when Priti Patel briefly flirted with it as a newly elected MP and it caused a real shitstorm, lots of pushback from within Tory ranks never mind more widely

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