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Reposted by Paul Middleton

Siobhán Jolley @siobhanjolley.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Our final Reception, Critical Theory and Interdisciplinary Studies session of #BNTS2026 is underway, with @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social presenting on music as exegesis in Walton‘s Belshazzar‘s Feast (which of course draws on themes from the book of Revelation as well as Daniel).

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

"Three decades in the doldrums vanquished in an instant!" Scottish football commentary is like poetry! Haiti 🇭🇹 0 Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 1 (28')

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Reposted by Paul Middleton

John Penniman @historiographos.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

I can tell you from experience, this essay by @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social teaches *very well* and served as the reading for the capstone session to my martyrdom course this semester. Highly highly recommend.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

I was delighted to take part in the #SBLAAR25 panel honouring the work of Elizabeth Castelli, with a paper on the 'martyrdom' of Charlie Kirk.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

I'm a bit surprised the post-mortem of Labour's worst Scottish Parliament result focus on the hope the 'surprise' by-election win in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse gave them. In fact, a 2% win in an easy seat was precisely in line with the SNP's 12% national opinion poll lead at the time.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

The media don't seem to know how First Ministers are chosen in Scotland and Wales. You can either vote for a candidate or abstain; you don't get a vote against. The only way Labour could "block" Rhun ap Iorwerth is by voting for Reform's nominee with the Tories. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth hopes to be first minister on Tuesday

With the largest Cardiff Bay group, ap Iorwerth needs to win a vote of Senedd members to take over.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

It will most likely be on a vote by vote basis. Aside from independence, I think there's probably more in common between the LibDems and the SNP. Each of the opposition parties can get something or nothing from budget negotiations, and I'd expect both LibDems and Greens to engage.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Against John Swinney's target of a majority, the SNP's 58 seats may feel flat. However, the Parliamentary arithmetic remains exactly the same. The SNP has more seats than the combination of *any* four of the other five parties, so as the last session, agreement can be struck with any single party.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

A couple of interesting Scottish Election statistics: *In both the 1999 and 2003 Scottish Elections, the Liberal Democrats came *fourth* with 17 seats. In 2026, both second placed parties won 17 seats. *In 2026 Labour and Conservative combined achieved fewer seats than the Conservatives in 2021.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Scottish Election Result Seats Scottish National Party 58 (-6) Labour 17 (-5) Reform UK 17 (new) Scottish Greens 15 (+7) Conservatives 12 (-19) Liberal Democrats 10 (+6) Independence Independence-supporting Parties 73 SNP 58 Anti-independence Parties 56

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Scottish Election Result Constituency SNP 38.2% (-9.5) Labour 19.2% (-2.4) Reform UK 15.8% (new) Conservative 11.8% (-10.1) Liberal Democrat 11.4% (+4.4) Scottish Green 2.3% (+1) Top up List SNP 27.2% (-13.2) RefUK 16.6% (new) LAB 16% (-1.9) ScotGRN 14% (+5.9) CON 11.8% (-11.7) LibDem 9.4% (+4.3)

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

There technically is no such designation, so either they will take turns about asking the first question at FMQs or I guess it would be open to one of them to bring a motion to Parliament to seek such a designation. I genuinely don't know!

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

So after the election of the Presiding Officer and the First Minister, do Anas Sarwar and Malcolm Offord play a game of rock, paper, scissors to see whether Labour or Reform, both on 17 seats, get to call themselves the 'official opposition' (although the position is convention rather than formal).

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Final Scottish Election 2026 result. SNP 58 (-6) Labour 17 (-5) Reform UK 17 (+17) Greens 15 (+7) Conservative 12 (-19) Liberal Democrats 10 (+6) *Best ever Scottish Green result *Worst ever Labour and Conservative results *Largest ever winning seat margin between first and second (41).

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Final results in the Highland and Islands finally announced at 1.14am. I underestimated the LibDem vote given the number of constituency seats they'd won. Reform 2 Greens 2 Conservative 1 Liberal Democrat 1 SNP 1

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Waiting up for the Highland and Islands List result. Assuming the pattern of constituency and list votes, the SNP could be compensated for some constituency losses (despite picking up Shetland). Probably 2 each for Reform, Greens, Conservatives, and 1 for SNP. But we await the official count.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Been out and see that they are still counting in the Scottish Election. Still 7 regional list seats to come in. On a quick (and given I've had a few drinks perhaps incorrect) calculation on the likely spread of the Highland seats, Labour and Reform may both end up in joint second on 17 seats.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Scottish results going to be several hours for the 56 Regional seats. No doubt SNP has won a fifth consecutive term, but a good few seats short of a majority (although reminder it's a PR voting system). With 69/73 constituency seats declared: SNP 55 LibDem 5 Conservative 4 Labour 3 Greens 2

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Final Wales Election result is sensational. Labour and Conservatives only have 16/96 seats between them! Plaid Cymru 43 Reform UK 34 Labour 9 Conservative 7 Green 2 Liberal Democrat 1 Plaid should have no difficulty forming a minority government.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

I was on The Ancients podcast last week talking about Judas Iscariot, and plugging my (not yet written) next book, Redeeming Judas Iscariot: The Life, Death, and Afterlife of an Invented Villain. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bfff...

youtube.com

The Real Story of Judas Iscariot

YouTube video by The Ancients

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Less well reported as we go into election week are the four April Scottish Independence polls. Should Scotland be an independent country? YES 53% NO 47% (Find out Now/Scotgoespop) YES 52% NO 48% (Survation/Diffley) YES 52% NO 48% (Survation/Ballot Box) YES 55% NO 45% (Norstat/Sunday Times)

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Scottish polls have been pretty static for the last six months, and point to another SNP big win, but just short of a majority (65) albeit in a PR voting system. The main interest is whether Reform UK or Labour will come a poor second, and if the Greens can push Conservatives into fourth.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Given there is a Scottish Parliament election in a few weeks time, there hasn't been very many polls. One from Survation last week: Constituency: SNP 35% LAB 19% REF 19% CON 11% GRN 8% LD 8% List: SNP 32% REF 18% LAB 17% CON 13% GRN 11% LD 8% Seat estimate SNP 62 REF 19 LAB 18 CON 12 GRN 11 LD 7

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

It's often said that those who are opposed to Assisted Dying legislation are standing up for and speaking for the most vulnerable in society. This is, of course, important. However, we always need to make sure thinking we're speaking up for folk doesn't mean speaking over them and failing to listen.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

While last year's Church of Scotland General Assembly voted very narrowly (4 votes) to retain its opposition to Assisted Dying, it received a significant report outlining the fact and reasons people of faith hold different views on Assisted Dying. www.churchofscotland.org.uk/about-us/our...

churchofscotland.org.uk

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

A difficult decision for all Scottish Parliamentarians today as the final vote takes place on the Assisted Dying bill. I am personally for this bill, for which the eligibility is restricted to residents of Scotland with a terminal illness, and a 6 month prognosis. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Will Scotland be the first to legalise assisted dying?

The final vote on the Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill is seen as too close to call.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

I am absolutely *not* disputing that. The *only* point I am disputing is that *if* the genuine concern is to maximise indy seats, then SNP1 GRN2 is a sound strategy in all regions, including Edinburgh. If GRN beat SNP in Edinburgh the *best* outcome is neutral, but seriously risks -1 net outcome.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

Ah OK - this is why we're arguing passed each other. My argument starts from the premise of accepting the point of the strategy is to maximise the indy seats. You're prepared to sacrifice the odd indy seat overall to maximise GRN seats. That's fine, so long as you're upfront about that.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

I'm totally accepting the premise the SNP will get no list seats in Edinburgh and Lothians. In the (albeit projected) numbers you pointed me to, there are 8 indy seats. If SNP1 and GRN2 strategy consistently applied, SNP win 6 seats, GRN still win 3 list. That's 9.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

No, I absolutely know that, and I also know that calculating the 7th and 8th seats come down to very small margins. But let me just put this directly. Does voting GRN in Edinburgh Central *maximise* the indy vote (which is the strategy being advanced) or best case net zero (as I'm arguing).

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

In fact, looking at the thread you've pointed to with the spreadsheet, the Greens would win a third list seat if they didn't win Ed Central, so again, if the strategy is to maximise indy seats *rather than voting for one's favourite indy party*, then that means SNP1 GRN2 in Ed Central too.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

I'm assuming the SNP1 GRN2 strategy. If this is about *maximising* indy seats. I'm arguing that SNP1 GRN2 needs to be applied consistently. The possibilities are: (1) SNP win Ed Cen; GRN win x list seats; SNP win 0. (2) GRN win Ed Cen; GRN win x-1 list seats; SNP win 0. (2) is 1 fewer indy seat.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

:-) OK, I'll go first and put down the challenge. It's for those who advocate voting GRN on constituency to show how this could result in a net gain for indy, given: Any GRN gain would be at expense of SNP: there are no GRN v Unionist seats; Any GRN constituency would result in one less list seat.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

Against the advice at the end of this, it makes zero sense to vote Green in any constituency *if* the concern is to maximise indy seats. If the Greens win a constituency at the expense of the SNP, they'll lose a list seat they would have won, whereas the SNP won't be compensated. So net -1.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

Scottish Parliament Polls this week Yougov/Ipsos/Survation Constituency SNP 34/36/37% Reform 18/16/17% Labour 14/20/18% Green 11/7/6% Conservative 10/9/12% LD 10/10/9% Region SNP 28/26/33% Reform 19/16/17% Labour 14/19/17% Green 16/16/9% Conservative 10/11/13% LD 10/10/9%

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

Three Scottish Parliament Election polls this week. (Yougov/Ipsos/Survation) Two months out, the SNP are still well in front, with seat projections from 57-64. Some shuffling in all other positions with Labour and Reform battling for a poor second. Two polls show substantial Green gains. #SP2026

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

Scottish Election polls showing the SNP significantly down on 2021 performance, but that was a colossal 48% of the vote. Worth bearing in mind, Labour are the only other party which has ever received more than 35% of the vote at a Scottish Election: just once, in the first elections in 1999 (38.8%)

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

More Scottish Parliament polls out last week. Yougov/Find Out Now. Same basic story: SNP way out in front, Reform leading Labour Constituency SNP 34%/36% REFuk 18%/21% LAB 14%/12% GRN 11%/10% LD 10%/9% CON 10%/7% Regional SNP 28%/29% REFuk 19%/20% LAB 14%/12% GRN 16%/14% LD 10%/9% CON 10%/10%

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 15/02/2026

Norstat Scottish Parliament poll 15 Feb 2026. Constituency: SNP 35% Reform UK 19% Labour 17% Conservative 10% Green 8% LibDem 8% Regional List: SNP 30% Reform UK 19% Labour 17% Conservative 11% Green 11% LibDem 7% Alba 3% Seat estimate (John Curtice) SNP 60 RUK 22 LAB 16 CON 13 GRN 10 LD 8

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 15/02/2026

John Curtice projection on today's Norstat Scottish Parliament election poll. To put this in perspective, the highest number of seats attained by a party other than the SNP in Holyrood is 56 (LAB, 1999). 38 would be (by far) largest lead in seats between winners and second. (33, SNP v CON, 2021)

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 15/02/2026

There's a lot of very silly commentary on this poll, which was almost certainly commissioned by Restore. It does *not* say these are the current voting intentions; It does not suggest there's anything wrong with the polling firm. The question was designed to 'advertise' Restore.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

John Curtice notes that the Greens don't normally stand in all constituencies, and an adjusted seat estimate might be: SNP 61 Labour 18 Reform 18 LibDem 13 Conservative 11 Green 8 Polls so far suggesting another SNP win. The order of the opposition parties keeps changing, and is the main interest.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

Scottish Election (Holyrood) poll (More in Common, 5 Feb 2026). Constituency: SNP 35% Reform 19% LAB 18% CON: 11% LibDem: 10% GRN: 5% Regional: SNP 25% Reform 20% LAB 19% LibDem 13% CON 12% GRN 9% Seat estimate (John Curtice) SNP 59 LAB 19 Reform 19 LibDem 13 CON 11 GRN 8

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

Very sad news that the former Scottish Health Secretary, Jeanne Freeman, who served through the Covid19 pandemic, has died. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Former Scottish health secretary Jeane Freeman dies aged 72

The former SNP politician was a key figure in the Scottish government's response to the Covid pandemic.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 31/01/2026

Scottish Election poll (Yougov 28 January - fieldwork much earlier). #SP2026 Constituency SNP 34% Reform 20% LAB 15% CON 10% Lib Dem 10% GRN 9% Regional SNP 29% Reform 20% LAB 15% GRN 12% CON 11% LD 9% Rough seat projection (electionpolling) SNP 59 Reform 24 Labour 16 CON 12 GRN 10 LD 8

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 31/01/2026

Very sorry to hear about the death of Jim Wallace. As well as the first Deputy First Minister in the Scottish Parliament, he was Moderator of the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland in 2021-2022 (the first male elder to hold the role in 400 years!). www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Jim Wallace obituary: Lib Dem who repeatedly stepped in as first minister

The former Scottish Liberal Democrat leader represented Orkney for more than 30 years.

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

Two Scottish Independence polls published this week. Should Scotland be an independent country? (Survation) YES 50% NO 50% (Norstat) YES 51% NO 49%

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Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) seat projection on Norstat/Sunday Times poll (16/1/26) (electionpolling: other models have different outcome) #SP2026 SNP 59 (-5) Reform UK 19 (+19) Labour 18 (-4) Conservative 14 (-17) Green 10 (+2) LibDem 9 (+5) SNP 6 short of a majority Independence majority +9

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