iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

Hi Angie. Influenza generally mutates faster than SARS-CoV-2. COVID can disrupt the immune system which may increase susceptibility. However, the current flu surge is likely being driven more by high influenza circulation, lower vaccination uptake and reduced population immunity.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

Ebola's R0 in African outbreaks is around 2, driven by funeral practices and care of the sick without PPE. In a developed-country setting, the R0 falls well below 1. This is one of the reasons why the risk of an Ebola outbreak in developed countries is low.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Ebola in the DRC. Hantavirus on a cruise ship. Almost nobody mentions: about 8% of your DNA came from viruses. One captured viral gene is why mammals can grow a placenta. New piece: medium.com/@adrian.este...

medium.com

Viruses Are Trying to Kill Us. They Also Built Us.

With Ebola and a hantavirus outbreak in the news, here’s the stranger truth about one of biology’s most peculiar things — including the…

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Australia is seeing a sharp rise in diphtheria cases in 2026, mainly in the NT, with a recent death highlighting how serious it is. Diphtheria can cause severe respiratory illness from a bacterial toxin. Childhood vaccination works well, but immunity fades. Many young adults are under-protected.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Loneliness sits awkwardly in public health. It’s not infectious. It’s not a classic lifestyle risk. But it still affects mortality. The “as deadly as smoking” claim isn’t quite right, but the real story matters. My latest article in Medium: medium.com/@adrian.este...

medium.com

Loneliness Is Not Quite As Deadly As Smoking. It Still Deserves The Same Attention.

An epidemiologist explains what the “loneliness vs smoking” claim gets wrong — and why the real problem is being overlooked.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Latest data from the Australian Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, show that Only 13% of people aged 75 and over are up to date with their booster. We need our governments, GPs and pharmacists working to improve this dire situation.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

If you’ve had COVID and never quite felt the same afterwards — you’re not imagining it. Long COVID sits in an uncomfortable space: real, common enough to matter, but still not fully understood. I’ve written a plain-English explainer on symptoms, risk, and recovery. medium.com/@adrian.este...

medium.com

Do you have long COVID? You’re not alone — here’s what we know

An epidemiologist explains what it is, how common it is, and what to expect

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Most people have heard of the WHO. Far fewer could explain what it actually does. Having worked within it, I’ve tried to set out how it works in practice, and why it matters. medium.com/@adrian.este...

medium.com

What the World Health Organization actually does — and why it matters

An epidemiologist and ex-WHO staff member explains how the WHO works, how it’s funded, and why global coordination still matters

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

During COVID. many epidemiologists found themselves explaining complex, uncertain data in real time - often without any training in communication. I wrote about what it was actually like: medium.com/@adrian.este...

medium.com

I got called at 6am and sat alone in the dark for an hour.

What it was actually like to explain a pandemic in real time

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

We ask epidemiologists to explain complex, evolving evidence, often in real time, to a general audience. We don’t train them to do it. My paper explains why this matters

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

rdcu.be/e9ZSc My new article about epidemiologists and the media. Some of us got thrown into the media spotlight during the early years of the COVID pandemic, with little or no training.

rdcu.be

Media engagement as a professional competency in the epidemiology workforce

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Journals are always struggling for reviewers, but many of them have such awful websites, it puts people off from accepting.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Thanks - I've been trying to also reestablish myself on X - not sure why! Also writing a book.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

Temporarily locked out of X due to a verification issue. Account still visible, just awaiting reset.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

This week’s uptick in SA COVID notifications highlights a broader issue. Without wastewater data or routine hospital reporting, we’re relying on a single surveillance stream. For respiratory viruses, triangulation is everything.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

South Australian COVID notifications rose from 79 to 104 this week. Small numbers — but a clear upward move. If this continues next week, we may be seeing the start of the summer wave that never quite materialised.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Adelaide Aquatic Centre closures look like a precautionary response, not an outbreak. Parasites such as Cryptosporidium are uncommon, chlorine-resistant, and well known to pool managers. Temporary closures and deep cleaning are standard practice. Risk remains low. Public health working as intended.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

Case numbers reflect testing, not true spread. Hospitalisations, aged-care outbreaks and wastewater matter more — but in Australia they’re reported inconsistently. The new CDC has a real opportunity to fix this.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

COVID, flu and RSV haven’t suddenly changed. They now circulate year-round, but testing and reporting don’t. When surveillance weakens, outbreaks aren’t prevented — they’re detected later. Hospitalisations/aged-care homes/wastewater now matter more than raw case counts. Hopefully, CDC will help.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

This is why raw case numbers now mislead. Surveillance should shift from population-wide testing to fragments: hospitals, aged care, wastewater - however, very sporadic reporting in Australia at the moment. When signals weaken, outbreaks don’t vanish — they arrive late.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Bottom line: Low notifications ≠ low circulation. This is mostly a surveillance effect, helped by strong population immunity — reassuring, but COVID hasn’t gone away.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Better indicators than case counts now include: • hospital admissions • aged-care outbreaks • wastewater • syndromic surveillance (e.g. FluTracking)

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Other respiratory viruses are circulating year-round. They dominate symptoms and further reduce COVID testing, blunting seasonal peaks. 7/8

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

There’s no major “breakout” variant right now. Current lineages spread steadily but don’t cause the sharp peaks we saw earlier in the pandemic.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Population immunity is high. After the 2024 winter wave and decent booster uptake, many infections are mild or repeat — and never tested.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Mild illness, holidays, and fewer GP visits mean fewer PCRs ordered — so notifications fall even if transmission continues.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Case numbers no longer track infections well. Most notifications now come from PCR testing in hospitals and aged care, plus a small amount of voluntary RAT reporting. In summer, people test less.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

COVID notifications in South Australia are very low for summer. Why? Short answer: this says more about surveillance than about the virus disappearing.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

Australia isn’t facing new viruses. We’re facing weaker surveillance. When testing and reporting drop, outbreaks don’t disappear — they’re just seen later, making events look sudden and alarming.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

Herd immunity isn’t ideology — it’s arithmetic. Dilute school-entry requirements and you shift risk onto infants, immunocompromised kids, and pregnant women.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

The South Australian Dept of Health has just announced a local measles case for someone with no travel history. This is a concern. measles is lurking out there.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

35 degrees at 8am in the morning - ridiculous. Even my dog didn't want to go out for a walk!

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

What does this mean? • Elimination ≠ eradication • It means no sustained local transmission for ≥12 months • Falling vaccination coverage allowed measles to return This is preventable.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

BREAKING: WHO announces the UK has lost its measles elimination status. Australia is close to the same threshold. #Measles #VaccinesWork

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

Lowest COVID weekly case numbers for at least 2 years.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 18/01/2026

New variant of the flu virus is driving surge of cases across the US and Canada theconversation.com/new-variant-... Another good article from The Conversation. Unusually for The Conversation, I did notice a typo "subclave" instead of "subclade".

theconversation.com

New variant of the flu virus is driving surge of cases across the US and Canada

A particularly infectious subvariant of influenza is keeping emergency room numbers high and causing especially severe illness in children.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 18/01/2026

South Carolina reports hundreds of measles cases, with rapid growth in recent days — the U.S. is seeing one of the largest outbreaks in years amid low vaccination coverage.

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 17/01/2026

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Study of essential workers finds neurological Long COVID linked to rises in plasma pTau-181 after infection, especially with long-lasting central symptoms (brain fog etc). pTau-181 increases assoc. with amyloid changes. Early biomarker signal, not diagnosis.

sciencedirect.com

Increased phosphorylated tau (pTau-181) is associated with neurological post-acute sequelae of coronavirus disease in essential workers: a prospective cohort study before and after COVID-19 onset

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a spectrum of post-acute sequelae including several neurological complications including cognitive dysfunction labelled N…

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