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Adrian Esterman

@profesterman.bsky.social
1.5K followers 691 following 197 posts

Professor of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, Adelaide University. Evidence-based updates on public health & outbreaks. Also on X/Twitter: @profesterman

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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Ebola's R0 in African outbreaks is around 2, driven by funeral practices and care of the sick without PPE. In a developed-country setting, the R0 falls well below 1. This is one of the reasons why the risk of an Ebola outbreak in developed countries is low.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
My latest article: How flu overtook COVID as Australia’s deadliest respiratory virus theconversation.com/how-flu-over...
theconversation.com
How flu overtook COVID as Australia’s deadliest respiratory virus
In the second half of 2025 influenza killed more Australians a month than COVID. Here’s how it happened.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Ebola in the DRC. Hantavirus on a cruise ship. Almost nobody mentions: about 8% of your DNA came from viruses. One captured viral gene is why mammals can grow a placenta. New piece: medium.com/@adrian.este...
medium.com
Viruses Are Trying to Kill Us. They Also Built Us.
With Ebola and a hantavirus outbreak in the news, here’s the stranger truth about one of biology’s most peculiar things — including the…
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
My latest article in The Conversation. Why diphtheria, whooping cough and measles have come back in Australia theconversation.com/why-diphther...
theconversation.com
Why diphtheria, whooping cough and measles have come back in Australia
Diseases once thought confined to history are making a comeback in Australia. And vaccination is only part of the story.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Australia is seeing a sharp rise in diphtheria cases in 2026, mainly in the NT, with a recent death highlighting how serious it is. Diphtheria can cause severe respiratory illness from a bacterial toxin. Childhood vaccination works well, but immunity fades. Many young adults are under-protected.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
The elderly are the group that tend to end up in hospital with COVID, yet few protect themselves. Read my latest Medium article: medium.com/@adrian.este...
medium.com
The world has stopped watching COVID. The risk for older people hasn’t.
An epidemiologist, aged 77, explains what the data still shows - and the simple steps that can still save lives
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Loneliness sits awkwardly in public health. It’s not infectious. It’s not a classic lifestyle risk. But it still affects mortality. The “as deadly as smoking” claim isn’t quite right, but the real story matters. My latest article in Medium: medium.com/@adrian.este...
medium.com
Loneliness Is Not Quite As Deadly As Smoking. It Still Deserves The Same Attention.
An epidemiologist explains what the “loneliness vs smoking” claim gets wrong — and why the real problem is being overlooked.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
I just published America Left the WHO. Here’s What That Actually Means medium.com/p/america-le...
medium.com
America Left the WHO. Here’s What That Actually Means
An epidemiologist and former WHO staff member explains what the US withdrawal really costs, and who pays the price.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
I just published The world has moved on from COVID. The risk hasn’t. medium.com/p/the-world-...
medium.com
The world has moved on from COVID. The risk hasn’t.
An epidemiologist explains what the evidence says about when the next pandemic might happen — and why the risk isn’t declining
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Latest data from the Australian Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, show that Only 13% of people aged 75 and over are up to date with their booster. We need our governments, GPs and pharmacists working to improve this dire situation.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
If you’ve had COVID and never quite felt the same afterwards — you’re not imagining it. Long COVID sits in an uncomfortable space: real, common enough to matter, but still not fully understood. I’ve written a plain-English explainer on symptoms, risk, and recovery. medium.com/@adrian.este...
medium.com
Do you have long COVID? You’re not alone — here’s what we know
An epidemiologist explains what it is, how common it is, and what to expect
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
A quick explainer on what WHO actually does seems to be resonating. I you haven't see nit: medium.com/@adrian.este...
medium.com
What the World Health Organization actually does — and why it matters
An epidemiologist and ex-WHO staff member explains how the WHO works, how it’s funded, and why global coordination still matters
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Most people have heard of the WHO. Far fewer could explain what it actually does. Having worked within it, I’ve tried to set out how it works in practice, and why it matters. medium.com/@adrian.este...
medium.com
What the World Health Organization actually does — and why it matters
An epidemiologist and ex-WHO staff member explains how the WHO works, how it’s funded, and why global coordination still matters
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
During COVID. many epidemiologists found themselves explaining complex, uncertain data in real time - often without any training in communication. I wrote about what it was actually like: medium.com/@adrian.este...
medium.com
I got called at 6am and sat alone in the dark for an hour.
What it was actually like to explain a pandemic in real time
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
rdcu.be/e9ZSc My new article about epidemiologists and the media. Some of us got thrown into the media spotlight during the early years of the COVID pandemic, with little or no training.
rdcu.be
Media engagement as a professional competency in the epidemiology workforce
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Another good article from The Conversation about how measles is impacting on the USA (and many developed countries). theconversation.com/we-study-pan...
theconversation.com
We study pandemics, and the resurgence of measles is a grim sign of what’s coming
Controlling the spread of many infections, including measles, depends on trust in public health, which is eroding.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Journals are always struggling for reviewers, but many of them have such awful websites, it puts people off from accepting.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
This is one of the many wonderful projects I am involved with www.talkingscrubs.com.au
talkingscrubs.com.au
Talking Scrubs
Talking Scrubs enable first-person communication for patients with permanent or temporary communication disabilities.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Temporarily locked out of X due to a verification issue. Account still visible, just awaiting reset.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
This week’s uptick in SA COVID notifications highlights a broader issue. Without wastewater data or routine hospital reporting, we’re relying on a single surveillance stream. For respiratory viruses, triangulation is everything.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
South Australian COVID notifications rose from 79 to 104 this week. Small numbers — but a clear upward move. If this continues next week, we may be seeing the start of the summer wave that never quite materialised.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
This week’s uptick in SA COVID notifications highlights a broader issue. Without wastewater data or routine hospital reporting, we’re relying on a single surveillance stream. For respiratory viruses, triangulation is everything.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
South Australian COVID notifications rose from 79 to 104 this week. Small numbers — but a clear upward move. If this continues next week, we may be seeing the start of the summer wave that never quite materialised.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Adelaide Aquatic Centre closures look like a precautionary response, not an outbreak. Parasites such as Cryptosporidium are uncommon, chlorine-resistant, and well known to pool managers. Temporary closures and deep cleaning are standard practice. Risk remains low. Public health working as intended.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Case numbers reflect testing, not true spread. Hospitalisations, aged-care outbreaks and wastewater matter more — but in Australia they’re reported inconsistently. The new CDC has a real opportunity to fix this.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
COVID, flu and RSV haven’t suddenly changed. They now circulate year-round, but testing and reporting don’t. When surveillance weakens, outbreaks aren’t prevented — they’re detected later. Hospitalisations/aged-care homes/wastewater now matter more than raw case counts. Hopefully, CDC will help.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
This is why raw case numbers now mislead. Surveillance should shift from population-wide testing to fragments: hospitals, aged care, wastewater - however, very sporadic reporting in Australia at the moment. When signals weaken, outbreaks don’t vanish — they arrive late.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
COVID notifications in South Australia are very low for summer. Why? Short answer: this says more about surveillance than about the virus disappearing.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Australia isn’t facing new viruses. We’re facing weaker surveillance. When testing and reporting drop, outbreaks don’t disappear — they’re just seen later, making events look sudden and alarming.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Herd immunity isn’t ideology — it’s arithmetic. Dilute school-entry requirements and you shift risk onto infants, immunocompromised kids, and pregnant women.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
The South Australian Dept of Health has just announced a local measles case for someone with no travel history. This is a concern. measles is lurking out there.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
35 degrees at 8am in the morning - ridiculous. Even my dog didn't want to go out for a walk!
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
BREAKING: WHO announces the UK has lost its measles elimination status. Australia is close to the same threshold. #Measles #VaccinesWork
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Lowest COVID weekly case numbers for at least 2 years.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
A lot of worry about myocarditis after COVID vaccines in kids. Large England study shows it’s rare, usually short-lived, and less common than after COVID infection itself. In short: infection carries the bigger risk. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Vascular and inflammatory diseases after COVID-19 infection and vaccination in children and young people in England: a retrospective, population-based cohort study using linked electronic health recor...
Children and young people have higher risks of rare vascular and inflammatory diseases up to 12 months after a first COVID-19 diagnosis and higher risk of rare myocarditis or pericarditis up to 4 week...
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
New variant of the flu virus is driving surge of cases across the US and Canada theconversation.com/new-variant-... Another good article from The Conversation. Unusually for The Conversation, I did notice a typo "subclave" instead of "subclade".
theconversation.com
New variant of the flu virus is driving surge of cases across the US and Canada
A particularly infectious subvariant of influenza is keeping emergency room numbers high and causing especially severe illness in children.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
South Carolina reports hundreds of measles cases, with rapid growth in recent days — the U.S. is seeing one of the largest outbreaks in years amid low vaccination coverage.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Study of essential workers finds neurological Long COVID linked to rises in plasma pTau-181 after infection, especially with long-lasting central symptoms (brain fog etc). pTau-181 increases assoc. with amyloid changes. Early biomarker signal, not diagnosis.
sciencedirect.com
Increased phosphorylated tau (pTau-181) is associated with neurological post-acute sequelae of coronavirus disease in essential workers: a prospective cohort study before and after COVID-19 onset
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a spectrum of post-acute sequelae including several neurological complications including cognitive dysfunction labelled N…
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41452424/ Large meta-analysis (250M+ person-years) - COVID-19 linked to ~50% higher relative risk of some autoimmune diseases. Risk higher after severe infection, lower in vaccinated people. Evidence moderate–low → signal, not certainty. Supports vaccination & follow-up.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Association between COVID-19 and New-Onset Autoimmune Diseases: Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 97 Million Individuals - PubMed
SARS-CoV-2 infection may induce long-term immune dysregulation; however, its contribution to the development of autoimmune disease remains disputed. We aim to quantify the relative risk of new-onset autoimmune diseases following COVID-19 and its modifiers through a systematic review and meta-analysi …
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
www.audacy.com/wwjnewsradio... Reports that SARS-CoV-2 was found in wastewater from ~96% of flights sound alarming, but when global prevalence is high (2022), almost every large flight will include at least one infected passenger. This is non-infectious RNA. Useful for surveillance, not panic.
audacy.com
Coronavirus found in samples from 96% of flights
If you believe it’s now safe to fly without a protective mask, you might want to think again. New research shows the COVID-19 virus has been found on nearly every flight.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
I’m also posting public health & epidemiology commentary on X/Twitter: @profesterman
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/EGKVVX... Small trial - but amazing results, and hope for those with resistant depression
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Stanford neuromodulation therapy for treatment‐resistant depression: a randomized controlled trial confirming efficacy, and an EEG study providing insight into mechanism of action and a potentially predictive biomarker of efficacy
You have to enable JavaScript in your browser's settings in order to use the eReader.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
www.ausdoc.com.au/news/experts... Ausdoc is a great website. Worth joining
ausdoc.com.au
Surgical masks are harming health workers — Professor Trisha Greenhalgh explains why
The renowned GP researcher has endorsed a letter to the WHO calling for an update to its advice for doctors and healthcare workers.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Australia is seeing an off-season flu surge with 4,100+ lab-confirmed cases so far this year, many linked to highly transmissible influenza A(H3N2) subclade K. If symptomatic, get tested, consider antivirals if high-risk, and stay home. 2026 vaccines due Apr–May. #AusFlu #Flu2026 #PublicHealth
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... New epi methods guidance (TARGET) helps separate ‘association’ from credible causal inference in observational studies.
jamanetwork.com
TARGET 2025 Statement
This Special Communication introduces the Transparent Reporting of Observational Studies Emulating a Target Trial (TARGET) 2025 guideline, a consensus-based guidance for reporting observational studie...
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/cov... We have a similar situation in Australia, with only 53% of people in Residential Aged Care up to date with their booster.
cidrap.umn.edu
COVID continues to exact heavy toll on older US adults, study suggests
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Viral outbreaks are always on the horizon – here are the viruses an infectious disease expert is watching in 2026 theconversation.com/viral-outbre... Good overview. We do now have vaccines against HPAI H5N1, and many countries are stockpiling doses.
theconversation.com
Viral outbreaks are always on the horizon – here are the viruses an infectious disease expert is watching in 2026
Viral infections are on the rise and spreading across the globe.
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Flu alert: Clade K H3N2 driving Australia's record 2025 season. Cases: 457k+ Jan–Nov (vs 200k norm). Extended May–Nov. Elderly ≥65 uptake: 60.5% – need >75% to blunt waves. ​ Clade K drifted but vax ~30–40% VE vs severe. Get boosted. #EpiSky #FluAus
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...? Uptake now 93% Need 95% for herd immunity.
theguardian.com
Rise in holiday measles infections sparks health alerts in NSW, SA and Victoria
Cases of the highly contagious virus jumped nearly threefold in 2025 as immunisation rates declined
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Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
HPV vaccination rates are down in Queensland. I have explained why in the Courier Mail and in an interview with 7News Sunshine Coast. It is mainly due to parents not signing or returning consent forms. Current system is paper-based and opt-in. Need electronic and opt-out.
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