Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 04/06/2026Ebola's R0 in African outbreaks is around 2, driven by funeral practices and care of the sick without PPE. In a developed-country setting, the R0 falls well below 1. This is one of the reasons why the risk of an Ebola outbreak in developed countries is low. 020
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 03/06/2026My latest article: How flu overtook COVID as Australia’s deadliest respiratory virus theconversation.com/how-flu-over...theconversation.comHow flu overtook COVID as Australia’s deadliest respiratory virusIn the second half of 2025 influenza killed more Australians a month than COVID. Here’s how it happened. 264
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 28/05/2026Ebola in the DRC. Hantavirus on a cruise ship. Almost nobody mentions: about 8% of your DNA came from viruses. One captured viral gene is why mammals can grow a placenta. New piece: medium.com/@adrian.este...medium.comViruses Are Trying to Kill Us. They Also Built Us.With Ebola and a hantavirus outbreak in the news, here’s the stranger truth about one of biology’s most peculiar things — including the… 193
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 21/05/2026My latest article in The Conversation. Why diphtheria, whooping cough and measles have come back in Australia theconversation.com/why-diphther...theconversation.comWhy diphtheria, whooping cough and measles have come back in AustraliaDiseases once thought confined to history are making a comeback in Australia. And vaccination is only part of the story. 4177
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 15/05/2026Australia is seeing a sharp rise in diphtheria cases in 2026, mainly in the NT, with a recent death highlighting how serious it is. Diphtheria can cause severe respiratory illness from a bacterial toxin. Childhood vaccination works well, but immunity fades. Many young adults are under-protected. 071
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 08/05/2026The elderly are the group that tend to end up in hospital with COVID, yet few protect themselves. Read my latest Medium article: medium.com/@adrian.este...medium.comThe world has stopped watching COVID. The risk for older people hasn’t.An epidemiologist, aged 77, explains what the data still shows - and the simple steps that can still save lives 2188
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 04/05/2026Loneliness sits awkwardly in public health. It’s not infectious. It’s not a classic lifestyle risk. But it still affects mortality. The “as deadly as smoking” claim isn’t quite right, but the real story matters. My latest article in Medium: medium.com/@adrian.este...medium.comLoneliness Is Not Quite As Deadly As Smoking. It Still Deserves The Same Attention.An epidemiologist explains what the “loneliness vs smoking” claim gets wrong — and why the real problem is being overlooked. 182
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 22/04/2026I just published America Left the WHO. Here’s What That Actually Means medium.com/p/america-le...medium.comAmerica Left the WHO. Here’s What That Actually MeansAn epidemiologist and former WHO staff member explains what the US withdrawal really costs, and who pays the price. 173
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 20/04/2026I just published The world has moved on from COVID. The risk hasn’t. medium.com/p/the-world-...medium.comThe world has moved on from COVID. The risk hasn’t.An epidemiologist explains what the evidence says about when the next pandemic might happen — and why the risk isn’t declining 3132
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 17/04/2026Latest data from the Australian Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, show that Only 13% of people aged 75 and over are up to date with their booster. We need our governments, GPs and pharmacists working to improve this dire situation. 2165
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/04/2026If you’ve had COVID and never quite felt the same afterwards — you’re not imagining it. Long COVID sits in an uncomfortable space: real, common enough to matter, but still not fully understood. I’ve written a plain-English explainer on symptoms, risk, and recovery. medium.com/@adrian.este...medium.comDo you have long COVID? You’re not alone — here’s what we knowAn epidemiologist explains what it is, how common it is, and what to expect 0249
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/04/2026A quick explainer on what WHO actually does seems to be resonating. I you haven't see nit: medium.com/@adrian.este...medium.comWhat the World Health Organization actually does — and why it mattersAn epidemiologist and ex-WHO staff member explains how the WHO works, how it’s funded, and why global coordination still matters 060
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/04/2026Most people have heard of the WHO. Far fewer could explain what it actually does. Having worked within it, I’ve tried to set out how it works in practice, and why it matters. medium.com/@adrian.este...medium.comWhat the World Health Organization actually does — and why it mattersAn epidemiologist and ex-WHO staff member explains how the WHO works, how it’s funded, and why global coordination still matters 0154
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 26/03/2026During COVID. many epidemiologists found themselves explaining complex, uncertain data in real time - often without any training in communication. I wrote about what it was actually like: medium.com/@adrian.este...medium.comI got called at 6am and sat alone in the dark for an hour.What it was actually like to explain a pandemic in real time 282
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 25/03/2026rdcu.be/e9ZSc My new article about epidemiologists and the media. Some of us got thrown into the media spotlight during the early years of the COVID pandemic, with little or no training.rdcu.beMedia engagement as a professional competency in the epidemiology workforce 151
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 12/03/2026Another good article from The Conversation about how measles is impacting on the USA (and many developed countries). theconversation.com/we-study-pan...theconversation.comWe study pandemics, and the resurgence of measles is a grim sign of what’s comingControlling the spread of many infections, including measles, depends on trust in public health, which is eroding. 071
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 12/03/2026Journals are always struggling for reviewers, but many of them have such awful websites, it puts people off from accepting. 120
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 12/03/2026This is one of the many wonderful projects I am involved with www.talkingscrubs.com.autalkingscrubs.com.auTalking ScrubsTalking Scrubs enable first-person communication for patients with permanent or temporary communication disabilities. 150
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026Temporarily locked out of X due to a verification issue. Account still visible, just awaiting reset. 370
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026This week’s uptick in SA COVID notifications highlights a broader issue. Without wastewater data or routine hospital reporting, we’re relying on a single surveillance stream. For respiratory viruses, triangulation is everything. 1163
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026South Australian COVID notifications rose from 79 to 104 this week. Small numbers — but a clear upward move. If this continues next week, we may be seeing the start of the summer wave that never quite materialised. 182
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026This week’s uptick in SA COVID notifications highlights a broader issue. Without wastewater data or routine hospital reporting, we’re relying on a single surveillance stream. For respiratory viruses, triangulation is everything. 040
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026South Australian COVID notifications rose from 79 to 104 this week. Small numbers — but a clear upward move. If this continues next week, we may be seeing the start of the summer wave that never quite materialised. 060
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 10/02/2026Adelaide Aquatic Centre closures look like a precautionary response, not an outbreak. Parasites such as Cryptosporidium are uncommon, chlorine-resistant, and well known to pool managers. Temporary closures and deep cleaning are standard practice. Risk remains low. Public health working as intended. 161
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/02/2026Case numbers reflect testing, not true spread. Hospitalisations, aged-care outbreaks and wastewater matter more — but in Australia they’re reported inconsistently. The new CDC has a real opportunity to fix this. 1214
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026COVID, flu and RSV haven’t suddenly changed. They now circulate year-round, but testing and reporting don’t. When surveillance weakens, outbreaks aren’t prevented — they’re detected later. Hospitalisations/aged-care homes/wastewater now matter more than raw case counts. Hopefully, CDC will help. 02511
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026This is why raw case numbers now mislead. Surveillance should shift from population-wide testing to fragments: hospitals, aged care, wastewater - however, very sporadic reporting in Australia at the moment. When signals weaken, outbreaks don’t vanish — they arrive late. 0135
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026COVID notifications in South Australia are very low for summer. Why? Short answer: this says more about surveillance than about the virus disappearing. 1216
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 05/02/2026Australia isn’t facing new viruses. We’re facing weaker surveillance. When testing and reporting drop, outbreaks don’t disappear — they’re just seen later, making events look sudden and alarming. 0379
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 05/02/2026Herd immunity isn’t ideology — it’s arithmetic. Dilute school-entry requirements and you shift risk onto infants, immunocompromised kids, and pregnant women. 210131
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 04/02/2026The South Australian Dept of Health has just announced a local measles case for someone with no travel history. This is a concern. measles is lurking out there. 1178
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 26/01/202635 degrees at 8am in the morning - ridiculous. Even my dog didn't want to go out for a walk! 080
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 26/01/2026BREAKING: WHO announces the UK has lost its measles elimination status. Australia is close to the same threshold. #Measles #VaccinesWork 3208
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 23/01/2026Lowest COVID weekly case numbers for at least 2 years. 0234
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 19/01/2026A lot of worry about myocarditis after COVID vaccines in kids. Large England study shows it’s rare, usually short-lived, and less common than after COVID infection itself. In short: infection carries the bigger risk. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...thelancet.comVascular and inflammatory diseases after COVID-19 infection and vaccination in children and young people in England: a retrospective, population-based cohort study using linked electronic health recor...Children and young people have higher risks of rare vascular and inflammatory diseases up to 12 months after a first COVID-19 diagnosis and higher risk of rare myocarditis or pericarditis up to 4 week... 0196
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 18/01/2026New variant of the flu virus is driving surge of cases across the US and Canada theconversation.com/new-variant-... Another good article from The Conversation. Unusually for The Conversation, I did notice a typo "subclave" instead of "subclade".theconversation.comNew variant of the flu virus is driving surge of cases across the US and CanadaA particularly infectious subvariant of influenza is keeping emergency room numbers high and causing especially severe illness in children. 0100
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 18/01/2026South Carolina reports hundreds of measles cases, with rapid growth in recent days — the U.S. is seeing one of the largest outbreaks in years amid low vaccination coverage. 0112
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 17/01/2026www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Study of essential workers finds neurological Long COVID linked to rises in plasma pTau-181 after infection, especially with long-lasting central symptoms (brain fog etc). pTau-181 increases assoc. with amyloid changes. Early biomarker signal, not diagnosis.sciencedirect.comIncreased phosphorylated tau (pTau-181) is associated with neurological post-acute sequelae of coronavirus disease in essential workers: a prospective cohort study before and after COVID-19 onsetThe COVID-19 pandemic led to a spectrum of post-acute sequelae including several neurological complications including cognitive dysfunction labelled N… 082
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 17/01/2026pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41452424/ Large meta-analysis (250M+ person-years) - COVID-19 linked to ~50% higher relative risk of some autoimmune diseases. Risk higher after severe infection, lower in vaccinated people. Evidence moderate–low → signal, not certainty. Supports vaccination & follow-up.pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.govAssociation between COVID-19 and New-Onset Autoimmune Diseases: Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 97 Million Individuals - PubMedSARS-CoV-2 infection may induce long-term immune dysregulation; however, its contribution to the development of autoimmune disease remains disputed. We aim to quantify the relative risk of new-onset autoimmune diseases following COVID-19 and its modifiers through a systematic review and meta-analysi … 184
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 17/01/2026www.audacy.com/wwjnewsradio... Reports that SARS-CoV-2 was found in wastewater from ~96% of flights sound alarming, but when global prevalence is high (2022), almost every large flight will include at least one infected passenger. This is non-infectious RNA. Useful for surveillance, not panic.audacy.comCoronavirus found in samples from 96% of flightsIf you believe it’s now safe to fly without a protective mask, you might want to think again. New research shows the COVID-19 virus has been found on nearly every flight. 062
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 16/01/2026I’m also posting public health & epidemiology commentary on X/Twitter: @profesterman 140
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 16/01/2026onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/EGKVVX... Small trial - but amazing results, and hope for those with resistant depressiononlinelibrary.wiley.comStanford neuromodulation therapy for treatment‐resistant depression: a randomized controlled trial confirming efficacy, and an EEG study providing insight into mechanism of action and a potentially predictive biomarker of efficacyYou have to enable JavaScript in your browser's settings in order to use the eReader. 051
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 15/01/2026www.ausdoc.com.au/news/experts... Ausdoc is a great website. Worth joiningausdoc.com.auSurgical masks are harming health workers — Professor Trisha Greenhalgh explains whyThe renowned GP researcher has endorsed a letter to the WHO calling for an update to its advice for doctors and healthcare workers. 291
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 12/01/2026Australia is seeing an off-season flu surge with 4,100+ lab-confirmed cases so far this year, many linked to highly transmissible influenza A(H3N2) subclade K. If symptomatic, get tested, consider antivirals if high-risk, and stay home. 2026 vaccines due Apr–May. #AusFlu #Flu2026 #PublicHealth 1155
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 08/01/2026jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... New epi methods guidance (TARGET) helps separate ‘association’ from credible causal inference in observational studies.jamanetwork.comTARGET 2025 StatementThis Special Communication introduces the Transparent Reporting of Observational Studies Emulating a Target Trial (TARGET) 2025 guideline, a consensus-based guidance for reporting observational studie... 060
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/01/2026www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/cov... We have a similar situation in Australia, with only 53% of people in Residential Aged Care up to date with their booster.cidrap.umn.eduCOVID continues to exact heavy toll on older US adults, study suggests 084
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/01/2026Viral outbreaks are always on the horizon – here are the viruses an infectious disease expert is watching in 2026 theconversation.com/viral-outbre... Good overview. We do now have vaccines against HPAI H5N1, and many countries are stockpiling doses.theconversation.comViral outbreaks are always on the horizon – here are the viruses an infectious disease expert is watching in 2026Viral infections are on the rise and spreading across the globe. 0147
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/01/2026Flu alert: Clade K H3N2 driving Australia's record 2025 season. Cases: 457k+ Jan–Nov (vs 200k norm). Extended May–Nov. Elderly ≥65 uptake: 60.5% – need >75% to blunt waves. Clade K drifted but vax ~30–40% VE vs severe. Get boosted. #EpiSky #FluAus 0143
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/01/2026www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...? Uptake now 93% Need 95% for herd immunity.theguardian.comRise in holiday measles infections sparks health alerts in NSW, SA and VictoriaCases of the highly contagious virus jumped nearly threefold in 2025 as immunisation rates declined 091
Adrian Esterman @profesterman.bsky.social · 07/01/2026HPV vaccination rates are down in Queensland. I have explained why in the Courier Mail and in an interview with 7News Sunshine Coast. It is mainly due to parents not signing or returning consent forms. Current system is paper-based and opt-in. Need electronic and opt-out. 091