iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Pieter Robberechts

Lorenzo Cascioli @lorenzocascioli.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

How long do actions echo? ⚽️🔊 🇮🇹 A few weeks ago I was back at the #MLSA workshop, held during ECML/PKDD in Napoli. 🔜 I presented our latest study on possession value frameworks, where we analyse the “near future” over which the effect of an action is measured.

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cata @catabush.com · 09/09/2026

A model-heavy newsletter today, with lots of thoughts on the decisions we make when building something. This week's Post-Match Report:

post-match-report.leaflet.pub

September 8: decisions decisions

all about models

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Another paper that we presented this week at MLSA briefly looks in the challenge of modelling out-of-distribution shots with boosted trees (and why TabPFN does it better). dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/events/MLSA2...

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Agreed! The appropriate name is “game state value.” A window is a practical but ad hoc, and likely suboptimal, way of assigning value. We don’t know the optimal approach, but the main message of the paper is that we should at least think critically about this design choice.

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PySport @pysport.org · 09/09/2026

𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐂𝐮𝐩 𝟐.𝟎 𝐢𝐬 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞. 🇪🇺🇺🇸 Following the success of the first edition, PySport and @skillcorner.bsky.social are inviting the analytics community to work with open-source 𝐟𝐨𝐨𝐭𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 (including body pose data) and 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 to turn new ideas into open-source projects with real value.

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Jesse Davis @jessejdavis.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

In the last chapter of her PhD thesis Lotte Bransen looked at penalty kicks. Several interesting things emerged. A simulation study indicated slightly higher save percentage if the goalkeeper did not always align directly in the center of the goal. 1/5

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

(4) teams fail at step one: actually putting the ball over the sideline

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Lorenzo Cascioli @lorenzocascioli.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

🥾⚽️ As noted by, e.g., @zonal-marking.bsky.social a strange trend of the 2026 World Cup is teams deliberately booting the ball out of play from kick-off. With the @royalbelgianfa.bsky.social we looked into this in 2024 for the @statsbomb.com conference.

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

This was a collaboration with @jessejdavis.bsky.social and many others across VIB and KU Leuven. I only played a small part. Still, it’s pretty amazing to see our sports analytics research translate into something with real societal impact. Read the full paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

nature.com

Behavioral screening defines the molecular Parkinsonism-related subgroups in Drosophila - Nature Communications

Familial Parkinsonism can arise from many genes. Here, the authors show that 24 genetically controlled Drosophila Parkinsonism models cluster into two molecular groups that converge on mitochondrial f...

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴? These findings show that the disease is better understood as a collection of related conditions. It explains why one treatment does not work for all patients, and brings personalized treatment for Parkinson’s a step closer.

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝘄𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱? While Parkinson's is typically considered as one disease defined by shared symptoms, we found two main groups and five subgroups of Parkinsonism—showing that it can be caused by mutations in many different genes.

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

3️⃣ Each fly is then described as a weighted mix of these patterns. These weights let us compare flies, cluster them, and detect subtle behavioral differences linked to genetic mutations.

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

2️⃣ We stack these into matrices and apply NMF. This automatically uncovers shared behavioral patterns (i.e., “behavioral building blocks”) across flies such as waking up early or being restless at night.

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

1️⃣ We convert each fly’s (x,y)-movement into vectors that capture when different behaviors occur (sleeping, eating, walking) throughout the day. Each fly → one vector per behavior.

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

We took that exact idea… and applied it to fruit flies 🪰 Using fly models with Parkinson’s-related mutations, we tracked their behavior over a week.

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

Back in 2019, Tom Decroos introduced Player Vectors — a method using Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) to capture soccer players’ playing styles. In short: Players are represented by where they act on the pitch and what they do there. More here: dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...

dtai.cs.kuleuven.be

Player Vectors: Characterizing Soccer Players' Playing Style

Welcome to the DTAI Sport Analytics lab’s blog! In our first blogpost, we give an intuitive explanation of our recent ECMLPKDD 2019 paper…

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

⚽➡️🧠 It’s a only small step from soccer analytics to Parkinson’s research… Over the past years, I collaborated on a project to improve how we understand Parkinson’s disease. It’s now published in Nature Communications: www.nature.com/articles/s41... Curious how soccer fits into this? Read on 👇

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Yes, great catch. We apply a small home advantage boost to the host countries, but the probabilities shown on the right don’t include that adjustment.

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Our 2026 World Cup predictions are live! 🔮 🇪🇸 Spain (24%) is the clear favourite, followed by 🇦🇷 Argentina (17%), 🇫🇷 France (11%), 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England (7%) and 🇧🇷 Brazil (5%). Explore every team’s path to the final in our interactive 👇 w/ @jessejdavis.bsky.social dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/world...

dtai.cs.kuleuven.be

Predicting the 2026 World Cup: Can Anyone Stop Spain?

Qatar 2022 saw Messi finally claim his World Cup trophy in an epic final against France. This year’s tournament is the first 48‑team World…

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Kostas Pelechrinis @kpelechrinis.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

If you are interested in Bayesian analysis and the Bayesian framework in general (which you should imo) I've put together an open course on coursera. Check it out here: www.coursera.org/specializati... #Bayesian #MachineLearning #DataScience

coursera.org

Applied Bayesian Data Analysis

Offered by University of Pittsburgh. Master Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis. Apply Bayesian inference and probabilistic modeling to solve ... Enroll for free.

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

What if you could simply “prompt” a model with a few shots and get accurate xG predictions? #TabPFN is making waves on academic benchmarks. We tested how it handles a real-world sports analytics problem. w/ Timo Martens & @jessejdavis.bsky.social dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...

dtai.cs.kuleuven.be

Tabular Foundation Models for xG: Can TabPFN Score Without Training?

For years, the answer to “what’s the best model for expected goals (xG)?” has been boringly consistent: a carefully tuned XGBoost model…

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

⏳ The submission deadline for our MLSA workshop is coming up soon: June 5, 2026 (just two weeks away)! Don’t miss the chance to share your ongoing research ideas or recent work on Sports+AI!

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

Our Workshop on Machine Learning and Data Mining for Sports Analytics (MLSA) will happen again as part of @ecmlpkdd.org! 📅 7 or 11 Sept 2026 📍 Naples, Italy 📝 Submissions due 5 June 2026 \w @hugoriosneto.bsky.social @azimmermdm.bsky.social & Maaike Van Roy dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/events/MLSA26/

dtai.cs.kuleuven.be

MLSA 2026

13th Workshop on Machine Learning and Data Mining for Sports Analytics at ECML/PKDD 2026

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

Don't miss the deadline for the LISS Football Analytics Symposium! Here are 3 reasons to get that abstract in 👇 1️⃣ Make an impact: Present your work directly to club analysts 2️⃣ Low effort: 2-page abstract (published research welcome!) 3️⃣ Learn from 4 of my favourite speakers on soccer analytics

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Jesse Davis @jessejdavis.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

⚽Event Announcement⚽ Leuven Institute of Sport Science’s #FootballAnalytics Symposium will take place on April 23! Current invited speakers are Prof. Pascal Bauer (DFB, USaarland) and @unravelsports.bsky.social Abstract submission closes on Feb 26 @ 17:00 CET www.kuleuven.be/liss/events/...

kuleuven.be

LISS Football Analytics Symposium

On the evening of 23 April 2026, LISS and the DTAI Sports Analytics Lab will host the Football Analytics Symposium. During this symposium, international speakers will share insights on the use of mach...

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Andy Cooper @andycoops83.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

It’s that time of year again: proposals are now being accepted to present at Opta Forum 2026, which is taking place in London at the end of March. If you are interested in taking part, the submission deadline is 9th February. Full details can be found ⬇️ www.statsperform.com/resource/opt...

statsperform.com

Opta Forum 2026: Call for Proposals - Stats Perform

Following the announcement of the return of the Opta Forum to London in 2026, we are pleased to confirm that submissions are now being accepted for the event’s annual data analytics competition. For o...

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Jan Van Haaren @janvanhaaren.be · 29/12/2025

Continuing the tradition, I have compiled an end-of-year overview of the soccer analytics content that I liked the most in 2025. This edition includes pointers to about 200 resources, including research papers, blog posts, news articles, podcasts, and webinars. janvanhaaren.be/posts/soccer...

janvanhaaren.be

Soccer Analytics 2025 Review – Jan Van Haaren

Collection of the soccer analytics content that I liked the most in 2025!

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Lorenzo Cascioli @lorenzocascioli.bsky.social · 22/12/2025

Can we measure the ability to block dangerous passes in soccer? ⛔️⚽️ We recently presented our latest research paper "Quantifying Off-Ball Defensive Impact through Cover Shadows" at the Hudl Performance Insights 2025 Conference: 📺 youtu.be/kf6far1Zst8?... 📝 static.hudl.com/craft/perfor...

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Jan Van Haaren @janvanhaaren.be · 30/10/2025

We're expanding the Club Brugge Football Data Science team. As our Football Data Scientist, you'll work with one of the most advanced analytics infrastructures in football to help management, scouting, and analysis staff turn data into better decisions. jobs.clubbrugge.be/en/football-data-scientist

jobs.clubbrugge.be

Football Data Scientist at Club Brugge

As a Football Data Scientist, you will be responsible for researching and developing advanced models and metrics for analyzing player and team performances and evaluating potential acquisitions for Cl...

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 23/10/2025

IMPECT released a season of public event data! ⚽ There’s already plenty of event data out there — so why care? Because IMPECT’s data adds some really cool and unique features, such as their Packing Zones. And with the new kloppy v3.18 release, it's really easy to get started with this dataset.

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PySport @pysport.org · 14/10/2025

We’re excited to launch the 𝐒𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐫 𝐗 𝐏𝐲𝐒𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐂𝐮𝐩 - a hackathon-style challenge that will bring together the community to collaborate, compete, and innovate using open-source SkillCorner data. 👉 Sign up pysport.org/analytics-cup

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Christina @christina6ys.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

Top stuff once again. Bringing validity to the conversation which is too often overlooked in the football analysis space.

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

Thanks! 🙏 Happy to hear it resonated.

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

Before an app launches, it undergoes usability testing. Why shouldn't an advanced sports metric? In our latest blog, we propose 4 criteria: 1️⃣ Trustworthy 2️⃣ Novel 3️⃣ Intuitive 4️⃣ Useful Then, we put VAEP to the test... \w @jessejdavis.bsky.social & Maaike Van Roy dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...

dtai.cs.kuleuven.be

How Do We Know a Metric Is Good? A Case Study on VAEP

In sports analytics, the primary goal is to develop indicators that quantify the skills, capabilities, and tendencies of athletes and…

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 12/09/2025

You can first combine the xG of multiple shots in a possession as 1 − ∏(1 − xGᵢ).

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Jesse Davis @jessejdavis.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

We can use xG to compute post-hoc win-draw-loss probabilities. Our new blogpost shows MCMC's estimates of these probabilities are unstable, computing them exactly is faster than approximating them, and MCMC's runtime strongly depends on its implementation. dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...

dtai.cs.kuleuven.be

Expected goals and the Monte Carlo Trap

On a team level, xG is often used to assess the quality of the goal scoring opportunities that a team creates and concedes. That is, it…

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 08/09/2025

Looking forward to the #MLSA25 workshop next week at @ecmlpkdd.org! We'll have some exciting research on soccer, ultimate frisbee, basketball and table tennis. ⚽🥏🏀🏓 Want a sneak peek? The papers are already available on the workshop website 👇

dtai.cs.kuleuven.be

MLSA 2025

Workshop on Machine Learning and Data Mining for Sports Analytics at ECML/PKDD 2025

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Christina @christina6ys.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

The Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference is an annual event dedicated to highlighting the latest sports research from the statistics and data science community. Registration for the 2025 CMSAConference is open. 🔗 www.cmsaconference.com

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John Muller @johnspacemuller.com · 04/09/2025

“What if, when the opposition has 11 players behind the ball, a centre-back decided it was more worthwhile to ‘kick for touch’ rather than attempt to play through midfield?” Oh boy do I have a research presentation for you

youtu.be

Boot it: A pragmatic alternative to build up play, Lorenzo Cascioli | Hudl Statsbomb Conference 2024

YouTube video by Hudl Statsbomb

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Jesse Davis @jessejdavis.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

Excited to announce a new paper together with @sigridolthof.bsky.social entitled "Perspectives on data analytics for gaining a competitive advantage in football: computational approaches to tactics". This is a synthesis article that has 3 key objectives www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.... 1 / 4

tandfonline.com

Perspectives on data analytics for gaining a competitive advantage in football: computational approaches to tactics

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 19/08/2025

It should work for the 2025/26 season. You only need to disable the cache once to discover the new season (see also github.com/probberechts...).

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PySport @pysport.org · 15/08/2025

🔷 𝐏𝐲𝐒𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐗 𝐏𝐲𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐄𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐡𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐚𝐥𝐬! 🔶 On December 9th @PyData Eindhoven and @pysport.org will organize 𝐏𝐲𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐄𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐡𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓! 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨: lnkd.in/eBGWKs3V

PyData Eindhoven 2025 collaboration with PySport. December 9th 2025.

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Chloe @chloesainsbury.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

Your fave women’s footie analytics gals (@cata-bush.bsky.social and myself, ofc) are at it again! Below is a VAEP inspired breakdown of the Women’s Euros group stages - read to see which players and teams have shown out or bombed (whoops, Netherlands 👀): open.substack.com/pub/beyondth...

open.substack.com

5 takeaways from the Women's Euro group stages

The Women’s Euros kicked off at the start of July and Catalina Bush and I launched an online app using the Value Actions by Estimating Probabilities (VAEP) framework. The app is being updated after ev...

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

Our Women's Euro 2025 predictions are out! 🔮 Spain 🇪🇸 is our model's favorite to win the title, with Germany 🇩🇪 close behind. Meanwhile, Belgium 🇧🇪 will most likely be eliminated in the group stage. w\ @jessejdavis.bsky.social dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...

dtai.cs.kuleuven.be

Predicting the 2025 Women's European Championship

The UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 will be held in Switzerland in July. Will Spain capture the title after winning the World Cup in 2023? Or will…

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Pieter Robberechts @probberechts.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

📊 Our interactive visualization provides detailed odds for each team advancing past the group stage and eventually winning the tournament. We will update the probabilities after each round. dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/euro2...

dtai.cs.kuleuven.be

FIFA World Cup 2022 Predictions

Predictions for the UEFA 2021 European Championship

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