A Bayesian look at athletic aging, and whether the Wizard of Boz will decline

This one has been long time in the making in terms of being in my mind for years but at the same time not having the appropriate data (or time) to do something with it. But thanks to SkillCorner th…

How RCV can overturn mild pluralities of polarizing candidates in favor of more broadly acceptable candidates

A Bayesian interpretation of fixture importance through the lens of the Champions League

YouTube video by PitchAndCulture

Using Uncertainty, Utility, and a Little Luck to Fund Better Science

If reviewers can’t reliably tell the difference between top grant proposals, why should they pretend they can? A new wave of funders is turning to lotteries to break the tie.

Knowing something precisely and being able to predict what it will produce are not the same thing.

I saw this paper today: “Fighting Fire with Fire: Infusing AI into Peer Review to Sustain Quality Scholarship” at Management Science, and…

When You Have to Create the Problem to Prove It Exists

LLMs may generate convincing answers, but how trustworthy are the results? Hidden knowledge acquired during pre-training can influence conclusions without the user realizing it.

Every pundit has said it at some point during a shootout: “you want a big goalkeeper back there”, “height fills the frame”, “height makes the target look smaller&#8221…

I applied the same math US courts use to detect gerrymandering to the Aegean and Ionian. The results are alarming. The culprit has been…

Matt Freese, who holds an Ivy League economics degree, came out of practically nowhere to secure the job as the U.S. national team’s starting goalkeeper—and his analytical approach has been integral t...

YouTube video by Aris History Channel

Despite claims that the modern NBA is repetitive and predictable, first-half leads have become larger, more extreme, and more likely to…

When people talk about NBA lottery luck, they usually focus on one thing: how many spots a team moved up. But that treats all lottery wins as equal. They aren’t. Winning the No. 1 pick in a f…

ALT: a man stands behind a podium that says draft lottery on it

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