Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Ah that's too bad, thanks for responding though 010
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Awesome stuff Jens! Do you know if the LFS microdata pre 1976 exist and if it publicly available anywhere? 100
Reposted by Canadian AquaMichael Hobbes @michaelhobbes.bsky.social · 20/01/202610 years of this shit 16781521113
Reposted by Canadian AquaJens von Bergmann @jensvb.bsky.social · 12/01/2026Introducing CanViz, my little side project over the break to make StatCan tables more accessible.canviz.mountainmath.caCanViz - Canadian Data Visualization ToolInteractive data visualization tool for exploring and analyzing Statistics Canada data tables. Browse thousands of Canadian statistics, create custom plots, and download data in multiple formats. 712443
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 04/12/2025Ya they started that like two releases ago I think. With the new revisions GDP per capita bottomed out at 2019 levels at the start of 2024 and now it's rushing upwards. I properly calculated it below (assumed no growth in population for Q3 2025) 020
Reposted by Canadian AquaJens von Bergmann @jensvb.bsky.social · 17/11/2025Updated Urban Greenness data out from StatCan is out today, quantifying the "average greenness" on a 250m grid. Data is annual and goes back to 2000 and allows for some comparison (although some caution is advised). 1176
Reposted by Canadian AquaKent Fellows @gkfellows.bsky.social · 11/11/2025The Jobs Report, brought to you by DoorDash. 162
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 07/11/2025Yup, reading that was depressing. They had a budget of 873m in 2023-2024, 90% of that is personnel, so many people are going to lose their jobs :/ But hey! At least the cuts won't be as bad as the Harper ones! 🫠 010
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 06/11/2025Looks like my prediction that the fall in GDP per capita would be greatly attenuated by revisions was correct! And keep in mind only data up to 2022 is finalized! 030
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 06/11/2025With the release of the 2022 supply and use tables and revisions, here's what the updated GDP per capita looks like. We'll have to wait later this month for 2025 updates. I just did a crude upward lift here since we only got annual up to 2024. 110
Reposted by Canadian AquaDenis Trailin @denis.trailin.ca · 05/11/2025The media elites don't want you to know that immigrants out earn Canadians by a substantial margin, including the 2021 cohort 121
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 05/11/2025Implicitly blaming international students for rising youth/overall unemployment. No wonder no one wants to come! And the private sector backs them up with it too. Like this is the kinda garbage pumped out. bsky.app/profile/prio... 020
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 31/10/2025I just had to say something on this report by TD. Their argument for why unemployment would be higher in counterfactual world with higher population growth is drawing a straight line. Like my god, bank economists truly are topic economic minds. 010
Reposted by Canadian AquaJens von Bergmann @jensvb.bsky.social · 15/10/2025Workday morning rush hour for comparison. More bus lines, and more service. (Still missing buses not sending realtime data, as well as sea bus and skytrain which don't show up in the realtime data feed.) 2242
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 15/10/2025Lol I'm gonna post this over on Twitter wonder what the insane people over there will say 😆 110
Reposted by Canadian AquaDenis Trailin @denis.trailin.ca · 14/10/2025I find it funny that the anti-immigration people like to cite Denmark as their success story when their youth unemployment is higher than Canada's 253
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 15/10/2025Crazy how Denmark's youth unemployment rate starting going up at the exact same time as in Canada, must've been all the temporary foreign workers. 230
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 29/09/2025Hahaha yeah I saw him post that over on Twitter. He's run out of series to use now 🤣 000
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 05/08/2025Data from www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11f0019www150.statcan.gc.ca 000
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 05/08/2025In addition, if StatCan were to adopt a more comprehensive definition of intangible capital (will not happen tbc) GDP would see a lift of 6.6%, 2019 would see a lift of 7.1%. If we trend the trend forward to 2024 we'd get 7.4%. 100
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 05/08/2025With the adoption of the 2025 SNA coming around in 2029-2030, here's the impact on nominal GDP from the inclusion of data as recommended by it. We see a slight shift upward (average of 2.2%) over 2000-2019 with it's impact growing over time. If the trend holds 2024 will be ≈2.6% high 100
Reposted by Canadian AquaPhil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 31/07/2025A significant study released by Statistics Canada this morning casts new and surprising light on real per capita regional income disparities in Canada. After PPP adjustment, Ontario and BC ranked lower in 2021 while the poorer regions correspondingly higher. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quo... 031
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 05/07/2025Lol we got an "urban studies" guy saying that immigrants are stealing jobs because the average labour force participation rate is falling. In addition he cites Borjas as his proof that immigrants suppress wages LOL nationalpost.com/opinion/joel...nationalpost.comJoel Kotkin: The West's immigration reckoning is hereSoaring immigration has coincided with steadily dropping labour market participation 000
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 26/06/2025I just did it for my own personal enjoyment I guess. I replicated Diewert and Yu's paper here www.csls.ca/ipm/24/IPM-2... and made it quarterly instead of annual so it's very timely.csls.ca 010
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 25/06/2025And there is labour composition. You can interpret this as improvement in the "quality" of the labour force. Line go up means higher quality workers. 000
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 25/06/2025And there's "Capital deepening" You can see absolutely massive growth here from 2000 to 2017 coming from the oil sands boom, not much growth since then. And no, Mark Carney will not make another oil sands boom pipeline or not. 100
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 25/06/2025An update to my TFP calculation. Made a coding error with the pre-2006 LFS data so it strongly overstated labour composition growth. 220
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 25/06/2025Wow even managed to squeeze into the article top minds like Ron Butler and Stephen Punwasi. Wonderful quote from Butler here. 110
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 21/06/2025Just one more graph. The original used usual hours worked, this one uses *actual* hours worked. It grows slightly faster. 000
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 21/06/2025Capital services is the capital stock*capital composition, and labour services is hours worked*labour composition 110
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 21/06/2025There's the four series together, roughly TFP is calculated as TFP ~ ΔGDP-ΔCapital services-ΔLabour services 100
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 21/06/2025Ok there's the final product for quartrely total factor productivity! Happy with this for now. 120
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 19/06/2025I followed the methodology set out by Diewert and Yu (2012) as well as Cao (2021). I made some (what I think are improvements) to the methodology as well. Also keep in mind that there are significant uncertainties at play here, most important part is the trend. 110
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 19/06/2025Note the absolute explosion in capital services coming from the oil sands boom! Capital services growth really started rebounding until the pandemic hit :( 100
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 19/06/2025Really rough first pass at calculating TFP for Canada. A lot of stuff I'm really not happy about here that I'll be revisiting. I will also be extending this further back in time as well. 110
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 03/06/2025Also maybe the keen eyed observer sees that labour doesn't any trend break despite the rapid surge in the NPR population. 000
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 03/06/2025Glad to see my measure pretty closely matches StatCan's measure. I don't expect them to be the same, one notable methodology difference is that I used nearly double the number of worker types. I also used a Törnqvist index, while they use a Fisher index. Both area superlative indices and near same. 100
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 03/06/2025LFS PUMFs were used with a greater number of worker types My measure of labour quality displays evidence of "chain drift" as noted by the difference between calculating it at an annual rate vs quarterly. Benchmarking the quarterly series to the annual one, helps reduce it. 2/n 100
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 03/06/2025In the process of replicating and extending Diewert and Yu (2012) where they calculate Total Factor Productivity but I will be doing it on a quarterly basis and extending it to the Present. Multiplying labour quality by hours worked gives us our "labour services" input. Details below 1/n 110
Reposted by Canadian AquaPhil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 24/05/2025Long-term interest rate yields on US Treasury securities have trended up since Trump's 'Liberation Day'. The risk of default has never been higher as the fiscal deficit explodes and uncertainty stalls private decision-making under a President who made a career out of welshing on his personal debt. 052
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 24/05/2025Twitter is completely FUCKED right now. Unusable 🤧 What will I do for entertainment now??? 010
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 23/05/2025Here's what it looks like seasonally adjusted. Substantially less interpretable when it comes to study permits. 000
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 23/05/2025An update on permits issued for study, temporary foreign worker program, and international mobility program. Reminder that this includes renewals and new permits! Looks like study permit issuances is going up again after falling, but exercise caution with this series! 110
Reposted by Canadian AquaPhil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 22/05/2025As the US drives its international indebtedness ever higher, Canada's net asset position keeps expending. Our financial picture is much better balanced. The Trump budget plan for this year will drive US indebtedness even further down, necessitating more borrowing and further weakening the US$. 152
Reposted by Canadian AquaKevin Milligan @kevinmilligan.bsky.social · 21/05/2025A US deficit of $2.3 trillion is about 7.5% of expected US GDP in 2026. Canada is in the range of 2% defict/GDP. Their 10 year bond is about 4.5%; ours is about 3.5%. 23416
Canadian Aqua @priorconfirmed.bsky.social · 21/05/2025There will be a reckoning when they are forced to fix the fiscal situation in the future, it will be very very painful for them 030
