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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 4h

An interesting study by the BoC's Benjamin Straus finds that the NPR surge and higher interest rates were the big factors causing Canadian asking rents to surge between 2002 and 2024. The paper contains other interesting findings as well. www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/spar...

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

New survey data released by STC today indicate that Canadian business enterprise in-house research and development expenditures, which were flat in 2024 and 2025, are expected to increase only marginally in 2026. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Real GDP was flat in July, STC reported today. One way to cut through the volatility in month-to-month real GDP growth rates is to focus on the 6-month % change expressed at annual rates. On that basis the economy has been performing quite well in recent months. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The chart here shows Government of Canada revenue, expenditure and debt accumulations as % of GDP, 1990 Q1 to 2026 Q2. Since 2024 Q1, expenditure has been flat while revenue has declined. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The first seven months of LFS and SEPH data this year show that the reconciled differences in the 12-month % changes between the two surveys have returned to the relatively small range seen in the pre-pandemic period after having widened considerably between 2020 and 2025. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

SEPH employment, updated to July 2026 by STC today, continues its rising trend, up 0.1% in the month and 0.9% vs. July 2025. Non-O&G mining has been a major contributor, up 4.9% YoY although down -0.5% in July. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Quarterly population growth rates continue to be at historically low levels (the peak COVID quarters excepted) as NPR levels are gradually brought back down to earth. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Canada's population increased by 42,844 people (0.2%) in the 2nd quarter, StatCan reported today, with decreasing non-permanent residents continuing to be a drag on growth. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Here's a link to a very interesting speech a couple of days ago at the ECB by Paul Krugman in which, among other things, he looks at the role of economic size and economic power in world trade, focussing in particular on US, EU and Canada. www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0Vx...

youtube.com

Live - ECB Annual Research Conference 2026 (Day 2)

YouTube video by European Central Bank

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

There is considerable variation in the gap between the unemployment rate and the EI insurance rate across provinces. It's currently around 5% in ON, AB and BC, 3-4% in NS, QC, MB and SK and close to zero in NL, PE and NB. This relates to the 'economic region' criterion in the EI program. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Prices for new housing continued to drop in August. They were down -0.1% in the month and -2.0% over the last twelve, StatCan reported this morning. They have been on a slow decline for 4 years now. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The pickup in Canadian new car sales, in value terms, that had begun in January, fell off a bit in July according to data released by StatCan today. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Statistics Canada reported this morning that labour productivity increased 1% in the second quarter. #cdnecon philipsmith.ca/labour_produ...

philipsmith.ca

Canadian Quarterly Labour Productivity Dashboard

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

The joy of winning and the pain of losing static01.nyt.com/athletic/upl...

static01.nyt.com

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

StatCan reported capital expenditure survey results for Canada's O&G industry yesterday. Investment, seasonally adjusted, was up 7% compared to the first quarter, but down -2.3% compared to a year earlier. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

View my three Canadian economic statistics browsers here: Quarterly nat. accts: philipsmith.ca/nataccts/ Monthly national economic indicators: philipsmith.ca/macroindicat... Monthly by-province economic indicators: philipsmith.ca/provindicato... #cdnecon

philipsmith.ca

Canadian Income and Expenditure Accounts Dashboard

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

A reminder: If you are interested to view the latest monthly economic indicators for a Canadian province, you can do so in my provincial economic indicators dashboard: philipsmith.ca/provindicato...

philipsmith.ca

Canadian Provincial and Territorial Economic Indicators

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Total hours worked in Canada rose 0.5% in June, continuing the solid uptrend that started in February this year StatCan reported this morning (in SEPH). #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Here is a chart showing the pre-trade-war relative trends in Canada's imports from the US, by major NAPCS product group. It will be interesting to watch how these lines move in the year ahead. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

BEA released its second estimates of US real GDP in the second quarter. The US economy grew 1.5% at annual rates. See my browser at the address below for details. #economy #useconomy #business #gdp philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/NatAcctsUSA/

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Part of Paul Krugman's (paulkrugman@substack.com) commentary today on the US-CA trade war. www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPcy...

youtube.com

Alanis Morissette - You Oughta Know (Official 4K Music Video)

YouTube video by Alanis Morissette

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Here's my CPI browser with all of the price indexes released by Statistics Canada today. #cdnecon philipsmith.ca/CPI/cpi.html

philipsmith.ca

Canadian Monthly CPI Dashboard

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Perhaps already proposed, I don't know, but if Canada must retaliate I suggest we impose 5% export taxes on electricity, potash and O&G, using the revenues from the tax to compensate firms in the those industries as much as we can. If the US retaliates to this, raise the tax to 10%. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Herewith a simulation of Canadian labour market monthly flows among employment, unemployment and not in the labour force, done using the Claude AI Agent. #cdnecon philipsmith.ca/Cdn_labour_f...

philipsmith.ca

Canada's labour-market conveyor — a particle view

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Foreign purchases of Canadian financial assets have been on a tear for the last two years. Evidently foreign investors' confidence in our economy is very much on the rise. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

The hours-worked growth gap since January 2024, between the O&G-producing and non-O&G-producing provinces remains wide. In July it widened further in goods-producing industries and narrowed in services-producing industries. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

philip635.substack.com/p/measuring-...

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

On July 29 StatCan released a 'corrected' version of its table 36-10-0713-01 with annual labour productivity statistics for 2025, by industry and province. They contrast greatly with the annual version of the quarterly LP statistics released June 3. Hard to know what's going on with Canadian LP.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Canada's monthly exports to EU nations are volatile, but have been trending up since early 2024. They plunged during the pandemic period, but have now recovered to the pre-pandemic level. The government is doing what it can to keep them growing at a strong pace. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Among the economically advanced democracies, it seems the smaller ones tend to have the most prosperity. The US, UK and Canada should learn from this although what the key lessons are, I am not sure. More decentralization perhaps? Or perhaps the opposite? prosperityindex.com/rankings

prosperityindex.com

Rankings :: The Legatum Prosperity Index

Explore the Legatum Prosperity Index rankings. Compare how 161 countries perform across the Development, Freedom, and Society domains with detailed pillar breakdowns.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

With 0.9% real growth (3.5% at annual rates), as reported by Statistics Canada today, the Canadian economy was steaming in 2026 Q2. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

SEPH's estimate of weekly total employee compensation fell 0.2% in May reflecting a 0.3% drop in average hours worked, a 0.1% decrease in average hourly compensation and a 0.1% rise in employment. The 12-month increase was 3.8%. philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/SEPHbrowser/ #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

There's concern recently about Carney not being sufficiently transparent, eg. the bridge deal and tariff discussions. I think he is not transparent on some issues because he sees potential advantages for Canada that the incompetent Trump administration does not. There's no point in telling them.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

StatCan released restaurant and tavern receipts data for May 2026 today. As we all remember and as seen in the chart, the industry took a big hit during and after the pandemic, but it is doing well again now. Receipts were up 0.9% in May and 5.5% since May 2025. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Canadian retail sales have been doing exceptionally well since the start of the year. StatCan today released numbers for May and June at 1.0% and 0.4% and the YoY increase to June was 4.9% (according to the advance estimate). #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Here's my latest (free) Substack paper on the frailties of productivity statistics. philip635.substack.com/p/how-to-rea...

philip635.substack.com

How to read the productivity statistics

They must be interpreted very cautiously

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

In June, Canada's CPI dropped 0.1% after seasonal adjustment, although it was up 2.8% on a YoY basis and 2.7% on a 3-month annualized basis. philipsmith.ca/CPI

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

LFS employment overall has hardly shown any growth since the end of 2024, except for self-employment. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

New car sales data for May were released by StatCan today. The volume of new motor vehicle sales has turned up this year and is rising as a percentage of the estimated existing stock. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

The cyclical component share of GDP (consumer durables, residential construction, business non-farm inventories) tends to drop when approaching or in a recession. Based on the unemployment rate, Canada is not in recession. Nevertheless the cyclical share has been falling since 2022 Q1. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Labour income is more than half of GDP and the LFS provides an early reading on it. The LFS data for June show labour compensation to be up 4.2% year-over-year, one of the smallest increases since February 2021. Employment was up 0.5%, average hours worked 0.3% and average hourly earnings 3.3%.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

philipsmith.ca/macroindicat...

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Canada's imports rose 0.4% in volume terms in May while our exports decreased -0.1%, StatCan reported today. In current dollar terms however, exports increased 0.9% while imports edged down 0.2%, as the terms of trade moved in Canada's favour. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

The decline in Canada's GDP per capita explained. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Canada's real GDP remains essentially on the same trend line seen from Jan 2010 to Feb 2020, although it had appeared to be well below that line until the national accounts revisions that were done last year. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

Real growth in the computer systems design and related services industry ground to a halt three years ago and has remained flat since. It grew at an 8.7% compound average annual rate from 1997 until the standstill. This may be both caused by, and a cause of the Cdn productivity slowdown. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Those interested in the arcane topic of national accounts revisions might find this app useful: philipsmith.ca/revisions

philipsmith.ca

GDP Revisions Analyzer · StatCan

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