Sign in

Positive Residual

@positiveresidual.com
4.6K followers 135 following 198 posts

Sports analytics and strategy. Creating tools for winning teams in basketball, baseball, and soccer. Previous contributions: Nylon Calculus, Cleaning the Glass, and The Ringer. positiveresidual.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Positive Residual
Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
The great @zachlowenba.bsky.social often refers to using "VORPs and SCHNORPs" in award evaluation. I put together a similar set of data for WNBA awards and wanted to share the top offense/defense ratings and overall wins above replacement from averaging four advanced metrics.
Rank/Player/Offense/Defense/Total (Value)
1. A'ja Wilson: 5.0/2.3/3.6 (9.0)
2. Napheesa Collier: 5.0/1.9/3.4 (7.4)
3. Allisha Gray: 3.7/-0.3/1.7 (6.9)
4. Jackie Young: 3.7/0.2/1.9 (6.6)
5. Nneka Ogwumike: 2.7/0.6/1.6 (6.3)
6. Alyssa Thomas: 2.2/1.3/1.8 (5.9)
7. Veronica Burton: 2.2/0.8/1.5 (5.6)
8. Aliyah Boston: 2.4/0.4/1.4 (5.6)
9. Kelsey Mitchell: 3.7/-1.2/1.3 (5.6)
10. Dearica Hamby: 2.8/-0.2/1.3 (5.6)
11. Rhyne Howard: 3.2/0.2/1.7 (5.4)
12. Sabrina Ionescu: 2.9/0.3/1.6 (5.4)
13. Skylar Diggins: 2.0/0.4/1.2 (5.3)
14. Brionna Jones: 2.4/0.5/1.4 (5.1)
15. Gabby Williams: 0.1/1.7/0.9 (4.8)
16. Courtney Williams: 1.3/0.9/1.1 (4.8)
17. Paige Bueckers: 3.0/-0.5/1.3 (4.8)
18. Breanna Stewart: 2.0/1.8/1.9 (4.7)
19. Kayla McBride: 2.2/0.1/1.2 (4.6)
20. Alanna Smith: 1.2/1.3/1.2 (4.4)
1528314
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 18/08/2025
Here’s the strikeout pitch by Alex Vesia against Manny Machado in last year’s NLDS. It’s a slider rather than the fastball this afternoon, but the location and objective is the same.
010
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 18/08/2025
This strikeout pitch by Alex Vesia against Manny Machado is similar in location to the one in the NLDS last postseason. It’s right in the hands, knotting the batter up with two strikes.
121
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 14/08/2025
Here's the Orlando Magic schedule for January, when they play two Global Games against Memphis in London and Berlin. Despite the overseas travel, the Magic have the second easiest January schedule after the Clippers. positiveresidual.com/shiny/nba/ #NBASky
031
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 14/08/2025
Utah, Philadelphia, and Sacramento all have 14 true rest advantages, tied for the most in the NBA. On the opposite end, Charlotte, Houston, and Memphis have the fewest at 7. positiveresidual.com/shiny/nba/ #NBASky
100
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 14/08/2025
The Sixers lead the league in back-to-back games with 16 alongside Charlotte, Denver, Phoenix, and Washington. Philadelphia also has 14 true rest advantages -- tied, as well, for the most in the NBA. positiveresidual.com/shiny/nba/ #NBASky
100
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 14/08/2025
The NBA Calendar App has been updated with the 2025-26 regular season schedule. Here are the teams with the toughest schedules. positiveresidual.com/shiny/nba/ #NBASky
160
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 14/08/2025
The NBA Calendar app will be updated upon the release of the 2025-26 regular season schedule: positiveresidual.com/shiny/nba/ #NBASky
031
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 14/08/2025
Shohei Ohtani vs. Mike Trout — complete pitch sequence. Ohtani struck him out on a full-count sweeper, a similar pitch to the one in the World Baseball Classic, except it was inside.
062
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 21/07/2025
The Dodgers are 6-13 against the NL Central — by far, the worst record by a division leader against a specific division. The only other teams with losing records are: Detroit: 9-12 vs AL Central Philadelphia: 11-13 vs NL Central
000
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 03/07/2025
I am anticipating the tears the next time you go on the Yahoo podcast. 😀
010
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 02/07/2025
The quality of this tweet just about matches the Lakers’ offseason. 😂
010
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 01/07/2025
The Lakers will quickly become winners the moment they sign Ayton and reduce you to tears. 😂
230
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 23/06/2025
Outstanding stretch for TJ McConnell in the midpoint of the 3rd quarter — three difficult drives and shots in the paint. #NBASky
000
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 23/06/2025
Indiana is up by 1 at the half due to this 3 by Andrew Nembhard. Ghost screen, then a 45, then Nembhard creates for the pull-up. #NBASky
130
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 23/06/2025
TJ McConnell keeps the dribble alive, crosses over to attack along the baseline, and finishes with the reverse layup. Gorgeous. #NBASky
140
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 23/06/2025
OKC is up by 2 at 7:14 in the 2nd quarter. The Thunder have the turnover edge, 1 vs 6, while the Pacers are within distance due to 3s: 6/11 vs 2/9. #NBASky
110
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 23/06/2025
Wonderful creation by Bennedict Mathurin off the ghost screen. He sees spaces off the catch, attacks, and finishes the possession with a putback. #NBASky
110
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 23/06/2025
Tyrese Haliburton starts the game hitting 3/4 from deep. Great defensive possession here from OKC, but the Pacers remain patient and find him for the 3 late in the shot clock. #NBASky
000
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 23/06/2025
2025 NBA Finals, Game 7 Thread: Andrew Nembhard makes his presence felt early in the first quarter. He puts up the first two points of the game on a pull-up at the elbow, then has a great defensive possession against SGA here. #NBASky
230
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 18/06/2025
LeBron’s next contract: $400 million, with $380 million deferred through 2050.
031
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 12/06/2025
Between both teams, the lineup with the worst point differential was the Pacers' starting unit, which lost its 12 minutes on the floor by 9. Indiana saw its best results in the minutes played by Obi Toppin, Bennedict Mathurin, and TJ McConnell. #NBASky
000
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 12/06/2025
The Thunder shot 46% from 3-point range tonight -- their highest 3P% in a loss this season. #NBASky www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=hi...
111
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 12/06/2025
As with Game 1, the Pacers hit the 60% mark in true shooting. They shot more efficiently overall than OKC, despite having lower FG% at the rim and behind the arc. They also had more shot attempts. #NBASky
121
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 12/06/2025
In just 22.4 minutes, Bennedict Mathurin led all scorers with his career playoff-high 27 points on 15 true shot attempts and 32% usage. The Pacers outscored OKC by 15 during his time on the floor. #NBASky
141
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 12/06/2025
Incredible defensive play in the clutch by Myles Turner. Amazing. #NBASky
2222
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 06/06/2025
The Turner - Nembhard - Toppin - Haliburton - Nesmith lineup outscored OKC by 14 in its 6.9 minutes on the floor. It propelled the pivotal Indiana run in the middle part of the 4th quarter. #NBASky
050
Reposted by Positive Residual
Anchorage Man @sethpartnow.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
This is the gamble that OKC takes. If they don’t turn you over, you’ll get looks. Indy had only 4 TOs in the second half.
3395
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 06/06/2025
The Pacers took 20% of their shots from the corners and hit 10 of 16 in that zone. #NBASky
1153
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 06/06/2025
The Thunder had an enormous turnover advantage (24 vs 6), which translated into 17 more true shot attempts than Indiana had. But the Pacers had the edge in offensive rebounding and, importantly, in shot efficiency. Their true shooting hit 60%, driven by a 46% field goal percentage from deep. #NBASky
191
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 06/06/2025
The last 22.8 seconds of NBA Finals Game 1 — did we expect anything else? Shai misses the midrange fadeaway, Indiana bypasses the timeout, and Tyrese Haliburton knocks down the clutch jumper, just as he has done throughout the playoffs. Incredible. #NBASky
4202
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 04/06/2025
Multiple views of Max Muncy’s 9th inning, game-tying home run, including the home-plate perspective. He got all of it.
010
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 03/06/2025
@inpredict.bsky.social has excellent WNBA data, including win probability charts. www.inpredictable.com?m=1
inpredictable.com
inpredictable
at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics)
051
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 01/06/2025
Pascal Siakam, the Eastern Conference Finals MVP, finished the series with 31 points on 23 true shot attempts and 30% usage. He also had 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks, and 1 steal. #NBASky
040
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 01/06/2025
Incredible shooting from the Pacers to clinch their Finals berth: 67% true shooting (their highest in the series) while making over half of their 3s. Two-thirds of their baskets were assisted including 14 of 17 from deep. #NBASky
152
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 29/05/2025
Absolute destruction:
001
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 29/05/2025
Timberwolves-Thunder Game 5: Minnesota fails to break double digits in the first quarter. They had just 9 points on 24 possessions. #NBASky
100
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 28/05/2025
Tyrese Haliburton's exceptional Game 4: 32 points on 26 attempts and 29% usage, including 5/12 from deep. All of his 15 assists led to shots in the paint or 3s. He also had 12 boards, 4 steals, and 0 turnovers. Haliburton lived up to his top-5 offensive mark (dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual). #NBASky
171
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 28/05/2025
Knicks-Pacers Game 4: At the half, Indiana has the edge in shooting efficiency and turnovers, while New York has the edge in offensive rebounding and free throws. The Pacers' offensive pace is under 12 seconds per possession; the Knicks are close to 15. AST-to-TOV: IND at 3.4, NYK at 1. #NBASky
000
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 22/05/2025
The Knicks were just 1/7 after dead-ball possessions and live-ball turnovers -- much lower than Indiana's 11/14 in similar situations. #NBASky
010
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 22/05/2025
In line with the turnover data above, Indiana was 11/14 after dead-ball possessions and live-ball turnovers. #NBASky
130
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 22/05/2025
Shooting efficiency was level for the Knicks and the Pacers, but the latter had the decisive turnover advantage. While New York coughed up the ball 15 times, Indiana did so just 7 times (all off steals). Points off turnovers? Indiana had 27 versus New York's 4. #NBASky
120
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 22/05/2025
The Siakam - Toppin - Haliburton - Nesmith - Sheppard lineup outscored the Knicks by 12 points during its 3.4 minutes on the floor. #NBASky
130
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 22/05/2025
Spectacular game from Tyrese Haliburton, accumulating 31 points on 25 true shot attempts and 28% usage. He was just 4/12 from 3, but he got to the paint repeatedly. His 11 assists contributed 27 points against only 2 turnovers. He was +43% win probability added per @inpredict.bsky.social. #NBASky
120
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 22/05/2025
Phenomenal performance by Aaron Nesmith, who scored 30 points on 15 true shot attempts (100% true shooting), including 8/9 from deep. He also played impactful defense and sparked the Pacers' late-game surge. #NBASky
150
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 22/05/2025
The Knicks had a 99% win probability as late as the 58-second mark of regulation, when they went up by 9 points on a Jalen Brunson layup. The rest was history. Incredible comeback by the Pacers. #NBASky www.espn.com/nba/game/_/g...
4639
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 21/05/2025
Thereafter, Maya Caldwell stuck with Kelsey Mitchell and Nia Coffey with Natasha Howard, preventing the screen at the top of the key from creating an advantage. By the time the ball was inbounded, Atlanta had all players covered. Howard was forced to create, and it resulted in a block. #WNBASky
020
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 21/05/2025
But even before the block, Brionna Jones’s defense was pivotal. Ordinarily, the “small” applies the cross screen from the weakside for the “big,” but Indiana reversed it. The idea might have been to inbound to Aliyah Boston, who would pass back to Caitlin Clark. But Jones took this away. #WNBASky
131
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 21/05/2025
Thread: Great end-of-game defense by the Atlanta Dream to escape with the win in Indiana. The Fever went with a variation of “Winner.” The Dream defended the cross screen and the weakside superbly, including a clutch block by Nia Coffey. #WNBASky
151
Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 21/05/2025
Free throws proved to be the Fever's undoing against the Dream. Indiana converted just 16/26, including an 0/4 night for Natasha Howard, who had her opportunities down the stretch, and Aliyah Boston's lone miss in crunchtime. Another note: Atlanta had a sizable edge in 3-point frequency. #WNBASky
010