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Positive Residual

@positiveresidual.com
4.6K followers 135 following 198 posts

Sports analytics and strategy. Creating tools for winning teams in basketball, baseball, and soccer. Previous contributions: Nylon Calculus, Cleaning the Glass, and The Ringer. positiveresidual.com

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Reposted by Positive Residual
Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
The great @zachlowenba.bsky.social often refers to using "VORPs and SCHNORPs" in award evaluation. I put together a similar set of data for WNBA awards and wanted to share the top offense/defense ratings and overall wins above replacement from averaging four advanced metrics.
Rank/Player/Offense/Defense/Total (Value)
1. A'ja Wilson: 5.0/2.3/3.6 (9.0)
2. Napheesa Collier: 5.0/1.9/3.4 (7.4)
3. Allisha Gray: 3.7/-0.3/1.7 (6.9)
4. Jackie Young: 3.7/0.2/1.9 (6.6)
5. Nneka Ogwumike: 2.7/0.6/1.6 (6.3)
6. Alyssa Thomas: 2.2/1.3/1.8 (5.9)
7. Veronica Burton: 2.2/0.8/1.5 (5.6)
8. Aliyah Boston: 2.4/0.4/1.4 (5.6)
9. Kelsey Mitchell: 3.7/-1.2/1.3 (5.6)
10. Dearica Hamby: 2.8/-0.2/1.3 (5.6)
11. Rhyne Howard: 3.2/0.2/1.7 (5.4)
12. Sabrina Ionescu: 2.9/0.3/1.6 (5.4)
13. Skylar Diggins: 2.0/0.4/1.2 (5.3)
14. Brionna Jones: 2.4/0.5/1.4 (5.1)
15. Gabby Williams: 0.1/1.7/0.9 (4.8)
16. Courtney Williams: 1.3/0.9/1.1 (4.8)
17. Paige Bueckers: 3.0/-0.5/1.3 (4.8)
18. Breanna Stewart: 2.0/1.8/1.9 (4.7)
19. Kayla McBride: 2.2/0.1/1.2 (4.6)
20. Alanna Smith: 1.2/1.3/1.2 (4.4)
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 18/08/2025
This strikeout pitch by Alex Vesia against Manny Machado is similar in location to the one in the NLDS last postseason. It’s right in the hands, knotting the batter up with two strikes.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 14/08/2025
The NBA Calendar App has been updated with the 2025-26 regular season schedule. Here are the teams with the toughest schedules. positiveresidual.com/shiny/nba/ #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 14/08/2025
The NBA Calendar app will be updated upon the release of the 2025-26 regular season schedule: positiveresidual.com/shiny/nba/ #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 14/08/2025
Shohei Ohtani vs. Mike Trout — complete pitch sequence. Ohtani struck him out on a full-count sweeper, a similar pitch to the one in the World Baseball Classic, except it was inside.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 21/07/2025
The Dodgers are 6-13 against the NL Central — by far, the worst record by a division leader against a specific division. The only other teams with losing records are: Detroit: 9-12 vs AL Central Philadelphia: 11-13 vs NL Central
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 23/06/2025
2025 NBA Finals, Game 7 Thread: Andrew Nembhard makes his presence felt early in the first quarter. He puts up the first two points of the game on a pull-up at the elbow, then has a great defensive possession against SGA here. #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 18/06/2025
LeBron’s next contract: $400 million, with $380 million deferred through 2050.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 12/06/2025
Incredible defensive play in the clutch by Myles Turner. Amazing. #NBASky
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Anchorage Man @sethpartnow.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
This is the gamble that OKC takes. If they don’t turn you over, you’ll get looks. Indy had only 4 TOs in the second half.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 06/06/2025
The last 22.8 seconds of NBA Finals Game 1 — did we expect anything else? Shai misses the midrange fadeaway, Indiana bypasses the timeout, and Tyrese Haliburton knocks down the clutch jumper, just as he has done throughout the playoffs. Incredible. #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 04/06/2025
Multiple views of Max Muncy’s 9th inning, game-tying home run, including the home-plate perspective. He got all of it.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 01/06/2025
Incredible shooting from the Pacers to clinch their Finals berth: 67% true shooting (their highest in the series) while making over half of their 3s. Two-thirds of their baskets were assisted including 14 of 17 from deep. #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 29/05/2025
Timberwolves-Thunder Game 5: Minnesota fails to break double digits in the first quarter. They had just 9 points on 24 possessions. #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 28/05/2025
Tyrese Haliburton's exceptional Game 4: 32 points on 26 attempts and 29% usage, including 5/12 from deep. All of his 15 assists led to shots in the paint or 3s. He also had 12 boards, 4 steals, and 0 turnovers. Haliburton lived up to his top-5 offensive mark (dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual). #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 28/05/2025
Knicks-Pacers Game 4: At the half, Indiana has the edge in shooting efficiency and turnovers, while New York has the edge in offensive rebounding and free throws. The Pacers' offensive pace is under 12 seconds per possession; the Knicks are close to 15. AST-to-TOV: IND at 3.4, NYK at 1. #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 22/05/2025
The Knicks had a 99% win probability as late as the 58-second mark of regulation, when they went up by 9 points on a Jalen Brunson layup. The rest was history. Incredible comeback by the Pacers. #NBASky www.espn.com/nba/game/_/g...
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 21/05/2025
Thread: Great end-of-game defense by the Atlanta Dream to escape with the win in Indiana. The Fever went with a variation of “Winner.” The Dream defended the cross screen and the weakside superbly, including a clutch block by Nia Coffey. #WNBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 21/05/2025
Free throws proved to be the Fever's undoing against the Dream. Indiana converted just 16/26, including an 0/4 night for Natasha Howard, who had her opportunities down the stretch, and Aliyah Boston's lone miss in crunchtime. Another note: Atlanta had a sizable edge in 3-point frequency. #WNBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 15/05/2025
Shohei Ohtani leadoff homer (left field view). 108 MPH exit velocity, 403 feet
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 02/05/2025
Nuggets-Clippers Game 6: LA's 1-point lead at the half is built on its turnover, offensive rebounding, and free throw edges. Denver's shot efficiency has been fantastic (70% true shooting). The Clippers are 4/22 from deep.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 30/04/2025
Clippers-Nuggets Game 5: At the half, both teams had similar effective field goal percentages, with LA having an edge at the rim and Denver knocking down half of its threes. The difference was at the foul line, which contributed to the Nuggets' edge in true shooting.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 30/04/2025
A complete meltdown for the Bucks — the type that is unsurprising for a team coached by Doc Rivers. #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 27/04/2025
Throughout the series thus far, the Clippers have been burned on baseline cuts from the left side with Nicola Jokic on the right. Figures that they would lose at the buzzer in this fashion. #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 25/04/2025
Dominant Game 3 win by the Clippers, who outperformed the Nuggets on all Four Factors. Three-point shooting was significant: Denver was 7/26 while LA was 18/39. Also, Denver had more attempts at the rim but converted just half of them. #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 22/04/2025
Incredible performance by Kawhi, whose 39 points came on just 21 true shot attempts (93% true shooting). He was 4/7 from deep and missed only one shot from 2-point range. He had 5 assists against just 1 turnover. He also had a block and 2 steals, including the one that sealed the win. #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 12/02/2025
Great insights from Miguel Rojas on Mookie Betts’s preparation for shortstop this season. Betts’s previous throwing challenges have been well-chronicled, but Rojas focuses on the importance of the arm slot, which the Dodgers star is beginning to find. (Via SportsNet LA)
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 10/02/2025
Excellent analysis by @instreetclothes.bsky.social on Anthony Davis’s adductor strain. #NBASky instreetclothes.com/2025/02/10/u...
instreetclothes.com
Understanding Anthony Davis' Adductor Strain - In Street Clothes
Anthony Davis’ Dallas debut started off in spectacular fashion as the newly acquired All-Star scored 26 points to go with 16 rebounds, seven assists, and three blocks. He emphatically declared to the ...
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 23/01/2025
Superb Jack Harris story on the Dodgers’ recruitment of Rōki Sasaki. Yes, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto had significant influence, but altogether, “Sasaki heard from about three-fourths of the roster.” This exemplifies the depth of LA’s stellar organizational alignment.
latimes.com
‘They all wanted him here.’ How Shohei Ohtani and other Dodgers recruited Roki Sasaki
Throughout Roki Sasaki’s highly anticipated posting process and free agency, the Dodgers knew the main pillars they wanted their courtship to be built upon.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 19/01/2025
Money absolutely matters, but it’s only one part. Ultimately, players need a reason to take the contract you’re offering, since they’re receiving other competitive offers. That’s where the Dodgers’ world-class franchise comes in. It’s why they can prevail even when outbid. Players want to be here.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 19/01/2025
The Dodgers signed 17-year-old Joseph Deng, a right-handed pitcher with a 95 MPH fastball, as the first player ever signed from South Sudan. Historic milestone.
baseballamerica.com
Dodgers Land Joseph Deng, First Player Ever Signed From South Sudan
Joseph Deng already has a big fastball for his age, reaching 95 mph at 6-foot-7, 185 pounds.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 18/01/2025
The Dodgers have signed Roki Sasaki for $6.5 million; are eligible to earn a PPI draft pick if he excels; have already completed deals with two other pitchers from Panama and Venezuela; and are still poised to have an international class of about 15 players. Elite work from the front office.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 09/01/2025
Notably, both Evan Mobley (7) and Jarrett Allen (6) tied their season highs in assists tonight against the Thunder. They were a combined 15 / 18 in the restricted area, leading the way for the Cavs, who converted 70% in that zone overall. #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 05/01/2025
Celtics' shot charts by quarter against the Thunder today. Effective field goal percentages: Q1: 54% Q2: 61% Q3: 25% Q4: 22% Additional statistics from @keerthikau.bsky.social (via @michaelgrangenba.bsky.social) below. #NBASky
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Alex Regla @alexregla.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Here's what the Lakers' schedule looks like this month via @positiveresidual.com: 16 games: tied for the most 9 home games (2 road games are in CA) SOS: 4th easiest Miles traveled: 7th fewest Key notes: 9 games come against the Blazers, Spurs, Wizards Hornets, Nets and Luka-less Mavs. Big month.
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Eric Stephen @ericstephen.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
Today is the 89th birthday of Sandy Koufax, who has been a living Hall of Famer for going on 53 years, longer than anyone in baseball history
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Chris Herring @herringnba.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Looks like ESPN lifted the paywall on our KAT feature from earlier, for anyone interested www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
espn.com
The Knicks unlocked KAT just in time for his Minnesota reunion
The Knicks visit Minnesota on Thursday with perhaps the best-ever version of Karl-Anthony Towns.
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Justin Russo @flybyknite.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
LA Clippers are 15-12 and will be no worse than .500 on Christmas. They’ve done it without Kawhi Leonard while playing the 9th-toughest schedule and tied for the most back-to-backs, according to @positiveresidual.com. They’re 5th in defensive rating. Been a fascinating first 27 games.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 13/12/2024
Outstanding breakdown of the Cavs’ unique offensive approach this season. @jaredweissnba.bsky.social does a fantastic job of tracing Kenny Atkinson’s philosophy in Cleveland as an outgrowth of the Rick Adelman coaching tree.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 09/12/2024
Incredible back-to-back performances by Nikola Jokic, scoring a total of 104 points on 77 true shot attempts on over 40% usage. He was 12/18 at the rim and 6/11 from 3. He also had 30 rebounds and 16 assists, of which 12 were in the paint and 4 behind the arc. #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 07/12/2024
As @hpbasketball.bsky.social describes it, Nikola Jokic is having "the best production start in NBA history going back to at least 1976." Jokic is at 64% true shooting on 29% shot usage. His 47% assist rate ties a career high, and his 14% turnover rate is a notch below his career average. #NBASky
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 09/12/2024
From Day 1 of India’s second Test against Australia, an outstanding reverse scoop by Nitish Kumar Reddy.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 09/12/2024
Excellent stats from @ericstephen.bsky.social on Blake Treinen’s impact. Treinen’s entering his age-37 season, so it’s reasonable to expect some decline. But he’s coming off a year in which his strikeout and swinging strike rates remained at 30% and 12%. The stuff is still elite and worth the deal.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 09/12/2024
Juan Soto’s deal is 15 years, $765 million, with no deferrals and escalators that can bring it to $800 million. The net present value of Shohei Ohtani’s deal is less than $450 million. Both are generational talents. In context, you can see the immense flexibility that Shohei’s contract affords LA.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 09/12/2024
This past season, Michael Conforto had his highest hard-hit rate since 2017, surpassing the 40% mark. His barrel rate also rose to 12%. Per Savant, Oracle has the worst home run park factor for lefties, while Dodger Stadium has the 2nd best. LA's banking on Conforto's slugging to translate.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 07/12/2024
As @hpbasketball.bsky.social describes it, Nikola Jokic is having "the best production start in NBA history going back to at least 1976." Jokic is at 64% true shooting on 29% shot usage. His 47% assist rate ties a career high, and his 14% turnover rate is a notch below his career average. #NBASky
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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Today's the day the Golden State Valkyries get their first players. I'll be breaking down all their picks after the expansion draft airs on ESPN at 6:30 p.m. Eastern/3:30 Pacific.
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Positive Residual @positiveresidual.com · 04/12/2024
“Los Angeles now owes deferred payments of $1,006,500,000 to seven players from 2028-46.” Incredible stats on the Dodgers, from Ronald Blum, here:
apnews.com
Dodgers' deferred payment obligations top $1 billion to 7 players with Snell and Edman contracts
Contracts for Blake Snell and Tommy Edman increased the Los Angeles Dodgers’ obligations for deferred payments to more than $1 billion owed to seven players from 2028-46.
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Rob Mahoney @robmahoney.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
In honor of the website redesign, we picked out our favorite pieces and takes and projects in Ringer history. I wrote about my friend Jon, and an essay of his I'll never forget. You should read it here: www.theringer.com/2022/03/03/h...
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