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Paul Meiners

@pmeiners.bsky.social

846 followers 648 following 67 posts

Postdoctoral Researcher @ The Norwegian University of Science and Technology; International Organizations, the EU & Political Psychology pmeiners.github.io

Posts Replies Media

Paul Meiners @pmeiners.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

(8/9) Again, we find no evidence for strong backlash against overturning the lead candidate system. Even when fully informed and after adding another procedural reform, respondents do not react strongly.

Treatment effects for both main outcomes. No large differences can be found

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Paul Meiners @pmeiners.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

(5/9) Looking at survey data collected right before and right after, we find no evidence of a strong backlash. There are three possible explanations: 1. Europeans were not sufficiently informed. 2. The process is not important to Europeans. 3. Europeans were never attached to the candidates.

A: Marginal treatment effects on satisfaction with the process of the EC president selection, 95% confidence intervals. B: Marginal treatment effects on satisfaction with the way democracy works in the EU, 95% confidence intervals. We find no meaningful effects.

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Paul Meiners @pmeiners.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

(4/9) We argue that this came as a surprise to European voters. The sudden nomination of von der Leyen is our "unexpected event" that allows us to test how attached citizens are to the process. If citizens cared a lot, we would expect to see a negative reaction.

We examined Google search interest and Wikipedia page views for von der Leyen around the time of the 2019 European elections. There was a clear spike in attention when she was nominated.

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Paul Meiners @pmeiners.bsky.social · 29/03/2026

(3/4) In a survey experiment, we tried a few framing alternatives, but they did not significantly affect the overall results.

Average treatment effects and 95% confidence intervals from a 2x2 factorial experiment. Only the high cost treatment has a (small) effect on support for trade sanctions against China.

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Paul Meiners @pmeiners.bsky.social · 29/03/2026

(2/4) Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and China, Europeans may not perceive themselves as being on one "side" or the other. Even those who want to increase trade with the US do not necessarily support restrictions on trade with China.

Bar chart showing support for trade restrictions against China against support for trade with China and support for trade with the US.

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Paul Meiners @pmeiners.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

This could be an inspiration: arxiv.org/abs/2505.035...

Partially directed SWIG assumed to generate data for a cannonical 2x2 DID.

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Paul Meiners @pmeiners.bsky.social · 10/06/2024

I’m starting to prefer base R graphics to ggplot. Something must be terribly wrong. #rstats

A bar chart showing survey answers to a question about satisfaction with the state of the economy.

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Paul Meiners @pmeiners.bsky.social · 20/10/2023

Dear polisky polcom communities: Marius Dotzauer and I are organizing a panel for the DVPW conference 2024 in Göttingen. We are interested in understanding communication on international trade and power competitions! Until the end of the month you can submit for panel nr. 37 through meine.dvpw.de

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Paul Meiners @pmeiners.bsky.social · 06/10/2023

To anyone creating surveys, I can highly recommend checking out the Prolific Reddit community. You’re probably going to learn a thing or two about questionnaire design.

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