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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

@michaelcaley.bsky.social How come the joint (42+39+4=85) chance of qualification for Senegal is only 85% when they are certain to go through to the R32?

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

Sweden now up to 99% probability of playing group I's winner in New York 30 June, so it didn't take too long to have that pretty much settled for Sweden at least (although I'm sure they would've swapped that for one of the other two opponents third in their group could get (Germany, Switzerland)):

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Now up to 75 goals after 24 games, the first group stage round at the #WorldCup. We're still seeing a marked (26%) overperformance of Expected Goals, which isn't primarily driven by good shooting (xG On Target is 59.7, xG 59.5), but seemingly more by poor goalkeeping (via Opta Analyst).

Race chart with goals scored after number of games at every World Cup with 2026 leading most others after 24 games.

Goals scored and Expected Goals per game for the last two World Cups, the last Euros and the last season of the EFL Championship. Overperformance of Expected Goals so far at the 2026 World Cup.

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

62 #WorldCup goals in 20 matches for an average of 3.1. No World Cup, after 20 played, since 1958 have been higher. They've been scored from just 49.3 xG, though, 2.47 per game, which is actually lower than the 2022 World Cup's 2.71 xG. 2022 ended with 2.69 goals per game. Goal glut about to end?

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

First half vs. second half touch maps via Whoscored.com, he can play anywhere he wants :-D

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

He somehow managed to take Covid time to a new low and make it even more dour and depressing - and always reminds me of this story from Ben Foster (with my Wednesday related scribblings at the time to accompany it):

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Proportion of points won away across the top division has increased, but seems quite 'bouncy' in later years compared to most of the years before, but the trend is definitely upwards: 43.3% of points won away in the last ten years compared to 39.7% in 2005-15 and virtually identical 39.4% 1992-02:

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

If we look at the opposite ends of those two rankings we see a lot of teams of old, who won most of their points at home, which is also true of 'cold nights/days in Stoke' apparently as well as Grimsby, Luton and Oldham (although over fewer seasons than Stoke):

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

In proportion of points won in seasons across teams with more than 10 seasons in the top flight it seems Selhurst Park forces teams to win points away from home? The 'Big Six' - bolded - tend to win a high share of points away from home too. Spurs lower than all but Man City in that group, though:

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

It would actually also be the highest proportion across *all* teams since 1888 after Ipswich had set the record last season. ( @jair1970.com, @optaanalyst.optajoe.com )

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Here it is in full with my scribblings:

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

Using a saved version of the FiveThirtyEight SPI database of matches 2017-2023 and each team in a match's Match Importance would indicate the EFL's has matches more tightly bunched and the EPL mroe games with more riding on them - and also slightly more than rest of Big 5 (percentiles):

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Germany still some ways off that ;-P But noticeable spending was already, in 2023, fast approaching the post war height of 1990. (1953-2023 via milex.sipri.org/sipri; 1939 estimated via www.nber.org/system/files..., RM~USD in 1939 of 2½:1 and inflation adjustment 1939-2023 of 2092%)

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

That's a good spot; @jburnmurdoch.ft.com, do you have the actual numbers of the data points in your chart?

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

As per Forschungsgruppe Wahlen's exit poll 4.25m non voters in 2021 voted for BSW, AfD, Linke: www.forschungsgruppe.de/Wahlen/Grafi... The exact same number of voters those three (fringe) parties attracted in total from the 'old parties' (SPD, CDU, FDP, Grüne) that make up 3/4 of Bundestag:

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

Did better than me when we went sledging: Cramped up front of both thighs on first go with youngest, then cracked the sledge on the second go 😁

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 26/12/2024

#swfc made history today: We have trailed by three goals or more at half time 21 times since 2000. Not once, before today, have we ever managed to avoid defeat. Truly a mad, historic day (another one in a long line with this damn club of ours that will be the death of us all far too soon 😂)

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 26/12/2024

Boxing Day is the day of the year #swfc have played by far the most league games in our history (99). Our record is very average, with about as many days with a better record as ones with a worse one. Among dates with at least 10 matches on three of the top five are in January.

Table showing Sheffield Wednesday's league record on Boxing Day (26 December)

Ranking showing the dates of the year in which Sheffield Wednesday have the best record.

Table showing all the most recent matches that Sheffield Wednesday have played on Boxing Day (26 December)

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

#swfc update: We now have more wins away from home after conceding first this season (10 of 23 games) than *any* team had *all* of last season (23 matches). Since 2019 only Boro (22-23), all season, have had more wins away (5) after conceding first than we have now (4). (source: soccerstats.com)

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

We see the same 'Pep-ification' development in the EFL Championship too: Attempted long passes declining season on season. And that in a division often, in years gone by, considered an exotic rustic outpost of modern football; no more. (cc @ntt20.com)

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

#swfc 's record on weekdays and months. Delicious irony that Sheffield Wednesday have the worst record when playing on the weekday we're named after 😂 When we look at months December not exactly a festive season for us, but March and April are our two best months in the second tier:

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

We've had quite a varied fixture list (re 1st image), when you look at where the teams we've played are in the table now: We've played 5 of the top 6 and all of the bottom 6. (source: www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?lea...) We've also done better than expected according to bookies odds (re 2nd image)

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

Today's #swfc winner underlines role of active game management: Chalobah (free kick taker own half), Windass, Paterson (assist), Lowe (scorer) all involved in the winning goal (Valery+Bannan too). That's four of our five subs today. (via @optaanalyst.optajoe.com, theanalyst.com/eu/2023/07/o...)

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

To put #swfc 's three away wins after conceding first in the first 9 away matches this season into context: Those three away wins is MORE than in the entirety of the EIGHT seasons we spent in the Championship (184 away games) since 2013 🤯 (cc @ntt20.com)

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

For those tempted by the cliché 'first goal will be massive', it's worth saying we're, in relative terms, very very good at making a mockery of that away from home: We've won twice when conceding first in away games (source: soccerstats.com)

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

When #swfc have the ball in a more established manner (not likely to be that often this afternoon) I expect us to look like below. Places a lot of onus on movement to find the space between and behind; Valentin, up against Harness who is not a natural defender, an obvious place to do so?

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

#swfc vs. #dcfc #swfc going for the counter (like the end of Tuesday). Warne's Derby is probably more like a classic 3-5-2 with two lines of three. Obvious mismatch: - Derby's 11 set piece goals (from 6.8 xG) - Our 10 set piece goals conceded (from 7.7 xG) Not likely one for purists, this!

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

* 'More footballers should go abroad. English football is so repetitive.' * 'After we lost 4-0 in an under-15s game, the coach said, “You’re getting to the age where you won’t enjoy football.” That stayed with me.' * NHS doesn't cover knee scans+surgery?! * Football making people clinically ill

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 12/08/2024

Yesterday's 4-0 was #swfc 's biggest on opening day since 1932 (6-1 Blackburn (A)). And the biggest opening day win at home since the very first game at Hillsborough (Sep 2 1899, Chesterfield 5-1). No opening game at home in our 132 years of league history has been won by more than yesterday:

Table showing Sheffield Wednesday's record in the first league game of the season since 1892. First of two images, 1892-1964.

Table showing Sheffield Wednesday's record in the first league game of the season since 1892. Second of two images, 1965-2024.

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 10/08/2024

I think Ipswich's Ed Sheeran third kit wants to join the competition too. Looks like a running shirt you get given at a work thing:

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Peter Adolfsen Løhmann @ploehmann.bsky.social · 20/10/2023

#swfc Please have a read - and, if you like, subscribe - over on Substack where I've written a profile of new Wednesday assistant, Henrik Pedersen: open.substack.com/pub/ploehman... And, if I may, please consider upgrading to a paid subscription to support my writing about #swfc 🙂

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