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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 2h

Finally, Hegseth gave what might be the worst speech in the history of the Department of Defense. Considering his earlier speeches, that is saying something.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 2h

Midweek update just out (half free). Trump seems to have lost his political touch at exactly the worst time (for him). His political handling of the Iran war is the worst of his career. Also, more winning as the US hastily pulls its bombers out of the UK. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/midweek-up...

phillipspobrien.substack.com

Midweek Update #30: Trump Has Lost His Political Touch

The US Pulls Back Its Bombers: More Winning, Obviously; Hegseth’s Frightening Speech

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 14h

Yeah, it’s exactly what he said, but in this case the White House knows it was a colossal screw up, so is lying its ass off.

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Timothy Snyder @timothysnyder.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Yes, the White House sometimes serves as a branch Kremlin press office, which would be humiliating for anyone who had the slightest hint of patriotism or for that matter personal dignity.

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bjkeefe @bjkeefe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Bonus! At the top of this newsletter is a link to BookBub, which will allow you to buy this ebook by Phillips for only $2.99. Show your support for affordability! It makes Donnie cry! ;) Some details in comments below. #booksky

Cover of the book "The Strategists" by Phillips Payson O’Brien

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

This proves only two things. The Ukrainian campaign against Russian refineries is causing serious damage. Putin has asked Trump to help him out and the US president obliged.

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Colliu @colliu.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Key point: The news is not Putin trying to subvert “the West”: Brexit, AfD, Le Pen, Orban, everything remotely right wing he supported. The news is that the U.S. have turned. There is no “West” anymore. There is a fragile island of liberal democracies in Europe encircled by autocracies.

While I saw some real weaknesses in Biden's policy towards Ukraine (and still do), he remained absolutely committed to the Atlantic alliance.

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Arie Sonneveld @ariesonneveld.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The rumours and official statements about Russian (hybrid) attacks on NATO countries are not very plausible, but they are not meaningless either: it means Putin knows the USA under Trump will not fulfill its obligations (when article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is invoked).

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Latest piece. The discussion of a possible Russian escalation against European NATO often misses the main point that it indicates. It is not about Europe, it is about the USA. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-key-po...

phillipspobrien.substack.com

The Key Point Being Overlooked

The Russian escalation talk proves one key thing

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Ari B Friedman @abfriedman.com · 04/10/2026

If you're not following Phillips P O'Brien you should. His background as a preeminent historian of strategy and economics of WWII, his moral clarity, and his realism have made him right about at startling number of things since the start of the most recent invasion of Ukraine.

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Caw Yar Bluff @j-leslie3k.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Russians have seen from earlier US and European response that they can commit extreme war crimes and nothing will change. From a strategic point of view not only do war crimes make sense the Russians are practically being encouraged to commit them. This is the war we have created in the modern world

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Chris Rivers @chrisrivers50.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

“War logistics now seem dominated by robots. Ukrainians are delivering about 80% of their supplies by unmanned vehicles—and evacuating 90% of their wounded. It is remarkable how many casualties in past wars happened because of such logistical duties—now that is much less of an issue”

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Silvia S. @silviaschreiber.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The Ukrainians' resolve to continue living and never surrender seems to grow stronger with every passing winter, as debilitating and deadly as they are. I wonder what facilities Ukraine will target once all refineries are hit. Viva Vivaldi 🇺🇦 A huge thanks to Phillips OBrien.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It’s notable that while a whole chorus of Trump backers are saying he is winning the war with Iran, he is admitting time and again that he just wants out.

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annneff.bsky.social @annneff.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

🛑 Russian war crimes ⬇️

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Peter Steidinger @psteidinger.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

"Russia’s Strategy In Two Words: 'War Crimes'" 👇 #Russland #Kriegsverbrechen #Putin

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Also, more and more reports are confirming what should have been admitted for years. The Trump administration has business deals ready to go with Putin, once they can bully the Ukrainians into surrendering more of their land and people. This is the real Trump/Kushner win-win.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Free weekend update is out. Russia has a strategy for this winter--massive war crimes to make Ukraine unlivable. We need to speak the truth on that. One reason they need to do this is that they are struggling in other parts of the war--see Vivaldi. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-up...

phillipspobrien.substack.com

Weekend Update #205: Russia’s Strategy In Two Words: “War Crimes”

Operation Vivaldi, Even More Robots; The Trump-Putin Quid Pro Quo

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Rosemary Thomas @rozzthomas.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Excellent from @phillipspobrien.bsky.social US cakeism at large. Divide And Rule: The US Strategy Towards Europe phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/divide-and...

phillipspobrien.substack.com

Divide And Rule: The US Strategy Towards Europe

And Why It Could Work

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Hey Canada, looks like he wants to emigrate. To you or Switzerland…

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Dan Kaszeta FRHistS @dankaszeta.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

At least 21 members of my extended family were arrested and sent from Lithuania to camps or exile colonies in this 1951 act of repression by the Soviet occupiers.

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Rev Peter W Nimmo @peternimmo.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The UK, France and the Baltics should just turn anyway

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Matt "Winter is here" @mattrobb.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Exactly this

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walkingwounded-again @walkingwounded.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

5 eyes to 4 eyes-

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Latest piece out. There was some confusion about why the UK, France and the Baltics were not invited by the US to its NATO meeting. Its actually brutally simple and part of a US strategy of divide and rule towards European security. And it might work. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/divide-and...

phillipspobrien.substack.com

Divide And Rule: The US Strategy Towards Europe

And Why It Could Work

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

If the Baltic states, the UK and France are not invited to discuss the state of NATO with the USA, then the other European NATO states should refuse to attend as well. European security needs to be seen as a whole, only Putin (and Trump) wants to divide it up. www.politico.com/news/2026/09...

politico.com

Pentagon excludes key allies from NATO meeting

Some of Europe’s biggest defense spenders — and U.S. allies — were not invited to a Pentagon-led meeting to discuss the alliance.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Trump goes for his perfect trifecta in this one; a barefaced lie, a large dollop of racism, and a big dose of insanity--all in one short quote.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Actually the biggest lesson from the Schmitt debacle is that Republicans have so internalized and learned to justify Trump’s corruption and disdain for ethics, they assume everyone is corrupt and stupid. They cannot imagine an honest public servant.

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brendanamartin.bsky.social @brendanamartin.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

“(A distance blockade) does not correct the basic flaw in the plan, and that is the US is being forced militarily away from the region (it is completing the withdrawal from Iraq now too) and Iran and its proxies are going to stay there.”

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brendanamartin.bsky.social @brendanamartin.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

“…They do not want the USA to somehow collapse or fail completely, they want it to weaken itself but keep spending. As this person said—they want the US to be happy, fat, and weak—but still consuming.”

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The most notable thing of the last so hours and the Schmitt-Hawkeye screw up of epic proportions, is how Trumpites are primed to pump out any narrative handed to them without thought or reflection. It’s Putinesque.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

they also like what he is doing to the USA. They want Trump to continue doing exactly what he is doing. Taiwan should be nervous.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Midweek update is out, first part free. The US distance blockade of Iran might be seen as a classic case of the US winning a battle but losing a war. Also, the Xi-Trump summit revealed that not only can the Chinese humiliate Trump… phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/midweek-up...

phillipspobrien.substack.com

Midweek Update #29: The American Distance Blockade: Establishing The Best Possible Terms For US Withdrawal

The Xi-Trump Summit, Keeping The US Fat, Weak And Consuming; Taiwan Should Be Nervous

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Well it’s been approximately two weeks since Trump signed the Lindsey Graham tariff bill, which all those Trump supporters were saying was going to allow him to hammer Russia. Any sign of the new 100% tariffs on China and India—the largest purchasers of Russian oil?

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Arie Sonneveld @ariesonneveld.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The admirable reticense of the Ukrainians in the choice of targets is almost superhuman. That is partly because they have to make the most of their resources. But I suppose it's also a cornerstone of their strength.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Russia has one enormous strategic advantage of which it is taking advantage. It can daily attack civilian targets--hospitals, universities, markets--knowing that while Ukraine can do the same, the Ukrainians are too humane to do so.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

From the Russian perspective, the fate of Putin is obviously central.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Latest piece out. People have asked me to discuss how this war might end. Ultimately it will be because both the Russian and Ukrainian political leaderships want it to end (or at least want a ceasefire). phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/how-might-...

phillipspobrien.substack.com

How Might The War End?

Leadership Choices and Possibilities

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The pay for a US Secretary of Defense is $246000 a year. They don’t even bother to hide the corruption these days

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Silvia S. @silviaschreiber.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The best part of reading this update is there was no mention of Trump for the first two-thirds. Sure would be nice if the American tech billionaires would donate financially to help Ukraine keep their robots and drones manufactured. America has wasted away its good name.

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Rev Peter W Nimmo @peternimmo.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

"Now a human life counts for nothing"

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Finally, the Trump rehabilitation of Putin campaign hit a new milestone. Sometimes Trump's heart is so full of love for the Russian dictator, he cannot control himself.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Hi all, free weekend update is out. I start with the Army of Robots concept, which the Ukrainians are using as part of Vivaldi. They want machines to fight, not men. Also, Russia is having one significant strategic success (abetted by the USA). phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-up...

phillipspobrien.substack.com

Weekend Update #204: An Army Of Robots

Russia’s Most Effective Campaign; The Trump Rehabilitation Campaign Continues

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Just as a reminder Trump apologists, in the last 9 months Trump has: Threatened to invade Greenland Seized the leader Venezuela Launched a war against Iran without Congressional approval. Any state in the world needs to worry about him. Except Russia of course. Putin is safe.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

The inability of Trump supporters to acknowledge the immense damage he is doing to the USA’s position in the world is the real scandal.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

I see Trump apologists getting apoplectic at this, which is pure childishness. The President of the USA openly and repeatedly threatened Canadian sovereignty and belittled Canadian independence. It would have been dereliction of duty if Carney did not consider this.

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