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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 28/09/2026

As South Africa heads into a summer that will be shaped by the El Niño soil moisture is at record highs, and have been the entire year. This creates an important early impact buffer. We are watching this metric very closely as this event unfolds here. Data: online.flippingbook.com/view/3012222...

Figure 2.1: Average soil moisture levels in percentage water in top metre of soil for South Africa

Source: SMAP Data from US National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Absa Research, 2026

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 26/09/2026

This weeks quick snapshot of El Niño impacts surfacing across the globe 🇦🇺 Australia 🇧🇷 Brazil 🇺🇸 United States 🇮🇩 Indonesia 🇵🇪 Peru futureclimateiq.com/el-nino-glob...

Sea surface temperature anomaly • 24 Sep 2026

Data: ERA5 • Reference period: 1991-2020 • Credit: C3S/ECMWF

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 25/09/2026

And so it begins. avisos.inmet.gov.br/55817

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 25/09/2026

Just a reminder from Zeke during yesterday’s Berkeley Earth media event:

Global surface temperature lags the tropical Pacific by about 2 to 5 months.

With the event expected to peak around
December 2026, the bulk of its warming shows up in 2027.

That makes 2027 a strong candidate for a new annual record.

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 24/09/2026

While we are now certain that Sep 2026, will not be the hottest September ever recorded - that was Sep 2023 at 1.75ºC above pre-industrial (ERA5) - it will be the second hottest at ~1.61)C But things are about to get interesting in Oct-Nov-Dec. Graphic source: dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#global

Recent years against era envelopes (5–95th percentile per era). Dashed: EC46 46-day forecast. Shaded column: the current month.

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 22/09/2026

What is happening in and around Antarctica should be such a wake-up call! The Earth is progressively losing its ability to reflect heat which the oceans keep absorbing. Payback time is looming large on the horison. Where are the emissions emergency brakes?! Data: ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/ext...

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent [million km2] (PRILIMINARY)

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 22/09/2026

Meanwhile the writing is on the wall www.climatecentral.org/climate-serv...

U.S. 2026 Billion-Dollar Weather & Climate Disasters

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 22/09/2026

A rude awakening on the horizon in the US! “While a solid majority of U.S. adults believe the effects of global warming have already begun, less than half, 45%, believe those effects will pose a threat to them or their way of life during their lifetime.” news.gallup.com/poll/708050/...

American’s beliefs that global warming will threaten their way of life.

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 19/09/2026

From the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis Source: reliefweb.int/attachments/...

HIGHLIGHTS
• The floods have claimed 1,399 lives; 5,179 people remain missing and 13,742 have been rescued (NDRRMA, 15 September, 19:00).
• Assistance has reached 46,829 people in the 17 affected municipalities. This includes 28,925
• Authorities report that initial relief needs in Nuwakot are being met. In Rasuwa, many
heavy rain is disrupting.
• With 7,570 buildings damaged, 2,155 people remain in 30 displacement centres, while others have moved on to Kathmandu and elsewhere.
• The national Cash Working Group agreed on NPR 15,000 per household every 15 days, for up to three months, as the reference value for multipurpose cash. It also called for stronger coordination to avoid overlap.

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 19/09/2026

This is remarkable, during the Exxon Energy outlook call, when asked about Exxon’s outlook here, this was Joshi’s take: The world is "nowhere close" to the 2C target set by the UN's climate panel and, looking at IPCC scenarios, today's trajectory would lift temperatures by 2.5C to 3C by 2050.

Global energy-related emissions
CO2 Billion metric tons

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 18/09/2026

Spot your country in this list of the world’s top 50 methane pollution sites?

Top 50 methane sources globally (April 2026)

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 17/09/2026

In case there was any doubt: latest from @wwattribution.bsky.social "Rapid Warming in the Himalaya Exacerbates Geohazard Cascades Beyond Adaptation Limits" www.worldweatherattribution.org/rapid-warmin...

Devastation in northern Nepal from the August 26 disaster. © UNICEF/UN0914644/Skanda Gautam

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 15/09/2026

In our part of the world, the local provincial government has a campaign underway to get communities as prepared as possible for projected El Niño impacts that will emerge our mid-summer and into 2027. Connected communities make for more resilient communities!

Community Preparedness

Join community volunteer and neighbourhood support networks.

Stay informed through official weather and disaster management warnings.

Participate in community awareness campaigns and local preparedness initiatives.

Share verified information and discourage misinformation.

Support vulnerable households during heatwaves, water shortages and fire incidents.

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 15/09/2026

Fascinating Will let you know how this plays out

A vast frontal boundary will stretch across the Southern Hemisphere tomorrow, from Antarctica through Cape Town all the way to Rio de Janeiro.

The entire system will span an impressive 10,000 km, beautifully illustrating just how interconnected our weather is.

It will bring heavy rainfall to both major cities. Cape Town and southern Africa will also see powerful wind gusts and high waves

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 14/09/2026

It looks like in Sweden they are going to wait until the AMOC collapses before shifting their priorities - of course then it will be too late. (Thanks @chadbourn.bsky.social for surfacing)

Top issues for Swedish voters
Share of voters saying each issue had very great importance for their choice of party, Swedish general election, September 2026

Climate is last on the list at 34%

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 14/09/2026

As climate chaos wrecks havoc in your part of the world NEVER forget who is most responsible for the loss and damage. And to add insult to injury the US EPA is expected to formally rescind carbon pollution standards for fossil fuel-fired power plants today.

Historical cumulative fossil CO2 emissions since 1850

Global Annual Fossil CO2 Emissions per capita, 2000-25

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 11/09/2026

That said, here are comments from Hansen et al yesterday (10 September) (Source: www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailin...)

Fig. 1 is an update of the horse race between 2026 and 2024. In August, 2026 gained about one length (0.1°C ×1 month) and now trails 2024 by about 5 and a half lengths.[4] Given the lag of global temperature behind the tropics, we know that the surge of 2026 will pick up in September and 2026 annual temperature will readily exceed that of 2024 – we are sorry to say

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 11/09/2026

For the first time since 7 August daily temperatures have dipped below their record levels in ERA5. 9 September 2023: 16.47ºC 9 September 2026: 16.40ºC Data: pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

Global surface air temperature
Daily average ● Data: ERA5

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 11/09/2026

The Amazon is in the impact zone.

EL NIÑO AND RAINFALL

El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are known to shift rainfall patterns in many different parts of the world.

The regions and seasons shown on the map below indicate typical but not guaranteed impacts of El Niño.

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 10/09/2026

ICYMI from JMA: “In August 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was above normal with a deviation of +3.4°C. The value exceeded the previous August record of +3.0°C observed in 1997, the highest August value since 1949.” Full update here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/prod...

Five-month running mean of the SST deviation for NINO.3 predicted by JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system (JMA/MRI-CPS4).
Red dots indicate observed values, and boxes indicate predictions. Each box denotes the range where the value will be included with the probability of 70%.

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 10/09/2026

“The average sea surface temperature (SST) across the extra-polar ocean (60°S-60°N) was 21.07°C in August 2026, the highest value recorded for the month. This exceeded the previous August record of 20.98°C, set in 2023.”

Monthly sea surface temperature for 60°S-60°N

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 10/09/2026

August 2026 has shattered records. Also: “August 2026 was 1.65°C above the estimated 1850-1900 pre-industrial average for the month, marking the first month above 1.5°C since November 2025.” Update here: climate.copernicus.e...

August 2026 was the warmest month ever recorded globally

Absolute monthly mean of global surface air temperature

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 09/09/2026

Just the regular reminder of what we face as sea levels continue to rise.

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 08/09/2026

As we enter our El Niño-charged summer, there is one tiny ray of light, the dams in our region filled to the max. Every stored drop lengthens the runway if rainfall drops below normal which is expected.

Garden Route District Dam Level Statistics
(1-7 September 2026)

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 04/09/2026

Visuals from the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis as the planet passes 1.5°C of heating Footage from: China Algeria Chile We are NOT ready for where we are headed.

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 03/09/2026

This is the way! www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/gen...

Bangkok Post

1,520 electric buses set for rollout

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 03/09/2026

I say this all the time. Ignore all the blah blah blah We are FIRMLY on a trajectory to cross 2°C which we need to urgently prepare for How do we know? Well since 2024 we had to reduce emissions by 5.5% EVERY YEAR until 2030 to stay below 2°C Meanwhile 2025👇🏻 Data: www.ametsoc.org/ams/publicat...

State of the Climate in 2025: All 3 dominant greenhouse gases hit new record highs

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 01/09/2026

Today the South African Weather Service issued its first statement on the strengthening El Niño. ⚠️ Extreme heatwaves and below-normal rainfall are what to expect this summer in the region. Media statement: www.weathersa.co.za/api/wp/uploa...

Figure 1: September-October-November 2026 (SON; left), October-November-December 2026 (OND; right), November-
December-January 2026/27 (NDJ; bottom) seasonal precipitation prediction. Maps indicate the highest probability of the
above-normal and below-normal categories.

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 31/08/2026

From the new Rapid Analysis Report (Mohan B. Chand et al yae.org.np/wp-content/u...) The destruction is terrifying I think we can say with some confidence that this event took the area below a tipping point from which full recovery is not possible leading to permanent loss. Adaptation has limits!

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 29/08/2026

IPCC in 2019 “There is 𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙛𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 that in the context of mountain flood and landslide hazards, exposure, & vulnerability growing in the coming century, significant risk reduction and adaptation strategies will be required to avoid increased impacts.” [italics mine] www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapte...

2019
SPECIAL REPORT
THE OCEAN AND CRYOSPHERE IN A CHANGING
CLIMATE

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 28/08/2026

Pictured the trajectory glaciers are on as we continue to heat. The 2023 IPCC warning that “risks are highest where species and people exist…in close association with ice or seasonal rivers” is becoming more and more urgent. The shocking events of this week show exactly what these risks look like.

Regional cumulative mass change of reference glaciers
Relative to 1992.

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 28/08/2026

Reminder: "If countries stay on the same path they are on now, the Earth could warm between 2.5°C and 4.6°C degrees within this century. If nations make good on all their climate-related pledges, the planet could warm between 2.1°C and 2.9°C." 𝙏𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙚 𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙗𝙚 𝙘𝙖𝙡𝙖𝙢𝙞𝙩𝙤𝙪𝙨!

Peak warming over the twenty-first century (°C) relative to pre-industrial levels

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 28/08/2026

In our part of the world the provincial government has kicked off an El Niño summer preparedness campaign to keep people safe. Resilience planning is non-negotiable. There is no need to be caught off-guard.

What Can Communities Do?
COMMUNITY ACTIONS FOR SUMMER READINESS

Small actions today. Safer communities tomorrow.

EXTREME HEAT

WATER SECURITY

WILDFIRE PREVENTION

COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 26/08/2026

Everyone who registers gets the badge.

Screen grab showing W's "verified human" badge.

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 26/08/2026

We are on a highway to hell because we refuse to stop burning fossil fuels. As we cross 1.5°C of heating climate chaos is spreading globally. One of the most at risk places are places near seasonal rivers and ice (IPCC 2023) #ClimateCrisis

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 26/08/2026

In South Africa the Western Cape Government are taking preparedness steps in the face of the very strong El Niño currently continuing to strengthen. This is important. While no two El Niño’s are the same following the 2015/16 event, Cape Town came very close to a water Day Zero.

SUMMER
READINESS PLANNING
Preparing the Western Cape for ENSO and Fire Season 2026

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 26/08/2026

If we do not slam the brakes on producing electricity with coal & gas, and burning oil to move around temperatures will continue to rise and climate chaos will spread. Since Aug 7 every day has been a new record above preindustrial. Aug will now become the hottest Aug ever and 2026 the hottest year

Pictured are the two largest sources of emissions globally:

1. Electricity production (with coal & gas)
2. Transportation

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 25/08/2026

The South African Weather Service posted this update on their Facebook page. Given the risks from this event the use of laugh emojis seems pretty jarring. So I ask SAWS are you ok? peterdutoit.com/saws...

Screen grab of a South African Weather Service Facebook update.

"What have you heard about El Niño? 50degC 🤣🤣?

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 24/08/2026

Global temperature anomalies have been in record territory since Aug 7 With a week in August remaining, we can say with some confidence, that August 2026, will end at about 1.61ºC above preindustrial making it the hottest August ever in the ERA5 dataset. The steady march to 2ºC continues unabated.

Global surface air temperature Daily average ● Data: ERA5

Showing temperature anomalies from Aug 7 to 22 in record territory

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 22/08/2026

This week after laying out a regional resilience plan for farmers, municipal officials, conservationists and business leaders, in the face of this very strong El Niño, I made these remarks about developing an early warning system for yourself. Applicable everywhere. #EarlyWarningsForAll

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 20/08/2026

"a massive generational L awaits" for sure. Just not in the way they think. "Big Tech’s data centre boom poised to drive up carbon emissions - 60 largest planned facilities could emit equivalent of 27 coal plants or 24mn cars per year." www.ft.com/content/8158...

@hailey.at
its been said many times but it is absolutely insane to watch the left shoot themselves in the foot by hopping on this anti-Al train. a massive generational L awaits.

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 19/08/2026

Why is this prep necessary? 👇🏻

Temperature and precipitation forecast for Africa DJF

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 19/08/2026

Yesterday I gave a presentation at the Gourikwa Resilient Landscapes conference. Here is what I shared about El Niño preparedness in the Garden Route District of South Africa

FARMERS
- Review irrigation and water budgets
- Monitor seasonal outlooks monthly
- Prepare contingency plans for heat and water stress

MUNICIPALITIES
- Review drought and emergency response plans
- Increase monitoring of water resources
- Communicate early with stakeholders

CONSERVATION
- Prioritise invasive alien clearing
- Monitor ecosystem and fire conditions
- Protect wetlands and catchments

BUSINESSES
- Review water dependency and business continuity
- Assess supply chain vulnerabilities
- Stay informed through trusted climate updates

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 19/08/2026

The electricity transition progress in the EU.

Production of electricity by source, 2025

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Peter du Toit @peterdutoit.com · 17/08/2026

As you read this harrowing story “Coping with 54C heat: Delhi slum diaries detail living in extreme temperatures” (www.theguardian.com/global-devel... Look at this map and understand there are many places just like Delhi and that heat related health risks are to set to rise as we continue to heat

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