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Colin Murphy

@persuasivescience.bsky.social
3K followers 193 following 517 posts

Co-Lead LCFS and fuel policy research at UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies. Fuel wonkery, climate policy, sustainable transportation, science comms. Thoughts are my own.

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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Excellent blog by James Sallee of @ucenergyinstitute.bsky.social. about Trump's mind-boggling decision to buy out offshore wind leases. He looks at the numbers and concludes that Trump "just spent $3.9 billion of taxpayer dollars spent to shoot a corpse" energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/08/10/w...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Who Killed Offshore Wind?
A closer look at $3.9 billion in lease buyouts suggests they are bad policy but probably irrelevant to deployment Climate headlines often nudge me toward despair. Heat waves, wildfires, and melting…
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Question for the biofuel supply chain experts: How much does it cost to ship biomass-based diesel from producers in the U.S. to California? I've seen studies where authors assume 15-30 cents per gallon, but would really like to check that against real data.
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
We're looking forward to a fantastic day of discussion on how to address indirect land use change in biofuel policies next week. Space is still available! its.ucdavis.edu/events/revis...
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
People wonder why I, and many other academics, are reluctant to embrace AI in our work. This is why. We lack tools to effectively instill ethics or high standards for certainty into LLMs and agents. www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Scientists invented a fake disease. AI told people it was real
Bixonimania doesn’t exist except in a clutch of obviously bogus academic papers. So why did AI chatbots warn people about this fictional illness?
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
For any ILUC researchers, enthusiasts, or folks for whom those letters have become the bane of your existence: I cordially invite you to a research conference ITS-Davis is co-hosting with Prof. Aaron Smith of UC Berkeley, May 28-29 at UC Berkeley. its.ucdavis.edu/events/revis...
its.ucdavis.edu
Revisiting Indirect Land Use Change in Biofuel Policies
Register NowEarly bird registration fees:
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
I'd like to announce an exciting new postdoc position we just opened up to work on new approaches to indirect land use change assessment and risk mitigation. Please share through your networks! its.ucdavis.edu/about-us/car...
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Lovely new blog by @auffhammer.bsky.social, who clearly enjoyed a full helping of snark this Thanksgiving! energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/12/01/a... I 100% agree, I have a Ph.D. in this stuff and I can't understand half of my bill (except the total I owe, they're great at making that clear)
bsky.app
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
Interested in the GREET model for transportation LCA? Have you found the GREET model to be very confusing and tough to work with? We can help with that! ITS-Davis will host a 2-day R&D GREET model training workshop model in Sacramento this November, I'll be your instructor! conta.cc/4lfRBoP
conta.cc
GREET R&D Model Training Workshop - Presented by the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies
Email from Register Now!       GREET R&D Model Training Workshop November 4-5, 2025 UC Center Sacramento, 1115 11th Street, Sacramento, CA   The UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies will host
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RL Miller @rlmiller.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
good morning, short thread on the raids in Camarillo, Ventura County, California. Friends of mine were tear gassed and fired upon with "less lethal" bullets for showing up with a bullhorn. They carted away busloads of farmworkers. Families torn apart. Children sobbing. This is Trump's America.
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Jonathan Koomey @jgkoomey.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
I just donated! RL Miller is the real deal. She shows up when things are tough.
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
True. The way to establish the water level a X year flood will hit is to watch that body of water over many 100's of years, or longer. You can't really do that while the climate is actively and significantly changing. We can model approximations, but our models are also in uncharted territory.
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
I have a new blog up at the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies: No, Your Gasoline Prices Will Not Rise by 65 cents per gallon in July. I'll give you three guesses to figure out what it's about. its.ucdavis.edu/blog-post/no...
its.ucdavis.edu
No, Your Gas Prices Will Not Rise by 65 Cents per Gallon in July - ITS
California’s gasoline prices have been a topic of intense discussion in recent months, with some prominent voices repeatedly asserting they will jump 65 cents per gallon in July, due to changes in Cal...
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The Climate Center @theclimatecenter.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
🌎 On #EarthDay, join us for our fourth annual #CAClimateSummit. Register: theclimatecenter.org/summit2025 With policy experts, elected officials, business leaders, scientists, and activists, we'll explore how to draw down carbon and build resilience for a climate-safe future.
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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 11/02/2025
Lots of people saying, "just wait until the consequences hit!" I would remind you that last time Trump was president, he botched a pandemic & a million Americans died. As a result, he was reelected & Americans turned on their own public health agencies.
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Credit where it's due: This is a sensible decision we should have made long ago: www.nytimes.com/2025/02/09/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Orders Treasury to Halt Minting New Pennies to Cut Waste
Can he do that? It’s not clear. But President Trump is right when he says that pennies “literally cost us more than 2 cents.”
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
I wonder if we should be thinking of Musk's seizing of Treasury as an historic cyber-security breach that endangers the entire US and global financial system. Every government and financial institution in the world should be demanding that Treasury arrest the hackers, restore integrity of US govt.
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Tina Smith @smith.senate.gov · 03/02/2025
Elon Musk illegally seized the purse strings of the United States. An unelected billionaire may have access to everyone’s social security numbers.   We need answers now. This power grab cannot stand.
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
And once again, Democrats focus on winning past elections, not the upcoming ones.
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Totally agree with this. Killing subsidies will slow the transition, not stop it. The fundamental advantages of battery-electric powertrains for light and medium duty applications are too great; some will cheaper than their ICE equivalents in the US even without subsidies within 20 years.
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Brian Schatz @schatz.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
Trump just literally eliminated an Executive Order to reduce the price of prescription drugs. They are ripping you off, personally. They never gave a shit about the price of anything.
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Jamison Foser @jamisonfoser.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Well that will surely teach Trump a valuable lesson and reassure all that we are a nation of laws, not of kings.
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Kyle Meng @kylemeng.com · 10/01/2025
I have so much to say about this...and will. But for now: the problem is not just with economics (and whether we can do better), but rather the declining influence of objective analysis in our society. 1/ #EconSky
nytimes.com
Economists Are in the Wilderness. Can They Find a Way Back to Influence?
Economists have long helped to shape policy on issues like taxes and health care. But flawed forecasts and arcane language have cost them credibility.
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
This wouldn't be a perfect solution, from the analytical perspective, but clearly a big step forward from the current approach.
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Dave Itzkoff @ditzkoff.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
My father would womanize, he would start land wars with Denmark. He would make outrageous claims like claiming ownership of Greenland. Sometimes he would refer to the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America.
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
-51 gCO2e/MJ seems like a pretty reasonable number for livestock digesters in the short term, e.g. the 10 year period the credits are authorized for (caveat: I haven't seen the math Treasury and DOE did to arrive at this number, but I have been reading a lot of livestock digester LCAs recently).
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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 03/01/2025
I really wish we saw more emphasis on installing 120V outlets everywhere (at rental properties, public garages, workplace parking lots etc). If you were confident you could slow charge wherever you park, it would be fine for maybe 80-90% of days, with DC rapid chargers filling in the rest of time.
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Hank Green @hankgreen.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
We gotta reject “Well, RFK jr. is right about some things” and accept “if we don’t confront the real problems with our systems, it becomes much easier for con artists like this guy to manipulate people.”
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Happy New Year, Bluesky! I wanted to start the year with an example of the best science communication I've seen in... a while. Apologies for the fact that it's on a paywalled site (though @economist.com is one of my preferred sources for high-quality journalism) www.economist.com/interactive/...
economist.com
The chart of everything
This chart shows every object that has ever existed, and raises a question: is the universe a black hole?
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
The tide seems to be slowly turning against hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and now one of the standard-bearers seems to be going through even more turmoil. Luckily, batteries keep getting lighter, cheaper, and quicker to charge so there are other ZEV options in the heavy-duty space.
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 14/12/2024
This is absolutely critical to our progress towards GHG reduction. It's strange that it took this long, and frustrating that several other critical rules, notably Advanced Clean Fleets, are still pending (and seem unlikely to be granted, unfortunately) but this is a big one on that front.
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Marshall Shepherd @drshepherd2013.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
This is so spot on. As a climate scientist and public intellectual, I see or experience these often
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Senthorun S. Raj @senthorun.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
A lot of academics (myself included) are activists. Studying something horrible (you know, like climate change or gender inequality) and wanting to make it less horrible doesn’t mean your work is compromised — it just means you give a shit. Empathy is a key scholarly skill. IMHO.
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Colin Cunliff @colin-cunliff.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2024 is out! - includes updated cost and performance data for vehicle and fuel technologies to help stakeholders plan transportation future Register for the Dec 3 webinar. www.energy.gov/eere/analysi... #energysky
energy.gov
The 2024 Transportation Annual Technology Baseline
The third edition of the Transportation Annual Technology Baseline includes updated cost and performance data for vehicle and fuel technologies to help stakeholders plan for a future of sustainable tr...
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Adam Parkhomenko @adamparkhomenko.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Donald Trump is about to do to the economy what he did to the Capitol.
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Good overview of SAF from @mariagallucci.bsky.social in Canary Media. My only quibble is that I probably would have spent more time unpacking the uncertainty around carbon intensity assessment and point out that the DOE estimates (from GREET) may be a bit low www.canarymedia.com/articles/air...
canarymedia.com
Sustainable aviation fuel is taking off. What is it, exactly?
Aviation experts say SAF is the “only viable option” for curbing emissions from flying in the near term. Here’s what you need to know about these three…
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Many modeling studies depend on direct air capture (DAC) in their 1.5°C stabilization scenarios, but they rely on overly optimistic assumptions regarding the cost and scaling of DAC systems. This leads to highly misleading results that impact the ability to reach climate stabilization goals.
news.mit.edu
Reality check on technologies to remove carbon dioxide from the air
An MIT Energy Initiative study finds many climate-stabilization plans are based on questionable assumptions about the future cost and deployment of “direct air capture” and therefore may not bring abo...
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
*Sigh* I guess we're not done with high-volume, low-empirics advocacy around the LCFS impact on gas prices. Here I was hoping to be able to move on to other issues. I'm seeing news stories notably, including this one claiming massive LCFS-driven gas price increases www.newsweek.com/california-2...
newsweek.com
Californians need $1,000 more to pay 2025 gas prices
Gas prices are projected to increase in 2025 after regulators passed new rules about fuel standards.
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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 07/11/2024
Some positive #climate news for a change: Brazilian President Lula da Silva's efforts to curb deforestation is working: deforestation in the Amazon is down 30% since last year & 50% vs under Bolsonaro. Silva is expanding enforcement to stop net deforestation by 2030. www.reuters.com/world/americ...
reuters.com
Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon rainforest falls to lowest since 2015
Deforestation fell 30.6% in the 12 months through July compared to the same period a year prior.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 06/11/2024
I think this is right. Also, if anyone is looking for someone to blame, it should be focused on the people who looked exactly at what Trump was selling and said "yes."
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Zahra Hirji @zhirji.bsky.social · 06/11/2024
Washington voters rejected a ballot initiative seeking to repeal the state’s cap-and-trade program. As of Wed morning, with more than 60% of expected votes counted, about 62% of voters opposed ballot initiative I-2117 while 38% supported it. Story @bloomberg.com: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Washington State Votes to Keep Carbon Tax That Was Up for Repeal
Companies including BP, Amazon and Microsoft joined with environmental groups to defeat a proposal to end the state’s cap-and-trade program.
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 06/11/2024
Any remaining pretense that America is a just and compassionate force for good just crumbled. I weep for the millions doomed to suffer after this result. My heart hurts.
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 01/11/2024
I would love a functional Green party in the U.S., even as a permanent minority, I'd probably vote for them. But our Green party doesn't engage in the work of governance. They run no local/state candidates, join no coalitions. They just pop up every presidential cycle to claim a bit of the spotlight
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Senator Ron Wyden @wyden.senate.gov · 01/11/2024
Trans rights are human rights
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ChatsVoid @chatsvoid.bsky.social · 30/10/2024
What’s scary to one can be comforting to another. #comic #webcomic
SOMEDAY THE EARTH WILL BE GONE?
YES. FAR, FAR FROM NOW. BUT YES.
THE SUN TOO?
YES.
EVEN THE SUN IS TEMPORARY. DOES THIS SCARE YOU?
HONESTLY, NO. FIND IT ODDLY COMFORTING THAT NOTHING LASTS.
IT MAKES ME AND MY PROBLEMS FEEL NICE AND SMALL
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News Eye @newseye.bsky.social · 14/10/2024
Yesterday, Trump raised the prospect of deploying the military against his political opponents. Extraordinary by any historical measure. Here are the front pages of 8 of the leading newspapers in the US the morning after. Nothing. Zero. Zip. Democracy dies in silence.
Front page of the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal with no mention of Trump’s threats to use the military against his political opponents.Front page of LA Times and Boston Globe with no mention of Trump’s threats to use the military against his political opponents.Front page of the San Francisco Chronicle and USA Today with no mention of Trump’s threats to use the military against his political opponents.Front page of the Philadelphia Inquirer and NY Times with no mention of Trump’s threats to use the military against his political opponents.
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Colin Murphy @persuasivescience.bsky.social · 08/10/2024
Saw this thread on the old platform (apologies for linking there, but I haven't found him here and want to offer credit where it's due) and have some thoughts. Thread: x.com/OilandGibbs/...
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 24/09/2024
Yes, we do exist—and our numbers are growing. It’s not easy, because it means we get it from both sides: but we persist, because it matters so much! e.g., research finds framing climate action as a moral issue is a key societal tipping point. That's a natural role for people of faith. Read more:
thewalrus.ca
Meet the Evangelicals Who Actually Care about the Environment | The Walrus
“If we really take the Bible seriously, we would be at the front of the line demanding climate action”
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Kate Starbird @katestarbird.bsky.social · 24/09/2024
Our team wrote up a rapid analysis of 2 rumors spreading that frame errors w/ absentee ballots as intentional voter suppression. We explain how those rumors are misleading: errors like that are rarely intentional, have remedies, and are unlikely to affect outcomes. uwcip.substack.com/p/d4ae631c-a...
uwcip.substack.com
Election Rumor Research @ Center for an Informed Public
Welcome to the Election Rumor Research Substack by the Center for an Informed Public at the University of Washington, offering rapid research of rumors concerning election processes and procedures in ...
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