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Paul Swinney

@paulswinney.bsky.social
2.7K followers 66 following 246 posts

Chief Economist at The Data City. Formerly of Centre for Cities. Posting mainly about economics.

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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 17h
We aren’t measuring the economy properly. This leaves policymakers flying blind. See my column in this week’s @observeruk.bsky.social
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
‘Reindustrialisation’ Another ill-defined phrase to follow ‘rebalance’, ‘turbocharge’ & ‘level up’ the economy. We do this because the most important part of the economy is invisible in the statistics. This should worry every economist and policymaker.
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Richard Jones @richardaljones.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Good piece. It should be obvious that technological progress is very uneven, and that productivity growth is disproportionately driven by a relatively small number of firms operating in sectors where fast technological progress is taking place, but this is not widely enough appreciated.
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
We don't measure the most important part of the economy in official statistics. Every economist and policymaker should be concerned about this:
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
The main pushback seems to this is that it removes local accountability. I think it strengthens it. Here's why:
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Good luck to Andy Burnham. May he succeed where all of his recent predecessors have failed.
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
England have scored 13 goals at this year's world cup. 12 have come from Bellingham or Kane. That's a lot like the UK's public finances. What state would they be in without London? See more here:
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ESCoE @escoeorg.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Interesting piece by @paulswinney.bsky.social @thedatacity.bsky.social. Hear more from Paul in this special session on navigating industry and regional classifications at ESCoE's recent conference: youtu.be/DW-GPnX_gTY
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
On your second point, I'd contend that quite a few countries have. As a group our secondary cities are the poorest performers of anywhere in the G7. And Japan is the only other country where the rest of the country outperforms them for productivity.
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Many parts of the UK run a fiscal deficit larger than Greece’s at the height of its 2009 sovereign debt crisis. Let that sink in for a second.
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
I'm on this week's More or Less with Tim Harford discussing the Manchester growth miracle. You can listen to it here. Let me know what you think: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...
bbc.co.uk
BBC Radio 4 - More or Less, Examining the numbers behind Andy Burnham’s ‘Manchester Miracle’
Tim Harford examines ‘Manchesterism’, hot cities, whales and CO2, and prime numbers.
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Amy Borrett @amyborrett.ft.com · 30/06/2026
💡Does the UK lose its best ideas to America? New data suggests the bigger challenge is much closer to home: scaling spinouts from outside Oxford and Cambridge. Enjoyed digging into the data with the help of @paulswinney.bsky.social for @alphaville.ft.com Full story here: as.ft.com/r/d60411f3-9...
Treemap of declared investment in spinouts by university showing UK spinouts have an Oxbridge biasStacked bar chart of share of spinouts by ownership and employee numbers showing there has been no Great British sell-off
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Dear political journos. The creation of No10 North is decentralisation of the state, not devolution. The first is the state doing its functions somewhere else in the country. The second is the reallocation of powers away from the centre. They are very definitely different things. Thanks x
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
'Growth in every postcode'. That's what Andy #Burnham will promise today. Here's why this thinking will sink his agenda.
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Economics Observatory @econ-observatory.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
NEW on the Economics Observatory – Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle? By @paulswinney.bsky.social
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Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle? - Economics Observatory
While official data points to a 'productivity miracle' in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using…
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ESCoE @escoeorg.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Producing local economic insights in the UK faces a fundamental challenge: reconciling official statistical frameworks with the granular realities of business activity. This special session looks at industry and regional classifications. @asvalero.bsky.social @paulswinney.bsky.social
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
This is the geography of VC-backed businesses in the UK, from @thedatacity.bsky.social. Every dot is the operations of an existing business that has received VC at some point.
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Henry G Overman @henryoverman.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Interesting from @paulswinney.bsky.social. Why trains aren't always the answer.
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Economics Observatory @econ-observatory.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
NEW on the Economics Observatory – Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England? By @paulswinney.bsky.social
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Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England? - Economics Observatory
More often than not, the political answer to the North of England’s economic challenges is more trains. Yet while fresh investment in rail infrastructure may boost prosperity in certain places, it…
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Economics Observatory @econ-observatory.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
JUST PUBLISHED – Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England? By @paulswinney.bsky.social
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Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England? - Economics Observatory
More often than not, the political answer to the North of England’s economic challenges is more trains. Yet while fresh investment in rail infrastructure may boost prosperity in certain places, it…
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
The answer is trains. What’s the question? That’s what so many conversations about the solutions to the North’s economic challenges feel like. That starting point doesn’t help the very people we want to make more prosperous. Here’s why: www.economicsobservatory.com/are-more-tra...
economicsobservatory.com
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Jo Bibby @jobibby.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Another proof point! Super interesting critique of the Manchester growth story from @paulswinney.bsky.social www.economicsobservatory.com/have-the-uks...
economicsobservatory.com
Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle? - Economics Observatory
While official data points to a 'productivity miracle' in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using it,...
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
🧵 The 2025 UK investment league table is out. Some sectors will be celebrating. Some ministers will not. A thread 👇
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
The #GortonandDenton results show the political challenge that the Manchester growth miracle narrative creates. People are told that Greater Manchester is booming. They don't feel it in their pocket, and feel like it is passing them by. They vote for change.
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
This event has just taken on extra significance🍿 #GortonandDenton
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Centre for Cities @centreforcities.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
📅 In conversation with @mayorofgm.bsky.social Joins us to hear from the Mayor on Greater Manchester’s journey so far, lessons for other mayoral strategic authorities, his ambitions for Greater Manchester and the English devolution agenda more broadly👇 www.centreforcities.org/event/manche...
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
‘Why are you dumping on Greater hashtag#Manchester?’ That’s one of the reactions I got from my recent piece questioning GM’s miracle productivity growth figures. But this type of coverage is exactly the reason why I wrote it.
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The Data City @thedatacity.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Yesterday we joined @OxfordEconomics' Global Economic Outlook Conference in London to explore the forces driving change. Our Chief Economist @paulswinney.bsky.social presented how we're building a real-time view of the UK economy using web data, machine learning & modern sector classifications.
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
My recent work on productivity figures has made today's FT. Full article here: www.ft.com/content/606d...
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The Data City @thedatacity.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
How can think tanks use big data in research? Great to join @smartthinking.bsky.social yesterday. Our Chief Economist @paulswinney.bsky.social spoke on how tools like The Data City help map emerging sectors in real time. Try it yourself: thedatacity.com/free-trial/
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Interesting (via the FT) Mayoral elections are much more about the candidates than parties (see @centreforcities.bsky.social). Houchen’s victory in spite of national Tory support falling off a cliff in the last round of elections shows this. So does he need the Reform brand to stay in power?
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Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
What should we do less of? The question that, in so many different contexts, we all like to duck. All the more so if the answer gets anywhere near private consumption.
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
I've seen a number of organisations and politicians use the data seemingly showing a productivity miracle in large northern city regions, especially Greater Manchester. Something didn't seem quite right. So I take a look in this piece:
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Paul Connell @paulcconnell.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Great work here by @paulswinney.bsky.social - www.economicsobservatory.com/have-the-uks... Building trustworthy real-time economic data infrastructure, is exactly why we built @thedatacity.bsky.social The Data City.
economicsobservatory.com
Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle? - Economics Observatory
While official data points to a 'productivity miracle' in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using it,...
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Henry G Overman @henryoverman.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Great piece by @paulswinney.bsky.social raising serious concerns about the UK's sub-national productivity data and what it can tell us. I share his worry that misleading conclusions about a northern city miracle may already be skewing policy debates www.economicsobservatory.com/have-the-uks...
economicsobservatory.com
Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle? - Economics Observatory
While official data points to a 'productivity miracle' in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using it,...
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
I've seen a number of organisations and politicians use the data seemingly showing a productivity miracle in large northern city regions, especially Greater Manchester. Something didn't seem quite right. So I take a look in this piece:
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Yunze Wang @yz18.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
LOVED THIS by @paulswinney.bsky.social ! Worth noting that the GVA anomalies probably exist across geographies. This one surfaced because it happened at the right time and in the right place (a fast-growing Manchester), and thus received attention. Important context for local decision makers.
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Megan Streb @meganstreb.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Great piece from @paulswinney.bsky.social showing how places can think through data. Definitely worth a read by #localgov folks -- you too can do a 'sniff test'!
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Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Important challenge by @paulswinney.bsky.social to recent claims about a Manchester productivity miracle. www.economicsobservatory.com/have-the-uks...
economicsobservatory.com
Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle? - Economics Observatory
While official data points to a 'productivity miracle' in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using it,...
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Economics Observatory @econ-observatory.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
JUST PUBLISHED – Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle? By @paulswinney.bsky.social
buff.ly
Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle? - Economics Observatory
While official data points to a 'productivity miracle' in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using…
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Paul Connell @paulcconnell.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
AI in the UK - Data. Great work here form the @thedatacity.bsky.social & @paulswinney.bsky.social thedatacity.com/blog/3-key-f...
thedatacity.com
3 key facts - what the data says about the UK AI sector - The Data City
But how big is the UK AI sector? Who owns the companies? And where in the UK are these companies based? The Data City’s data has the answers.
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Lots of discussion recently on US ownership of UK AI activities. But what does the data say? 🔵US ownership is higher in AI than other 'frontier' sectors - 7% Al v 2% overall. So larger, but still small. 🔵But for large AI firms, US ownership rises to 30%...
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
This is bad for the government's housebuilding targets, right? Not necessarily...
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The Data City @thedatacity.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
First up... The UK’s Industrial Strategy is back. But ambition needs evidence. Our new report, Open Sourcing the Industrial Strategy, delivers the clearest IS-8 mapping yet - real-time data, frontier sectors, future-ready. 👉 thedatacity.com/reports/open...
thedatacity.com
Open Sourcing the Industrial Strategy - Reports - The Data City
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Centre for Cities @centreforcities.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
After 16 years @paulswinney.bsky.social reflects on his career at Centre for Cities including some of his favourite research, cities and lessons learnt along the way 🎙️ Listen now 🎧 👇 buff.ly/PZMXf1B
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Mike Spicer @mikespicer-pd.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
If you haven't already, check out our latest #LEDConfidential episode with @paulswinney.bsky.social from @centreforcities.bsky.social on the UK's industrial strategy and what it means for local economic development in the country open.spotify.com/episode/0w9K...
open.spotify.com
Place before sectors? Rethinking UK industrial strategy with Paul Swinney
LED Confidential · Episode
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Maurice Lange @mauricelange.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
NEW @centreforcities.bsky.social REPORT OUT TODAY! In Planorama, Luka and I argue that if we want English planning to perform more like its international peers – Germany, France and Japan - it needs to BE more like them. 🧵 on what that means...
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Centre for Cities @centreforcities.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
BLOG | Leaky buckets: how much spending do places lose to their neighbours? 🛍️ Big city centres pick the pockets of smaller neighbours for high street spend, while not doing enough to boost incomes in these neighbours. Read the blog from @paulswinney.bsky.social👇
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Leaky buckets: how much spending do places lose to their neighbours? - Centre for Cities
Big city centres pick the pockets of their smaller city neighbours for high street spend, while not doing enough to boost incomes in these neighbours.
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Rob Johnson @rjson.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Most discussion on 'how to save the high street' doesn't take a serious approach to what actually determines its performance in city centres. Our new report (I think) provides the most comprehensive account yet. And it starts with the fact that: the high street is not in decline everywhere. 🧵👇
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Paul Swinney @paulswinney.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
I'm sure you've been told many times over that business rates are the cause of the woes of struggling high streets. Here's why reforming them won't solve these woes.
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