Sign in

Paul Blustein

@paulblustein.bsky.social
753 followers 108 following 376 posts

Ex-newspaper guy (WashPost, WSJ) turned book author Latest book, "King Dollar," on USD dominance (Yale Univ. Press, pub. date 3/18/25) Sr. Associate @CSIS.org Resident of Japan, perpetrator of many gaijin faux pas www.paulblustein.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
P.P.S. Nor is dollar supremacy attributable to federal insurance of bank deposits, which @bhgreeley.bsky.social, author of “The Almighty Dollar,” often cites as a major factor. (Hope this doesn’t sound catty. Robust debate among us authors should be welcome—it’s important to get this stuff right!)
100
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
P.S. One implication of the report is that dollar primacy doesn’t depend on Washington using its geopolitical muscle to keep foreigners in the dollar system —the factor deemed crucial by Prof. Ho-fung Hung of Johns Hopkins in his forthcoming book “Greenback Empire.”
110
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
By all means, check out this superb report. But if you’d like to read more in what I will immodestly claim is a more accessible account, have I got a book for you! fin
111
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
“However," the report continues, "the pre-established position of the dollar, as well as the extensive infrastructure of FX swaps and Treasury futures that facilitates investment and risk management in dollars, create network effects that make it difficult to pull away.” 12/13
111
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The authors also acknowledge that the system’s “Hotel California” quality “does not mean that the dollar is locked into global dominance forever…any number of factors could erode the dollar’s pre-eminent position.” as detailed in the report's second chapter. 11/13
111
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The report sternly warns that because of major shifts in the dollar system after the 2008 crisis, risks of financial fragility may well be rising as ever-increasing US government deficits and Treasury issuance could overwhelm market plumbing. 10/13
111
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
It also does so with an amusing departure from its otherwise dense prose, describing the dollar system as “a kind of ‘Hotel California’ for the world economy: everyone can check out at the margin, but no one can really leave.” 9/13
111
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
These points echo arguments that I’ve made in my book, in op-eds and in speaking engagements, but the report makes the case with formidable academic rigor. 8/13
131
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
And because “no rival safe asset comes close to the depth and liquidity of the [US] Treasury market,” the dollar’s role “makes large-scale substitution [to another currency] difficult and costly.” 7/13
121
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
“Standard metrics [of dollar primacy], such as [central bank] reserve shares or trade invoicing, understate dollar entrenchment,” the report states. “Deeper evidence of entrenchment” can be found in the derivatives markets—foreign exchange swaps, futures, repo, etc. 6/13
131
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
..—the dollar is used far more than any other currency by globe-girdling firms and institutions that move billions across borders every day, including banks, pension funds, insurers, asset managers, money market funds, and hedge funds, among others. 5/13
121
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
As the authors put it: “The dollar is not just a currency; it is the operating system of global finance.” The report shows, with gobs of data, that in a wide array of int’l transactions—investing, lending, bond issuance, exporting, importing, and myriad derivative instruments…
121
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
And if you won't take my word for it, read the Geneva Report, in particular its third chapter, which ought to confound even the most apocalyptic dollar doomsayer. 3/13
111
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
To wit: My book KING DOLLAR (Yale U. Press, 2025) makes the case that the dollar will remain globally dominant for the foreseeable future. Awful though Trump administration policies are, they aren’t sufficiently catastrophic to dethrone the dollar—of that I’m confident. 2/13
131
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Confirmation of priors is always satisfying, and my priors—on US dollar dominance—just got resoundingly confirmed in the latest Geneva Report on the World Economy, one of the economics profession’s premier publications. 🧵 1/13 cepr.org/publications...
cepr.org
Geneva 29: Changing Structure and Challenges of the International Financial System: Imbalances, Currencies, and Financial Stability
The 29th Geneva Report on the World Economy assesses four major challenges currently confronting the global economy. First, global imbalances have re-emerged as a central issue, driven by China’s grow...
132
Reposted by Paul Blustein
EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
And this is a @karl-schamotta.bsky.social graph 🫵👀
271
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Exceptionally insightful by @adamtooze.bsky.social -- and that's really saying something! Be sure to read all the way to the punchline: "There is little prospect of any rival, let alone the yuan, replacing the dollar any time soon." adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...
adamtooze.substack.com
Chartbook 475: After the dollar as reserve currency, the (profit) dollar as a “portfolio currency”.
“The dollar is the world’s reserve currency.
091
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
As Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council is quoted as saying in the piece, "The story of moving away from the dollar is one of the oldest stories that exists." Indeed! If you'd like to know more, and see why that story remains misconceived, have I got a book for you!
010
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
….and I say so even though I heartily endorse all the negative sentiments about current US policy cited in the piece.
100
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
“Talk of the dollar’s dwindling power is growing louder,” says this NYT article. Sure is! Doesn’t mean the talkers are right. “No rival currency is poised to topple the dollar imminently.” Nah, too mealy-mouthed. Should be “for the foreseeable future.” www.nytimes.com/2026/09/16/b...
nytimes.com
The World Economy Is Becoming Wary of the U.S.
America’s position of global economic stability is starting to look shakier as the Trump administration piles on debt and doubles down on sanctions.
100
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Glad you posted this. I learn a great deal about Japan from you, but this is truly news I can use, and may help me avoid a ticket.
030
Reposted by Paul Blustein
Peter de Bode @peterdebode.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Such a great read ! @paulblustein.bsky.social
011
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Thanks, that’s my favorite bit too!
131
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Pathetic. Having been occasionally subjected to this sort of treatment during my reporting career by officials pissed off at my coverage, I strongly urge members of the non-US delegations to contact the barred reporters and feed them juicy tidbits of exclusive information.
021
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
It’s bedtime in Japan, where I live, and I’ve got to get up early in the morning to go paddling with my kayak club. (I’m the only gaijin member. But I digress.) So for now, I’ll just say: if you’d like to know more, have I got a book for you!
020
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
For what I humbly submit is a pretty thorough debunking of that version of events, here’s my take: (And yes, this piece, too, favorably cites Eichengreen's work--read to the end!) www.ft.com/content/a65e...
ft.com
Much ado about the 1974 ‘petrodollar’ deal
KSA 🤜 🤛 USA?
100
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
One aspect of Eichengreen’s argument that I think is particularly off base is his account of events in the 1970s involving the supposed US-Saudi deals to maintain USD supremacy.
100
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
But I believe that many years from now, he’ll be cited as a great economist who wrongly prophesied the dollar's demise, just like Charles Kindleberger, whom he cites in his piece.
100
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Strong disagree. I say this with utmost respect. Barry Eichengreen's work is footnoted 20 times in my book KING DOLLAR, and he has influenced all my other books too. 🧵 www.nytimes.com/2026/08/28/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | King Donald Is Dethroning the Dollar
The dollar’s roll as the world’s reserve currency is threatened by the erosion of our institutions under Trump.
110
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Somebody could make a lot of money selling T-shirts with this emblazoned on it.
26310
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
The great @alanbeattie.bsky.social, showing that Trump's Canada tariffs are comparable in idiocy to his hydronymic delusions www.ft.com/content/e5fe...
ft.com
The battle plans in Trump’s tariff wars look more witless each time
Canada was right to resist US intimidation
031
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
"Treasuries have been repriced but not replaced" says Jessica Hoversen (alas, not on this site apparently), with her customary insight and supporting evidence, on her cleverly named Substack, "Hegemoney." www.hegemoney.com/p/safety-first
hegemoney.com
Safety first
Treasuries have been repriced but not replaced
000
Reposted by Paul Blustein
EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
If you don't like Lake America.... You can start saying CUSMA from now on
1104
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Our family's big vacation next yr. will be in Vancouver & environs. We have a reason--the graduation from the Univ. of British Columbia of our younger son (sibling of the guy in the pic, also a UBC grad). But everybody should holiday in Canada, & show support for the sentiment on my wife's shirt!
061
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
…for this op-ed that ran earlier this week, which was rightfully trashed by countless academics on this site (and the other one) as historically inaccurate, economically illiterate, and shockingly unworthy of @nytimesoped.bsky.social. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/22/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | An Ancient Sumerian Solution to Our $40 Trillion Debt
In the ancient world, debt forgiveness was a regular tool to control the economy. Why have we forgotten it?
011
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Fancy that—an excellent, insightful op-ed in the @nytimesoped.bsky.social by a financial journalist who actually understands the subject, @robinwigglesworth.ft.com. Shouldn’t be necessary to frame the comment in such a way, except…
281
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I like your theory about how crypto corroded his brain. Here's an example of the stuff he wrote while covering that for the WSJ. www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
wsj.com
Bitcoin Buyers Flock to Investment Clubs to Learn Rules of the Road
The crush of people flooding into crypto has left a large information void, so investors are turning to places like the Black Bitcoin Billionaires group, which meets on the social-media platform Clubh...
020
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Be as snarky as you like. I'm deeply embarrassed to be in the same profession as this moron.
120
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Gosh, I forgot Moosehead! Wish I could find that at the supaa too!
000
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I go back and forth on whether Canada ought to retaliate. Whatever the right answer is: stay strong, Canada. I live in Japan, and love Japanese beer, but just wish I could buy Molson or Labatt at our local supaa (supermarket).
120
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
It's not shocking that this guy wrote a dumb piece--he also wrote dumb pieces on crypto while at the WSJ. What's shocking is that no editor at the NYT thought to ask, "but if massive amounts of debt is canceled, who will ever lend money?" God help us if Natalie prints it out for you-know-who.
041
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
SCHISM was published in 2019, so it's a bit out of date, but I like to think that chapters 2 & 3 provide a pretty darn authoritative account of the momentous US-China negotiations in 1999. And in our discussion for "Trade Talks," you and Chad had great questions and trenchant observations, as usual!
021
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Hugely appreciate this, @soumayakeynes.ft.com! I'm quite proud of the work I did unearthing the story behind the negotiations leading to China's WTO membership in my book "SCHISM: China, America, and the Fracturing of the Global Trading System."
131
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
We really went at it! Just like the "Jane, you ignorant slut" arguments on SNL's "Point/Counterpoint." OK, just kidding, but it was a meaty discussion. www.mercatus.org/macro-musing...
mercatus.org
121
Reposted by Paul Blustein
EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
OMG!?!? @davidbeckworth.bsky.social X @bhgreeley.bsky.social X @paulblustein.bsky.social X @b-eichengreen.bsky.social ??? This is actually a series I want to do!
1124
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
@edwardluce.bsky.social at his best, and that's really saying something.
020
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
It's been one year, four months and nine days since the publication of KING DOLLAR. Seems like a perfect occasion to recall the book's dedication: "To my grandchildren, whom I will always love unconditionally, even if they grow up to like crypto."
0112
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Now that the Iran war appears to be back (deeply regrettable and stupid, don't get me wrong), can't we have a reprise of claims about the "death of the petrodollar?" Those were such fun to debunk. www.ft.com/content/a65e...
ft.com
Much ado about the 1974 ‘petrodollar’ deal
KSA 🤜 🤛 USA?
021
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
I think he's got it! By George he's got it!
010
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
(Yes, I know my books got listed first because alphabetical order, but still)
221