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Patriots Analytics

@patriotsanalytics.bsky.social
1.3K followers 199 following 112 posts

Facts and stats for fans of Pats

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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Drake Maye had the best game of the year by QBR and PAA (Point Above Average) yesterday...
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
NFL Leaderboards require 1,500 attempts to qualify, which Brock Purdy currently sits 5 short of at 1,495... However DVOA also includes sacks and DPI penalties, and so the new #2 QB in Pass DVOA is one Brock Richard Purdy #Relevant @ftnfantasy.com @aaronschatz.com
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
@colleenwolfe.bsky.social is 2-0 on hail mary picks for the patriots this season🫡 One more?
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Since 1960 there have been 66 AFL Championships or AFC Championship Games Of every QB to start those games, no QB has had fewer pass attempts than Jarrett Stidham who will start on Sunday: It is the fewest since 2004 Ben Roethlisberger. Inexperienced 😬
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
538 used to have a similar idea with Team ELO that was quite instructive:
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
I'm sorry you found us so annoying you had to seek out our posts discussing our QB just to tell us how annoying we are as a fanbase. I hope your day goes better and you have a happy new year!
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
"DVOA-VOA differential" mede o quão fortes foram as defesas Este ano, o valor de Maye é de -5,17%, o que o colocaria apenas em 5.º lugar entre os MVPs anteriores *translated with deepl.com*
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Fortunately we have more stats than just yards and TDs in the modern NFL Preferring Stafford isn't mad, but I would hope you have more analysis than basic counting stats which exclude one of Drake's USPs, namely his huge rushing contribution (400 more yards, and 4 TDs)
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
The final MVP race comparisons... Presented without comment.
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
There's also this... You can't schedule adjust away 53.1 additional EPA of value Especially when you ought to acknowledge better weapons, scheme, and dome benefits for Stafford/Rams.
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
In the playoff the Patriots are 3-1 vs the Chargers 1-0 vs the LA Chargers. Beat LA.
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Well that's Maye done for the day, #2 seed wrapped up MVP favorite Drake Maye has another stellar day, for over 200 EPA on the season, far outpacing the rest of the year, and one of the best 25 seasons on record (1994-2025) Star.
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
Good morning Patriots fans! After going 4-13 last year, a win gives us the 2 seed, and potentially the 1 Our 4th down aggression has gone from bottom in the league with Mayo to top with Vrabel Campbell/Milton are back So for the 11th week a happy "Drake Maye tops the NFL in EPA" to all, lets go!
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
Here's the bottom 20, I'm sure the Packers will be hoping for more from Diggs
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
I've followed similar conversion principles to create CB DYAR! This year it's Jamal Dean who's the top, but finding good company with Lenoir and Mitchell
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
Preach! There's a number of existing MVP seasons who had easier pass schedule's than Maye this year (-4.88%), it's very strange to see the media narratives currently circulating. Either he or Stafford would be valid choices, but people needn't lie to make the case.
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
I struggle to believe they're watching the games... Maye had this exact issue last year when there wasn't statistics to protect, he just is still learning how to navigate the pocket well and what to do to stay on time. Meanwhile he is *the* most aggressive and accurate downfield passer:
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
This isn’t a stretch, I have the numbers to pack up the assertion! Easier seasons include ‘99 Warner, ‘15 Newton, ‘78 Bradshaw, and ‘90 Montana
Easiest schedules for QBs in 2025QB MVP seasons with the easiest schedules faces since 1978:
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
Stafford’s bad game could be affecting other races too… Excited to update when the new DYAR numbers come through!
Statistics traditional/advanced for the 2025 MVP race through Week 17
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
Week 17 MVP race update! Drake Maye leads the majority of measures both traditional and advanced to evaluate QB play. Advanced stats to come tomorrow, but it finishes as a -3.9 EPA day for Stafford… Maye. V. P.
MVP stats comparison thru Week 17
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
NFL MVP Race 2025 *before* MNF: Updates as we have them Drake 🚨 Maye 🚨 MVP
NFL stats basic and advanced comparing MVP, mostly led by Maye over Stafford
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
In case anyone was wondering what the MVP leaders looked like in EPA 👀 Stafford has -8.9 EPA so far during MNF Your 2025 MVP should be Drake Maye
2025 EPA thru Week 17 w/o MNF
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
‪For the 10th week a happy "Drake Maye tops the NFL in EPA" to all Patriots fans... Back in the playoffs, our QB is an MVP candidate, and our Coach is favorite for CotY!
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
The Patriots will retain sole control of the most consecutive Conference Championship Game appearances in NFL history Unmatched.
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
In a division decider game today Drake Maye has been feeling himself in the first half M V P
Half time boxscore
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
For the 9th consecutive week a happy "Drake Maye tops the NFL in EPA" to all Patriots fans... No more bye weeks so no mental adjustments required, Maye is still on top!
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
Bye weeks are statistically the worst week of the season:
No Patriots football today
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
For the 8th consecutive week a happy "Drake Maye tops the NFL in EPA" to all Patriots fans. MVP
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
For the 7th consecutive week a happy "Drake Maye tops the NFL in EPA" to all Patriots fans. LFG
Drake Maye top in NFL for total EPA, 9 clear of Mahomes, 5 clear of Love, 12 clear of JAllen, 3 clear of Dak
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
For the 6th consecutive week a happy "Drake Maye tops the NFL in EPA" to all Patriots fans. We. Have. A. Star.
Drake Maye tops NFL in EPA (source rbsdm.com)
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Top 10 QBs by Total EPA in 2025 through Week 7: Star ⭐
Drake Maye #1
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
In 2024 Jerod Mayo ranked dead last in @ftnfantasy.bsky.social’s coaching aggressiveness index. The teams in the championship game feature the coaches ranked: 2nd McDermott 7th Sirianni 15th Quinn 29th Reid Entering 2023 Vrabel was on the best:
Top 10 of correct 4th down go rates per Sports Info Solutions from 2021-2023

Vrabel ranked 4th.
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
One area for concern for Drake Maye next year, Pressure-to-sack ratio. This is something which is often stable year:year, and as you can see something rookies often struggle with. Hopefully this can improve for Drake with improved OL play, better pocket manipulation, and more quick wins from his WR
Chart of Pressure2Sack ratio:
1. Levis 45.6%
2. Caleb 42.5%
3. Daniels 42.3%
4. Hurts 42.2%
5. Drake 41.0%
6. TLaw 37.5%
7. Flacco 36.7%
8. Baker 36.7%
9. Tua 36.2%
10. Minshew 35.8%
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
The @patriots.bsky.social new Head Coach Mike Vrabel has the highest TD catch rate in the play-by-play era (min: 10 receptions: 1. Mike Vrabel 100% (12 receptions) 2. Mike Bartrum 50% (10 receptions) 3. Joseph Fauria 33% (24 receptions)
Mike Vrabel doing the bird dance after catching a TD vs the Eagles in SB XXXIX
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
Dan Quinn coached with aggression, Todd Bowles did not... Hopefully Vrabel carries this kind of energy into next year...
All the 4th down decisions on the espn decision site, Washington had 5 correct GFI calls out of 6, Bucs had 0 correct GFI calls out of 3.
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
In the wise words of Jerod Mayo…
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Updated the CB Value and Value Above Replacement stats!
CB Implied Value and VAR via CB DVOA stats, Christian Benford strong #1 over all others, Byron Murphy, Pat Surtain II, Devon Witherspoon, Jourdan Leiws, Beanie Bishop Jr., Dee Alford, Jaylon Johnson, Cooper DeJean, and Quinyon Mitchell feature.
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 25/12/2024
Definitely think Steve Grogan will be appearing on here at the top right…
Pats QB Rush DYAR vs Rush Yards for highest rush DYAR season ‘78-‘24
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 22/12/2024
Slightly less first half EPA than the Rams game, but vs a much better Defense, one of the best halves of Drake Maye’s career!
Pats @ Bills 14-7, Drake Maye 8.3 EPA first half
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Using the Week 11 CB drop you gave I made a rough outline for a CB value stat, in the same vein as the WR Route DYAR as CB Value (Over average) and VAR (Value above Replacement) Not sure how predictive it is, but looks fun for a first draft:
Table of CB DVOA with number of routes, while Value and VAR data calculated
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Next worst in a loss is Sam Darnold
ESPN List of worst QBR in 2024:
https://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/qbr/_/view/weekly/week/bestgames/sort/schedAdjQBR/dir/asc
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
This debate famously happened for the Bengals after they drafted Burrow. I think our OL is worse than the Bengals in 2020, but not drastically so. There's also no "sure thing" to draft, but I'm open to anyone at either WR/OL; actually acquiring blue chip talent seems the more pressing isue.
Meme, option A: Sewell blocks for Burrow to throw to "Anybody"
option B: "Anybody" blocks for Burrow, who then gets sacked and can't throw to Chase
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Slightly left of Cam (fewer rush yards), my guess would be more rush DYAR than Drake, lower efficiency, but also a lot more volume. Question mark is purely illustrative, but gives a rough idea 😁
Grogan speculation at x = 539 rush yards, and a high number of rush DYAR.
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Drake Maye of the Patriots is having ~by far~ the greatest rushing season from an efficiency perspective of any Patriots QB since at least 1979 Standout ⭐ Data from @aschatz.bsky.social of @ftnfantasy.bsky.social's DVOA:
Scatter plot of the best Patriots QB rushing seasons by Rush DYAR against Rush Yards, from 1979-2024

Drake Maye sits at the top, with Matt Cassel, and then a host of Tom Brady/Matt Cavanaugh, Steve Grogan, and Cam Newton seasons underneath him.
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Sure! Of course situations aren't 1:1 between Mac and Drake (nor the other QBs) but it does show not to be too confident from a 1 season sample.
Mac Jones Rookie Year cumulative EPA overlaid with '24 rookie QBs
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
How does Drake Maye's performance compare to the other rookies in the 2024 class? His performance has been more of a steady incline, with a lower number of dropbacks owing to Jacoby Brissett starting the year, however he also shows the most steady linear improvement.
Graph showing cumulative EPA of all QBs in 2024, with the rookies highlighted in team colors.

Jayden Daniels has performed highest, but has come down following early season peaks.

Drake Maye has been slowly improving to above zero.

Bo Nix started the worst, but has been recovering through the season and is now higher.

Caleb Williams had a mid season peak, and subsequently dropped off again.
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Stanley White: He finished his career with 2 years in the USFL
PFR table of Stanley White's career:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WhitSt20.htm
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Patriots Analytics @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
The Pro Football HoF semi-finalists have been announced. Here's a chart of career sacks vs career interceptions with one obvious outlier: No Hall of Fame player has more sacks and more picks than Rodney Harrison (pareto efficient). Worthy ⭐.
Chart of Career Sacks vs Career INTs in the NFL.

The blue dots (HoF) have more INTs and more sacks than the non-HoFer with one glaring exception at 30.5 sacks and 34 picks.
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