How the ForecastEx prediction market scores against twenty alternative forecast systems, city-day by city-day at every lead, with probabilistic skill, a city map and a full scorecard.

At meaningful lead times, ForecastEx has 21% to 25% lower forecast errors for daily high temperatures than even the next-best alternative among twenty.

A detailed daily look at some of the most interesting weather and climate prediction markets at ForecastEx and elsewhere.

Prediction markets genuinely improve forecasts, even in a highly scientific and mature field such as weather forecasting.

Interactive Brokers’ ForecastEx platform, which allows investors to buy ‘yes’ or ‘no’ contracts based on stated outcomes for specific indicators, is

Prediction markets can quantify sentiment on the possibility of a major ocean current collapsing due to climate change.

The range of plausible next-day temperature outcomes can translate into millions of dollars in differences in energy expenditure.

A guide for participants and observers of daily temperature forecast markets at ForecastEx.

Prediction markets can tell us whether pledges coming out of the climate negotiations are likely to make a substantive difference.

Distinguishing between science and political opinions masquerading as science

Exploring climate change’s impact on global agriculture and food security.

As Seen on PBS Energy Switch

Floods, fires and storms are flat or down, but risk and damages have increased.

Our experts dig through IPCC data to reveal surprising trends in extreme weather.

It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prediction markets.

YouTube video by SRM360

The southern US, the Caribbean, and Bermuda are keeping their eyes on Hurricane Erin. As the E in Erin suggests, it is the 5th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and is the first hurricane.

A warming climate has made it more challenging to deal with wildfires by extending the number of days they can occur and leading to faster-growing larger fires that can have major impacts on air quali...