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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

It was a pleasure to be on the IBKR Cents of Security podcast today, discussing my favorite framework for thinking about the risks from extreme weather: Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability. www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/podca...

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

How prediction markets can help: www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

ForecastEx Odds of a Major Hurricane Landfall Compared to Weather Models. By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba. www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

The storm didn't begin its northeastward progression as soon as some models anticipated. According to the HWRF model (00Z 10/28 run) Hurricane eye landfall times are: Jamaica: 10/28, 18:00 UTC or 2:00 PM ET Cuba: 10/29, 6:00 UTC or 2:00 AM ET The Bahamas: 10/29, 21:00 UTC or 5:00 PM ET.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

Hurricane Prediction Market Update [10/27/2025] www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 13/10/2025

I was recently on two episodes of the PBS show Energy Switch, hosted by Scott Tinker, alongside @revkin.bsky.social. The topic was extreme weather, disasters, and climate change.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 27/08/2025

There’s a real possibility that Hurricane Erin may still be the only hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season by the end of next week. As it stands, the market probabilities at ForecastEx appear to be overvaluing the odds of high activity. www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 21/08/2025

Do we still expect an active hurricane season? www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 16/08/2025

It is notable that Google DeepMind's ML Model foresaw Erin’s extreme rapid intensification as a real possibility as early as last Tuesday evening, while the traditionally most relied upon physical model, ECMWF-ENS, did not have Erin’s level of rapid intensification within its realm of possibility.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 05/02/2025

We were also discussing this article internally.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

Using our attributions methods (adapted from the study below), we calculate that climate change enhanced wildfire intensity over the LA area by 6% between January 7th-11th. This is assuming a 10% difference in wind speed.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

This is a nice study, largely building on our 2021 work on wind and solar droughts (a main concern for renewable energy systems): Liu et al. (2024): Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

At this moment, I am encouraged to see signs that leadership is, in fact, going in this direction. doi.org/10.1126/scie...

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Statements 1 and 2 are essentially narrow enough to be addressed by components of the scientific method, and the oft-quoted “97% to 99% scientific consensus on global warming” applies to these statements. youtu.be/7Csw2RY5Gy8

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Claims in climate policy are on a spectrum from being quite amenable to the scientific method to being almost completely outside its realm. thebreakthrough.org/journal/clim...

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

This scientization and depoliticization is clear in U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry’s justification of the political positions of the Biden Administration:

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

A result of all this is that trust in science has deteriorated, with about 1/4th of US adults and 1/3rd of self-identified Republicans now reporting that they have little or no confidence that scientists act in the best interest of the public.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

This statement by Bari Weiss refers to the attitudes in elite left-of-center media, but it could just as easily have been said about attitudes in elite scientific and academic institutions.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Another particularly salient example was the letter from health experts in the middle of COVID-19, which abruptly reversed previous messaging and endorsed an exception for social gatherings, so long as it was for the progressive cause of the moment. cbc.ca/radio/asitha...

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Prominent examples of this were the 2017 "The March for Science” and the world’s most prestigious scientific journal, Nature, officially endorsing Joe Biden for president in 2020 as well as Kamala Harris for President in 2024.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

In a 2nd Trump presidency, rather than doubling down on the misguided notion that science is an authority that can fully dictate policy, scientists should strive to delineate between strict scientific facts and their political preferences. t.co/napraOW9iY 🧵

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

As Harry Saunders has shown, growth is not a tenet of capitalism in any formal mathematical sense, and in the real world, we observe that once societies reach a certain level of productivity, their growth rates actually begin to decline. thebreakthrough.org/journal/issu...

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Carbon Intensity of Energy has been decreasing globally. The environment in which this is fostered is summarized in More from Less as having the four elements of 1) capitalism, 2) technological progress, 3) an informed public, and 4) responsive government. andrewmcafee.org/books/more-f...

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

These examples are representative of broader trends observable at the aggregate economic level. In the highest-income, most economically-free countries, we have seen peaks and subsequent decreases in energy consumption not only per unit of GDP, but also on a per-person basis.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Population: As societies become materially better off, fertility rates tend to decline naturally. This phenomenon results from a multitude of factors, but it is the most free economies that tend to have the lowest fertility rates.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Regarding mitigation, I use the terms of the Kaya Identity to argue that productivity in a capitalistic framework actually creates a downward push on at least three of four factors.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 27/02/2024

Underemphasizing the importance of energy for human well-being causes a neglect of the fact that 3 billion people are still in extreme energy poverty and that this economic/energy inequality is the primary reason for different sensitivities to climate.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 27/02/2024

I have documented some of the patterns that I am concerned about in Google Scholar’s top 50 climate change papers from Nature and Science journals.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 27/02/2024

However, it is a widespread misunderstanding that policies like the 1.5°C limit are just “science-based policies.” There is substantial evidence that there is a lot of “policy-based science” being generated as well.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 27/02/2024

Nature and Science have made it clear that they explicitly support policies like the temperature limits associated with the Paris Agreement and particular politicians like Joe Biden.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 27/02/2024

I point out that publishing in high-impact journals like Nature and Science is desirable and that one strategy researchers can take to maximize their chances of publication is to align their research with the high-level messaging espoused by the leadership of the journals.

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PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 27/02/2024

This piece stems from a frustration I feel about not being able to take the high-impact climate science literature at face value.

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