Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 12/02/2026Is the difference that there are two types of empirical paper you can write: 1. 'it would be so cool if x after y' 2. 'could be x or not x after y, I wonder which it is' Latter is probably better for science, and null is publishable; the former don't admit nulls but more common for ? reasons 130
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 21/01/2026media.tenor.coma little girl is asking why not both while standing in a kitchen .ALT: a little girl is asking why not both while standing in a kitchen . 000
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 06/12/2025This is a feature of pretty much any technology that reduces the cost of doing x -> lowers the expertise threshold to participate; for another example see Lime Bikes 010
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 19/11/2025I’d love to see this chart too if you can share 010
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderBen Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 30/10/2025Also a reminder that ‘joined up government’ sometimes means things like the Home Office giving dubious travel data to HMRC, so you just get ‘joined up dysfunction’ 1697
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderHenry Mance @henrymance.ft.com · 27/06/2025Jaw-dropping reporting by Haaretz www.haaretz.com/israel-news/... 8721321200
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 04/06/2025AI is getting to be as smart as a PhD - the kind of PhD who would fabricate all the data for a research paper on the impact of AI. amandaguinzburg.substack.com/p/diabolus-e...amandaguinzburg.substack.comDiabolus Ex MachinaThis Is Not An Essay 140
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderJosh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 30/05/2025As I note here, really zero reason to believe Elon is stepping away from anything. This is all a crisis comms campaign. talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/dont-...talkingpointsmemo.comDon’t Fall For Elon Inc.’s Press CampaignWe’re in the midst of a storm of articles — variously encomiums,... 511376349
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderAndrea Matranga @andreamatranga.bsky.social · 29/05/2025The tragic landslide in Blatten gives me the excuse to tell you the story of how we found out Ice Ages existed. It's a cool story and the most important bit is rather similar to what's happening now. 26951414
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 27/05/2025You should team up with Matt Levine: everything is either a bank or securities fraud (and why not both?) 010
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 27/05/2025One of the central points in Plato’s Republic, isn’t it? 150
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderNoah Rosenblum @narosenblum.bsky.social · 24/05/2025The real problem with the Supreme Court’s expected Fed carve out is not that it lacks a principle but that the real principle isn’t articulated. The reason it will carve out the Fed is functional but it won’t say that. And its jurisprudence doesn’t leave room to ventilate the functional arg.(1/8) 29868176
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderMonica Marks @monicamarks.bsky.social · 22/05/2025A man named Elias Rodriguez just shot dead two Israeli embassy staffers at a Jewish museum in DC, shouting “free Palestine!” An awful, criminal act that puts Israel back in a victim position. I’ve never seen a just cause attract such a high % of counterproductive “allies.” 🧵 2759
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 21/05/2025Sigmund Freud’s ‘psychology’ is still getting parents in hot water 020
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 17/05/2025In this paper my coauthor and I find you can’t rationalise mandatory contributions and tax concessions as an optimal policy *unless* the concessions solve a political problem (in our paper, they’re necessary to get new workers to opt into the system) tinyurl.com/mr8y9ph9 032
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 17/05/2025Why? As OP notes you can’t give the whole of society a tax break. Concessions on retirement contributions just mean higher taxes on something else -> optimal choice depends on the marginal social impact of each of these two taxes 110
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 17/05/2025Correct take. If it’s good to force people to save for retirement, we don’t need to also compensate with tax breaks. This is true even if we’re only trying to force some people to save (eg because they have present bias) 151
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderLydia Polgreen @polgreen.bsky.social · 16/05/2025My god. What an abomination. www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...nbcnews.comTrump administration working on plan to move 1 million Palestinians to LibyaDetails are murky and no final agreement has been reached, but the plan is under serious enough consideration that the administration has discussed it with Libyan leadership. 39648239
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 16/05/2025That’s a remarkable level of hubris if so. The UK’s sluggish productivity growth was the main economic issue before being eclipsed (in the news) by Brexit and Covid 110
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 16/05/2025Which is stunning, given how their campaign promises all hinged on those unplanned policies getting growth going again 230
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 16/05/2025The ISA landscape is so confused. Exhibit 2: one of the main types of ISA is called ‘Stocks and Shares ISA’. Two words for the same security. 000
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 16/05/2025The ISA landscape is so confused. Exhibit 1: you can keep funds in cash within a stocks and shares ISA. Removing the Cash ISA would just preference one type of institution over another (banks). on.ft.com/4mjY2ZI UK ministers consider cutting tax-free cash Isa allowanceon.ft.comUK ministers consider cutting tax-free cash Isa allowanceCity groups think such a move will attract money into equity funds and domestic shares 110
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 14/05/2025yeah on second glance I was wrong - the surpluses of the other countries add up to more than the UK and US deficits, so your OP was the right interpretation; apologies 010
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 14/05/2025The US’s deficit is the bit that’s unexplained by the bars in the graph 100
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 12/05/2025Can confirm from my own experience - we always put my name first, but the doctor & school always call my wife first. From the abstract: "Our findings underscore a process through which agents outside the household contribute to within-household gender inequalities." Indeed. 040
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 12/05/2025New NBER WP by @kbuzard7.bsky.social @laurakgee.bsky.social and @olgastoddard.bsky.social finds mums are 1.4x more likely than dads to get a callback from schools, despite no request for the skew.nber.orgWho You Gonna Call? Gender Inequality in External Demands for Parental InvolvementFounded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an... 153
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderTomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 11/05/2025This Labour government’s apparently policy in office is to somehow improve growth/productivity while attempting to force a larger share of the overall workforce into lower value add employment and undermining profit centres. It’s definitively an unconventional approach! 622862
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 09/05/2025This would *add* an inflationary bias into the optimal policy rule. The fed has no control over tax and spend, but the denominator and numerator act differently when there’s inflation inflation so… 030
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderFinancial Times @financialtimes.com · 07/05/2025Opinion from the FT's Editorial Board: 'The US and European countries that tout Israel as an ally that shares their values have issued barely a word of condemnation. They should be ashamed of their silence, and stop enabling Netanyahu to act with impunity.' www.ft.com/content/f5fd... 040981917
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderJulia Carrie Wong @joolia.bsky.social · 06/05/2025 A world historical crime, taking place in full view, with the perpetrators so convinced of their impunity that they can brag about genocidal intent, and it’s hard not to agree with their calculation that no one will stop them and no one will be held accountabletheguardian.comGaza will be entirely destroyed, Israeli minister saysBezalel Smotrich says Palestinians will ‘leave in great numbers to third countries’, raising fears of ethnic cleansing 2620091275
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 02/05/2025Taking the thumb off the scales…I’ll show myself out 000
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 02/05/2025We need to replace all compensating variation evaluations with numbers of thumbs. Interpretable like CV, but much less likely to be biased in favour of wealthy people’s preferences. 130
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderRandall Munroe @xkcd.com · 25/04/2025PhD Timeline xkcd.com/3081 5865978920441
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderBen Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 20/04/2025How better to celebrate Easter than with a discussion of whether Donald Trump is a Leviathan or Anti-Leviathan? New post from me about whether it makes sense to use theories about dictatorship to understand Trump's kind of chaotic authoritarianism. 1/n benansell.substack.com/p/donald-tru...benansell.substack.comDonald Trump's Anti-LeviathanWhat if we abandoned the social contract for the state of nature? 419562
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 16/04/2025While there's probably a Trump effect, this raw number is confounded by Easter - it's in April this year, but March last year 130
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderJustin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 05/04/2025This is remarkably close to what we had six days ago. The average tariff rate of most European nations was about 1%. 451025231
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderBen Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 05/04/2025New post from me about Trump's tariffs and why Harold Macmillan was right - we Brits are truly Greece to America's Rome - because our Brexit-era compulsion to think everything was 'simple' has a Trumpian heir. A short thread. 1/n benansell.substack.com/p/simplebenansell.substack.comSimpleOr perhaps not 115067
Reposted by Patrick SchneiderChristoph Koettl @ckoettl.bsky.social · 05/04/2025Video obtained by my colleague Farnaz Fassihi shows how the IDF deliberately attacked, over several minutes, a convoy of ambulances and other emergency vehicles in #Gaza. #Israel wrongly claimed that the vehicles drove without emergency signals and headlights. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/w...nytimes.comVideo Shows Aid Workers Killed in Gaza Under Gunfire Barrage, With Ambulance Lights On (Gift Article)The U.N. has said Israel killed the workers. The video appears to contradict Israel’s version of the incident, which described the vehicles as “advancing suspiciously” without headlights or emergency ... 701454877
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 04/04/2025Comparisons like this really aren’t meaningful. Do the same for the 1929 crash ($34bn lost peak to trough) to see why. % down is better. This graph says more about market gains in the intervening period than losses in the last few months 000
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 03/04/2025No. Usually non tariff barrier estimates come from an idea of missing trade in a given direction (based on a model of trade drivers), not the net of both directions 030
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 03/04/2025But it correctly equates isolation with control 230
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 03/04/2025Can’t wait to see who figures out the prompt that leads to a list of countries with Australian Antarctic territories in it 110