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Patrick Schneider

@patricksecon.bsky.social
515 followers 1.1K following 72 posts

Assistant Professor @ Imperial Business School, formerly LSE & Bank of England Macroeconomist interested in distributional effects of macro policy. patrickmschneider.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Is the difference that there are two types of empirical paper you can write: 1. 'it would be so cool if x after y' 2. 'could be x or not x after y, I wonder which it is' Latter is probably better for science, and null is publishable; the former don't admit nulls but more common for ? reasons
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
But that’s not a bug. It’s a feature.
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
media.tenor.com
a little girl is asking why not both while standing in a kitchen .
ALT: a little girl is asking why not both while standing in a kitchen .
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
Sahara desert also
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
This is a feature of pretty much any technology that reduces the cost of doing x -> lowers the expertise threshold to participate; for another example see Lime Bikes
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Such a perfect dinner companion too RIP
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
I’d love to see this chart too if you can share
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Also a reminder that ‘joined up government’ sometimes means things like the Home Office giving dubious travel data to HMRC, so you just get ‘joined up dysfunction’
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Henry Mance @henrymance.ft.com · 27/06/2025
Jaw-dropping reporting by Haaretz www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
AI is getting to be as smart as a PhD - the kind of PhD who would fabricate all the data for a research paper on the impact of AI. amandaguinzburg.substack.com/p/diabolus-e...
amandaguinzburg.substack.com
Diabolus Ex Machina
This Is Not An Essay
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Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
As I note here, really zero reason to believe Elon is stepping away from anything. This is all a crisis comms campaign. talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/dont-...
talkingpointsmemo.com
Don’t Fall For Elon Inc.’s Press Campaign
We’re in the midst of a storm of articles — variously encomiums,...
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Andrea Matranga @andreamatranga.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
The tragic landslide in Blatten gives me the excuse to tell you the story of how we found out Ice Ages existed. It's a cool story and the most important bit is rather similar to what's happening now.
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
You should team up with Matt Levine: everything is either a bank or securities fraud (and why not both?)
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
One of the central points in Plato’s Republic, isn’t it?
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Noah Rosenblum @narosenblum.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
The real problem with the Supreme Court’s expected Fed carve out is not that it lacks a principle but that the real principle isn’t articulated. The reason it will carve out the Fed is functional but it won’t say that. And its jurisprudence doesn’t leave room to ventilate the functional arg.(1/8)
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Monica Marks @monicamarks.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
A man named Elias Rodriguez just shot dead two Israeli embassy staffers at a Jewish museum in DC, shouting “free Palestine!” An awful, criminal act that puts Israel back in a victim position. I’ve never seen a just cause attract such a high % of counterproductive “allies.” 🧵
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Sigmund Freud’s ‘psychology’ is still getting parents in hot water
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
In this paper my coauthor and I find you can’t rationalise mandatory contributions and tax concessions as an optimal policy *unless* the concessions solve a political problem (in our paper, they’re necessary to get new workers to opt into the system) tinyurl.com/mr8y9ph9
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Why? As OP notes you can’t give the whole of society a tax break. Concessions on retirement contributions just mean higher taxes on something else -> optimal choice depends on the marginal social impact of each of these two taxes
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Correct take. If it’s good to force people to save for retirement, we don’t need to also compensate with tax breaks. This is true even if we’re only trying to force some people to save (eg because they have present bias)
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Lydia Polgreen @polgreen.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
My god. What an abomination. www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...
nbcnews.com
Trump administration working on plan to move 1 million Palestinians to Libya
Details are murky and no final agreement has been reached, but the plan is under serious enough consideration that the administration has discussed it with Libyan leadership.
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
That’s a remarkable level of hubris if so. The UK’s sluggish productivity growth was the main economic issue before being eclipsed (in the news) by Brexit and Covid
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
Which is stunning, given how their campaign promises all hinged on those unplanned policies getting growth going again
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
The ISA landscape is so confused. Exhibit 2: one of the main types of ISA is called ‘Stocks and Shares ISA’. Two words for the same security.
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
The ISA landscape is so confused. Exhibit 1: you can keep funds in cash within a stocks and shares ISA. Removing the Cash ISA would just preference one type of institution over another (banks). on.ft.com/4mjY2ZI UK ministers consider cutting tax-free cash Isa allowance
on.ft.com
UK ministers consider cutting tax-free cash Isa allowance
City groups think such a move will attract money into equity funds and domestic shares
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
yeah on second glance I was wrong - the surpluses of the other countries add up to more than the UK and US deficits, so your OP was the right interpretation; apologies
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
The US’s deficit is the bit that’s unexplained by the bars in the graph
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
Can confirm from my own experience - we always put my name first, but the doctor & school always call my wife first. From the abstract: "Our findings underscore a process through which agents outside the household contribute to within-household gender inequalities." Indeed.
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
New NBER WP by @kbuzard7.bsky.social @laurakgee.bsky.social and @olgastoddard.bsky.social finds mums are 1.4x more likely than dads to get a callback from schools, despite no request for the skew.
nber.org
Who You Gonna Call? Gender Inequality in External Demands for Parental Involvement
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 11/05/2025
This Labour government’s apparently policy in office is to somehow improve growth/productivity while attempting to force a larger share of the overall workforce into lower value add employment and undermining profit centres. It’s definitively an unconventional approach!
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
This would *add* an inflationary bias into the optimal policy rule. The fed has no control over tax and spend, but the denominator and numerator act differently when there’s inflation inflation so…
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 07/05/2025
Opinion from the FT's Editorial Board: 'The US and European countries that tout Israel as an ally that shares their values have issued barely a word of condemnation. They should be ashamed of their silence, and stop enabling Netanyahu to act with impunity.' www.ft.com/content/f5fd...
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Julia Carrie Wong @joolia.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
A world historical crime, taking place in full view, with the perpetrators so convinced of their impunity that they can brag about genocidal intent, and it’s hard not to agree with their calculation that no one will stop them and no one will be held accountable
theguardian.com
Gaza will be entirely destroyed, Israeli minister says
Bezalel Smotrich says Palestinians will ‘leave in great numbers to third countries’, raising fears of ethnic cleansing
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
He Godfather
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
Taking the thumb off the scales…I’ll show myself out
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
We need to replace all compensating variation evaluations with numbers of thumbs. Interpretable like CV, but much less likely to be biased in favour of wealthy people’s preferences.
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Randall Munroe @xkcd.com · 25/04/2025
PhD Timeline xkcd.com/3081
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 20/04/2025
How better to celebrate Easter than with a discussion of whether Donald Trump is a Leviathan or Anti-Leviathan? New post from me about whether it makes sense to use theories about dictatorship to understand Trump's kind of chaotic authoritarianism. 1/n benansell.substack.com/p/donald-tru...
benansell.substack.com
Donald Trump's Anti-Leviathan
What if we abandoned the social contract for the state of nature?
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
While there's probably a Trump effect, this raw number is confounded by Easter - it's in April this year, but March last year
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
This is remarkably close to what we had six days ago. The average tariff rate of most European nations was about 1%.
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
New post from me about Trump's tariffs and why Harold Macmillan was right - we Brits are truly Greece to America's Rome - because our Brexit-era compulsion to think everything was 'simple' has a Trumpian heir. A short thread. 1/n benansell.substack.com/p/simple
benansell.substack.com
Simple
Or perhaps not
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Christoph Koettl @ckoettl.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Video obtained by my colleague Farnaz Fassihi shows how the IDF deliberately attacked, over several minutes, a convoy of ambulances and other emergency vehicles in #Gaza. #Israel wrongly claimed that the vehicles drove without emergency signals and headlights. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/w...
nytimes.com
Video Shows Aid Workers Killed in Gaza Under Gunfire Barrage, With Ambulance Lights On (Gift Article)
The U.N. has said Israel killed the workers. The video appears to contradict Israel’s version of the incident, which described the vehicles as “advancing suspiciously” without headlights or emergency ...
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
All unmentioned brands are uniqlo right?
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
This is great
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Comparisons like this really aren’t meaningful. Do the same for the 1929 crash ($34bn lost peak to trough) to see why. % down is better. This graph says more about market gains in the intervening period than losses in the last few months
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Boom again bsky.app/profile/navi...
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
No. Usually non tariff barrier estimates come from an idea of missing trade in a given direction (based on a model of trade drivers), not the net of both directions
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
But it correctly equates isolation with control
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Patrick Schneider @patricksecon.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Can’t wait to see who figures out the prompt that leads to a list of countries with Australian Antarctic territories in it
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