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Pascal

@pascallth.bsky.social
3.1K followers 304 following 4.8K posts

Political analyst Right makes might Substack: pascallth.substack.com

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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 1h
Don't find this overly reassuring - suggests a leadership that isn't really committed to Rejoin and is going to focus-group/triangulate its positions into the ground Hasn't worked before, will struggle now
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 5h
It takes a long time normally because of domestic alignment and reforms, not clashing interests The guidance for Iceland before their referendum was that they could join in 2-3 years
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 6h
Tapping the sign
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 11h
You don't have to be led by the status quo - if you make an argument you can convince people Relevant also for EU membership
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 12h
While some still deny the Holodomor happened, Russians today are stealing food from Ukrainians
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 15h
Even if talks happen (unlikely), they won't bring the war any closer to an end
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
2026 is feeling a lot like 2022 and the energy crisis is likely only starting to bite To break out of this cycle, we need to embrace domestic clean energy independence, not the denial and delay of fossil fuel trade pascallth.substack.com/p/europes-se...
pascallth.substack.com
Europe’s second energy crisis
Four years on, the lesson still needs to be learned
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Not convinced we really need another look at the options for the UK relationship with the EU There's a lot of work that has already been done on this and we debated publicly much more than almost any other policy Much better for the govt to pick a path and argue for why that is the best option
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 29/09/2026
⚡️Estonia says Russia responsible for arson attack against defense tech company
kyivindependent.com
Estonia says Russia responsible for arson attack against defense tech company
Estonia can say "with certainty" that the attack overnight on Aug. 15 "was an act of sabotage ordered by the special services of the Russian Federation," Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said ...
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
2026 is feeling a lot like 2022 and the energy crisis is likely only starting to bite To break out of this cycle, we need to embrace domestic clean energy independence, not the denial and delay of fossil fuel trade pascallth.substack.com/p/europes-se...
pascallth.substack.com
Europe’s second energy crisis
Four years on, the lesson still needs to be learned
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Stephane Siohan @stefsiohan.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
A drone strike in the centre of #Kyiv at 2pm destroyed the National Academy of Sciences of #Ukraine, 100 meters from the German Embassy and 200 meters from the National Opera House and the city’s main university. The strike was likely aimed at an internet service provider. At least 1 dead.
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Rutte made some comments recently which suggested that NATO does respond but operations are secret Which would be more convincing if we ever saw evidence of such operations leading to something negative in Russia
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Still impossible to speculate on motivations given foreign states can and have hired locals to carry out their plans
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
🎧Got a new pair of headphones - unlike the old pair, the battery on these is replaceable, with a guide included in the box Thank you EU law 🇪🇺
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Life under occupation is just another death But sure, don't worry about actually liberating Ukraine - a ceasefire along the frontline will be just fine
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Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 26/09/2026
Incredible: another Ukrainian famine is unfolding, this time in Russian-occupied Oleshky. The remaining inhabitants of what used to be a thriving small city, now down to about 6000 people, are blockaded by Russian forces and cut off from food and water. www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
Oleshky: Eating garden weeds to survive in Russian-occupied city cut off from food and water
The BBC has spoken to residents in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky who say they are being "constantly shelled".
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Claims about the dangers faced by Russian speakers is exactly how Russia laid the groundwork for the 2014 attack on Ukraine www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...
pravda.com.ua
Putin claims Russian speakers' rights are violated in Baltic states but says Russia is not preparing for war in Europe
Putin has claimed Russian speakers face rights violations in the Baltic states but denied Russia is preparing military action against Europe.
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Anton Gerashchenko @antongerashchenko.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The school notebook of the 14-year-old boy killed by Russia in Kyiv today. The Russian strike killed him in the middle of the day, in his own room. His desk still had the notebook with unfinished homework.
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Attempt to peel away support from Saudi Arabia? Doesn't fix the fuel supplies though, which is the main incentive for Europe to support Riyadh
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Canada isn't on the cusp of founding a new alliance of middle powers More accurate to say that Ottowa is reaching out to Brussels in order to ask for the EU's protection pascallth.substack.com/p/what-carne...
pascallth.substack.com
What Carney gets wrong about ‘middle powers’
And why the EU is not a good fit
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
There's no ambiguity in the EU position: we can Rejoin if we accept the normal terms for new members
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 24/09/2026
Russia could attack Nato country within months, Denmark warns ft.trib.al/s0E0guk
ft.trib.al
Russia could attack Nato country within months, Denmark warns
Intelligence service cites ‘low but growing risk’ of troop movement into neighbouring country or attack on infrastructure
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Tony Blair is a plant sent to undermine Rejoin www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
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Richard Corbett CBE @richardcorbett.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
New Swedish Prime Minister, asked whether Britain should rejoin the EU: “Yes. Please. Tomorrow.” www.politico.eu/article/magd...
politico.eu
‘Sweden is back’: Magdalena Andersson has big plans for Europe
In an interview with POLITICO, Sweden’s election winner reveals her unfinished business with Russia, Trump — and the far right.
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
There are constant warnings that Russia is preparing new violent actions against Europe Instead of waiting for disaster, we should tell Moscow now how we will respond and what they are inviting Ideally starting by closing Ukraine's skies www.theguardian.com/world/2026/s...
theguardian.com
European spy chiefs warn Moscow is planning more decisive action against Nato
Exclusive: Intelligence officers say Russian campaign could intensify ‘in months, not years’ – but that panic risks playing into Kremlin psy-ops
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Canada isn't on the cusp of founding a new alliance of middle powers More accurate to say that Ottowa is reaching out to Brussels in order to ask for the EU's protection pascallth.substack.com/p/what-carne...
pascallth.substack.com
What Carney gets wrong about ‘middle powers’
And why the EU is not a good fit
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Gives too much credit to Medvedev, who is just an attack dog Someone criticises Russia, he dutifully barks back
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The US can make Ukrainian strikes less effective by holding back certain intelligence (which they have been providing recently), but it can't stop them entirely without Kyiv's agreement
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Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The Trump administration is preparing to sanction the ICC as a whole and cut it off from everyday financial transactions, insurance providers and IT services and products, which would leave the court unable to operate, Reuters reports.
reuters.com
Trump administration prepares sanctions against International Criminal Court, sources say
President ‌Donald Trump's administration has prepared sanctions against the entire International Criminal Court and plans to announce them soon, two sources familiar with the matter said, a move that ...
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
There is a deal between the US and Denmark over Greenland, until Trump decides there isn't - which could be any time between tomorrow and the end of his presidency
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 19/09/2026
AI chatbots give wrong answers to financial queries ‘most of the time’ ft.trib.al/oImlEFY
ft.trib.al
AI chatbots give wrong answers to financial queries ‘most of the time’
Report finds some chatbots ignored upcoming tax changes and hallucinated rules
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Because putting your energy supply in the hands of a dictator worked really well the first time www.reuters.com/world/putin-...
reuters.com
EXCLUSIVE: Putin envoy and far-right AfD prepare talks to get Russian gas back for Germany, sources say
Russian President Vladimir Putin's top economic envoy and Germany's far-right AfD leadership have begun preparations to meet next year to discuss restarting gas supplies to Europe's biggest economy, t...
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FRANCE 24 English @en.france24.com · 18/09/2026
🔴 BREAKING - Macron orders plan to protect France critical infrastructure against 'Russian hybrid attacks'
f24.my
Macron orders plan to protect France's critical infrastructure against 'Russian hybrid attacks'
French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday said he had ordered measures to protect France's critical infrastructure and defence industry sites from "Russian hybrid attacks", adding that the threat from…
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Notes from Poland @notesfrompoland.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Russia is planning drone and missile strikes on eastern NATO countries, which it would present as accidental, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has told parliament, citing intelligence sources. The aim would be to create a sense of "NATO's helplessness", he says.
notesfrompoland.com
Russia planning "accidental" strikes on eastern NATO states, warns Poland
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The proliferation of EU+Non-EU set-ups stems from a misdiagnosis of the problem You can keep rejigging the structure, but it won't resolve a lack of political will
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
French presidential candidate and leader of Macron's party calls for United States of Europe www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/p...
publicsenat.fr
Gabriel Attal veut construire « les Etats-Unis d’Europe », proposition choc pour « relancer l’idéal européen »
Avec ce « rêve » des Etats-Unis d’Europe, le candidat Renaissance à la présidentielle met sur la table une proposition polémique. Ce « saut fédéral » se ferait d’abord avec quelques Etats, sur le terr...
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Politics UK @politicsuk.com · 17/09/2026
🚨 NEW: The average price of fuel in the UK is now at its highest level since the start of the Iran war
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Was never going to be four freedoms But sure, doing more on digital trade with some youth exchange is plausible Call it what you want, it's a slightly improved FTA
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
We already have the reports that confirm capitals weren't properly consulted on this VdL just wanted a flashy headline with her name attached
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
'Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada's incoming ambassador to the European Union, says 'we're not there' after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen offered to open the door to associate membership' www.cbc.ca/player/play/...
cbc.ca
Canadian ambassador focused on 'results' after EU chief opens door to associate membership
Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada's incoming ambassador to the European Union, says 'we're not there' after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen offered to open the door to associate membership...
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Sadly vdL has name dropped the idea in her SOTEU speech so there's going to be at least another cycle of dead-end speculation
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Confirmation of my scepticism coming through even faster than I expected www.ft.com/content/2e2e...
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Will be just about as successful as the European Political Community - a more 'inclusive' forum by working outside EU structures and failing to really achieve anything because it's outside of EU structures
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Going to pin my colours to the mast and say I'm a sceptic regarding the stories of a revolutionary new EU-Canada deal pascallth.substack.com/p/time-to-ge...
pascallth.substack.com
Time to get real about Canada
And the serious conversation that can unlock for the EU
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Christian Christensen @chrchristensen.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Sweden's Social Democrats on target to get 99 seats in parliament (out of 349). That's their worst result since 1928. In March, Denmark's Social Democrats had their worst election result since 1903. What to they have in common? Mimicking "hard line" right-wing policies. It's a recipe for disaster.
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
'Visa free movement' is also how the media originally reported the talks between the EU and Australia - which ended up being much more modest in reality
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Like an MP on the radio this morning who defended the RNLI on the basis that small boat crossings were down
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Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Would suggest a more serious position from the Americans, but still wouldn't address the main issue - that the Russians aren't interested in peace
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Anton Gerashchenko @antongerashchenko.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Defense Minister of Germany Boris Pistorius: Preparing Ukraine for winter is of the highest priority and it requires us to act resolutely and immediately. I have decided alongside NATO Summit to deliver urgently needed PAC-2 interceptor missiles from Bundeswehr stocks to Ukraine.
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