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Omar Wasow

@owasow.bsky.social
39K followers 4.2K following 4.3K posts

Asst Prof, Berkeley, Political Science: 1/ Agenda Seeding j.mp/agenda-seeding 2/ Race as a Bundle of Sticks j.mp/bundle-of 3/ Text as Behavior cup.org/4cUmoXi 4/ Plutopopulism cup.org/4cfm0Az

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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 20h
Count the metaphors: “State Senator John Liu called the decision by Ms. Hochul a ‘Faustian bargain with President Trump.’ ‘This deal jeopardizes that firm footing by opening the door to a slippery slope where we risk diverting funding away from public education,’ Mr. Liu said in a statement.”
nytimes.com
Hochul Opts New York Into Trump-Backed School Voucher Plan (Gift Article)
The governor’s decision, which is at odds with New York’s teachers’ unions, would provide federal tax dollars to parents for both private and public school expenses.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Overheard California word-of-the-day: Clamping — variant of Glamping but *city camping.* Guy working a retail job explained, “I removed the seats in a Honda Odyssey, put in a narrow mattress and now it’s home.”
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Watch the social construction of “Western” identity at work
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Have you met men?
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
“Our research suggests that Trump was not necessarily attracting male supporters who are as confidently masculine as the former president presented himself to be. Rather, our findings suggest that Trump appeared to appeal more to men who may be insecure about their manhood.” — Knowles & DiMuccio
psychologytoday.com
Why Do Some Men Support Aggressive Policies and Politicians?
Does the idea of "precarious manhood" contribute to aggressive politics?
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Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
I think people should listen to what the administration trying to bring back spectacle lynchings, race riots, and middle passage-esque deportation voyages are trying to tell you about themselves. bsky.app/profile/bren...
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Guilty as charged
Amazon About You states:

Product Preferences
Consistently replenishes coffee supplies
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
“Less than 48 hours after the Post story, he called it a ‘coordinated political hit meant to drive me out of this race’ and his social media team posted a new ad of him in a tight black T-shirt that showed off his Marvel-worthy biceps. The slogan running across it read, ‘Make Politics Sexy Again.’”
nytimes.com
Bondage Photos Weren’t Part of the Campaign Plan (Gift Article)
But Chris Gallant, a Black Hawk pilot and Democrat who is running to represent Long Island in Congress, is making the most of life post-tabloid reveal.
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Verona Campione @rickhough.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
This is a wonderful piece of writing and journalism on the murky world of American frat houses.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Author Suein Hwang?
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
“The insurance industry ranked American fraternities as the sixth-worst insurance risk in the country—just ahead of toxic-waste-removal companies.” www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...
theatlantic.com
The Dark Power of Fraternities
A yearlong investigation of Greek houses reveals their endemic, lurid, and sometimes tragic problems—and a sophisticated system for shifting the blame.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
“At Cupertino's top schools, administrators, parents and students say white students end up in the stereotyped role often applied to other minority groups: the underachievers.” Gift link: www.wsj.com/articles/SB1...
wsj.com
The New White Flight - WSJ
In Silicon Valley, two high schools with outstanding academic reputations are losing white students as Asian students move in. Why?
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
WSJ 2005: “Whites aren't quitting the schools because the schools are failing academically. Quite the contrary: Many white parents say they're leaving because the schools are too academically driven and too narrowly invested in subjects such as math and science…” Gift link:
wsj.com
The New White Flight - WSJ
In Silicon Valley, two high schools with outstanding academic reputations are losing white students as Asian students move in. Why?
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Echoes of old WSJ article The New White Flight In Silicon Valley, two high schools with outstanding academic reputations are losing white students as Asian students move in. www.wsj.com/articles/SB1...
wsj.com
The New White Flight - WSJ
In Silicon Valley, two high schools with outstanding academic reputations are losing white students as Asian students move in. Why?
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Schrödinger’s whiteness
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
LLMs definitely a challenge but method works on transcribed speech, works on nonresponse, and can be applied to more organic exchanges like texting. So, likely still useful in a variety of contexts. Also, challenge of LLMs is bigger than open-ended text so already a priority for survey industry.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
In case anyone is interested, here’s my thread from on Text as Behavior: bsky.app/profile/owas...
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
My thanks to @kwcollins.bsky.social for highlighting this post, and to @gelliottmorris.com for experimenting with writing as a measure of effort. For more about “Text as Behavior,” see cup.org/4cUmoXi
cup.org
Text as Behavior | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Text as Behavior
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Very nice application of @owasow.bsky.social's recent @polanalysis.bsky.social article in the latest (paywalled) issue of @gelliottmorris.com's newsletter www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-06... Polling folks, this is one subscription worth paying for
gelliottmorris.com
If the polls end up missing, this may have been our early warning sign
“Low-effort” survey respondents vote very differently than other poll-takers, and that could be biasing polls by up to 3.5 points against
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
120.6K following
Screenshot of a social media profile for “Becky Masson” (@easyrecipesdash.com). The profile photo shows a smiling woman outdoors holding a white cat. The account has 14.6K followers, follows 120.6K accounts, and has 454 posts. Bio: “Easy, #healthy & delicious #recipes to inspire your daily #cooking!” with a link to easyrecipesdash.com. Additional hashtags include food, diet, meals, wellness, fitness, lifestyle, cats, birds, gardening, nature, and photography.
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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 04/10/2026
What’s the evidence on rent control? I charted the findings from 112 studies: Great for rent-controlled tenants ✅ But: Pushes up rents for other people ❌ Pushes down new housing construction ❌ Pushes down building quality ❌
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Conte Mosca 🎃 @contemosca.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
well but if you count “pretending the Reconstruction Amendments aren’t really part of the Constitution” then Shelby County scores higher 🤬🤬🤬
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Yes, fair-weather originalism.
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Scott Lemieux @lemieuxlgm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
As someone who does teach con law, the idea that the Republicans on the Roberts Court are just too committed to "originalism" is farcical. You will search the opinions in Shelby County or Trump v. US (inter many alia) in vain for even the slightest trace of it
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
“Monday’s ruling in Trump v. Anderson underscores the undeniable reality: The court practices an originalism of convenience.” www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | With Colorado ruling, the court displays an ‘originalism of convenience’
Intellectual flexibility is something to applaud. Too bad it appears to be just another means to an end.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Not sure I follow. Dated Oct 2026. References most recent term: “After the Court’s 2025–2026 term, it’s fair to say that this revolution has reached the end of its beginning.” So maybe you mean it’s a 2016 perspective that’s out of date?
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Not a legal expert but seems like “adherence to originalism” has been highly selective, not remotely “blind.”
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Yes, issues were apparent a decade ago. Perhaps can inform our understanding of the present.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Recent rambling TIME interview reminded me of this 2017 @statnews.com piece comparing decades of Trump’s on-air interviews to Q&A sessions since 2016 inauguration and found the “differences are striking and unmistakable.” www.statnews.com/2017/05/23/d...
statnews.com
Trump wasn’t always so linguistically challenged. What could explain the change?
STAT asked experts to compare Trump's speech from decades ago to that in 2017. All noticed deterioration, which may signal changes in Trump's brain health.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
bsky.app/profile/owas...
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
bsky.app/profile/benn...
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Pedro Gonzalez: “Can we really trust you, JD? You know, can you really be trusted to be like an ally to like the hardcore immigration restrictionists who for them, immigration is not, again, merely a policy issue. It's an existential, it's whether or not this country will be more or less white.”
open.spotify.com
Sarah Longwell and Pedro Gonzalez: Meet the Young MAGA Edgelords—and the One Who Got Away
The Bulwark Daily · Episode
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Interviewee at The Bulwark argued recently one of Vance’s most important projects is to signal to MAGA base that—despite being married to the daughter of immigrants and the father of mixed kids—he, too, is a true believer in the myth that immigration poses an existential threat to white America.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Synthetic respondents sandbagging data centers 😂
Alt text: Chart titled “Notable errors in AI polls on ‘timely and topical’ issues,” comparing U.S. adults with synthetic respondents. Synthetic respondents overestimate Trump job approval, 46% versus 34% (+12 points), and sharply underestimate acceptance of immigration officers wearing face coverings, 17% versus 38% (−21), and having heard a lot about data centers, 3% versus 25% (−22).
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Robb Willer @robbwiller.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
🚨Come work with us! 🚨 We're hiring a postdoc for Stanford's AI for Public Benefit Lab (ai4pb.stanford.edu), in partnership with @stanfordhai.bsky.social Open to PhDs from psych, poli sci, sociology, CS, econ, HCI, data science, etc. Please share! Position: postdocs.stanford.edu/prospective/...
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Excellent piece notes “the fraternity lawsuit is a lucrative mini-segment of the personal-injury business.” Seems like there ought to be a national, mission-driven firm that specializes in suing universities and frats in cases of sexual assault.
theatlantic.com
The Dark Power of Fraternities
A yearlong investigation of Greek houses reveals their endemic, lurid, and sometimes tragic problems—and a sophisticated system for shifting the blame.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
“In 2024, Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley delivered a political earthquake: majority support for Republicans for the first time in modern history, a shift that helped reshape national politics. Now, that support appears to be evaporating even more quickly than it arrived.“
nytimes.com
Hispanic Voters on the Texas Border Have Soured on Trump (Gift Article)
In 2024, these voters were an essential part of the winning Republican coalition. Now, many feel abandoned and furious, complicating the party’s chances in November.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
“It doesn’t help that X, the burnerverse’s platform of choice, is famously subject to little moderation. Since Musk’s acquisition, it‘s become the ideal petri dish for coordinated harassment. ‘They’re also financially incentivized by followers, by views, by clicks…they’re making money off this.‘”
wired.com
A College Girl Was Exploited on Camera. A Network of Anonymous Men Got to Work
Maddie Kowalski is one of countless young women who’ve had their lives destroyed by the burnerverse, a loosely connected online community of sports fans. Now she’s fighting back.
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Cooper S. Beckett @coopersbeckett.com · 29/09/2026
Took me way longer than I'd like to admit to make this video of Eric Schmitt R-MO being utterly inept with Jack Smith as Katie Britt R-AL looks on
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Stan Oklobdzija @stano.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
It would be a monumental improvement for America, but especially for the Republican Party, if we elected the President through a plurality vote.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
“Polling by UMass Amherst found that over the 13 months from July 2025 to August 2026, the percentage of voters who ‘strongly disapprove’ of Trump rose to 54 percent from 49 percent, while the percentage saying they ‘strongly approve’ fell to 14 percent from 21 percent.”
nytimes.com
Opinion | Trump’s Luck Is Finally Running Out (Gift Article)
Voters are showing a growing determination to repudiate his presidency.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
One explanation bsky.app/profile/tena...
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Estimated gas and diesel price increases versus one year ago in states with competitive Senate races — Nebraska 63% — Michigan 62% — Iowa 62% — Ohio 61% — Kansas 61% — Texas 61% — Minnesota 55% — Maine 54% — North Carolina 53% — Georgia 52% — New Hampshire 52% www.natesilver.net/p/diesel-pri...
natesilver.net
Diesel prices could crush Republicans in the heartland
Inflation in fuel prices is much higher in diesel-heavy farm states — which happen to coincide with competitive Senate races.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Yah, the diagonal hatch pattern for the competitive Senate races gets lost in the sea of red.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Voters are seeing red www.natesilver.net/p/diesel-pri...
Alt text: U.S. map showing estimated year-over-year increases in fuel costs as of Sept. 22, 2026, combining each state’s change in regular gasoline prices with its relative consumption of gasoline and diesel, including heating oil. States are shaded from pale yellow to dark red, with larger increases generally concentrated in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Diagonal hatching marks states with competitive U.S. Senate races. Source: AAA and U.S. Energy Information Administration.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Beautiful!
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I endorse! Photos are soooo much better!
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Am currently packing for a move and came across an old DSLR and its powerful, heavy lenses. Was reminded of how much of having a hobby not that long ago involved esoteric rabbit holes like cameras and lenses. Now, it feels like the smartphone has crowded out a lot of those healthy obsessions.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
“When Texas Republicans gerrymandered their House map to make five Democratic-held seats significantly redder, they carved out ~60% of Ms. De La Cruz’s constituency. She is now pitching herself to many voters who are less familiar with her—and facing a challenger with sky-high name recognition.”
nytimes.com
Bobby Pulido, a Texan Singer, Puts Republicans on Defense (Gift Article)
Bobby Pulido, a Tejano musician running as a Democrat for the House, has left his Republican opponent struggling to match his star power in a district that President Trump won easily in 2024.
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