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Argentina has a slight edge too based on my models bsky.app/profile/oost...

penaltystats.maxoosterwegel.com

explore for yourself at penaltystats.maxoosterwegel.com

Penalty skills for England - Argentina. England have some of the best takers in Harry Kane and Ivan Toney, but Argentina has an edge in the shootout if England play Pickford instead of Henderson. #WorldCup #WC2026 #ARGENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

penaltystats.maxoosterwegel.com

run your own simulations at penaltystats.maxoosterwegel.com/shootout.html

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based on my simulations you should prefer the best GK by quite some margin!

In a penalty shoot out, which team would you pick to win? 1: best 10 pk takers in the world (eg Kane), but the worst pk GK (Begovic) 2: worst 10 pk takers (eg Chricarito) but best pk GK (eg Diego Alves). Simulation informed answer to follow! #WorldCup #WorldCup2026

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may be of interest to you

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related to the penalties: I have looked into penalties extensively and written up two blog post on it (see maxoosterwegel.com) and have made Bayesian skill estimates available for 300k players (penaltystats.maxoosterwegel.com incl so simulator!) and yes Messi is actually below average probably

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Reposted by Max

Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

And Rice is right, England has very good penalty takers! (Also a very bad one with Ollie Watkins) #WorldCup #WC2026 #NORENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

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Penalty stopping skills for both teams:

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(sorry forgot Norway their gks)

And Rice is right, England has very good penalty takers! (Also a very bad one with Ollie Watkins) #WorldCup #WC2026 #NORENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

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My model even suggest that England's chances of winning a shootout vs. Norway jump by 10 percentage points if Henderson is in goal instead of Pickford. #WorldCup #WC2026 #NORENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

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Tuchel would never do it because England has won 3 shootouts with Pickford and I imagine the media backlash would be huge if they lose (and pks are still a game of chance), but Henderson has been the better penalty stopper in his career by far. #WorldCup #WC2026 #NORENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

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he likely is their best penalty stopper by far so i can see the logic beyond the coach just sticking with what he knows

Note that I did not say anything on if this would help Belgium get to a shootout in the first place

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Penalty taking skills quite similar between Belgium and Spain #WorldCup #WC2026 #ESPBEL #FIFAWorldCup

Courtois off injured for Lammens. If the match gets to pks, this may in fact increase Belgium's chances as my model gives a 63% chance that Lammens is the better pk stopper. They need every advantage they can get with Unai Simon being one of the best penalty stoppers #WorldCup #WC2026 #ESPBEL

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Reposted by Max

France - Morocco penalty taking and stopping skills. Two of the very best penalty stoppers with Maignan and Bounou. Both teams consist of very average penalty takers on the other hand. If they get to a shootout, we may see multiple saves. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

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Reposted by Max

And bonus: all of the penalties Mbappe took in his career. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

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And bonus: all of the penalties Mbappe took in his career. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

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My model believes a shootout between Morocco and France would be a literal coin toss! #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

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Bounou and Maignan penalties faced maps. Both among the very best at both reading the taker's intention, and saving the penalty. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

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they convert at roughly the same rates on average see maxoosterwegel.com/blog/penalty... Akanji was a bad choice based on his record though see bsky.app/profile/oost...

maxoosterwegel.com

Everything you’ve (n)ever wanted to know about penalty kicks: descriptives – Max Oosterwegel -- blog

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Everything you’ve (n)ever wanted to know about penalty kicks: descriptives – Max Oosterwegel -- blog

especially because they do not convert at much lower rates on average! (see maxoosterwegel.com/blog/penalty... )

maxoosterwegel.com

some of the best pk takers in the world do something like a stutter (eg Kruse, Bruno Fernandes, Lewandowski) players with stutters consistently show up as best deceivers iirc (see my blog). i would say it’s a high variance skill: some do it exceptionally well, others quite horribly bad

true but hard to model that of course! though I think it’s mainly that you invite critique with a substitute. no one bar some twitter rando like me will be disappointed if you don’t make the substitution

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Reposted by Max

and here are the other estimated skills for both teams. Camilo Vargas is really excellent at stopping penalties! Columbia their penalty takers seem to be (sub)par. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #SUICOL

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let’s hope so! what do you think about my Swiss substitution call?

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their penalty takers are indeed not good but their goalkeeper is very good! bsky.app/profile/oost...

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no goalkeeper substitution by the Swiss. this could cost them.. (or not because football)

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pretty much expected with the amount of money there is on the line no? also, as a fellow epidemiologist you may be interested in my statistical modeling during this WC, e.g. bsky.app/profile/oost...

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if Switzerland vs Columbia gets to a penalty shootout, they should bring on Keller for Kobel to increase their shootout chances by 8 percentage points (per my Monte Carlo simulation based on estimated skill levels)! #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #SUICOL

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and their shots faced maps for completeness sake

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If we get to a shootout, Switzerland would do well to sub Keller on for Kobel. My model estimates a 77% chance that Marvin Keller is the better penalty stopper. And according to a new model of mine, this could improve their chances from 39% (with Kobel) to 47% (with Keller) in the shootout! #SUICOL

he spreads well which makes him harder to read, and he usually leathers it which explains why he outperforms the expected goals (no data on ball speed). the leathering may also explain your nerves?