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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Penalty taking and stopping skill for Spain and Argentina. Both teams have excellent penalty stoppers. Argentina got a slight edge in a shootout per my model. Expect Spain to bring in Borja Iglesias for penalties as he has one of the best shot maps around. #WC #WorldCup #ARGESP #WorldCupFinal

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Penalty skills for England - Argentina. England have some of the best takers in Harry Kane and Ivan Toney, but Argentina has an edge in the shootout if England play Pickford instead of Henderson. #WorldCup #WC2026 #ARGENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

based on my simulations you should prefer the best GK by quite some margin!

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

related to the penalties: I have looked into penalties extensively and written up two blog post on it (see maxoosterwegel.com) and have made Bayesian skill estimates available for 300k players (penaltystats.maxoosterwegel.com incl so simulator!) and yes Messi is actually below average probably

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

(sorry forgot Norway their gks)

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

And Rice is right, England has very good penalty takers! (Also a very bad one with Ollie Watkins) #WorldCup #WC2026 #NORENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

My model even suggest that England's chances of winning a shootout vs. Norway jump by 10 percentage points if Henderson is in goal instead of Pickford. #WorldCup #WC2026 #NORENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Tuchel would never do it because England has won 3 shootouts with Pickford and I imagine the media backlash would be huge if they lose (and pks are still a game of chance), but Henderson has been the better penalty stopper in his career by far. #WorldCup #WC2026 #NORENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

he likely is their best penalty stopper by far so i can see the logic beyond the coach just sticking with what he knows

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Penalty taking skills quite similar between Belgium and Spain #WorldCup #WC2026 #ESPBEL #FIFAWorldCup

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Courtois off injured for Lammens. If the match gets to pks, this may in fact increase Belgium's chances as my model gives a 63% chance that Lammens is the better pk stopper. They need every advantage they can get with Unai Simon being one of the best penalty stoppers #WorldCup #WC2026 #ESPBEL

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

And bonus: all of the penalties Mbappe took in his career. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

My model believes a shootout between Morocco and France would be a literal coin toss! #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Bounou and Maignan penalties faced maps. Both among the very best at both reading the taker's intention, and saving the penalty. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

France - Morocco penalty taking and stopping skills. Two of the very best penalty stoppers with Maignan and Bounou. Both teams consist of very average penalty takers on the other hand. If they get to a shootout, we may see multiple saves. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

and here are the other estimated skills for both teams. Camilo Vargas is really excellent at stopping penalties! Columbia their penalty takers seem to be (sub)par. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #SUICOL

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

and their shots faced maps for completeness sake

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

If we get to a shootout, Switzerland would do well to sub Keller on for Kobel. My model estimates a 77% chance that Marvin Keller is the better penalty stopper. And according to a new model of mine, this could improve their chances from 39% (with Kobel) to 47% (with Keller) in the shootout! #SUICOL

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

he was indeed really good at taking penalties! (not the very best though, Harry Kane is better per my model for example)

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Messi and penalties: likely even below average over this career. He's been especially bad at deceiving the keeper, ranking in the bottom decile in sending the goalkeeper the wrong way. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #EGYARG

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Penalty takers for both teams. Tielemans has not always been a sure bet for penalties surprisingly enough! US squad has not taken many penalties #USABEL #BELUSA #FIFAWorldCup #WC2026 #WorldCup

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Courtois is a surprisingly average penalty stopper compared to the other great goalkeepers at this World Cup. Model suggests Lammens would probably do about as well, maybe even better. #USABEL #BELUSA #FIFAWorldCup #WC2026 #WorldCup

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Which Matt defends the net for a US-Belgium penalty shootout? The US has rotated both, but my model backs Matt Turner. Data gives him a 77% probability of being the superior career penalty stopper (other pk statistics below) #USABEL #BELUSA #FIFAWorldCup #WC2026 #WorldCup

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

thanks for the mention! will read later today. in the meantime here's some additional figures from my tooling that complement my previous post (Beach his shot map included despite no placement data for completeness sake)

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

My model puts an 84% chance on Henderson being a better penalty stopper than Pickford over their careers so far. #ENGMEX #WorldCup #FIFAWorldCup

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Penalty taking / stopping skill for England and Mexico. Some of the very best penalty in football play tonight with Jiménez, Kane and Toney. Henderson has likely been the better penalty stopper than Pickford during his career. Will Tuchel dare to put Henderson on? #ENGMEX #WorldCup #FIFAWorldCup

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 05/07/2026

Penalty taking / stopping skill for Brazil and Norway. Both teams have very good penalty stoppers on the bench. I can't imagine Brazil substituting Alisson Becker though. Norway also unlikely with the uncertainty in skill level. Brazil appear to have the better takers #NORBRA #WorldCup #FIFAWorldCup

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

i can't believe i'm posting this, but penalty taking and stopping skills for Argentina and Cape Verde #ARGCVP #FIFAWorldCup #WorldCup2026

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

both Australia and Egypt should consider a goalkeeper substitution as the better penalty stoppers are on the bench #AUSEGY #FIFAWorldCup #WorldCup2026

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

To illustrate just how great Bounou’s save was: the shot had a 99% goal probability based on location. But knowing Summerville seems to have a habit of shooting to the left, Bounou gambled on a small step to his right #NEDMAR

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

if The Netherlands vs Morocco ends in penalties, here's the skill estimates from my model. the Dutch strikers are awful and Bounou is excellent. let's hope we can avoid penalties (by winning in regular or extra time)

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

and a small fix to this post, because the scraper accidentally picked up some non-professional games (U21 level etc., also filtered some second tier non-European leagues) - conclusions largely the same

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

if Germany vs Paraguay ends in penalties, here's the skill estimates from my model. not much separating them in penalty taking skill, but Neuer seems clearly the better penalty stopper

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

and the Dutch strikers seem really quite bad at penalties, wow

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

also Bounou from Morocco is really, really good at stopping penalties

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

now that the World Cup knockouts are officially underway, I looked into the penalty-stopping skills of the Dutch goalkeepers. there's a good chance (a 82% chance per my model) that our second goalkeeper is the better penalty stopper! time for another goalkeeper substitution?

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Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

first penalties of WC2026 have been taken, so good timing to share my analysis of 28,000 penalty kicks: maxoosterwegel.com/blog/penalty... did you know for example that goalkeepers commit to a side 97.2% of the time? and that left and right footed shooters mirror each other almost perfectly?

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