iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Now 2014 - this was a case of what we with Henry Hale have called "Rallying Round The Oligarch" a matter of elite coordination.

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As always I would not the be social scientist I am if I didn't warn that voter preferences/intentions can change very rapidly - especially in an actually electoral campaign context. Here are reminders of the 2014 and 2019 election campaigns against results 2019 "The dark horse"

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Here is a comparison using the same survey providers for data covering the whole of the last 12 months.

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This is not to say that replacement of Fedorov (after power struggle with Sirskyy) - was right or wrong. But suggesting that choice was made entirely because of a rapid rise of Fedorov in polls does not add up. As of July 2026 he is polling at 3/4% with no significant rise.

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That is also why we are thrilled to host the first BASU @thebasuorg.bsky.social Conference at UoM @uomhums.bsky.social @uomsoss.bsky.social @uompols.bsky.social @duncanivison.bsky.social with leading political figures and policy makers and journalists engaging with UK's top scholars on Ukraine.

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On a personal note - UoM regularly supports & encourages my own impact in relation to our research on Ukraine & democracy in wartime - thank you!

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This achievement highlights the high standard of UoM research, acknowledging its hugely important and positive impact in relation to world’s most pressing issues.

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Olga Onuch @oonuch.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

Very proud that UoM ranks 1st in the world for THE Sustainability Impact Ratings. We are one of few elite global universities (40th - QS 2027) consistently rank in the top 10 in both in "THE Impact Rankings" & "QS World Sustainability Rankings."

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& just like that, in the midst of a serious diplomatic misstep by Nawrocki, Zelensky returns the Order not by diplomatic pouch but by Nowa Poshta … just like millions of ordinary Ukrainians. Proving that although he is tired, imperfect, and makes mistakes, in many ways he is still just one of them.

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Olga Onuch @oonuch.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

11th century Lavra Monestary (built in 1051) set on fire as a result of Russian air raid this night. Also on fire was a section of Art Arsenal Building. Four victims on sites thus far.

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It’s Europe Day! Being a supporter of democracy increases the likelihood that a Pole would want Poland to stay in the EU by 12 percentage points at a statistically significant level. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... @jcms-eu.bsky.social

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It is Europe day! Democrats in Belarus (those who identify democracy as the best system for the country) are more likely to want Belarus to join the EU! Being a democrat in Belarus increases the likelihood of wanting to join the EU by 22 percentage points! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

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It’s Europe day! If someone didn’t support democracy in 2019 but became a supporter of democracy by 2021 the likelihood that they came to want Ukraine to join the EU increased by 20 percentage points!! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

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Olga Onuch @oonuch.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

It’s Europe day! In Ukraine - employing panel data - we can see that if somebody wasn’t yet a democrat, their becoming a democrat increases the likelihood that they come to support joining the EU in one year, by 12 percentage points! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

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Great to host @tymofiibrik.bsky.social Kyiv School of Economics @uomsoss.bsky.social after a productive day discussing possible research & teaching collaborations & a tour de force presentation we celebrated with @uompols.bsky.social - here is to future co-authorships & friendship UoM and KSE

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Olga Onuch @oonuch.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

How can we understand society navigating ongoing & crisis ridden political and economic development and reforms? How long-term social trends help explain Ukraine’s resilience in the face of Russia’s full-scale invasion? How do societies adapt under conditions of prolonged political & social stress?

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Olga Onuch @oonuch.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

What is the Political Sociology of Crisis?: 30 Years of Sociological Data from Ukraine A Candid Discussion and Q&A with Dr. Tymofii Brik Internationally Leading Ukrainian Sociologist and Rector of the Kyiv School of Economics 13:00 -14:30 April 24th

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HOT OFF THE PRESS @EEPolitics Symposium ‘Understanding Ukraine’s resistance, resilience and reform in the face of Russia’s war’ tandfonline.com/toc/fjcs21/4...

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CHECK IT OUT @eepolitics.bsky.social Symposium ‘Understanding Ukraine’s resistance, resilience and reform in the face of Russia’s war’ tandfonline.com/toc/fjcs21/4...

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New !! @eepolitics.bsky.social Symposium ‘Understanding Ukraine’s resistance, resilience and reform in the face of Russia’s war’ tandfonline.com/toc/fjcs21/4...

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Last BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST, "(Anti)corruption and conditionality in the geopolitical enlargement: Ukraine’s EU accession in comparative perspective" @popovaprof.bsky.social @eepolitics.bsky.social tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Next, "Predicting budget robustness of Ukrainian local self-government during Russia’s war against Ukraine" Maryna Rabinovych @tymofiibrik.bsky.social Igor Piddubny Andrii Darkovich Myroslava Savisko @ValentynHatsko Serhii Tytiuk @eepolitics.bsky.social tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Next, "Beyond the rent-seeking: resilience and civic transformation of Ukrainian business" by Inna Melnykovska @eepolitics.bsky.social tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Next, "Beyond the rent-seeking: resilience and civic transformation of Ukrainian business" by Inna Melnykovska @eepolitics.bsky.social tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Next, "Ukrainian public opinion and the path to peace with Russia" tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... by @alinanychyk.bsky.social and Paul D'Anieri

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Next, "Ukrainian public opinion and the path to peace with Russia" tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... by @alinanychyk.bsky.social and Paul D'Anieri

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First up "A duty to defend: survey analysis of citizen wartime engagement in Ukraine" doi.org/10.1080/2159... @oonuch.bsky.social @emmamateo.bsky.social

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First up "A duty to defend: survey analysis of citizen wartime engagement in Ukraine" doi.org/10.1080/2159... @oonuch.bsky.social @emmamateo.bsky.social

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The @eepolitics.bsky.social symposium introduction highlights new theoretical, empirical, and methodological lessons of studying war whilst the war unfolds and rages on. How do we study war? tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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The @eepolitics.bsky.social symposium on Russia's war in Ukraine answers key questions about how does a country at war - resist whilst pursuing major reform simultaneously... tandfonline.com/toc/fjcs21/4...

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This @eepolitics.bsky.social symposium is the product of five years of diligent social science research on Ukraine’s resistance, resilience and reform in the face of Russia’s war tandfonline.com/toc/fjcs21/4...

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New !! @eepolitics.bsky.social Symposium ‘Understanding Ukraine’s resistance, resilience and reform in the face of Russia’s war’ tandfonline.com/toc/fjcs21/4...

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The lead gets bigger and bigger! Resounding.

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#Orban admits defeat!!!!! #Hungary votes Landslide win for #Magyar and #Tisza

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53% of the votes in #Tisza likely is growing if correct we are in landslide territory. #Hungary votes

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45.7% of the votes in and #Tisza lead seems* to be growing. #Hungary votes

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Hungary Votes! So far with only 29% of votes counted we do see an early lead for Tisza. Too soon to say for sure. We keep watching.

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It’s NOT “Orthodox” Easter. In fact, a couple million eastern rite Catholics celebrate today too. Many are Ukrainians. So, Happy Easter to all those who celebrate!

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Employing panel data a strong sense of civic duty increases probability of NEW civilian engagement by 55 % points If a civilian didn’t have strong civic duty when all-out war began & developed it they become more likely to engage in the war effort. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Having a strong sense of civic duty direct action civilian engagement by 13 percentage points . www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Having a strong sense of civic duty increases civilian engagement by 16 percentage points. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Being a democrat increases civilian engagement by five percentage points. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Using extensive purpose designed survey data we find the 80% of the civilian population and gauges in the war effort in a variety of ways in an ongoing fashion. We also find that regardless of mode being a democrat increases war engagement by 8% points. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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