Sign in

Olesya Vartanyan

@olesyavart.bsky.social
1.7K followers 336 following 242 posts

Conflicts and security issues in the South Caucasus. Former senior analyst at Crisis Group and journalist at the New York Times & Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. King's College London/War Studies alumna. Contact me at olesya.vartanyan@gmail.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
The Moscow Times @themoscowtimes.com · 08/07/2026
Opinion: No amount of administrative reform by the Kremlin's envoys can resolve the contradiction that Moscow created when it recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia's independence, writes @olesyavart.bsky.social.
themoscowtimes.com
With Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia Holds a Poisoned Chalice - The Moscow Times
Opinion | As Russian influence across the South Caucasus continues to erode, one of the Kremlin’s most senior officials, Sergei Kiriyenko, has been tasked with strengthening Moscow's oversight of the ...
0103
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Turkey recap @turkeyrecap.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Following the re-election of PM Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia is set to focus on regional integration. Olesya Vartanyan (@olesyavart.bsky.social) breaks down the interplay between the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal and Armenia-Turkey normalization efforts. Full podcast: www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdKA...
053
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
My friend Tamara Mearakishvili is behind bars in South Ossetia. Local authorities have accused her of espionage, which could keep her in prison for over a decade. Tamara is absolutely innocent, and the charges appear driven by a personal vendetta of the local de facto leadership.
1133
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
1/ How Statelets Die? I look at this question through the story of Nagorno-Karabakh - once one of the most “successful” de facto entities in the post-Soviet space, and today something no one even wants to remember. Link here: defactostates.ut.ee/how-statelet...
defactostates.ut.ee
How Statelets Die: Lessons from Nagorno-Karabakh – De facto states research unit
252
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
The EU will discuss suspending visa-free travel for Georgian citizens by the end of this year, according to the results of today’s EU Foreign Council meeting. rb.gy/bd7esb
051
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 04/10/2025
Georgians are still showing they’re able and willing to protest. Even as the regime jails dozens and imposes huge fines just for appearing in the street. #GeorgiaProtests
1102
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 15/09/2025
This week in the newsletter: @nateschenkkan.bsky.social on assassinations, abductions and other forms of transnational repression thehundred.substack.com/p/how-dictat...
thehundred.substack.com
How Dictators Hunt Enemies Abroad
#92: With Nate Schenkkan
092
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
1/ In my new commentary for @ceip-politika.bsky.social I look at what has and hasn’t happened in the month since the historic Armenia-Azerbaijan summit at the White House. Key takeaway - much is still unresolved: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras... 🧵
154
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
1/ In my new commentary for @ceip-politika.bsky.social I look at what has and hasn’t happened in the month since the historic Armenia-Azerbaijan summit at the White House. Key takeaway - much is still unresolved: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras... 🧵
154
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
"gli accordi di pace diventano ostaggi dei mutamenti geopolitici e rischiano di degenerare in un preludio a nuovi conflitti, sfollamenti di massa e guerre prolungate." Ora anche in italiano su @balcanicaucaso.org l'importante contributo di @olesyavart.bsky.social
011
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
EVN Report @evnreport.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
Washington’s signing ceremony holds the promise of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But the real work—steady, patient and far from the cameras—is only beginning, writes @olesyavart.bsky.social.
evnreport.com
Beyond the Ceremony: The Real Test for Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace
This column explores the key issues shaping life in the South Caucasus, focusing on how the divergent paths of Georgia,
021
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Sonja Schiffers @sonjaschiffers.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
Great thread on the significance of and challenges ahead of of today's Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting in D.C. ⬇️
072
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Batumelebi&Netgazeti @netgazeti.org · 05/08/2025
🗣️“The activation of the U.S. is particularly important for Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and, more broadly, for the South Caucasus,” says Olesya Vartanyan, an analyst on South Caucasus affairs, aboutWashington’s initiative to improve relations between Baku and Yerevan. #SouthCaucasus #Caucasus
batumelebi.netgazeti.ge
"U.S. Involvement in Baku-Yerevan Talks Is Good News for the South Caucasus" — Olesya Vartanyan - Batumelebi
Stories from the South Caucasus •
063
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
1/ If you’re enjoying your summer, Donald Trump is about to interrupt it - possibly with significant news. He’s expected to host the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the Oval Office this week. The goal: a handshake after 30+ years of conflict. But much remains uncertain. 🧵 📷 by AFP
1196
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 19/07/2025
Have a listen to this moving story of an Armenian family finding their old home and relatives in Turkey - and building bonds with a community later hit by the 2023 earthquake. Try not to tear up. podcasts.apple.com/md/podcast/d...
podcasts.apple.com
Daughter of the crying man
Podcast Episode · Country of Dust · 17/07/2025 · 42m
121
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Armenia's Pashinyan is in Brussels shortly after the public announcement about the New Partnership Agenda - it is expected to take relations and cooperation with the European Union to a completely new level, hopefully paving the way for the future formalization of closer ties.
031
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Armenia is intensifying its diplomatic outreach to Türkiye, betting that improved ties could either unlock a peace deal with Azerbaijan or at least help prevent military flare-up along its borders, analyzes Olesya Vartanyan: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
Why Armenia Is Seeking to Normalize Relations With Turkiye
Armenia is intensifying its diplomatic outreach to Türkiye, betting that improved ties could either unlock a peace deal with Azerbaijan or at least help prevent another military flare-up along its ten...
011
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
1/ Trump seems to be aiming for a Nobel Prize with his latest proposals to resolve one of the crucial unresolved issue in Armenia–Azerbaijan talks. At the center: opening transit corridors to boost the Middle Corridor linking Asia with Europe via the South Caucasus. 🧵
353
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/%... This is a very useful survey (in Russian) of where things stand in Armenia, with the always excellent @olesyavart.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com
Власти Армении арестовали нескольких оппозиционеров. Их обвиняют в подготовке переворота, сами они называют аресты репрессиями. А что н
Podcast Episode · Что случилось · 06/30/2025 · 45m
131
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
I was in Kyiv recently when the city came under heavy missile and drone attack. It brought flashbacks from the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh and the 2008 war in Georgia. Here’s my reflection on what an unfair peace deal in Ukraine could mean for the South Caucasus.
153
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
EVN Report @evnreport.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
More than three years into Russia’s invasion, Kyiv has adapted to the rhythms of war. Resistance has faded into daily routine - yet the consequences of this conflict still ripple far beyond Ukraine, including into the South Caucasus. @olesyavart.bsky.social
evnreport.com
Kyiv Doesn’t Sleep: A Dispatch From a City at War
This column explores the key issues shaping life in the South Caucasus, focusing on how the divergent paths of Georgia,
021
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Nate Schenkkan @nateschenkkan.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
Useful interview (in Russian) with @olesyavart.bsky.social on Pashinyan’s arrests in Armenia and the overall very messy situation: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/%...
podcasts.apple.com
Власти Армении арестовали нескольких оппозиционеров. Их обвиняют в подготовке переворота, сами они называют аресты репрессиями. А что н
Podcast Episode · Что случилось · 06/30/2025 · 45m
041
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Yana Gorokhovskaia @ygorokho.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
Looking forward to reading this regularly.
042
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
1/ Timely criticism from 10+ Armenian NGOs focused on women’s rights and human rights, aimed at PM Pashinyan — who has been storming Facebook since early morning with posts targeting church clerics and their personal lives. shorturl.at/swpxE
110
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Kaja Kallas @kajakallas.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
Welcome home, Théo Clerc. His release from Azerbaijan shows what quiet diplomacy and respectful engagement can achieve. I am relieved his detention is over and I’ll continue doing my part to support our citizens abroad.
525418
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
1/ Armenia reports some progress in integrating Nagorno-Karabakh refugees - but the process is slow and weighed down by long-term challenges. Passport applications have nearly doubled since last September: from 4,400 to 8,300. 🧵
142
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
EVN Report @evnreport.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
“You can’t force love,” Lavrov warned in Yerevan. But that may be exactly what Moscow is trying to do as it struggles to hold the South Caucasus in its orbit. Full analysis by @olesyavart.bsky.social
evnreport.com
“You Can’t Force Love”: Moscow’s Courting of the South Caucasus Stalls
This column explores the key issues shaping life in the South Caucasus, focusing on how the divergent paths of Georgia,
021
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
Fascinating story of cooperation with the Armenian community in Georgia's Javakheti to support the breeding of Arctic Velvet Scoters en route to Scandinavia - plus some stunning photos of the local landscapes. If you haven’t visited yet, consider going this summer! www.worldbank.org/en/news/feat...
worldbank.org
Nature Pays Off: Conserving Georgia’s Lakes Grows Local Economies
Conserving lake ecosystems in Georgia’s Samtskhe-Javakheti region is protecting endangered species and boosting eco-tourism in rural communities.
030
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
EVN Report @evnreport.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
Read the full article by @olesyavart.bsky.social
evnreport.com
Armenia’s Quiet Defiance
This column explores the key issues shaping life in the South Caucasus, focusing on how the divergent paths of Georgia,
062
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
EVN Report @evnreport.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
These days the air in the South Caucasus feels thicker than it has in decades with the slow suffocation of freedoms once taken for granted after the Soviet collapse. I
121
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Great to see my piece on Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks for @ceip-politika.bsky.social picked up by @moscowtimes.bsky.social
030
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Here’s the English version of my article on why the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty must be finalized ASAP before the window of opportunity closes: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
The Window for an Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal Is Closing
Even though Yerevan and Baku have formally reached an agreement to end their thirty-five-year conflict, it’s unclear whether the document will actually be signed.
092
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
bakuresearchinstitute.org/en/speaking-... Why the imprisonment of young Azerbaijani scholar Bahruz Samadov matters for both academic freedom and peace - our op-ed for the Baku Research Institute.
bakuresearchinstitute.org
Speaking Peace to Power - Baku Research Institute
Academic freedom is crucial to peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan “Long live the brotherhood of the Azerbaijani and Armenian nations!” This is not something you hear very often in Azerbaijan, […]
01411
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
My beloved Civil.Ge asked me to share thoughts on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal and its impact on Georgia, which I gladly did. It covers economic, political aspects & lessons for Georgia’s own conflicts. Take a look: civil.ge/archives/671...
civil.ge
Will Peace Break out Between Armenia and Azerbaijan? - Civil Georgia
A stable peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan could make the South Caucasus significantly more secur
020
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
The most important event that never happened: the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty, which was supposed to boost Armenia-Turkey normalization. I break down why it remains unsigned & why this is a huge missed opportunity for the entire region. English version soon. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
Цена промедления. Почему у Армении и Азербайджана не получается подписать мир
Если Баку и Ереван не смогут быстро найти общий язык, это может стать одной из самых больших упущенных возможностей не только в истории их 35-летнего конфликта, но и, возможно, для будущего всего реги...
2113
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
My piece on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement -- a big step forward but a long way to go carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Major Step Forward
After decades of conflict, the two moved closer to a peace deal. But outside support, especially from Ankara, is critical to maintain momentum.
1147
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
EVN Report @evnreport.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
Baku & Yerevan have declared their negotiations over, marking a diplomatic milestone. With the signing and implementation of a peace deal uncertain, this ambiguous interim phase demands a careful assessment of the risks & challenges ahead. By @olesyavart.bsky.social
evnreport.com
An Unfinished Peace: Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Fragile Path Forward
This column explores the key issues shaping life in the South Caucasus, focusing on how the divergent paths of Georgia,
021
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization talks: Today saw a potentially significant development in the reports that the text of a long-awaited normalization agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been completed, according to an announcement by the Azerbaijani MFA, also confirmed by the Armenian MFA.
1133
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
If signing is off the table for the moment, can Armenia and Azerbaijan at least initial/parapher the document to prevent any further changes?
010
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Statements by Armenia & Azerbaijan: Yerevan wants to discuss where to sign the peace deal, while Baku insists on constitutional changes first. No shift in Azerbaijan’s stance vs. more Armenian concessions. Key question: Is today’s announcement enough to move the Armenia-Turkey process forward?
072
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
The announcement comes amid media speculation of escalation and delays in Armenia-Turkey rapprochement, stalled over 2 years without a Baku-Yerevan peace deal—all as U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine reshape Europe’s security. In short: Moscow won’t be happy. oc-media.org/armenia-and-...
oc-media.org
Armenia and Azerbaijan agree to peace deal
The two countries have reportedly agreed on the terms of a historic peace deal, after over three decades of bitter conflict.
071
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union | Global Dialogue @boelleu.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
🟢 The Kremlin denies sovereignty and territorial integrity not only to Ukraine but also to Georgia. But unlike Ukraine, the ruling Georgian Dream party follows the Russian playbook and uses the Russian threat to maintain authoritarian power, writes @sonjaschiffers.bsky.social 👇
eu.boell.org
Georgia and Russia: “On the same train” with the occupant | Heinrich Böll Stiftung | Brussels office - European Union
The Kremlin denies sovereignty and territorial integrity not only to Ukraine but also to Georgia. But unlike Ukraine, the ruling Georgian Dream party follows the Russian playbook and uses the Russian ...
0127
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Tinatin Akhvlediani @tinatinakhvlediani.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Read my latest piece on #Georgia, as part of @ceps.eu #IWD commentary 👇
044
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
The past weeks in Abkhazia were an anomaly—but could soon be the norm as Moscow tightens its grip. In my latest for the IPG Journal, I examine what this means for Abkhazia’s ties with the few Western officials still engaged and those in Tbilisi watching closely. www.ipg-journal.io/ru/regiony/e...
ipg-journal.io
Аномалии выборов
Результат выборов в Абхазии предопределило влияние из Москвы. Но готов ли регион беспрекословно подчиняться диктату Кремля?
060
Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan
Sébastien Gobert @sebagobert.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
doit obtenir tous les avantages qu’elle demande. 6// A lire, l'excellent texte de @olesyavart.bsky.social pour @CarnegieEndow : carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
Moscow Has Run Out of Patience in Abkhazia
Rather than negotiating endlessly with Abkhazia’s restless elites, the Kremlin is trying to install a leader who will not just follow orders, but convince the population that resistance is futile. But...
051
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
1/ Election drama in Abkhazia is over. Moscow-backed candidate Badra Gunba won with a majority. His rival, Adgur Ardzinba, hasn’t conceded, but few seem to care - official congratulations already came from Putin. 🧵 jam-news.net/amid-scandal...
133
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 01/03/2025
@globsec.bsky.social is now accepting applications for its Young Leaders program! I was part of it 10 years ago, and many from my cohort have become lifelong friends. If you're interested in security & policy, I highly recommend applying: forum2025.globsec.org/gylf/?utm_ca...
033
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Let’s hope he never discovers the South Caucasus and its conflicts.
2231
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Tomorrow is the 2nd round of Abkhazia’s leadership election. When I wrote this for @ceip-politika.bsky.social, I expected tensions - but not this fast. Pressure on local Armenians & Russian threats of prosecution in case of unrest signal more trouble ahead unless political rivals strike a deal.
020
Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
EU Parliament members visited Armenia this week for a partnership committee meeting with Armenian colleagues. Their joint statement strongly backed Armenia’s position on its conflict with Azerbaijan & the Nagorno-Karabakh situation. Read it here: www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/2933...
130