Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 27/09/2026#NegativeControls #Causalinference #Causalsky #Episky academic.oup.com/ije/article/...academic.oup.comNegative controls and how to use them: a guidance paperAbstract. Negative controls have gained traction as a useful tool for causal research to address confounding and bias. However, general guidance on how to 031
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 12/08/2026www.nature.com/articles/d41... #researchfunding #grants #fairnessnature.comWhen the best decision is no decision: the rise of randomization in grant fundingIf reviewers can’t reliably tell the difference between top grant proposals, why should they pretend they can? A new wave of funders is turning to lotteries to break the tie. 020
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhDArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · 15/07/2026arXiv📈🤖 Proximal Identification and Estimation in Front-Door Causal Structures with Unobserved Confounding of the Mediator By Guo, Wen, Shpitser 031
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhDMayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @mayor.nyc.gov · 04/07/2026 468280876558
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 14/06/2026Overall, this paper aims to equip researchers with both the conceptual understanding and practical tools necessary to apply machine learning-based #HTE analysis in epidemiological research, including both randomized controlled trials and observational studies. 000
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 14/06/2026After an application using a national sample of US older adults, we discuss some critical and practical considerations of HTE analysis with highly granular CATE. Finally, we discuss the assessment of HTE, including the scale and reference point, as well as the interpretation of CATE. 100
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 14/06/2026Here, we provide a comprehensive and practical guide as well as statistical codes for researchers to implement these models effectively. Then, we describe a methodological overview of popular #machinelearning algorithms for #CATE estimation and how to calibrate their model fit. 140
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 14/06/2026#Machinelearning-based #heterogeneoustreatmenteffect (HTE) estimation and discovery have recently received substantial attention. Meta-learner frameworks and causal forests have been widely used in estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). academic.oup.com/ije/article/...academic.oup.comEstimating and discovering heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning in epidemiological studies: a practical guideAbstract. Machine learning-based heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation and discovery have recently received substantial attention in the healthca 120
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhDNBA @nba.com · 14/06/2026FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 53 YEARS, THE KNICKS ARE NBA CHAMPIONS 🏆 New York defeats San Antonio 4-1 in the NBA Finals, capturing their third championship in franchise history! 8951131213
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 14/06/2026The dishonest politics of #globalhealth - The Lancet www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...thelancet.comOffline: The dishonest politics of global healthThe latest outbreak of Ebola in DR Congo loomed over proceedings at the World Health Assembly (WHA) last week. The first case: April 24. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC): May... 000
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 13/06/2026The Honest Case for the #Humanities open.substack.com/pub/napinill...open.substack.comThe Honest Case for the HumanitiesOr: Why I’m Tired of My Colleagues Making Arguments That Only Work on Us 011
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhDChantzy @chantzy.bsky.social · 30/05/2026A study of 750 Ebola survivors in the DRC found close to 90% had long-term symptoms despite receiving treatments such as monoclonal antibodies. Symptoms persisted for >3 years The public health response always seems to focus on death as the only bad outcome academic.oup.com/ofid/article... 814262
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 10/05/2026academic.oup.com/ije/article-... #causalinference #causalsky #episky #statsskyacademic.oup.comWhat makes a study design quasi-experimental? The case of difference-in-differencesStudy designs classified as quasi- or natural experiments are typically accorded more face validity than observational study designs more broadly. Differen 051
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhDCrystal Fleming is on sabbatical @alwaystheself.bsky.social · 11/04/2026A perfect splashdown! Thank God! #ArtemisII 07712
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhDJason Moore @moorejh.bsky.social · 26/03/2026Privacy & Security Throughout the Health Data Life Cycle: From Primary Care to Research Networks www.annualreviews.org/content/jour... #healthcare #bioinformatics #data #privacy #securityannualreviews.orgPrivacy and Security Throughout the Health Data Life Cycle: From Primary Care to Research NetworksHealth data are increasingly generated, shared, and analyzed across an ever-growing collection of settings. While these developments enable new forms of biomedical discovery and clinical decision supp... 031
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 23/03/2026www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... #causalsky #causalinference #StatsSkytandfonline.comTheory for Identification and Inference with Synthetic Controls: A Proximal Causal Inference FrameworkSynthetic control (SC) methods are commonly used to estimate the treatment effect on a single treated unit in panel data settings. An SC is a weighted average of control units built to match the tr... 010
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 23/03/2026www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... #CausalSky #causalinference #statsskytandfonline.comIndividualized Dynamic Mediation Analysis Using Latent Factor ModelsMediation analysis plays a crucial role in causal inference as it can investigate the pathways through which treatment influences outcome. Most existing mediation analysis assumes that mediation ef... 010
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhDOnyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 06/02/2026#EpiSky #CausalSky #PublicHealth Summer School with me (teaching Applied Sensitivity Analysis) and others? Check this out: sse.sph.umich.edu/courses/sse.sph.umich.eduCourses 193
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 15/03/2026academic.oup.com/ije/article/... #CleanerTransportation #EpiSky #PublicHealth #Perinatalacademic.oup.comTracking the perinatal health benefits of cleaner transportationIn the January 2025 issue of International Journal of Epidemiology, Hystad and colleagues [1] contribute new evidence on the perinatal health benefits of r 032
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 15/03/2026academic.oup.com/ije/article/... #EpiSky #COVID19 #CausalSky #causalinferenceacademic.oup.comThe effect of SARS-CoV-2 testing on healthcare-seeking behaviour at primary care levelAbstractBackground. Diagnostic self-testing for SARS-CoV-2 may lead to selection bias in test-negative case–control designs (TND) for COVID-19 vaccine effe 024
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 02/03/2026So does this one: rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1... #causalsky #causalinferencerss.onlinelibrary.wiley.comRoyal Statistical Society PublicationsSummary. Conventional analytic results do not reflect any source of uncertainty other than random error, and as a result readers must rely on informal judgments regarding the effect of possible bias... 120
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 02/03/2026This paper on Bayesian perspectives for bias analysis comes to mind: academic.oup.com/ije/article-...academic.oup.comBayesian perspectives for epidemiologic research: III. Bias analysis via missing-data methodsAbstract. I present some extensions of Bayesian methods to situations in which biases are of concern. First, a basic misclassification problem is illustrat 120
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhDPeter Tennant @pwgtennant.bsky.social · 25/02/2026This recent RCT of an "AI stethoscope" claims the technology "shows promise" for diagnosing cardiovascular conditions. It does not. It is a textbook example of the risks of conducting unprincipled 'per protocol analyses'. Once again, peer review at a major medical journal has failed. 🧵 1/ 8435185
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 26/02/2026You should do a letter to the editor about this! If they refuse to accept it, try another journal. 020
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhDLaura Dee @lauradee.bsky.social · 24/02/2026Excited to share our new paper in @natcomms.nature.com We synthesize causal discovery & inference approaches across traditions (regression adjustment, quasi-expts, SEMs, Granger causality, convergent cross-mapping, and more) into a unified workflow for ecologists. www.nature.com/articles/s41...nature.comBest practices for moving from correlation to causation in ecological research - Nature CommunicationsDifferent scientific traditions offer seemingly disparate approaches to inferring causal relationships in ecological systems. This Perspective unifies the causal assumptions and methods from... 316564
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 21/02/2026Enjoying this powerful book #EverythingIsTB by @johngreensbluesky.bsky.social My birthday 🎁 from someone special who remembered my days as a physician in Africa Fight #Tuberculosis #PublicHealth matters! 251
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 17/02/2026Ten years of research within the unique DNBC Puberty Cohort has identified several prenatal and childhood biological and psychosocial factors associated with earlier puberty #EpiSky #Lifecourse #PublicHealth academic.oup.com/ije/article/...academic.oup.comTen-year findings from the Puberty Cohort: a sub-cohort within the Danish National Birth CohortAbstractBackground. The age of puberty is declining. Earlier puberty has major implications due to associations with later physiological and psychiatric mo 060
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhDArrianna Marie Planey, PhD MA @arrianna-planey.bsky.social · 11/02/2026"“By demanding that economics education should be more pluralist, more ethically conscientious, more historically aware, and more oriented towards the real world, Rethinking Economics has exposed the staggering deficiency in the way economists are educated..." www.theguardian.com/environment/...theguardian.comRethinking Economics, the movement changing how the subject is taughtBorn of student disquiet after the 2008 crash, the group says it is reshaping economists’ education 0256
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 07/02/2026Worth expanding to a multi-perspective view from employers, graduates, epi program directors & faculty, etc. We would want to hear from epidemiologists in government, industry, etc. 121
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 06/02/2026#EpiSky #CausalSky #PublicHealth Summer School with me (teaching Applied Sensitivity Analysis) and others? Check this out: sse.sph.umich.edu/courses/sse.sph.umich.eduCourses 193
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhDMar Hicks @histoftech.bsky.social · 06/02/2026No joke: I got angry hate mail today for writing an obituary of a Black woman scientist—because the person felt she did didn’t deserve the recognition. Which just makes me want to share it again: www.nature.com/articles/d41...nature.comGladys Mae West obituary: mathematician who pioneered GPS technologyShe made key contributions to US cold-war science despite facing huge barriers as a Black woman. 13674818619706
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhDBK. Titanji @boghuma.bsky.social · 05/02/2026"Ethical research requires that participant safety remains central, not subordinate to hypothesis testing....Vulnerability should never be seen as an opportunity to advance research at the expense of those it claims to serve." @natureportfolio.nature.com www.nature.com/articles/d41...nature.comWhose ethics govern global health research?Ethical research must not exploit scarcity as an experimental variable. 58626
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 03/02/2026😂 I‘m sure I’m just as old/young as Richard. Just happened to become an MD before doing a PhD. 010
Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 02/02/2026I was also taught MLM by Goldstein and later Joop Hox 020