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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD

@oacarah.bsky.social
4.4K followers 741 following 371 posts

Professor Practical Causal Inference Lab Co-Director **Views are mine** #Epidemiology #EpiSky #CausalInference #CausalSky #PublicHealth #StatsSky #Stats #Medsky

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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
#NegativeControls #Causalinference #Causalsky #Episky academic.oup.com/ije/article/...
academic.oup.com
Negative controls and how to use them: a guidance paper
Abstract. Negative controls have gained traction as a useful tool for causal research to address confounding and bias. However, general guidance on how to
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
💔
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Rest in peace, Dolly 🕊️
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
www.nature.com/articles/d41... #researchfunding #grants #fairness
nature.com
When the best decision is no decision: the rise of randomization in grant funding
If reviewers can’t reliably tell the difference between top grant proposals, why should they pretend they can? A new wave of funders is turning to lotteries to break the tie.
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
This game is done! #FRAENG #WorldCup26
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ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
arXiv📈🤖 Proximal Identification and Estimation in Front-Door Causal Structures with Unobserved Confounding of the Mediator By Guo, Wen, Shpitser
Unobserved confounding is a fundamental obstacle in causal inference problems. In the graphical modeling literature, a general theory has been developed that allows identification in the presence of hidden variables, with some limitations. In particular, Pearl's celebrated front-door criterion allows nonparametric identification in the presence of unobserved common causes of the treatment and the outcome, however it requires the presence of an unconfounded variable that mediates all causal influence from the treatment to the outcome. This stringent requirement limits the applicability of the front-door criterion. We propose proximal generalizations of the front-door criterion, allowing both arbitrary treatment/outcome confounding, and unobserved confounders of the mediator, provided informative proxies for the latter type of confounders are observed. In addition to deriving three new identification strategies in this setting, we provide plug-in and influence function-based estimation strategies for the resulting functionals, and evaluate their performance through simulations.
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Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @mayor.nyc.gov · 04/07/2026
Today marks 250 years since a small group of newspaper editors, farmers, and soldiers signed a document declaring our nation's independence — a truth that feels self-evident now but was revolutionary then.
What a privilege us Americans have, to live in a nation that every one of its inhabitants can shape. What an honor us New Yorkers have, to look out over our city's waters from the shores where so many Americans bravely entered their country for the first time.
Today and all days, let us remember that patriotism is not pretending our nation is without flaws. Patriotism is every act of righteous dissent — because loving our country means fighting for the best version of it.
Happy Fourth of July, New York City.
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Happy Father’s Day!
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
#USA 🇺🇸 #WorldCup
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Overall, this paper aims to equip researchers with both the conceptual understanding and practical tools necessary to apply machine learning-based #HTE analysis in epidemiological research, including both randomized controlled trials and observational studies.
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
After an application using a national sample of US older adults, we discuss some critical and practical considerations of HTE analysis with highly granular CATE. Finally, we discuss the assessment of HTE, including the scale and reference point, as well as the interpretation of CATE.
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Here, we provide a comprehensive and practical guide as well as statistical codes for researchers to implement these models effectively. Then, we describe a methodological overview of popular #machinelearning algorithms for #CATE estimation and how to calibrate their model fit.
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
#Machinelearning-based #heterogeneoustreatmenteffect (HTE) estimation and discovery have recently received substantial attention. Meta-learner frameworks and causal forests have been widely used in estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). academic.oup.com/ije/article/...
academic.oup.com
Estimating and discovering heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning in epidemiological studies: a practical guide
Abstract. Machine learning-based heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation and discovery have recently received substantial attention in the healthca
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NBA @nba.com · 14/06/2026
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 53 YEARS, THE KNICKS ARE NBA CHAMPIONS 🏆 New York defeats San Antonio 4-1 in the NBA Finals, capturing their third championship in franchise history!
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
#Knicksin5 🏆🏆🏆🏆
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
The dishonest politics of #globalhealth - The Lancet www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Offline: The dishonest politics of global health
The latest outbreak of Ebola in DR Congo loomed over proceedings at the World Health Assembly (WHA) last week. The first case: April 24. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC): May...
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
The Honest Case for the #Humanities open.substack.com/pub/napinill...
open.substack.com
The Honest Case for the Humanities
Or: Why I’m Tired of My Colleagues Making Arguments That Only Work on Us
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
🎉🎊🎉🎊
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Chantzy @chantzy.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
A study of 750 Ebola survivors in the DRC found close to 90% had long-term symptoms despite receiving treatments such as monoclonal antibodies. Symptoms persisted for >3 years The public health response always seems to focus on death as the only bad outcome academic.oup.com/ofid/article...
Screenshot of Aug 2025 prospective cohort study paper published in Open Forum Infectious Diseases titled "Long term sequelae in Ebola Virus Survivors Receiving Anti-Ebola Virus Therapies in the Democratic Republic of Congo"
By Dilu-Keti et al
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
‼️👇🏾‼️
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
academic.oup.com/ije/article-... #causalinference #causalsky #episky #statssky
academic.oup.com
What makes a study design quasi-experimental? The case of difference-in-differences
Study designs classified as quasi- or natural experiments are typically accorded more face validity than observational study designs more broadly. Differen
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Congrats 🎉
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Crystal Fleming is on sabbatical @alwaystheself.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
A perfect splashdown! Thank God! #ArtemisII
Splashdown! Theee parachutes
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
😂😬
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Jason Moore @moorejh.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Privacy & Security Throughout the Health Data Life Cycle: From Primary Care to Research Networks www.annualreviews.org/content/jour... #healthcare #bioinformatics #data #privacy #security
annualreviews.org
Privacy and Security Throughout the Health Data Life Cycle: From Primary Care to Research Networks
Health data are increasingly generated, shared, and analyzed across an ever-growing collection of settings. While these developments enable new forms of biomedical discovery and clinical decision supp...
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... #causalsky #causalinference #StatsSky
tandfonline.com
Theory for Identification and Inference with Synthetic Controls: A Proximal Causal Inference Framework
Synthetic control (SC) methods are commonly used to estimate the treatment effect on a single treated unit in panel data settings. An SC is a weighted average of control units built to match the tr...
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... #CausalSky #causalinference #statssky
tandfonline.com
Individualized Dynamic Mediation Analysis Using Latent Factor Models
Mediation analysis plays a crucial role in causal inference as it can investigate the pathways through which treatment influences outcome. Most existing mediation analysis assumes that mediation ef...
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
#EpiSky #CausalSky #PublicHealth Summer School with me (teaching Applied Sensitivity Analysis) and others? Check this out: sse.sph.umich.edu/courses/
sse.sph.umich.edu
Courses
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
I’m tired of settling for less
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
academic.oup.com/ije/article/... #CleanerTransportation #EpiSky #PublicHealth #Perinatal
academic.oup.com
Tracking the perinatal health benefits of cleaner transportation
In the January 2025 issue of International Journal of Epidemiology, Hystad and colleagues [1] contribute new evidence on the perinatal health benefits of r
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
academic.oup.com/ije/article/... #EpiSky #COVID19 #CausalSky #causalinference
academic.oup.com
The effect of SARS-CoV-2 testing on healthcare-seeking behaviour at primary care level
AbstractBackground. Diagnostic self-testing for SARS-CoV-2 may lead to selection bias in test-negative case–control designs (TND) for COVID-19 vaccine effe
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
‼️‼️
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
So does this one: rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1... #causalsky #causalinference
rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Royal Statistical Society Publications
Summary. Conventional analytic results do not reflect any source of uncertainty other than random error, and as a result readers must rely on informal judgments regarding the effect of possible bias...
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
This paper on Bayesian perspectives for bias analysis comes to mind: academic.oup.com/ije/article-...
academic.oup.com
Bayesian perspectives for epidemiologic research: III. Bias analysis via missing-data methods
Abstract. I present some extensions of Bayesian methods to situations in which biases are of concern. First, a basic misclassification problem is illustrat
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Peter Tennant @pwgtennant.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
This recent RCT of an "AI stethoscope" claims the technology "shows promise" for diagnosing cardiovascular conditions. It does not. It is a textbook example of the risks of conducting unprincipled 'per protocol analyses'. Once again, peer review at a major medical journal has failed. 🧵 1/
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
You should do a letter to the editor about this! If they refuse to accept it, try another journal.
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Laura Dee @lauradee.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Excited to share our new paper in @natcomms.nature.com We synthesize causal discovery & inference approaches across traditions (regression adjustment, quasi-expts, SEMs, Granger causality, convergent cross-mapping, and more) into a unified workflow for ecologists. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Best practices for moving from correlation to causation in ecological research - Nature Communications
Different scientific traditions offer seemingly disparate approaches to inferring causal relationships in ecological systems. This Perspective unifies the causal assumptions and methods from...
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
I can
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
Enjoying this powerful book #EverythingIsTB by @johngreensbluesky.bsky.social My birthday 🎁 from someone special who remembered my days as a physician in Africa Fight #Tuberculosis #PublicHealth matters!
Yellow, green and red colored book cover of John Green’s EVERYTHING IS TUBERCULOSIS: THE HISTORY AND PERSISTENCE OF OUR DEADLIEST INFECTION
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
😂
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Ten years of research within the unique DNBC Puberty Cohort has identified several prenatal and childhood biological and psychosocial factors associated with earlier puberty #EpiSky #Lifecourse #PublicHealth academic.oup.com/ije/article/...
academic.oup.com
Ten-year findings from the Puberty Cohort: a sub-cohort within the Danish National Birth Cohort
AbstractBackground. The age of puberty is declining. Earlier puberty has major implications due to associations with later physiological and psychiatric mo
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Arrianna Marie Planey, PhD MA @arrianna-planey.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
"“By demanding that economics education should be more pluralist, more ethically conscientious, more historically aware, and more oriented towards the real world, Rethinking Economics has exposed the staggering deficiency in the way economists are educated..." www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Rethinking Economics, the movement changing how the subject is taught
Born of student disquiet after the 2008 crash, the group says it is reshaping economists’ education
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Worth expanding to a multi-perspective view from employers, graduates, epi program directors & faculty, etc. We would want to hear from epidemiologists in government, industry, etc.
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Summer Session in Epidemiology at University of Michigan. Apply online at SUMMEREPI.ORG
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
#EpiSky #CausalSky #PublicHealth Summer School with me (teaching Applied Sensitivity Analysis) and others? Check this out: sse.sph.umich.edu/courses/
sse.sph.umich.edu
Courses
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Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
Mar Hicks @histoftech.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
No joke: I got angry hate mail today for writing an obituary of a Black woman scientist—because the person felt she did didn’t deserve the recognition. Which just makes me want to share it again: www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Gladys Mae West obituary: mathematician who pioneered GPS technology
She made key contributions to US cold-war science despite facing huge barriers as a Black woman.
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BK. Titanji @boghuma.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
"Ethical research requires that participant safety remains central, not subordinate to hypothesis testing....Vulnerability should never be seen as an opportunity to advance research at the expense of those it claims to serve." @natureportfolio.nature.com www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Whose ethics govern global health research?
Ethical research must not exploit scarcity as an experimental variable.
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
😂 I‘m sure I’m just as old/young as Richard. Just happened to become an MD before doing a PhD.
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Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD @oacarah.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
I was also taught MLM by Goldstein and later Joop Hox
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