iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 13/10/2026

Fondly remembering the days where I was consuming handcrafted artisanal human tokens which didn't get to the point quickly because there were no better alternatives.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 25/07/2026

Salaries for Lightcone people for 2025, from their recently released public form 990. In particular notice Habryka at $150K (increases my respect for him, because he is paying a personal cost to produce a public good: compare with other salaries in his org.)

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 25/07/2026

So what's the appeal of bsky for you? Idgi much

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 25/07/2026

I am very cool with you making an RSS feed crossposter!!

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 24/07/2026

Changing the DNS in my domain I guess, will try to fix it

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 19/07/2026

Actually I find it pretty heartwarming that the next generation of EA-adjacent entrepreneurs are not repeating my mistakes, and nd are doing for profits rather than non profits

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 09/05/2026

Opus knows roughly who I am

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 20/04/2026

And then when I think about larger cyberattacks, e.g., destroying 10B USD or more, I have to make some judgment call

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 20/04/2026

so there is some precendent for changes in tech to enable a wave of larger cyberattacks

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 20/04/2026

A forecaster friend brings up that there were three fairly big ones in the early 2000s, fairly close to each other, <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klez>, <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mydoom>, <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sobig>

en.wikipedia.org

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klez

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 20/04/2026

Or because some of the impact is difficult to understand in economic terms (e.g., theft of intellectual property, attacks between nations).

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 20/04/2026

Though a problem with these types of lists is that they normally underestimate the number of events, because exhaustive compilation is hard, because some cyberattacks will not be found out about or mentioned in English-speaking press, ...

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 20/04/2026

I've extracted the ones with over 1B in damages here: <https://gist.github.com/NunoSempere/d9e5c88d6fa8f88fe625c68997f84432>, for a base rate of 5 over the last 20 years, so a yearly probability of ~25%

gist.github.com

cyberattacks.txt · GitHub

GitHub Gist: instantly share code, notes, and snippets.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 20/04/2026

This is important because if we have the underlying frequency, we can think about how AI changes and augments bad actors, in a way that is a bit more anchored.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 20/04/2026

Looking at the historical frequency of cyberattacks /thread

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 09/04/2026

very glad I'm not exposed to it

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 09/04/2026

Doing a review of a friend's muted accounts to get his reverse worldview and wow is there a lot of crap on this website

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 06/04/2026

power generates demand for your pettiest impulses to be appealed to, funny to observe that playing out in real time.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 27/03/2026

I wonder if Raytheon could offer Musk 50B to be CEO for a year? the prime contractors seem like they aren't doing too well producing weapons for the Iran war.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 23/03/2026

So selfishness arises as an instrumental goal from altruism, from the need to acquire more ressources. Hence SBF.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 23/03/2026

The balance between the two is difficult to compute in practice, but leans towards self-reinforcement, towards asymptotic ponzi schemes if you math it out.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 23/03/2026

Conversely if you just have the self-reinforcing loop then you just have a Disneyland without children, just evil. An intelligence explosion of worthless computation

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 23/03/2026

breaks my heart when you have a system aimed towards human flourishing that just exhausts itself, spends down its resources. Compare www.founderspledge.com/programs/pat… with www.givedirectly.org

founderspledge.com

Patient Philanthropy Fund

https://www.founderspledge.com/programs/patient-philanthropy-fund

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 23/03/2026

imho EAs don't pay enough attention to the self-reinforcing part, non-EAs don't pay enough attention to the human flourishing part

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 23/03/2026

That's the pithiest wording of my values, what I'm fighting for

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 23/03/2026

Self-reinforcing loops of human flourishing

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 23/03/2026

Sometimes I think I'm reasonably well off financially and then I talk to a Mnenonite who is employing 250 people and has 18 gas stations and I realize how true family wealth looks like.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 19/03/2026

I also just view it as really adversarial when people lie to my face, or when I perceive that they do so. The emotional trigger there is really quite strong. It is also useful in other contexts though

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 19/03/2026

Maybe because there is no direction for the feedback loop

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 19/03/2026

Something I have trouble with is people giving me a genuine no accompanied by a bullshit reason.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 14/03/2026

I've been experimenting with making some stock bets based on stuff I read on twitter; mostly it's been a wash, but good for updating that a) people don't know what they're talking about, b) shooting stuff out and selective reporting of wins is rampant

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 07/03/2026

Kinda cute that you have a nominally democratic regime but then the mechanism you use to actually coordinate people about what to do is finance.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 21/02/2026

If I was dictator of America, why *couldn't* I increase GDP 2x by 2029?

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 21/02/2026

Previously you could trust and install a random github repository, but this changes as people can create malicious repositories at scale <https://www.reddit.com/r/netsec/comments/1r66u2r/analysis_massive_active_github_malware_campaign/> :(

reddit.com

Reddit - The heart of the internet

https://www.reddit.com/r/netsec/comments/1r66u2r/analysis_massive_active_github_malware_campaign/

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Reposted by Nuño Sempere

Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 15/02/2026

Make list of fundamental human needs and invest in things which are complements to intelligence.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 15/02/2026

Make list of fundamental human needs and invest in things which are complements to intelligence.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 14/02/2026

AI foids and moids may just charismamaxx and outmog normies in the SMP

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 12/02/2026

Yep! In particular it's correlated with teh EA community or EU/US, which I feel somewhat fondly about

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 11/02/2026

The thing about shying away from harsh truths is that eventually you might get outlapped by those who don't, and the equilibrium where this doesn't happen seems fragile. This worries me.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 05/02/2026

Re: the Washington post Subscriptions of about 150 usd, 2.5M subscribers = 375M in revenues If the paper is losing 100M expenses are 475M. Cutting 1/3rd of the cost brings cost to 316M, in line with revenues

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 03/02/2026

Talked with a friend who had had worked on a really cool project last year and is now feeling less excited by his more normal one now. Interesting shade of grief.

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