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Nuño Sempere

@nunosempere.com
3K followers 33 following 253 posts

See clearly, act fast, hold myself well. Seek self-reinforcing loops, cherish allies, and play on the side of humanity.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 25/07/2026
Salaries for Lightcone people for 2025, from their recently released public form 990. In particular notice Habryka at $150K (increases my respect for him, because he is paying a personal cost to produce a public good: compare with other salaries in his org.)
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 06/07/2026
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 09/05/2026
Opus knows roughly who I am
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 30/03/2026
Welcome to Paraguay
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 16/02/2026
Global risks this week
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 03/02/2026
Example output
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 03/02/2026
Vibecoded some simulation software this morning, thought it was neat. You can see the repo here: <https://github.com/NunoSempere/who-does-what>
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 27/10/2025
Forecaster estimates of a 3rd Trump term—Trump is a funny guy
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 13/10/2025
I am extremely grateful to my American overlords for financing my intense interest in anticipating large-scale risks.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 18/08/2025
Our headline item is our changing probability estimate for a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire by October 1st before and after the summit
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 18/08/2025
Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 13/06/2025
:) docs.google.com/document/d/1...
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 22/05/2025
I'm commoditizing elite forecasting at askaforecaster.com. Ask about career changes, strategic decisions, Taiwan invasions!
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 15/05/2025
Same location as of 2023-05 for reference
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 15/05/2025
Satellite image of the Stargate project. It's huge. See a football field at the top right for reference.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 17/04/2025
ALLFED running a funding appeal to not fire half of their staff. I think they are doing good work, and they seem good for increasing resiliency during black swans (e.g., during a big solar flare)
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 16/04/2025
I asked my friend group for their relationship timelines. This allows me to construct a baserate for the reference class of {male, very but not world-shatteringly smart, generally altruistic, perhaps EA-adjacent, in their 20s or 30s, gainfully employed or studying}
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 14/04/2025
Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2025: Tariff yoyo, OpenAI slashing safety testing, Iran nuclear programme negotiations, 1K H5N1 confirmed herd infections. <https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-152025>
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 10/04/2025
XD, I like English translations of Chinese phrases.
The People's Liberation Army continuously trains and prepares for battle, consistently advancing the fight against "independence" and promoting unification without stopping. | mil.gmw.cn | 2025-04-10
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 01/04/2025
Insane "closing in" (on Taiwan) poster released by PLA
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 31/03/2025
I kinda empathize with Ethiopia wanting to invade part of Eritrea to get sea access here. www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/...
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 11/03/2025
Pretty insane China/Poland trade route through Iran to avoid Russia btw
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 10/03/2025
Twitter seems t be down! Here is a calculator for distributions I wrote the other day: github.com/NunoSempere/...
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 19/11/2024
In this age of loneliness and increases in political polarization, the solution is clear: date lefty cuties.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 13/05/2023
Here is a link to a browser that I am maintaining. github.com/NunoSempere/rosenrot-bro…
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