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Nuño Sempere

@nunosempere.com
3K followers 33 following 253 posts

See clearly, act fast, hold myself well. Seek self-reinforcing loops, cherish allies, and play on the side of humanity.

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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 13/10/2026
Fondly remembering the days where I was consuming handcrafted artisanal human tokens which didn't get to the point quickly because there were no better alternatives.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 18/08/2026
Running a second cyberattack wargame if people want to join. Hope is to unearth nonobvious actions you could take in advance of a cyberattack. luma.com/psvimlhc
luma.com
[Slightly less experimental] Cyberattack wargame · Luma
Participate in a wargame thinking through how more widespread cyberattacks might end up affecting you and your organizations. The hope is that by actually…
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 25/07/2026
Salaries for Lightcone people for 2025, from their recently released public form 990. In particular notice Habryka at $150K (increases my respect for him, because he is paying a personal cost to produce a public good: compare with other salaries in his org.)
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 19/07/2026
Actually I find it pretty heartwarming that the next generation of EA-adjacent entrepreneurs are not repeating my mistakes, and nd are doing for profits rather than non profits
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 06/07/2026
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 09/05/2026
Opus knows roughly who I am
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 26/04/2026
test
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 20/04/2026
Looking at the historical frequency of cyberattacks /thread
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 09/04/2026
Doing a review of a friend's muted accounts to get his reverse worldview and wow is there a lot of crap on this website
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 06/04/2026
power generates demand for your pettiest impulses to be appealed to, funny to observe that playing out in real time.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 30/03/2026
Welcome to Paraguay
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 27/03/2026
A review of Israeli assasination campaigns: www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v48/n06/and…
lrb.co.uk
Andrew Cockburn · Beware the mattress: Mossad’s Kill List
Mossad relied heavily on assorted European security agencies for intelligence on Palestinian activities. Not only did...
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 27/03/2026
I wonder if Raytheon could offer Musk 50B to be CEO for a year? the prime contractors seem like they aren't doing too well producing weapons for the Iran war.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 23/03/2026
Self-reinforcing loops of human flourishing
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 23/03/2026
Sometimes I think I'm reasonably well off financially and then I talk to a Mnenonite who is employing 250 people and has 18 gas stations and I realize how true family wealth looks like.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 19/03/2026
Something I have trouble with is people giving me a genuine no accompanied by a bullshit reason.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 14/03/2026
I've been experimenting with making some stock bets based on stuff I read on twitter; mostly it's been a wash, but good for updating that a) people don't know what they're talking about, b) shooting stuff out and selective reporting of wins is rampant
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 07/03/2026
Kinda cute that you have a nominally democratic regime but then the mechanism you use to actually coordinate people about what to do is finance.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 21/02/2026
If I was dictator of America, why *couldn't* I increase GDP 2x by 2029?
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 21/02/2026
Previously you could trust and install a random github repository, but this changes as people can create malicious repositories at scale <https://www.reddit.com/r/netsec/comments/1r66u2r/analysis_massive_active_github_malware_campaign/> :(
reddit.com
Reddit - The heart of the internet
https://www.reddit.com/r/netsec/comments/1r66u2r/analysis_massive_active_github_malware_campaign/
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 16/02/2026
Global risks this week
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Reposted by Nuño Sempere
Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 15/02/2026
Make list of fundamental human needs and invest in things which are complements to intelligence.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 14/02/2026
AI foids and moids may just charismamaxx and outmog normies in the SMP
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 11/02/2026
The thing about shying away from harsh truths is that eventually you might get outlapped by those who don't, and the equilibrium where this doesn't happen seems fragile. This worries me.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 05/02/2026
Re: the Washington post Subscriptions of about 150 usd, 2.5M subscribers = 375M in revenues If the paper is losing 100M expenses are 475M. Cutting 1/3rd of the cost brings cost to 316M, in line with revenues
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 03/02/2026
Talked with a friend who had had worked on a really cool project last year and is now feeling less excited by his more normal one now. Interesting shade of grief.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 03/02/2026
Vibecoded some simulation software this morning, thought it was neat. You can see the repo here: <https://github.com/NunoSempere/who-does-what>
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 02/02/2026
Smart people are better at convincing and principled rationalizations. Sad to see in others because I recognize the impulse in myself.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 22/01/2026
So do you all use your kin groups and extended families skillfully? I feel like I should be giving my father stock tips but actually he is much better at investing than I.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 18/01/2026
Reading Maslow's Motivation and Personality. Just the preface already has a whole lot of worthy stances about human nature that are not shared these days. Would recommend
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 10/01/2026
Steven Miller is jewish! What a plot twist
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 06/01/2026
Said by a friend: \\\"Sure, we have a Jewish state, so maybe you can have an Islamic State, but man do we like the Jewish state much more than the Islamic State.\"
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 06/01/2026
Said by a friend: \\"Sure, we have a Jewish state, so maybe you can have an Islamic State, but man do we like the Jewish state much more than the Islamic State."
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 31/12/2025
Paraguay is such a fun playground, because things cost 10x less than in the US. So I can e.g., build a restaurant for 10k, hire a developer for 3k/month, rent an apartment for 500/month, buy an apartment for 60k. It feels like I am getting training data faster.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 29/12/2025
my legitimate defense firms, your suspicious weapons manufacturers, their sanctioned arms dealers
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 22/12/2025
Uniquely rich people and institutions delegate decisions to underlyings who have uniquely high transaction costs, in a way that leads to them asking for me to work for free. Funny the first few times but annoying once I spot the pattern.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 14/12/2025
hehehe, if you implicitly trust Claude you are sampling from the implicitly trustworthy region of responses
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 12/12/2025
Whoahoho! Trying this from the command line. If I combine being able to just speak out tweets with being able to do so from the command line, so that I don't get distracted by the Twitter frontend, I will be unstoppable. x.com/NunoSempere/status/1999283419…
x.com
https://x.com/NunoSempere/status/1999283419545764111
https://x.com/NunoSempere/status/1999283419545764111
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 24/11/2025
As the UK stopped being a global superpower James Bond just became a quaint relic and got replaced with Mission Impossible. Curious to see what comes next.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 17/11/2025
Some people really really want particular threat models in AI to be right, so they kind of bend evidence to fit their notions. Seems dangerous, unwise.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 10/11/2025
Oral arguments on Trump tariffs at SCOTUS are actually pretty engaging to read: <https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2025/24-1287_097c.pdf>
supremecourt.gov
https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2025/24-1287_097c.pdf
https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2025/24-1287_097c.pdf
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 27/10/2025
Forecaster estimates of a 3rd Trump term—Trump is a funny guy
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 22/10/2025
If Sentinel wasn't called Sentinel, it might have been called Speculative Catastrophes Horizon Watch and Emergency Reserve Team (SCHWERT). But they wouldn't let me.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 13/10/2025
I am extremely grateful to my American overlords for financing my intense interest in anticipating large-scale risks.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 07/10/2025
So MacKenzie Scott (exwife of Bezos) spent 20B on climate & racial justice. At 100K USD per person per year, over 5 years, that's an army of 40K people working day in, day out
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 23/09/2025
Sad that The Base Rate Times died
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 23/09/2025
Tried roastmypost.org yesterday for the weekly Sentinel brief. It caught a few typos and small stuff, but I can see how the general idea is useful
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 23/09/2025
Humans just recombine too slowly, i.e., given two humans that are interesting on a given metric, it just takes too long to produce a descendant human that shares traits of both. Given this, very unclear how humans don't become obsolete eventually over the epochs.
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 19/09/2025
x
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Nuño Sempere @nunosempere.com · 19/09/2025
Mhh, the algorithm seems to like strong emotions, gratitude, fear, frustration
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