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Hans Kristensen

@nukestrat.bsky.social
18K followers 293 following 1.5K posts

Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists. Tracking nuclear arsenals, co-author of Nuclear Notebook, SIPRI Yearbook. Opinions my own. Website: fas.org/initiative/nuclear-informat…

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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Thank you to @davekearnjr.bsky.social for raising these points relevant to the debate about nuclear options. www.tandfonline.com/eprint/H6RJT... The problem is not lack of options but those advocating for more by creating doubts about those that already exist.
tandfonline.com
Limited nuclear war and the defense of Taiwan
This article assesses proposals to address the challenge of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with the threat of first use of tactical nuclear weapons by the United States. While it is not clear that a ...
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
NNSA did explosive experiment to improved US ability to “detect and characterize nuclear explosive events” globally. www.energy.gov/nnsa/article... With better ability to detect and characterize, and no technical need for US nuke test, US can continue to promote test ban.
energy.gov
NNSA Conducts Nonproliferation Experiment to Strengthen America’s Nuclear Explosion Detection Capabilities
The National Nuclear Security Administration today successfully conducted a subsurface, non-nuclear chemical high-explosive experiment at the Nevada National Security Site, increasing the United State...
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Reposted by Hans Kristensen
Breaking Defense @breakingdefense.com · 24/09/2026
The Air Force says its China think-tank will continue. It’s director says it’s basically dead. breakingdefense.com/2026/09/the-air…
breakingdefense.com
The Air Force says its China think-tank will continue. It’s director says it’s basically dead.
The Air Force’s stance that the China Aerospace Studies Institute can function without civilian staff is “not credible,” its Brendan Mulvaney told Breaking Defense.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
With midterm elections approaching, the Trump regime is trying to create doubt about the voting system. Claims of “rigged election” previously fell in courts, and now claim of alien voters fell in Nevada. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/u...
nytimes.com
From 15,000 to 185 to Zero: Trump’s Claims of Illegal Voting in Nevada Fizzle
It was the Trump administration’s latest stumble in its effort to find proof of widespread noncitizen voting, despite decades of evidence that it is extremely rare.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This has nothing to do with the new U.S.-Denmark agreement the Trumpies are trying to over-sell. They could have done this under the previous arrangement. Sounds like appeasement of the orange toddler.
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Reposted by Hans Kristensen
Mackenzie Knight-Boyle @mknight.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Google Earth has recently begun blurring out military sites in South Korea. Read more in the debut blog by our team's newest @scovillepf.bsky.social fellow, Sachi Barnaby, on @scientistsorg.bsky.social:
fas.org
Now You Don't: Excessive Military Secrecy On Google Earth
This is not the first time Google has agreed to censor imagery at the behest of governments, but be warned: obfuscation at this broad level poses a direct threat to the public’s ability to monitor and...
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Hui Zhang is document new expansion of China’s uranium enrichment capacity. 👇 fissilematerials.org/blog/2026/09...
fissilematerials.org
Rapid expansion of China's enrichment capacity at Emeishan
Hui Zhang Recent satellite images show that the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) has completed the construction of another new large centrifuge enrichment plant (CEP) at the Emeishan site. Th...
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Nope.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Diplomatic damage control.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Trumpies are doing a chest-thumping dance about new agreement reached with Denmark over Greenland. Few details yet but Trump doesn’t “get Greenland,” can continue to operate military facilities, and Russia/China can’t build bases they didn’t plan to build. apnews.com/article/trum...
apnews.com
Denmark's leaders are cautiously optimistic about Trump's announcement of a Greenland deal
Denmark’s foreign minister has expressed cautious optimism about an agreement with the United States over Greenland in the wake of Donald Trump's announcement of a deal to bolster American military pr...
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
The launch of a sounding rocket from Hawaii tested technology for the Mk7 reentry vehicle being developed for the U.S. Navy’s new W93 nuclear warhead. Mk7 will also be used for Britain’s next warhead. First full Mk7 flight test is planned in two years. newsreleases.sandia.gov/atrax_test/
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Trump regime cancels limits on coal/gas power plant pollution, takes step to prevent future govs from regulating power plant pollution. This after canceling limits on trucks/cars. apnews.com/article/epa-... Why can they made decisions that will kill thousands and not go to jail?
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
In our latest FAS Nuclear Notebook we take a look at India’s nuclear arsenal, status & new developments. Freely available in: • PDF (@tandfresearch.bsky.social) www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.... • Web (@thebulletin.org) thebulletin.org/premium/2026... Questions, corrections, suggestions welcome.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
If the Trumpies are trying to limit mail-in voting, you can be pretty sure main-in voting is important for democracy.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Both Google Maps and Apple Maps have submitted to Trump’s imperial games by changing the names of Lake Ontario and Gulf of Mexico to Lake America and Gulf of America. What’s next, Atlantic Ocean as American Ocean? The madness here… 🤪
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Imagine if Biden had done this. The Republicans would have had a collective meltdown screaming corruption and big government.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
How a false claim about Iranian nukes spread on social media (including X) and was amplified by Israeli and U.S. officials. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/16/b...
nytimes.com
How a False Nuclear Claim About Iran Ricocheted From India to Washington
A dubious post that spread on X became the basis of false claims that Iran’s leadership had declared it a nuclear power.
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Reposted by Hans Kristensen
Dylan Spaulding @dkspaulding.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Following push-back, the NNSA has publicly released the executive summary of a study on plutonium pit aging conducted last summer by the JASON committee. It calls into question NNSA's repeated assertions that pit production is urgently required to "replace aging components in the stockpile"🧵
Image shows the cover page of a document with the title "Plutonium Aging: Executive Summary (unclassified)
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Learned today: the New START denuclearized 60-0060 B-52H (see, no external identifier fin) practiced loading nuclear ALCMs during Global Thunder ex in Oct 25 before treaty expired. If so, can’t wait to hear explanation.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
The E-6B transmits launch codes to SSBNs and ICBMs. One of them recently flew an ICBM mission to the three Minuteman III ICBM fields. The E-6B will be replaced by a C-130 in the future that will only do SSBN part.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
More “strategic assets” at Offutt AFB today: E-6B TACAMO, WC-135 Constant Phoenix “nuclear sniffer,” RC-135U Combat Sent, RC-135V Rivet Joint.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
After STRATCOM #DeterrenceSymposium we’re getting the tour at Offutt AFB and the “Doomsday” plane. Kind of surreal.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
At STRATCOM deterrence symposium, a more aggressive nuclear vision focused on strengthened deterrence and production is front and center. NNSA administrator says plan is to produce 100 plutonium pits at Los Alamos by Dec 2028 and develop capacity to field a new nuke in 3-5 years.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Colby didn’t actually offer much specific but broad strokes. It’s a review or re-look at strategic guidance to create more strike options, not strategic versus tactical, but will utilize and drive capabilities for limited regional scenarios. A little like 2018 NPR re-pitch.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
US already has dual-capable fighter-jets and is working to add nuke SLCM. Warhead study underway on non-ballistic reentry vehicles (for IRBM HGV?). Will strategy “upgrade” make virtue out of those with more pointed public regional posture?
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Looks like we’ll get some nuke news here at the #DeterrenceSymposium. DOD apparently will discuss upgrade to nuke strategy that “emphasizes the possible use of shorter-range tactical weapons in case of a regional war with China or Russia.” www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...
nbcnews.com
Pentagon drafting a new U.S. nuclear strategy in case of regional war with China or Russia, sources say
The classified strategy informs nuclear options for the commander in chief during crises.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
I’m in Omaha for STRATCOM’s deterrence symposium. Looking forward to learning more about how nuke posture is evolving in the growing strategic competition. Background: www.stratcomds.com/2026/agenda
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
This weekend, USA celebrates its 250th anniversary under the shadow of the Trump regime. Still far from the ”more perfect Union,” the country has been moving backward fast under a corrupt and tyrannical Trump. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/02/w... Can it right itself?
nytimes.com
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
After yesterday’s B-2 flyover of Washington DC, two B-52s have just arrived in the area. Part of 250-year anniversary celebrations.
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Reposted by Hans Kristensen
Jon B. Wolfsthal @jonatomic.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
This remains a stunning document. Wendy Sherman has called it unconditional surrender. It does not resolve the nuclear issue in Iran, and provides Iran with more than it had ever dreamed of before. thinkingnuclear.substack.com/p/trumps-ira...
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Interesting analysis from Fabian Hinz: Available evidence strongly suggests that Russia’s Zircon is not a hypersonic cruise missile but rather a maneuverable quasi-ballistic system using rocket propulsion. luftlage.substack.com/p/not-quite-...
luftlage.substack.com
Not Quite a Diamond
Reassessing Russia’s Zircon Missile
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
*INF treaty
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
As INF missile race heats up in Europe less than a decade after Russia cheated and Trump abandoned IRF treaty, defense industry is offering new systems. www.aerotime.aero/articles/sof...
aerotime.aero
Soframe, Thales, ArianeGroup detail B-Strike at Eurosatory
At Eurosatory 2026, Soframe, Thales and ArianeGroup presented X-Fire and B-Strike as a sovereign French deep-strike architecture spanning 150 to 2,500 km.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
A little surprised list was elaborate.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Russia sent Su-24MR tactical reconnaissance aircraft close to Swedish airspace to probe defenses in two locations. Swedish Defense PR: x.com/forsvarsmakt... Interview: www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...
x.com
Försvarsmakten (@Forsvarsmakten) on X
Under fredagen genomförde den svenska incidentberedskapen två insatser med JAS 39 Gripen för att möta ryska stridsflyg i Östersjön nära svenskt luftrum. Incidenterna involverade två ryska stridsflyg a...
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
At recent US-Japan Extended Deterrence Dialogue meeting, Japan strongly encouraged US pursuit of multilateral strategic stability talks to help avert nuclear arms race, address concerns about nuclear testing, reduce nuclear risks, and bolster transparency. www.state.gov/releases/off...
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
The United States and Russia both lost a bomber yesterday. A US B-52 strategic bomber crashed at Edwards AFB. A Russian Tu-22M3 intermediate-range bomber crashed near Belaya AB. Accidents and Ukraine war have reduced T-22M3 fleet to around 20 operational aircraft (h/t @vcdgf555.bsky.social).
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
The US is falling behind on renewable energy because of Trump and red tape. A standard 7-kilowatt solar system that costs $28,000 to install here, would cost only $4,000 in Australia or $10,000 in Germany. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/14/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | The Tiny Solar Panel That Could Change America
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
After having slashed government agencies and fired tens of thousands of employees while celebrating their loss with a chainsaw dance, Musk returned to his business empire with billions more in new government contracts and is now the world’s first trillionaire. www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
While Congress is working to pass the Trump regime’s defense budget - the biggest ever, GAO report finds DOD’s costliest weapon programs consistently exceed cost estimates and delivery schedules, wasting billions of dollars and decades of time. www.gao.gov/products/gao...
gao.gov
U.S. GAO - Weapon Systems Acquisition: Beyond Business as Usual—Using Leading Practices to Curb Waste and Save Billions
Since 1990, DOD’s costliest weapon programs have consistently exceeded cost estimates and delivery schedules—wasting billions of dollars and decades...
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
As the United States prepares to celebrate its 250th anniversary, poll finds Trump phenomenon and hardship have corrosive effect on how Americans view their country. apnews.com/article/ap-p...
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Our updated world nuclear arsenal overview in the SIPRI Yearbook is now public. Honored to assemble, with @mattkorda.bsky.social, this annual production with @sipri.org to assist the public debate about the status and future of nuclear weapons. Press release: www.sipri.org/media/press-...
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
I spoke with @jonasolsson.bsky.social about our new nuke number estimates and the scrambling in Europe for nuclear and conventional deterrence fixes given Trump’s undermining of US credibility and security guarantee. breakingdefense.com/2026/06/macr...
breakingdefense.com
Macron’s nuclear pact expands across Scandinavia as global forces surges - Breaking Defense
Norway is just the latest ally to open discussions with Paris about France’s extended nuclear deterrence initiative.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Great brief from @warinthefuture.bsky.social mickryan.substack.com/p/highway-to... Only one quibble about new construction in China: interviewed “broadly agreed the infrastructure supports China’s nuclear programme” + “points toward a second-strike hardening programme.” Don’t see evidence for that.
mickryan.substack.com
Highway to Hell: Ukraine's Logistics Lockdown, Taiwan’s Littoral Command and China’s Evolving Nuclear Capability. The Big Five, 31 May edition.
My weekly update. This week, Ukraine's logistic lockdown and its integration with tactical and deep strike operations, the new Taiwanese Littoral Combat Command and my Big 5 recommended reads.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
The corruption of the Trump regime is astounding. After a frivolous $10 billion lawsuit against the US tax agency (IRS), a “settlement” ordered by Trump’s former lawyer - now acting Attorney General - ordered IRS to end audits of Trump and his family. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/02/u...
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Trump picks mortgage boss with no intelligence experience…to head US intelligence. But he’s loyal. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec... The new $250 bill should have label: “In incompetence we trust.”
washingtonpost.com
Trump picks mortgage chief Bill Pulte to lead on national intelligence
Pulte, head of a mortgage regulation agency and a loyalist to President Donald Trump, will replace Tulsi Gabbard, who is leaving as director of national intelligence.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
It’s hard to fathom why more countries would be interested in nuke arrangement with the US at a time when confidence in the US security commitment is in doubt. Plus, if current arrangements aren’t sufficient, why would more make a difference? www.ft.com/content/1a32...
ft.com
US in talks to expand nuclear weapons deployments in Europe
Washington has signalled openness to additional countries hosting nuclear-capable bombers
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Here is the link to the conference: www.loccum.de/tagungen/2624/
loccum.de
AT THE EDGE?
How Europe Should Respond to Nuclear Threats
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Tranquil view during interesting conference at Protestant Academy Loccum in Germany discussing nuclear security issues in Europe. Lots of interesting speakers and views. Happy to contribute. www.landeskirche-hannovers.de/presse
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
Less than 6 months from US midterm elections, Trump has lied over 100 times past 6 months that 2020 election was rigged. Two-thirds of Republicans believe him. Even more wrongly think large numbers of fraudulent ballots are cast by non-citizens. politiko.com.ph/2026/05/26/t... 🤪
politiko.com.ph
Trump claims 2020 election 'rigged' at least 107 times in six months as midterms loom
President Donald Trump has repeated his false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him at least 107 times in the last six months, keeping the grievance front and center even as he faces new po...
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