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Neil D

@nsdtrading.bsky.social
189 followers 72 following 1.2K posts

#Algo stock trader for 5 years, other trading for 28 years. Other interests photography with my Fuji #X100S. Barefoot runner of some 16 years. Guitar strummer

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
THE RIVER THAT WAS NOT ON THE MAP The mortgages were packaged. The securities were rated. The risk appeared to move elsewhere. Then the housing market fell. atstradingsolutions.com/the-origins-... #Risk #Markets #FinancialCrisis #OutlierHunter
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Trump is a pathetic excuse for a human being. Threatening to "obliterate" Iran yet he has to be smuggled off the presidential aircraft in a food container, leaving all his staff behind. The ultimate coward.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I noticed the snivelling sycophants at Alphabet/Google have now shown Lake Erie as Lake America. Spineless, weak, money grubbing company. Another one to boycott.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Its strange that the Republicans are so against DEI yet they make an exception by having an imbecile as their leader.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
It must be the Pareto principal at work here which states that 80% of the profits come from 20% of the holdings. The 2 main constituents are still in the lead.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
So now the king of corruption Donald Trump is offering to pay $5000 to every adult if the Republicans keep control. What tin-pot dictatorship does he think he lives in. Why isn't he swinging from a noose by now?
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Momentum portfolio current holdings looking like it's doing the right thing
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Its easy to spot the potential outliers. They are few and far between so holding on for as long as possible is the best action.
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
RISK IS NOT VARIANCE | Episode 2: The Two-Cent Dollar Read Episode 2 here: atstradingsolutions.com/risk-is-not-... #TrendFollowing #RiskManagement #SharpeRatio #SystematicTrading
atstradingsolutions.com
RISK IS NOT VARIANCE | Episode 2 – The Two-Cent Dollar - ATS Trading
Modern finance measures risk by squaring. Across 68 futures markets and 42 years, here is what that square hides.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Eventually #GNP parts way with the portfolio after over a year and a 12.5R return. Not much more approaching that level in the portfolio.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Got a ticket to see Kristin at the Grace Emily hotel in the city. youtube.com/watch?v=8Ckp...
youtube.com
Kristin Hersh - Dark Eyed Junco (Official Video)
YouTube video by firerecords
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Reposted by Neil D
Amanda Palmer @amandapalmer.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Good morning Bluesky. I just dropped my first official music video in seven years. It feels very, very cathartic. Basically, fuck everything. 🔥🔥🔥🎉🔥🔥🔥 youtu.be/8L7g69v_7j8
youtu.be
AMANDA PALMER - DEATH THING [OFFICIAL VIDEO]
YouTube video by Amanda Palmer
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
WE ARE NOT THEM Read it here: atstradingsolutions.com/we-are-not-t... #TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #ManagedFutures #OutlierHunter
atstradingsolutions.com
THE OUTLIER HUNTER: WE ARE NOT THEM - ATS Trading
We Are Not Them argues that classic trend following is judged by the wrong instruments. Discover why Outlier Hunters measure success differently, why Sharpe ratios and price correlations miss the poin...
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
The graph illustrates how holding the big winners can pay for the losers.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
The best performance is coming from the CS momentum system. That will also start to turn down if no direction becomes apparent.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Shorter term S04 has not made new highs since before the sideways period of 2022. We seem to be back into that pattern where long trends are few and far between.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
S02 portfolio starting to slip and not produced a positive return YTD.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
The poor performance of the Australian All Ordinaries index can be plainly seen in the number of stocks above the 200DMA. A 50DMA has been used to normalise the data.
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
THE EMBEDDED AGENT | Episode 1 of 7: THE MAP THAT WALKS Read it here: atstradingsolutions.com/the-embedded... #SystematicTrading #ComplexSystems #MarketStructure #TheEmbeddedAgent
atstradingsolutions.com
THE EMBEDDED AGENT SERIES | Episode 1 of 7: The Map That Walks - ATS Trading
Why Every Model Describes a World You Are Not In “The menu is not the meal” – Alan Watts NEXT: THE EMBEDDED AGENT | Episode 2 of 7: The Predator Who Changes the Prey There is a moment every systematic...
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
@investingidiocy.bsky.social just listening to your latest TTU podcast. Get a few articles posted on the forum over here. I left X over a year ago as i couldn't in abide it any longer. We have a few trend followers on here, notably Richard Brennan.
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
THE STILLNESS BEFORE | Episode 3 of 8: The Three Crowds on the Bridge atstradingsolutions.com/the-stillnes...
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
From these system stats, would you trade them?
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Reposted by Neil D
Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 02/06/2026
Anthropic and OpenAI are dangerous and unsustainable companies that shouldn’t be taken public. The AI bubble is a con and retail investors are the marks. AI doesn’t have ROI, it’s nothing like AWS or Uber, and it’s got no post-bubble recovery story. www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbKD...
youtube.com
Anthopic, OpenAI Should Not Be Allowed to IPO, Says Ed Zitron
YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
The CSL.ax chart shown all four of the stages. • Stage 1: 2008-2012 • Stage 2: 2013-2020 • Stage 3: 2021-2025 • Stage 4: 2025-present A lot of money going up in smoke if it's in your Super holdings
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
In Episode 13 of Turtle Talk, the three turtles welcome a very special guest: Mike Melissinos, one of the handful of genuinely uncompromising classic trend followers still doing it the original way. This one is pure punk rock. Read and listen here: atstradingsolutions.com/turtle-talk-...
atstradingsolutions.com
Turtle Talk : Episode 013 - ATS Trading
Turtle Talk with Rich Brennan, Adam Havryliv, and Jerry Parker. Raw, unfiltered conversations on trend following.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Final return for May is in and another good month. Quite a dispersion between my time series TF systems the cross sectional ones.
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Your diversification was designed to fail at the exact moment you needed it most. atstradingsolutions.com/the-geometry... #TrendFollowing #CrisisAlpha #PortfolioConstruction #RiskManagement
atstradingsolutions.com
THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 8 of 15: Crisis Alpha: Compounding When Others Are Destroyed - ATS Trading
Diversification works when you don’t need it and fails when you do. Trend following does the opposite. It performs when everything else is falling apart PREVIOUS: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 7 of...
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
The Cut Is the Geometry: Why Losing 45% of the Time Builds More Wealth Than Being Right Read the full article: atstradingsolutions.com/the-geometry... #TrendFollowing #RiskManagement #GeometricCompounding #SystematicInvesting
atstradingsolutions.com
THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 6 of 15: The Cut Is the Geometry - ATS Trading
How cutting losses protects the compounding engine with convex efficiency, and why the willingness to be wrong often is the price of being right geometrically The TTU Trend Following Index loses money...
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
The Sharpe Mirage Read Episode 3: atstradingsolutions.com/the-geometry... #TrendFollowing #RiskManagement #PortfolioConstruction #SystematicInvesting
atstradingsolutions.com
THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 3 of 15: The Sharpe Mirage - ATS Trading
Why the most trusted metric in finance is optimised for a world that does not exist, and how it hides the geometric superiority of the processes that protect compounding The most widely used risk metr...
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Good to see the Australian government budget has at last tackled the reverse Robin Hood negative gearing on property. They tax the poor and give to the wealthy property investors.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Came across one of my old printouts from 1999 of the NASDAQ. Doesn't it look eerily the same as today. Surely history can't repeat itself.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
CS Momentum system beating the pants of TS Momentum at the moment. The SD will be much higher but it's always good to get off to a good start before the DD appears.
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
The Quietest Markets Are Hiding the Loudest Risks Read the full Foundation here: atstradingsolutions.com/the-foundati... #TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #RiskManagement #FuturesTrading
atstradingsolutions.com
THE FOUNDATIONS SERIES | FOUNDATION 5 OF 10 - ATS Trading
The Role of Noise: Why Quiet Markets Are Dangerous Noise is not the enemy of the systematic trend follower. Silence is. Understanding the difference changes how you read every market condition you wil...
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
A couple more holdings that are starting to move #ARU.ax & #WC8.ax which almost exited a month ago. ARU peaked and management decided to use the opportunity to fill up the company coffers with a large discounted capital raises. The trailing stop held and there is a slight recovery now.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
Slowly trying to climb out of the drawdown when the US started it's war against Iran. The stripped down portfolio contains half the quantity of stocks that were held in February so most of the portfolio is still cash. No purchases until the filter switches back on.
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Diversification Is Not About Comfort. It Is About Presence. Read the full piece here: atstradingsolutions.com/the-foundati... #TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #ComplexityEconomics #OutlierHunter
atstradingsolutions.com
THE FOUNDATIONS SERIES | FOUNDATION 3 OF 10 - ATS Trading
What Diversification Actually Does (and What It Cannot Do) Classical diversification measures correlation and hopes it holds. The Outlier Hunter pursues structural independence, because correlation is...
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
Why Position Sizing Is the Most Important Decision You Make atstradingsolutions.com/the-foundati... #TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #PositionSizing #OutlierHunter
atstradingsolutions.com
THE FOUNDATIONS SERIES | FOUNDATION 2 OF 10 - ATS Trading
Why Position Sizing Is the Most Important Decision You Make Your entry tells you where to play. Your position size determines whether you survive long enough to find out if you were right. Previous: F...
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
Three longer term portfolio positions that have weathered the turmoil #GNP.ax #ALK.ax & #MLX.ax . GNP reaching new highs while the others are resting.
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Most traders believe they have a system. They don't. Read the full article here: atstradingsolutions.com/the-foundati... #SystematicTrading #TrendFollowing #OutlierHunter #TradingSystems
atstradingsolutions.com
THE FOUNDATIONS SERIES | FOUNDATION 1 OF 10 - ATS Trading
What a System Actually Is Not a collection of rules. Not a set of indicators. A process, complete and explicit, that runs without interpretation, without override, and without the need to know what ha...
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Two photos taken maybe 40 years apart. I took the photo looking down Wardour St in London in the 1980s. The colour photo is from Google street view recently. Looks like an improvement over the years.
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
The feedback structure persists. Simple trend-following returns do not. The edge has not died. It has relocated. Episode 7 of The Fractals of Finance is live now. atstradingsolutions.com/the-fractals... #SystematicTrading #QuantitativeFinance #TrendFollowing #MarketStructure
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Reposted by Neil D
Liam Nissan™ @theliamnissan.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Repost this one for me please
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
The Trend-Equity Paradox: Now Explained atstradingsolutions.com/the-fractals... #TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #CrisisAlpha #OutlierHunter
atstradingsolutions.com
THE FRACTALS OF FINANCE | Research Series Phase 2 | Episode 3 of 9 - ATS Trading
The Trend-Equity Paradox Everyone in the industry knows that trend-following provides crisis alpha. Nobody has explained why. The coupled spectrum does. We identified the twenty worst months for the S...
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Poor Pami, The wheels on the bus go round and round. With Pami caught under the bus. So sad too bad 😂😂😂😂
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Dont worry about the gas pump prices, what do you think of the gold coloured curtains for my new ballroon. Nice gold toilet as well. All the important things.
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Reposted by Neil D
Rich Brennan @richb118.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Loose Pants & Big Trends: February 2026 Review 🎧 Listen now: www.aussieturtles.com/episode-012-... #TurtleTalk #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #MythBusters
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Reposted by Neil D
Tom Quinn @tomquinn.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
“This delivery ushers in a new era for Australian road freight where electric heavy trucks are not just cheaper and faster, they unshackle Australia from volatile global oil markets, dramatically strengthening our supply chain resilience,”
thedriven.io
Faster, and a lot cheaper: First all-electric long haul delivery flags new era in Australia trucking
A new era of all-electric trucking is being hailed after Australia's first inter-city delivery from warehouse to customers was completed at a much lower
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
The only 4 market sectors holding up under the pressure are what you would expect. ☆ Energy ☆ Utilities ☆ Financials ☆ Consumer Staples Get your finances in order, stock the shelves with tinned food, hope the sun shines for your panels/battery & dust off your pushbike.
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
The stocks are gradually being emptied from the portfolio as the trends come to an end or fail shortly after breakout. Open profits collapsing since the start of the war. Closed profits holding as profits turned into cash.
Portfolio value including open stock positions and cash, not including dividends.Profit/loss from the sale of shares
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Neil D @nsdtrading.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
Australian stocks continue to weaken. The 52wk NHNL is in negative territory now with more stocks hitting their yearly low points. More stocks below the 200 day moving average. A sign to stay away.
52 week new highs vs new lowsStocks above the 200 day moving average
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