Built for What We Cannot Foresee What five centuries of managing uncertainty can teach us about surviving the next surprise A Venetian merchant commits capital to a ship that may never return. An eigh...

Only 14 of 49 markets rose, yet the TTU Trend Barometer held at 52%. This Week in Trend explores why direction and persistence diverged.

Explore the September 2026 ATS Classic Trend Report: a 2.66% gain led by energy, with detailed performance, attribution and system analysis.

The Physicists Who Stopped Predicting How complexity science changed the questions we ask about markets, crises and survival In 2009, the financial system was still absorbing the shock of the previous...

August 2026’s Rising Stars and Trend Titans tracks a 3.02% gain across 99 trend-following programs, the month’s leaders and their five-year records.

How Black, Scholes and Merton transformed option pricing, what the 1987 crash exposed, and why elegant models still need resilient design.

How actuarial science learned to price mortality, why the method worked, and what finance misunderstood when it carried the model into markets.

Trend strength and returns reached sequence highs as only 14 of 49 markets rose, revealing the difference between breadth, persistence and payoff.

Rich Brennan walks through ATS's 8-part series on Santa Fe complexity economics, and why it is the deepest case yet for systematic trend following.

The Programme, Complete Seven components. One integrated system. A synthesis of the System Anatomy Series: what each episode argued, how the components depend on one another, and why the intelligence ...

Explore the ATS Classic Trend Report for August 2026: a 12.27% benchmark gain led by grains, metals and energy, plus trend-following performance insights.

Rollover Mechanics The system can only be as honest as the price history it sees. In futures, that history has to be constructed. Previous: System Anatomy 5: The Ensemble Approach   |   Next: System Anatomy 7: The Cut Back Rule A surveyor can work with extraordinary precision and still produce the wrong map. The measurements can […]

Grains surged as market breadth narrowed and trend strength improved. Explore the key moves shaping global futures markets this week.

The Ensemble Approach No single rule sees the whole market. That is not a problem to solve. It is the reason we use more than one. Previous: System Anatomy 4: Portfolio Construction   |   Next: System Anatomy 6: Rollover Mechanics A radio telescope is an extraordinary instrument. Point one at the sky and it can detect […]

July delivered plenty of market movement but little persistence. We examine why trends repeatedly broke, what it cost trend followers, and what the TTU Trend Barometer is signalling next.

Position Sizing The formula is simple. What it protects us from is not. Position sizing is not an optimisation problem. It is an engineering problem built around one requirement: remain in the game. Previous: System Anatomy 2: Exit Logic   |   Next: System Anatomy 4: Portfolio Construction A seawall does not stop the ocean. That would […]

Exit Logic The entry gets you in. The exit determines what happens next. Two rules. Two different problems. One keeps the mistake survivable. The other gives the extraordinary trade room to become extraordinary. Previous: System Anatomy 1: Entry Logic   |   Next: System Anatomy 3: Position Sizing Flying a kite requires a peculiar kind of discipline. […]

Entry Logic The entry signal fires without certainty. That is not a flaw in the design. It is the condition under which the entire system operates. Previous: Introduction: The Programme, From the Insi...

The Programme, From the Inside Introducing the System Anatomy Series: seven essays on the structural logic of how a systematic trend following programme is actually built and run, written for the prac...

Like a tightrope walked to its edge, the mathematically optimal bet leaves no margin. Why survival, not optimisation, compounds.

An empty chair becomes the starting point for one of life's deepest questions. Explore loss, memory and meaning in Carved by Impossibility.

Five episodes, 68 futures markets, 42 years. An empirical audit of the number modern finance calls risk.

Global futures trend report for 7 August 2026. Metals sweep higher and the TTU Barometer recovers to 34 percent, yet trend followers lost ground.

Can identical returns produce completely different investor outcomes? Explore two interactive experiments that reveal why sequence, not variance, determines real investment risk.

Shuffle forty years of returns like a deck of cards. Every statistic stays identical. The worst loss moves 50 points.

ATS Classic Trend Report for July 2026: how a systematic trend-following portfolio recovered after June's regime shift as new energy trends emerged across global futures.

Crude surrenders its breakout and the TTU Barometer collapses to 30 percent and Very Weak in this trend following market report on 49 global futures.

A safety limit breached twice as often as promised. A quiet bond market that authorised sixteen times leverage.

Modern finance measures risk by squaring. Across 68 futures markets and 42 years, here is what that square hides.