iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Non Jenkins

Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Today's young republicans are tomorrow's loyal subjects — support for monarchy rises steadily with age across all generations 👑 Started as office joke but ended with valuable finding about legitimacy of unaccountable institutions. Andrew's latest disgrace not in data, but plenty of earlier ones are

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Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru @walesgovernance.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

🎙️DIGWYDDIAD | EVENT - 23/06/2026 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇬🇧🇪🇺 Degawd ers Refferendwm am adael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd | A Decade on from the EU Referendum Ymunwch â ni i wythnos nesaf i glywed ein hymchwil diweddaraf ar #Cymru ôl-Brecsit | Join us to hear our research on post-Brexit #Wales. www.eventbrite.com/e/1991988577...

eventbrite.com

Wales and the EU Referendum: A Decade On

Degawd ers Refferendwm am adael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Come join us next Tuesday for new analysis on how Wales has changed in the 10 years since the Eu Referendum 👇

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social: After EU Referendum Remain voters became less British🇬🇧 Same gap emerged between Yes and No voters after 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 IndyRef but then disappeared; Brexit's hasn't, because ongoing implementation keeps reinforcing the threat, meaning gap has continued to grow. Full link 👇

Long-term change in British identity across three model specifications. In all models Remain voters show a drop in Britishness. In two of the three Leavers also show a drop in Britishness but this is smaller

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Siôn Jobbins @sionjobbins.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

Ironic. If Greens decided not to stand in Valleys seats for Senedd election then their chances of playing part in govt would have increased. They're unlikely to win 12% in any seat there but 5-8% vote they'll get cld have gone to Plaid - almost guaranteeing Plaid-led govt.🤔

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Tactical voting likely to play a big role in driving vote choice (yes, you can tactically vote in this system) Majority want to stop a Reform government and see Plaid as best placed to stop them, but progressive fragmentation remains Reform's route to being largest party (though not government)

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Welsh polling remains very noisy Reform has dropped off in other polling but steady here 29% would be Plaid's worst Senedd VI from YG since Nov 24 (sceptical of this given other trends both in Wales and UK) Lab bounce driven by MiC polling, but some small hope for them

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Richard Wyn Jones @richardwynjones.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

The latest YouGov/ITV Wales/Cardiff Uni is a real puzzler given that, alongside Senedd VIs, we also have this - and I have no idea how to reconcile them! A three pipe problem?!

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Hmmm …. The Green Party printing their Cardiff leaflets for Senedd Cymru election 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 in Southend-on-sea, Essex, England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 … 🧐 Why are they not supporting local businesses in Cymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 to print these leaflets? 🧐

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

Proving Misconduct in Public Office is not easy, as it’s a matter of ‘AND’ not ‘OR’. All four elements👇🏻must be proven together to prove that the offence has been committed. All or nothing… Though this does not preclude other issues from surfacing in the process…🧐👀

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 22/02/2026

‘Welsh Gov stats are not telling the full story’ ‘It is layer upon layer of systems which aim to provide everything but clarity.’ ‘manufacture superficial wins based upon selectively highlighting columns on an Excel spreadsheet’ @willhaycardiff.bsky.social latest newsletter

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

‘The absurdity of GP funding in Wales’ by Dr Jim Pink and Dr Matthew Jones bjgplife.com/the-absurdit...

bjgplife.com

The absurdity of GP funding in Wales – BJGP Life

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

‘GP practices in wealthiest areas of Wales receive more funding than deprived areas.’ ‘There is an urgent need to restore fairness in the funding for GP practices in Wales, finds new research by Cardiff University.’ Dr Jonny Currie & Cardiff University www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/28...

cardiff.ac.uk

GP practices in wealthiest areas of Wales receive more funding than deprived areas

Underinvestment in GP services in Wales’ most deprived areas contributing to health inequalities, researchers say

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

‘Devolution is supposed to allow Wales to do things creatively, to find Welsh specific solutions to Welsh specific problems. GPs are the frontline in Wales but they have been tethered to a funding formula which was designed for England for decades.’ @willhaycardiff.bsky.social DrJonny Currie says:

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Will Hayward - Wales Journo @willhaycardiff.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

I have made some predictions for what we can expect in Welsh politics in 2026. I would love to know what you predictions are... willhaywardwales.substack.com/p/the-big-we...

willhaywardwales.substack.com

The big Welsh politics predictions for 2026

We are in for an interesting year...

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Will Hayward - Wales Journo @willhaycardiff.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

Reform UK's director for Wales has been removed from Cwmbran Community Council for failing to attend meetings. David Thomas is also goes by the names "DJ Dowster" and "Dr Squeegees" (I am not joking). Find out more about Dr Squeegees here: willhaywardwales.substack.com/p/special-re...

willhaywardwales.substack.com

Special report: Who are Reform in Wales?

We dived into the wild world of Reform UK in Cymru

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Will Hayward - Wales Journo @willhaycardiff.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

This is a clip from inside the Welsh Parliament. So much to say about this. For one thing, Mike Hedges is having an absolute mare here. Jenny Rathbone's facial reactions when he starts praising the USA are incredible. 😮 Andrew RT Davies being the spectre at the feast stuck behind a pillar. 👻

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Will Hayward - Wales Journo @willhaycardiff.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

Labour's plans for the 2026 Senedd election have been leaked to my news letter. Some of it makes sense. Some is bizarre. Some is frustrating. Much is enraging. willhaywardwales.substack.com/p/exclusive-...

willhaywardwales.substack.com

Exclusive: Welsh Labour’s election plan leaked

We have obtained Eluned Morgan’s plan for the 2026 election

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Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru @walesgovernance.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

Bwriadau pleidleisio Senedd / Senedd Voting Intention (YouGov - nid MRP/ not MRP method) / (28/11 - 10/12) PC: 33% REF: 30% LLAF/LAB: 10% CEID/CON: 10% GWYRDD/GRN: 9% DEM RHYDD/LD: 6% ERAILL/OTH: 2% N=1,891 Ein dadansoddiad ni / Our analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk

Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment

Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

New 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 data paints picture of consolidation within two blocs: a Welsh-identifying/progressive bloc (with Plaid as largest party) and a British-identifying/conservative bloc (with Reform as largest). Adds to evidence that 2026 is shaping up to be 2-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK 🧵

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

‘What makes the (Welsh Lab Gov) refusal to hold a Welsh inquiry all the worse is that one of the findings of the UK inquiry was that many of the mistakes made in Wales were well after the first lockdown - when they were overwhelmingly in charge of the response’ @willhaycardiff.bsky.social newsletter

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Will Hayward - Wales Journo @willhaycardiff.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Nathan Gill's social media bio... They claim to love the country they would sell down the river for a stuffed brown envelope. He was the head of Reform in Wales. How do you think Reform would react if any other party leader had been found to have committed such crimes?

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Will Hayward - Wales Journo @willhaycardiff.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Can you imagine how Reform UK would react if a Welsh leader of any other party had been sentenced for 10 years for taking bribes? Nathan Gill once said he "would never apologise for being patriotic". Tbf he never said to which country...

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Carole Cadwalladr @carolecadwalla.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Bribery is a "malignancy" at the heart of British public life, says judge. The law responds with "stern punishment"

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇

Boris Johnson toasting one of the gatherings in Downing Street which breached Covid lockdown rules

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

‘Multilingualism protects against accelerated aging in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of 27 European countries’ @erictopol.bsky.social @plaidcymru.bsky.social @mabonapgwynfor.bsky.social @rhunapiorwerth.bsky.social @cefincampbell.bsky.social

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

This,This, Hwn!👇🏻 ‘In Wales, a country where our politicians can rarely go more than an hour without mentioning the Future Generations Act, Does a nation where 45% of those aged under 4 live in poverty really give a crap about future generations?’ @willhaycardiff.bsky.social newsletter 🔥👏

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

This is shockingly uninformed about how polling works

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

Sarah Rees, @plaidcymru.bsky.social said: “When even seasoned trade union leaders are saying keeping out Reform means voting for Plaid Cymru, it's clear the tide is turning. "If voters in Wales want to protect our hard won rights, Plaid Cymru is the party that stands up for them and for Wales.”🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

Two unpopular governments at both ends of the M4 🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

A bar chart showing approval and disapproval ratings for the UK and Welsh governments in April 2025 and September 2025. In April 2025, UK government approval was 15% with 60% disapproval (net -45%), while Welsh government had 19% approval and 48% disapproval (net -29%). By September 2025, UK government approval dropped to 8% with 71% disapproval (net -63%), and Welsh government approval fell to 12% with 51% disapproval (net -39%). Source: ITV Wales polling, Chart by Jac Larner

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 16/09/2025

The Westminster implications are staggering too. On these numbers, Labour would likely be reduced to just 3 Welsh seats, Plaid would win around 6, and Reform could take most of the remaining 23 seats out of Wales's 32 constituencies 🧵 End

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 16/09/2025

Reform's success creates its own problems for government formation. By cannibalising Conservative support, they may find themselves without natural coalition partners, while their vote could be inefficiently distributed across constituencies 🧵

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 16/09/2025

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

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Will Hayward - Wales Journo @willhaycardiff.bsky.social · 15/09/2025

Any political party that says they can fix the Welsh NHS without tackling its labyrinth of an organisational structure is, in my opinion, not serious about tacking the problem.

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Will Hayward - Wales Journo @willhaycardiff.bsky.social · 15/09/2025

This means that even when we are asking basic questions about what the current situation is within healthcare, we can’t be sure if we are getting the right answer.

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Will Hayward - Wales Journo @willhaycardiff.bsky.social · 15/09/2025

The Wales Centre for Public Policy made a graphic showing how this works:

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Will Hayward - Wales Journo @willhaycardiff.bsky.social · 15/09/2025

The Welsh NHS structure is immensely convoluted. This makes driving system wide change challenging. Let me explain just how complex the NHS in a country of 3m is... [Thread]

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 15/09/2025

A quote from @willhaycardiff.bsky.social’s latest newsletter 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿: 🔴🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 ‘between 2016 and 2022, over 15,000 people had died while on a waiting list 🔴🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 since May 2021 Senedd election 38,374 patients died while waiting for NHS treatment This is the breakdown by 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 health board … 1/2

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

bsky.app/profile/nonj...

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

bsky.app/profile/nonj...

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Non Jenkins @nonjenkins.bsky.social · 20/04/2025

Lots of talk of Cymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 and England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 WAITING LISTS over the last 10 or so yrs … but what about effects on the 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿&🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 ANNUAL NUMBER OF REGISTERED DEATHS BY PLACE 2015-2024(prov)? DEATHS (All)📈🧐 at HOME 📈🚨🧐‼️ at HOSPITAL ~ at CARE HOMES ~ at HOSPICES ~ at OTHER ESTABLISHMENTS ~ ELSEWHERE 📈🧐 Source :ONS

ONS data on Number of death registrations by place of occurence, England and Wales 2015 to 2024 provisional

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NationCymru @nation.cymru · 29/07/2025

A Welsh language campaign group has hit out at the 'disappointing' 0.2% increase in the number of children attending Welsh medium schools, at odds with the Welsh Government's target for one million Welsh speakers by 2050

nation.cymru

Urgent action needed or Welsh-medium education for all 'will take until the year 2424'

Stephen Price A Welsh language campaign group has hit out at the ‘disappointing’ 0.2% increase in the number of children attending Welsh medium schools, at odds with the Welsh Government’s target for ...

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