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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 19m

One study looked at how reducing the curriculum at a top university in Colombia impacted graduates wages. If signaling drives returns, pay should stay similar since the school's brand is unchanged. If skill-building matters, wages ought to drop

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 19m

Higher education is often accused of not creating real value. It prompts a core question: do colleges actually develop skills, or just signal the abilities students already have? #HigherEd #EducationDebate

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 27/09/2026

And the UK doing the same - this is predominantly a transfer to homeowners. If that's something you want, then go ahead with this policy. But I don't think that's the desired goal.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 26/09/2026

As is often the case, this policy sounds like it help first time homebuyers, but it will predominantly serve as a benefit to home sellers.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 24/09/2026

An “economist” that states a solution based on their own preferences or by ‘hiding’ assumptions, is not speaking like an economist, but simply an interested party. 3/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 24/09/2026

A good economist should help policy makers design policies based on the preferences they highlight, under the conditions that are present. 2/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 24/09/2026

This is a great example of what a good economist should do. Acemoglu clearly states that because of current tax policies, a wealth tax may be a good policy solution, even though it would not be optimal in a perfect world. 1/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 24/09/2026

A summary of the research on AI and junior employees - businesses will need to adapt how they train their staff.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 23/09/2026

I've seen far more economists cover Mamdani’s grocery stores (which do not exist yet) than these gas stations (which do exist). In terms of ‘unfair subsidy’, I think one of these is a much bigger issue.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 18/09/2026

I would caution with using polling margins - they're not as predictive of outcome. I think the level of candidate support contains more information than margin. A 51-49 poll is very different from a 45-43 poll.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 18/09/2026

But is restoring the corporate tax rate the only solution or could we balance the tax cuts with a raise in different taxes on the beneficiaries of the corporate tax cut? www.nominalnews.com/... 2/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 18/09/2026

Trump’s TCJA corporate tax cuts enacted in 2017 resulted in an increase in economic activity, but the benefits predominantly accrued to the top 10% of the income distribution. 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 17/09/2026

If you want to get a sense where interest rates are heading, here is my conditional forecast from my write-up - it depends on what the government does.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 16/09/2026

“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy” - this was deleted from the statement. This is very hawkish. Inflation is not just energy shocks.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 16/09/2026

Here is the statement announcing the interest rate hike, and the changes to the prior statement in July:

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 16/09/2026

Perhaps another option is feasible - raising income and dividend taxes targeting the biggest beneficiaries of corporate tax cuts. Find out more: www.nominalnews.com/... 2/2

nominalnews.com

Should We Reverse Corporate Tax Cuts?

With corporate profits at record highs, corporate taxes are back under the spotlight. But who actually benefited from the 2017 corporate tax cuts?

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 16/09/2026

Who benefited the most from Trump's corporate tax cuts in 2017? 87% of the gains accrued to the top 10%. Although the corporate tax cuts did increase economic output, the impact was very unequal. So should these corporate tax cuts be reversed? 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 15/09/2026

Work requirements are a cruel policy First- gut state capacity Second- impose work requirements Lastly- its impossible verify requirement because there’s no state capacity If you want to remove assistance such as SNAP, be open about it. Don’t pass things like work requirements.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 12/09/2026

This allows companies not impacted by the supply shock to increase prices using the fact that everyone thinks prices are going up! 3/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 12/09/2026

The basic argument is that if people think prices will increase (for example, via the news), they are less likely to be “choosy” with purchases and accept higher prices. 2/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 12/09/2026

A common argument against hiking interest rates is that you don’t hike into a supply shock. The issue is that this is not necessarily a good approach. Here is a paper that shows how supply shocks during the pandemic passed-through into overall inflation via what people thought inflation will be 1/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 11/09/2026

To understand the trajectory of inflation and interest rates, we need to think it through with a model. I work through my assumptions in the model and why it points to a hike in interest rates

nominalnews.com

US August Inflation Data and Why the Fed Should Hike

Recent data releases suggest inflation remains elevated meaning an interest rate hike may be in order.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 11/09/2026

If you want to get some background on inflation and how economists model it - I have an inflation primer ready - www.nominalnews.com/... 2/2

nominalnews.com

Inflation – a Short Primer

How staggered pricing causes inflation, even without money.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 11/09/2026

Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in higher than expected at 0.4% month-over-month (3.4% year-over-year) with Core CPI (ex-energy, ex-food) at 0.3% month-over-month (2.4%). I think a hike is the now the obvious and good decision. 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 10/09/2026

A post from February of this year by Scott Bessent praising that mortgages fell below 6%. They're currently at over 7%. This shows how government policy unfortunately matters - from about April we've had predominantly inefficient and inflationary policies being enacted.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 10/09/2026

Not much to discuss here - a policy of tariffs, war and anti-immigration will get you exactly what we're seeing. These are all policy choices by the US government. Don't blame the Federal Reserve or AI on this.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 10/09/2026

And some are saying that the US increasing interest rates would be a disastrously wrong decision….

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 08/09/2026

To explain - there are allegations that an algorithm pulled the solution data from Alpöge and Buckmaster, and then published the proof ahead of them Katsuyama had his stock buy orders front-run by an algorithm.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 08/09/2026

Did mathematics just have its Brad Katsuyama moment?

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 05/09/2026

I might sound like a broken record, but economists also said that reducing immigration will not help native-born. Quite the contrary, given the recent strength in the economy, this unemployment rate probably would have been quite a bit lower with a more pro-immigration stance.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 04/09/2026

However, it does not appear to be the case, and thus the Federal Reserve should operate under the assumption the shock is here to stay. If you’ll hike rates later this year anyway, then it’s probably better to do it this September. Just my 2 cents. 3/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 04/09/2026

2. If the oil shock was knowingly transitory (i.e. will end in the next 3 months for example), then perhaps an interest rate hike is not warranted. 2/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 04/09/2026

I see the argument that we do not need to hike rates, because the main shock to inflation is higher oil prices, which rates do not affect. 1. I think tariffs+immigration enforcement also push inflation higher. 1/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 02/09/2026

It has been widely criticized, which is good to see. Every institution can be abused - but it’s good to see the wider academic community step in and properly defend it. If you’d like to read more www.nominalnews.com/... 3/3

nominalnews.com

Introducing Myself; Plus A Concerning Publication at The US Census Bureau

A quick introduction after nearly four years of Nominal News and how a recent report on the US Census website got economists concerned.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 02/09/2026

A report called “Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis” allegedly written by the America First Policy Institute (a think tank linked to the Trump administration), was posted on the US Census Bureau’s website. The report has no authors and poor rigor. 2/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 02/09/2026

If you want to lie with statistics, it’s relatively easy - hide your data, hide your assumptions/methods. But that’s often easy to spot. So what else could you do? Defer to authority. And that attempt recently happened at the US Census Bureau. 1/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 02/09/2026

I recently went full-time with my newsletter Nominal News, so it makes sense to introduce myself - my name is Pawel! If you're interested in academic-based economics, policy analysis and social issues, follow my profile here or on Substack!

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 01/09/2026

After Warsh’s comments, many commentators said - ‘we don’t need to raise rates, the markets are doing it themselves’ when yields rose. I guess the government’s actions in Iran are also doing it, so Warsh really doesn’t need to do anything.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 31/08/2026

Here is a simple chart that shows us why inflation is high - the yellow line (core goods) is all current Trump/Bessent/Lutnick tariff policy. Core goods are usually deflationary (prices actually falling). Now they’re not 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 28/08/2026

Maybe this is me going crazy - Warsh said ‘hike’ three times in his speech and right at the beginning. If this isn't forward guidance then what is :D

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 28/08/2026

This is helpful. One other angle (though it's also iffy from a data angle) is also adjusting for productivity growth. In theory, that should be constant, but my prior would be that wages have not kept up with inflation+productivity

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 28/08/2026

The US Treasury recently announced increased bond buybacks. It's a policy that is unlikely to accomplish to anything - you'd need to tackle the real causes of inflation to reduce yields. 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 26/08/2026

Haven’t meme’d in a while - this summarizes my latest article

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