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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 27/09/2026

And the UK doing the same - this is predominantly a transfer to homeowners. If that's something you want, then go ahead with this policy. But I don't think that's the desired goal.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 26/09/2026

As is often the case, this policy sounds like it help first time homebuyers, but it will predominantly serve as a benefit to home sellers.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 24/09/2026

This is a great example of what a good economist should do. Acemoglu clearly states that because of current tax policies, a wealth tax may be a good policy solution, even though it would not be optimal in a perfect world. 1/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 24/09/2026

A summary of the research on AI and junior employees - businesses will need to adapt how they train their staff.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 23/09/2026

I've seen far more economists cover Mamdani’s grocery stores (which do not exist yet) than these gas stations (which do exist). In terms of ‘unfair subsidy’, I think one of these is a much bigger issue.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 18/09/2026

Trump’s TCJA corporate tax cuts enacted in 2017 resulted in an increase in economic activity, but the benefits predominantly accrued to the top 10% of the income distribution. 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 17/09/2026

If you want to get a sense where interest rates are heading, here is my conditional forecast from my write-up - it depends on what the government does.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 16/09/2026

“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy” - this was deleted from the statement. This is very hawkish. Inflation is not just energy shocks.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 16/09/2026

Here is the statement announcing the interest rate hike, and the changes to the prior statement in July:

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 16/09/2026

Who benefited the most from Trump's corporate tax cuts in 2017? 87% of the gains accrued to the top 10%. Although the corporate tax cuts did increase economic output, the impact was very unequal. So should these corporate tax cuts be reversed? 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 15/09/2026

Work requirements are a cruel policy First- gut state capacity Second- impose work requirements Lastly- its impossible verify requirement because there’s no state capacity If you want to remove assistance such as SNAP, be open about it. Don’t pass things like work requirements.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 12/09/2026

A common argument against hiking interest rates is that you don’t hike into a supply shock. The issue is that this is not necessarily a good approach. Here is a paper that shows how supply shocks during the pandemic passed-through into overall inflation via what people thought inflation will be 1/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 11/09/2026

To understand the trajectory of inflation and interest rates, we need to think it through with a model. I work through my assumptions in the model and why it points to a hike in interest rates

nominalnews.com

US August Inflation Data and Why the Fed Should Hike

Recent data releases suggest inflation remains elevated meaning an interest rate hike may be in order.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 11/09/2026

Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in higher than expected at 0.4% month-over-month (3.4% year-over-year) with Core CPI (ex-energy, ex-food) at 0.3% month-over-month (2.4%). I think a hike is the now the obvious and good decision. 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 10/09/2026

A post from February of this year by Scott Bessent praising that mortgages fell below 6%. They're currently at over 7%. This shows how government policy unfortunately matters - from about April we've had predominantly inefficient and inflationary policies being enacted.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 10/09/2026

Not much to discuss here - a policy of tariffs, war and anti-immigration will get you exactly what we're seeing. These are all policy choices by the US government. Don't blame the Federal Reserve or AI on this.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 10/09/2026

And some are saying that the US increasing interest rates would be a disastrously wrong decision….

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 08/09/2026

Did mathematics just have its Brad Katsuyama moment?

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 05/09/2026

I might sound like a broken record, but economists also said that reducing immigration will not help native-born. Quite the contrary, given the recent strength in the economy, this unemployment rate probably would have been quite a bit lower with a more pro-immigration stance.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 04/09/2026

I see the argument that we do not need to hike rates, because the main shock to inflation is higher oil prices, which rates do not affect. 1. I think tariffs+immigration enforcement also push inflation higher. 1/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 02/09/2026

If you want to lie with statistics, it’s relatively easy - hide your data, hide your assumptions/methods. But that’s often easy to spot. So what else could you do? Defer to authority. And that attempt recently happened at the US Census Bureau. 1/3

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 02/09/2026

I recently went full-time with my newsletter Nominal News, so it makes sense to introduce myself - my name is Pawel! If you're interested in academic-based economics, policy analysis and social issues, follow my profile here or on Substack!

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 01/09/2026

After Warsh’s comments, many commentators said - ‘we don’t need to raise rates, the markets are doing it themselves’ when yields rose. I guess the government’s actions in Iran are also doing it, so Warsh really doesn’t need to do anything.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 31/08/2026

Here is a simple chart that shows us why inflation is high - the yellow line (core goods) is all current Trump/Bessent/Lutnick tariff policy. Core goods are usually deflationary (prices actually falling). Now they’re not 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 28/08/2026

Maybe this is me going crazy - Warsh said ‘hike’ three times in his speech and right at the beginning. If this isn't forward guidance then what is :D

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 28/08/2026

The US Treasury recently announced increased bond buybacks. It's a policy that is unlikely to accomplish to anything - you'd need to tackle the real causes of inflation to reduce yields. 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 26/08/2026

Haven’t meme’d in a while - this summarizes my latest article

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 26/08/2026

Social media is now being flooded with comments saying how H-1B immigrants don’t offer any value, undercut US workers and steal US jobs. It’s important to know what H-1B immigrants actually do to the US economy:

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 26/08/2026

Economic immigration needs to be viewed not as tackling a labor or skill shortage in a country, but rather a preference shortage. Locals have preferences - for example, to work near where they grow up. An immigrant does not necessarily have that preference. 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 25/08/2026

In the midst of election season, headlines bombard us with poll data - who’s leading, underperforming etc Most of these headlines misinterpret what polls are. Find out the common polling interpretation mistakes and how I quickly evaluate the state of an election 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 25/08/2026

Here's a question to economists: NYC will allow all year outdoor dining. This means restaurants will be able to sit more customers. Will landlords increase rent on locations that have outdoor dining as an option? Or will all the extra profit flow to the restaurant owners?

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 25/08/2026

What happens when you restrict H-1B immigration? It's quite costly:

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 25/08/2026

A complete misunderstanding of how things work. Of course a corporation would prefer Americans - no extra costs, no immigration risk, knowledge of local markets. Immigrants create jobs, not take them away from Americans.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 24/08/2026

nominalnews.com

Interpreting Election Polls

Why focusing on polling margins leads us astray and how we should interpret elections polls.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 22/08/2026

Another costly policy. That's why we need more economics education. We view capital investments into a country as great, but human capital investments as a negative. Make it make sense.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 22/08/2026

Work requirements sound “good” in theory, but fail in practice. The people who fail “work requirements” do so via not being able to file the complex paperwork. These people are also the most vulnerable. This is an economics result that has been replicated many times. 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 21/08/2026

We’ve been told many times (even by a few economists) that the foreign country will pay the tariff. So why are we removing the tariffs on beef?

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 19/08/2026

My only thought on designing policies around data centers is that taxation is always superior to bans. Bans are easier to bypass (political favoritism, exceptions etc)

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 19/08/2026

Unemployment insurance is a policy that is often misrepresented. Find out how it helps boosts economic growth in our article today

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 12/08/2026

July US inflation data came out today morning - although it was in line with market expectations, it is still far from good

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 12/08/2026

A summary of our latest piece covering the difference between what economists do (causation) and what many think we do (prediction): 1/2

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 11/08/2026

Because I keep seeing bad interpretation of polling, here is a January poll for the Democratic primary for Mayor in NYC. Cuomo had a 38 point lead, while the final outcome was a 13 point lead for Mamdani. Was this poll wrong?

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 11/08/2026

These types of headlines are common - but they’re fundamentally wrong. Economists (especially the academic kind) almost never make ‘predictions’ in a professional capacity.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 05/08/2026

PSA: Please do not use margins from pre-election polls as any form of benchmark! Apolling margin is not predictive of elections, nor does it tell us whether someone did well. I’m currently seeing this with the Dem Michigan Primary.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 01/08/2026

The new proposal to charge foreign students $100,000 to be allowed to work in the US would be very economically costly for the US. Economic research shows us why this is the case.

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Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 30/07/2026

Final thoughts on Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh press conference: It’s not about whether we increase rates by 25bps or we don’t. The impact either way will be relatively minor. 1/2

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