iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 03/10/2026

Here is a Schrodinger's chart - some will say that wage growth has been very good in the US since 1967 by looking at the trend. At the same time, they do not talk about that real output per capita jumped by almost 200%, while wages grew by 47%.

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 03/10/2026

One of the worst economic misunderstandings is believing work requirements get people to work. This policy gets rolled out all the time as it sounds good. But the fact is that it accomplishes nothing of what SHS says - all it does is it kicks off the most vulnerable by adding bureaucracy.

020

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 02/10/2026

I think we're bumping into a real issue with genAI in which it may slow (or even halt) innovation. An indie game developer showed a demo of their game Needle in a Haystack. You would typically do that to gauge interest and whether you should commit more time. It got lots of hype.

100

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 02/10/2026

Unfortunately, this is likely driven by the misunderstanding of what college does. The college wage premium remains large and colleges do increase skills. Colleges aren't just signalling and what one acquires there cannot easily be replaced with AI.

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 01/10/2026

The US job market appears to have slightly turned the corner. Of course, it'll be dependent on the situation, but switching jobs right now might be less risky. With rising rates, this strong job market won't last too long however.

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 27/09/2026

And the UK doing the same - this is predominantly a transfer to homeowners. If that's something you want, then go ahead with this policy. But I don't think that's the desired goal.

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 26/09/2026

As is often the case, this policy sounds like it help first time homebuyers, but it will predominantly serve as a benefit to home sellers.

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 24/09/2026

This is a great example of what a good economist should do. Acemoglu clearly states that because of current tax policies, a wealth tax may be a good policy solution, even though it would not be optimal in a perfect world. 1/3

130

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 24/09/2026

A summary of the research on AI and junior employees - businesses will need to adapt how they train their staff.

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 23/09/2026

I've seen far more economists cover Mamdani’s grocery stores (which do not exist yet) than these gas stations (which do exist). In terms of ‘unfair subsidy’, I think one of these is a much bigger issue.

111

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 18/09/2026

But is restoring the corporate tax rate the only solution or could we balance the tax cuts with a raise in different taxes on the beneficiaries of the corporate tax cut? www.nominalnews.com/... 2/2

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 18/09/2026

Trump’s TCJA corporate tax cuts enacted in 2017 resulted in an increase in economic activity, but the benefits predominantly accrued to the top 10% of the income distribution. 1/2

101

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 17/09/2026

If you want to get a sense where interest rates are heading, here is my conditional forecast from my write-up - it depends on what the government does.

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 16/09/2026

Here is the statement announcing the interest rate hike, and the changes to the prior statement in July:

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 16/09/2026

Who benefited the most from Trump's corporate tax cuts in 2017? 87% of the gains accrued to the top 10%. Although the corporate tax cuts did increase economic output, the impact was very unequal. So should these corporate tax cuts be reversed? 1/2

100

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 15/09/2026

Work requirements are a cruel policy First- gut state capacity Second- impose work requirements Lastly- its impossible verify requirement because there’s no state capacity If you want to remove assistance such as SNAP, be open about it. Don’t pass things like work requirements.

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 12/09/2026

A common argument against hiking interest rates is that you don’t hike into a supply shock. The issue is that this is not necessarily a good approach. Here is a paper that shows how supply shocks during the pandemic passed-through into overall inflation via what people thought inflation will be 1/3

121

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 10/09/2026

A post from February of this year by Scott Bessent praising that mortgages fell below 6%. They're currently at over 7%. This shows how government policy unfortunately matters - from about April we've had predominantly inefficient and inflationary policies being enacted.

030

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 10/09/2026

Not much to discuss here - a policy of tariffs, war and anti-immigration will get you exactly what we're seeing. These are all policy choices by the US government. Don't blame the Federal Reserve or AI on this.

010

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 10/09/2026

And some are saying that the US increasing interest rates would be a disastrously wrong decision….

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 05/09/2026

I might sound like a broken record, but economists also said that reducing immigration will not help native-born. Quite the contrary, given the recent strength in the economy, this unemployment rate probably would have been quite a bit lower with a more pro-immigration stance.

010

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 01/09/2026

After Warsh’s comments, many commentators said - ‘we don’t need to raise rates, the markets are doing it themselves’ when yields rose. I guess the government’s actions in Iran are also doing it, so Warsh really doesn’t need to do anything.

010

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 31/08/2026

Here is a simple chart that shows us why inflation is high - the yellow line (core goods) is all current Trump/Bessent/Lutnick tariff policy. Core goods are usually deflationary (prices actually falling). Now they’re not 1/2

110

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 28/08/2026

Maybe this is me going crazy - Warsh said ‘hike’ three times in his speech and right at the beginning. If this isn't forward guidance then what is :D

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 28/08/2026

The US Treasury recently announced increased bond buybacks. It's a policy that is unlikely to accomplish to anything - you'd need to tackle the real causes of inflation to reduce yields. 1/2

100

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 26/08/2026

Haven’t meme’d in a while - this summarizes my latest article

120

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 26/08/2026

Social media is now being flooded with comments saying how H-1B immigrants don’t offer any value, undercut US workers and steal US jobs. It’s important to know what H-1B immigrants actually do to the US economy:

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 25/08/2026

In the midst of election season, headlines bombard us with poll data - who’s leading, underperforming etc Most of these headlines misinterpret what polls are. Find out the common polling interpretation mistakes and how I quickly evaluate the state of an election 1/2

110

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 25/08/2026

What happens when you restrict H-1B immigration? It's quite costly:

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 25/08/2026

A complete misunderstanding of how things work. Of course a corporation would prefer Americans - no extra costs, no immigration risk, knowledge of local markets. Immigrants create jobs, not take them away from Americans.

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 22/08/2026

Another costly policy. That's why we need more economics education. We view capital investments into a country as great, but human capital investments as a negative. Make it make sense.

0114

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 21/08/2026

We’ve been told many times (even by a few economists) that the foreign country will pay the tariff. So why are we removing the tariffs on beef?

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 19/08/2026

Unemployment insurance is a policy that is often misrepresented. Find out how it helps boosts economic growth in our article today

1164

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 12/08/2026

July US inflation data came out today morning - although it was in line with market expectations, it is still far from good

010

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 12/08/2026

A summary of our latest piece covering the difference between what economists do (causation) and what many think we do (prediction): 1/2

200

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 11/08/2026

Because I keep seeing bad interpretation of polling, here is a January poll for the Democratic primary for Mayor in NYC. Cuomo had a 38 point lead, while the final outcome was a 13 point lead for Mamdani. Was this poll wrong?

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 11/08/2026

These types of headlines are common - but they’re fundamentally wrong. Economists (especially the academic kind) almost never make ‘predictions’ in a professional capacity.

100

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 01/08/2026

The new proposal to charge foreign students $100,000 to be allowed to work in the US would be very economically costly for the US. Economic research shows us why this is the case.

010

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 29/07/2026

Here is my take of the Warsh press conference - there were lots of contradictory statements, which raise concerns about how Warsh would handle a significant economic crisis.

130

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 29/07/2026

The changes in the FOMC statement between June and today:

000

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 27/07/2026

This should not be a surprise. Rewards credit cards are akin to gambling houses - the rewards are transfers between all payers (including cash payers), while the house (credit cards + banks) get to take a bigger cut.

001

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 22/07/2026

Here's a question to economists - what in the US market structure prevents the US from having a payment system like Brazil’s Pix, where fees are near zero (unlike US credit cards and other systems)

1148

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 16/07/2026

Good to see more coverage (by Justin Wolfers) of the Trump Accounts and that they are an inherently a flawed policy. It will only exacerbate inequality and not help families in need. We have covered the economic research that shows this in one of our previous articles: 1/2

111

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 16/07/2026

You may often see comments saying ‘inflation is just too much printed money’. If that were the case, we would have plenty of research showing this. However, most research shows that the the supply of money does not lead inflation, but, rather, it's the other way around. 1/2

100

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 15/07/2026

But what's more interesting- if your competitors experience shipping delays, but you don't rely on shipping, you will still increase prices.The magnitude of this effect is quite large- in the pandemic, these strategic interactions were a significant driver of price increases. 3/4

100

Nominal News (Pawel Langer) @nominalnews.com · 02/07/2026

McCloskey on why economics doesn’t have a textbook that can be recommended for people to learn economics I agree- the reason is that economics is a method of formal thinking. That’s why textbooks that focus on models or ideas, and not on how to build the model, become obsolete.

010