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Just seeing the Big Ten statement with video, and they are clearly ahead of NBC's official stadium clock in the analysis replay. But only ahead by 3 or 4 frames so like 0.1 seconds, not 0.8 like I thought. x.com/bigten/statu... If I'm president, I'm creating NTSB for this kinda stuff.

replay.game

000

I can't find a clip, and I can't recall whether the ref said "add one second" or "set the game clock to 9." But they almost always say the latter. So the stadium clock messed up. THAT SAID the stadium clock should be the definitive clock. It's what the players/coaches/refs see!

200

The play in question lasted around 8.5 seconds, well outside the stadium clock's 8.1 seconds but well within Hawkeye's (and the ref's ordered) 9.0 seconds. I am certain this is what happened.

100

I'm so right about this and no one is getting it. Ref ordered clocks to 9. The video review Hawkeye was set to 9.0. The stadium clock though was at 7.1 and they just added a second: it looks like 9, but was actually 8.1. THAT'S the discrepancy. They should show tenths on the stadium clock.

Michigan should still be docked the win for that embarrassing field storm.

040

Bryce Underwood, Michigan beat Western Michigan on last-second Hail Mary | Big Ten on NBC Sports

For true savants, watch this better clip (I can't download) and use period key to advance single frames, 30 frames per second. Play is clearly over 0.5s after 0:00, which we know is actually 0.4-0.5s remaining due 9s goof. www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yk6...

youtube.com

YouTube video by NBC Sports

140

Here's the video. The clock was set to 9s by the refs, but it instantly goes to 8s on snap. So you've got to mentally add a second to whatever the game clock is showing. I've added a 9s countdown on snap. The vid cuts off early but you get the idea. Refs probably right to add a play, sadly.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

I can't find a video of the 2nd to last play of the Michigan game. But watching live, the clock went from 9s to 8s almost immediately on snap, despite the clock having been set to 9s on ref's order. As much as I hate to say this, I think there actually was a sync issue.

030

Always a "patchwork" of laws, never a beautiful mosaic.

In a statement, Kalshi said that it offered safeguards for customers and that its business model gave people a real opportunity to win money. The company has a “national framework of regulation, not a state-by-state patchwork,” the statement said, adding that it was “overly aggressive for states to try to shut down a federally licensed exchange.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/27/technology/prediction-markets-states-kalshi-polymarket-lawsuits.html

020

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

It was my kid (seriously) and I will ask them tonight.

1280

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

The job ad is vague per policy, but this would be on the Safety, Operations, and Traffic Engineering team. See here for the kind of work we do. vtrc.virginia.gov/about/vtrc-t...

vtrc.virginia.gov

Safety, Operations, and Traffic Engineering | Virginia Transportation Research Council

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Virginia Transportation Research Council is hiring a research scientist in Charlottesville. This position is the perfect balance of research and real-world applications, with the stability of state government. And no cubicles! etgi.fa.us8.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...

etgi.fa.us8.oraclecloud.com

02378 - Research Scientist

At the Virginia Transportation Research Council (VTRC), our research scientists work closely with VDOT to keep people moving through the Commonwealth of Virginia. As part of the VTRC Safety, Operation...

100

Increasingly convinced that some prediction markets are triple cheeseburgers which exist only to let regulators feel better about allowing the double cheeseburger.

From "Dave's Way" by Dave Thomas founder of Wendy's, p. 118, can be borrowed here: https://archive.org/details/daveswaynewappro00thom

050

On the cockfighting, they will probably ban unlawful activity markets, but say nothing about activity that is unlawful here but lawful elsewhere. They would seem to allow these, since they carve out assassinations which are obviously illegal here.

000

Another thing that I haven't seen mentioned: CFTC won't allow betting on slot machines, but extremely short duration financial markets are effectively random. Kalshi has 15-minute up-down crypto markets. Shorten to 5-seconds, and it's a slot machine legal everywhere, industry's ultimate goal.

111

It's full of weird little nuggets: you can't bet on someone playing a slot machine, but you CAN bet on someone playing poker because that has a skill element. They also have the broadest argument for "economic value" in history, to include single game NBA player point totals.

"In short, to take just one example, the price discovery value of event contracts on how many points a basketball player will score in a game depends on more than whether the event contracts can be used to hedge the purchase price of a ticket to the game. In some circumstances, the prices of those contracts could also, along with other information including the prices of many other event contracts, be factored into models used for commercial forecasting or audience-demand analysis, which are economic questions."

From: https://www.regulations.gov/document/CFTC-2026-1189-0001

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

I wrote Stop Predatory Gambling's comment on the CFTC's prediction market NPRM. CFTC rules could allow betting on: 1. All "mention" markets 2. Illegal foreign activity, e.g. cockfighting 3. Anything for up to 100 days (while under review) 4. Anything popular enough to have a foreign-hosted market

131

The safety analysis in the Waymo / taxi / Uber-Lyft comparison report has been removed. Appears to be related to the serious injury / death crashes, which was the only data that made Waymo look bad. static1.squarespace.com/static/5e713...

"As of July 23, 2026, we have temporarily removed our safety analysis
from this report, as well as relevant references to the analysis
throughout the report (denoted in-text by a reference to this section).
We were made aware of data discrepancies between City agency
data for New York City for-hire vehicle crashes with serious injuries
or deaths, as well as City agency data definitions related to such
crashes. We are working to resolve these discrepancies and ensure
our findings properly represent the data and the driving records of
New York City for-hire vehicle drivers and Waymo vehicles. Other
than this section, the remainder of our report remains unchanged."

022

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Strike my earlier comment about taxi/TNC drivers looking good. The injury crash rate is not good for them.

020

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Back to the Waymo vs. NYC taxi vs. Uber/Lyft (TNCs) report: this is the money chart. Waymo's injury crash rate looking very good when there is adequate data. The report's framing is way off and misleading in my opinion.

Figure 2 from here: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e71380706dc865d40a6f93c/t/6a5a8f5f6ff6a5473092ee00/1784319839886/How+Would+For-Hire+AVs+Impact+NYC_SSTRP_Open+Plans.pdf

Chart recreates data from Table 2.

010

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Fatal and serious injury crashes are rare -- Waymo has only seen 3 in 220 million miles. That's why we use the crash / injury crash / airbag surrogates.

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Glad to see TNC data compared to robotaxis. This is the swap, and the correct benchmark right now. TNC drivers look relatively good. But to be clear, the report found Waymo had lower injury crash rates, and NON-SIGNIFICANT differences in fatal / serious injuries. Authors (and media) are misleading.

Quote reads: " Initial data shows that Waymo vehicles are
involved in fewer injury-causing crashes overall,
but have a significantly higher rate of crashes
with a serious injury or fatality than the existing
New York City for-hire fleet. "

But the data shows non-significant differences, i.e. not statistically significant for fatal and serious injuries. There's just not enough data to make that determination yet.

Figure 1 from the report here: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e71380706dc865d40a6f93c/t/6a5a8f5f6ff6a5473092ee00/1784319839886/How+Would+For-Hire+AVs+Impact+NYC_SSTRP_Open+Plans.pdf?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Massive error bars, these findings are not statistically significant despite authors' comments and media coverage.

240

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

How are Waymos driving into flood waters in Austin? I get that a flat pool of water can look like a road to their sensors. But if they are mapping the entire environment to the cm level, do they not notice the road surface is 10cm higher than it was 2 hours ago?

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Listening to an AV America forum, and apparently Waymos in Austin passed school buses with stop arm up 26 times. That's 10x what I'd assumed.

Oh The Urbanity! @ohtheurbanity.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

Reposted by Noah Goodall

Medieval city centres are nice and all, but they don’t feel relatable to lots of people in North America. I want to see more stories and examples from European suburbs like this.

1245460

Reposted by Noah Goodall

Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

See also: litigation finance, a thing a lot of people are convinced is evil despite it is basically the only way to go up against someone (corporation, government) who is so massively more well-resourced than you to the point that contingency fees are not a viable way to proceed

1725

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

NHTSA needs to do 2 things yesterday: 1. ADS (L4-5) mileage or some kind of exposure data. They refuse to, strawmanning about a "scorecard" like what's NCAP then? 2. Rolling, perpetual NDS at around 3000 cars. Ballpark cost of $50mm per year, probably less given tech advances since 2010.

010

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

Safer cars are getting undermined by device usage. NHTSA collects this data by standing on the side of the road and watching drivers stopped at intersections. We really need to reboot a large-scale naturalistic driving study. Phones are VERY different since the the last one ended ten years!

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813788

Figure 5.

NHTSA has to estimate age from visual appearance, hence the massive bins.

150

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 31/05/2026

The original Freedom 250 lineup was basically New York's 95.5 WPLJ playlist in 1989-1991.

051

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

This is the most adorable take. You know those hedge funds, always scared of alternative data like "scraping."

120

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Bob Dancer did professional video poker for years, and described it as a grind, closer to extreme couponing while playing the worlds most boring video game for 12-hour stretches. He lived in terror of a cold streak, despite having multiple other income streams.

000

Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Media loves to portray the professional gambler as a savant, when it's more like living with your parents, flying to a Dallas Homewood Suites to knock on doors for a senate primary and STILL not betting until odds are 91%, all while carrying enormous risk. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/m...

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

If you have to put this disclaimer in a prediction market, maybe don't have the market.

Damaging or disrupting animal enterprises is a federal crime under the The Animal Enterprise Terrorism Act (AETA) of 2006 (18 U.S.C. § 43). Penalties include fines in excess of $1,000,000 and life imprisonment. Polymarket will cooperate fully with law enforcement in any investigation of interference. Polymarket reserves the right to void any market if there is credible evidence of coordinated manipulation or external interference with the gorilla or its enclosure.

From: https://polymarket.com/event/will-little-joe-escape-again

031

This is interesting only to me, but one of the Tesla crashes had a dog running into the road, and the Tesla positioned itself to the left side of the lane to try and avoid striking it. Which combines two examples I used to give for why risk management in an AV is so much harder than "just brake"!

Both are from https://osf.io/preprints/osf/bzkas_v1

I'm curious how often they do remote driving like this, and also what's the per-mile crash rate? Most of what we know of remote ops is from Senator Markey's report, and Tesla's response skipped question 1(f) about latency, so I'd like to know that, too!

020

This is interesting, mainly because Tesla had said they only take control of a vehicle (throttle/brake/steering) as a "last resort" and in both instances there was a Tesla employee in the car, albeit in the front passenger seat per Tesla's policy.

Tesla reports ADS crashes to NHTSA via the Standing General Order. For the Austin robotaxis, they just today unredacted the crash narratives. Most surprising are two instances where the in-vehicle safety monitor asked for a virtual driver, who promptly crashed.

131

Some of these have at least plausible deniability, but Boeing? How is in their business interests to promote road trips?

040

Nothing will ever top politicians' meme coins, but as a bribe, Duffy's road trip is pretty blatant. slate.com/life/2026/05...

Jokes on them: NHTSA takes 3 years to process complex requests.

000

Reminder that CFTC couldn't catch a politician betting on his own market using his real name and bank account. They don't need AI, they need a spreadsheet with an IF/THEN statement.

040

"most prestigious" ... "dimentia"

Those 2,000 requests are just the tip of the iceberg, Howell told ProPublica in an interview. Howell, the executive director of the Oversight Project, estimated that his group had submitted more than 50,000 information requests over the past two years. He described the project as “the most prestigious international investigative operation in the world.”

Among 744 requests that Aamot, Jankowski and Howell submitted to the Department of the Interior over the past year are 161 that seek civil servants’ emails and texts as well as Slack and Microsoft Teams messages that contained terms including “climate change”; “DEI,” or diversity, equity and inclusion; and “GOTV,” an acronym for get out the vote. Many of these FOIAs request the messages of individual employees by name.

NHTSA 2024 FOIA logs: "Jankowski,
Roman
The Daily Signal Records from David Winter, Director, Office of Highway Policy
Information for all sent communications [via the Custodian's
outbox; not received communications] mentioning 'Biden'
AND '25th' OR 'parkinsons' OR 'dimentia' from January 20,
2021 to the present."