iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Noah Goodall

Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

LMFAO the official America.gov AI website uses a Chinese open source model

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

"AI targeting gambling addicts" is a good headline, but baby they've been doing this with spreadsheets since the 70s. AI can scale a bit, but predation is deep in their souls. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/19/b...

nytimes.com

How DraftKings Uses A.I. to Target the Gamblers Likeliest to Lose

Data science helps determine who receives betting incentives, but the company has resisted using similar technology to protect gamblers at risk of addiction.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

I'm so right about this and no one is getting it. Ref ordered clocks to 9. The video review Hawkeye was set to 9.0. The stadium clock though was at 7.1 and they just added a second: it looks like 9, but was actually 8.1. THAT'S the discrepancy. They should show tenths on the stadium clock.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Here's the video. The clock was set to 9s by the refs, but it instantly goes to 8s on snap. So you've got to mentally add a second to whatever the game clock is showing. I've added a 9s countdown on snap. The vid cuts off early but you get the idea. Refs probably right to add a play, sadly.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

I can't find a video of the 2nd to last play of the Michigan game. But watching live, the clock went from 9s to 8s almost immediately on snap, despite the clock having been set to 9s on ref's order. As much as I hate to say this, I think there actually was a sync issue.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Always a "patchwork" of laws, never a beautiful mosaic.

In a statement, Kalshi said that it offered safeguards for customers and that its business model gave people a real opportunity to win money. The company has a “national framework of regulation, not a state-by-state patchwork,” the statement said, adding that it was “overly aggressive for states to try to shut down a federally licensed exchange.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/27/technology/prediction-markets-states-kalshi-polymarket-lawsuits.html

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Virginia Transportation Research Council is hiring a research scientist in Charlottesville. This position is the perfect balance of research and real-world applications, with the stability of state government. And no cubicles! etgi.fa.us8.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...

etgi.fa.us8.oraclecloud.com

02378 - Research Scientist

At the Virginia Transportation Research Council (VTRC), our research scientists work closely with VDOT to keep people moving through the Commonwealth of Virginia. As part of the VTRC Safety, Operation...

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Increasingly convinced that some prediction markets are triple cheeseburgers which exist only to let regulators feel better about allowing the double cheeseburger.

From "Dave's Way" by Dave Thomas founder of Wendy's, p. 118, can be borrowed here: https://archive.org/details/daveswaynewappro00thom

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

I wrote Stop Predatory Gambling's comment on the CFTC's prediction market NPRM. CFTC rules could allow betting on: 1. All "mention" markets 2. Illegal foreign activity, e.g. cockfighting 3. Anything for up to 100 days (while under review) 4. Anything popular enough to have a foreign-hosted market

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

The safety analysis in the Waymo / taxi / Uber-Lyft comparison report has been removed. Appears to be related to the serious injury / death crashes, which was the only data that made Waymo look bad. static1.squarespace.com/static/5e713...

"As of July 23, 2026, we have temporarily removed our safety analysis
from this report, as well as relevant references to the analysis
throughout the report (denoted in-text by a reference to this section).
We were made aware of data discrepancies between City agency
data for New York City for-hire vehicle crashes with serious injuries
or deaths, as well as City agency data definitions related to such
crashes. We are working to resolve these discrepancies and ensure
our findings properly represent the data and the driving records of
New York City for-hire vehicle drivers and Waymo vehicles. Other
than this section, the remainder of our report remains unchanged."

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Back to the Waymo vs. NYC taxi vs. Uber/Lyft (TNCs) report: this is the money chart. Waymo's injury crash rate looking very good when there is adequate data. The report's framing is way off and misleading in my opinion.

Figure 2 from here: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e71380706dc865d40a6f93c/t/6a5a8f5f6ff6a5473092ee00/1784319839886/How+Would+For-Hire+AVs+Impact+NYC_SSTRP_Open+Plans.pdf

Chart recreates data from Table 2.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Glad to see TNC data compared to robotaxis. This is the swap, and the correct benchmark right now. TNC drivers look relatively good. But to be clear, the report found Waymo had lower injury crash rates, and NON-SIGNIFICANT differences in fatal / serious injuries. Authors (and media) are misleading.

Quote reads: " Initial data shows that Waymo vehicles are
involved in fewer injury-causing crashes overall,
but have a significantly higher rate of crashes
with a serious injury or fatality than the existing
New York City for-hire fleet. "

But the data shows non-significant differences, i.e. not statistically significant for fatal and serious injuries. There's just not enough data to make that determination yet.

Figure 1 from the report here: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e71380706dc865d40a6f93c/t/6a5a8f5f6ff6a5473092ee00/1784319839886/How+Would+For-Hire+AVs+Impact+NYC_SSTRP_Open+Plans.pdf?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Massive error bars, these findings are not statistically significant despite authors' comments and media coverage.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

How are Waymos driving into flood waters in Austin? I get that a flat pool of water can look like a road to their sensors. But if they are mapping the entire environment to the cm level, do they not notice the road surface is 10cm higher than it was 2 hours ago?

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Listening to an AV America forum, and apparently Waymos in Austin passed school buses with stop arm up 26 times. That's 10x what I'd assumed.

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Reposted by Noah Goodall

Oh The Urbanity! @ohtheurbanity.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

Medieval city centres are nice and all, but they don’t feel relatable to lots of people in North America. I want to see more stories and examples from European suburbs like this.

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Reposted by Noah Goodall

Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

See also: litigation finance, a thing a lot of people are convinced is evil despite it is basically the only way to go up against someone (corporation, government) who is so massively more well-resourced than you to the point that contingency fees are not a viable way to proceed

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

Safer cars are getting undermined by device usage. NHTSA collects this data by standing on the side of the road and watching drivers stopped at intersections. We really need to reboot a large-scale naturalistic driving study. Phones are VERY different since the the last one ended ten years!

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813788

Figure 5.

NHTSA has to estimate age from visual appearance, hence the massive bins.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 31/05/2026

The original Freedom 250 lineup was basically New York's 95.5 WPLJ playlist in 1989-1991.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

This is the most adorable take. You know those hedge funds, always scared of alternative data like "scraping."

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Media loves to portray the professional gambler as a savant, when it's more like living with your parents, flying to a Dallas Homewood Suites to knock on doors for a senate primary and STILL not betting until odds are 91%, all while carrying enormous risk. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/m...

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

If you have to put this disclaimer in a prediction market, maybe don't have the market.

Damaging or disrupting animal enterprises is a federal crime under the The Animal Enterprise Terrorism Act (AETA) of 2006 (18 U.S.C. § 43). Penalties include fines in excess of $1,000,000 and life imprisonment. Polymarket will cooperate fully with law enforcement in any investigation of interference. Polymarket reserves the right to void any market if there is credible evidence of coordinated manipulation or external interference with the gorilla or its enclosure.

From: https://polymarket.com/event/will-little-joe-escape-again

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

This is interesting only to me, but one of the Tesla crashes had a dog running into the road, and the Tesla positioned itself to the left side of the lane to try and avoid striking it. Which combines two examples I used to give for why risk management in an AV is so much harder than "just brake"!

Both are from https://osf.io/preprints/osf/bzkas_v1

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Tesla reports ADS crashes to NHTSA via the Standing General Order. For the Austin robotaxis, they just today unredacted the crash narratives. Most surprising are two instances where the in-vehicle safety monitor asked for a virtual driver, who promptly crashed.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Nothing will ever top politicians' meme coins, but as a bribe, Duffy's road trip is pretty blatant. slate.com/life/2026/05...

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Reminder that CFTC couldn't catch a politician betting on his own market using his real name and bank account. They don't need AI, they need a spreadsheet with an IF/THEN statement.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

"most prestigious" ... "dimentia"

Those 2,000 requests are just the tip of the iceberg, Howell told ProPublica in an interview. Howell, the executive director of the Oversight Project, estimated that his group had submitted more than 50,000 information requests over the past two years. He described the project as “the most prestigious international investigative operation in the world.”

Among 744 requests that Aamot, Jankowski and Howell submitted to the Department of the Interior over the past year are 161 that seek civil servants’ emails and texts as well as Slack and Microsoft Teams messages that contained terms including “climate change”; “DEI,” or diversity, equity and inclusion; and “GOTV,” an acronym for get out the vote. Many of these FOIAs request the messages of individual employees by name.

NHTSA 2024 FOIA logs: "Jankowski,
Roman
The Daily Signal Records from David Winter, Director, Office of Highway Policy
Information for all sent communications [via the Custodian's
outbox; not received communications] mentioning 'Biden'
AND '25th' OR 'parkinsons' OR 'dimentia' from January 20,
2021 to the present."

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Reminder that federal agencies are not "overwhelmed" with FOIA requests. NHTSA gets 2 per work day. 2! Their budget is $1.6B. I've had one with NHTSA since January for a single document whose existence was all over the news. They stall and ghost and hope you forget. www.reuters.com/business/aut...

USDOT FOIA statistics by agency, available at https://www.foia.gov/data.html

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

I co-authored Stop Predatory Gambling's response to CFTC on prediction market regulations. The full response is here: comments.cftc.gov/Handlers/Pdf... My favorite sections.

The Commission argues that prediction markets allow everyday Americans to hedge
legitimate financial risks. In narrow circumstances, that may be true. But roughly 90% of
prediction market volume flows through sports contracts. Whatever legitimate hedging use
exists at the margins does not justify a regulatory regime built around it. If the hedging
rationale is real, the Commission should be able to name who benefits and how.
When Commission Chairman Michael Selig was asked how a regular person might use
prediction markets for risk management, he said:
“This is a real opportunity for everyday Americans to be able to manage certain risk. I
do view this as something that democratizes access to our derivatives market. Say
somebody has a condition. They want to be able to manage the potential risk of having
a future treatment or medical costs. They can enter into a prediction market and place
a bet on the likelihood of something passing a drug trial.”16
The Chairman is arguing, on the record, that people should bet on drug trials as a means to
pay for treatment. This is shocking, dystopian, and inhumane. Worst of all, it is not even
feasible. Drugs that fail their trials become losing bets, leaving a sick person poorer at the
moment they can least afford it, unable to fund the next treatment. That this is the
Commission’s best argument for everyday hedging demonstrates it is far removed from the
reality of ordinary Americans.

The stock market comparison fails for a simple reason: the stock market is not zero-sum. [continuing through] It is a casino where the house has simply rebranded itself as
another player at the table.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

If you think prediction markets are out of control, please let CFTC know by submitting a comment by Thursday. Citizen input is especially important, as politicians don't have a good sense of public perception. Background: www.cftc.gov/LawRegulatio... Submissions: comments.cftc.gov/PublicCommen...

cftc.gov

2026-05105

[Federal Register Volume 91, Number 50 (Monday, March 16, 2026)][Proposed Rules][Pages 12516-12524]From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov][FR Doc No: 2026-0...

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

An analogy would be the SEC only looking at insider trading of Apple when Tim Cook personally does it in his own account. But that doesn't even hold, because CFTC isn't doing the investigating. It's more like Nasdaq or Fidelity. Unreal.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

*former* federal workers. Like a steel plant closing, laying off 30% of the workforce has political implications.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/22/us/elections/virginia-redistricting-voter-data-election.html

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

"Bettor legally required to tell us his name and address, which matched the candidate. Then we Googled him to confirm." This is literally how all 5 of their cases went down. Kalshi is so lazy.

From Kalshi PR today: " After running its investigation, the surveillance team used internal information obtained from the trader and open source intelligence to confirm that the identity of the trader was the same as the candidate."

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Kalshi bragging about catching a candidate betting $50 on himself to win a primary. But they have know-your-customer rules! The algo is literally IF bettor_name = candidate_name THEN flag. They seem unable to catch staff, family, friends who are surely trading. "Over a dozen" not even 20, please.

https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-political-insider-trading-enforcement-update

https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-trading-violation-enforcement-cases

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

This is a pretty comprehensive answer as to why ped deaths are increasing IMO. The smartphone / vehicle-screen issue is probably the easiest to address, and we REALLY need more data on this. The big NHTSA naturalistic driving study ended in 2016; phones have gotten much more distracting since then!

What are the biggest reasons pedestrian deaths have risen in the US?

After digging into that question for years, I don’t think there is a smoking gun. The US situation is a perfect storm, with high-speed arterials, distraction from phones, and big SUVs. In Europe, roadways are much slower, which provides a level of protection. If you have a big SUV on a street where you’re driving 15 miles per hour and you hit someone, they’re not going to die. The same goes if you’re driving 15 mph and using a smartphone when you strike someone. But in the US, we don’t have those kinds of safeguards because our roads are faster.

Also, there is a lot of evidence pointing to suburbanization of poverty being an important factor. Historically, poverty in the US was centralized in the urban core, but over the last couple of decades it has expanded to the suburbs, where around half of all poor people now live. But many suburbs are not built for walking, biking and public transportation; they’re built assuming everybody is going to drive. So now you have lower-income populations living there who might not have motor vehicles. They need to walk, and they’re doing it in a suburban setting that is not designed to accommodate them.

From: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-14/what-s-really-driving-the-pedestrian-safety-crisis-in-us-cities

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

NTSB's research division hasn't published anything in 3.5 years. Are they still active? I'm not being flippant - this is a dream job. www.ntsb.gov/safety/safet...

ntsb.gov

Safety Studies and Special Reports

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

VDOT is hiring an Assistant Division Administrator for Planning and Performance in VDOT’s Traffic Operations Division. This role is directly above the CAV Program Manager in the org chart, and is heavily involved on automated driving systems. etgi.fa.us8.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...

etgi.fa.us8.oraclecloud.com

01031 - Assistant State Engineer Traffic

What drives you? Whether it's knowing the work you do makes a difference, having a great work/life balance, working on exciting and challenging projects, leading innovation, and championing change or ...

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

All these are going to age so badly once we realize prediction markets are the cigarettes of the 2020s.

Stephanie Cutter
@stefcutter
Excited to advise
@Kalshi
as they continue to dominate the prediction market space. They're one of the fastest growing companies in the US — and one of the rare tech platforms that take a regulatory first approach.

From: https://x.com/stefcutter/status/2039791449554719031

From wikipedia: Stephanie Cutter (born October 22, 1968) is an American communications and political consultant. She served as an advisor to President Barack Obama, President Bill Clinton, First Lady Michelle Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris.[1] She previously worked in campaign and communications roles for other prominent Democrats including Ted Kennedy and John Kerry.[2]

In 2013, she co-founded Precision Strategies, a political consulting firm, with fellow Obama campaign alumni Jen O'Malley Dillon and Teddy Goff. During the 2020 election, she was producer of the all-virtual Democratic National Convention, and following Joe Biden's victory, she was tapped to act as producer of the 2021 inauguration, which included mostly virtual festivities.[3]

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

NHTSA's 2025 fatal crash data shows another big drop. Great news, but the continuing story is that we hit that per-mile rate back in 2011. 15 years of tech and we're flat, while every other developed country is stacking gains.

Chart showing fatal crash counts and per-mile rates from 1995 to 2025, recreated from NHTSA data.

https://ourworldindata.org/britain-safest-roads-history

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Reposted by Noah Goodall

John Berry @aniccia.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Big robot outage today in Wuhan. Talk of system/fleetwide hard failure, ie system crash, many robots stopped in place/lane, some got crashed into, many ppl stranded. Prob fewer robots but harder failures w worse MRC than Waymo's in SF last Dec. Steep gradient decent to road hazard. Video & news 🧵

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

As we approach tax time, reminder that the Cato Institute AND the Urban Institute say the Trump Accounts are only good for the free money and that people shouldn't contribute due to the 18-year lockup and bizarre tax treatment. It's a way for the wealthy to give $90,000 to their kids' retirement.

Should I personally invest in the account?
Financial experts advise people considering opening a Trump Account to accept the government's $1,000 contribution — money is money, after all — but to think twice about putting in their own money. The reason: Other types of savings plans — such as a 529 plan, a tax-advantaged savings account for education expenses, or a custodial brokerage account, an investment account for a minor managed by an adult — can be more financially advantageous.

"The gift is the biggest part of this. It really is free money," Madeline Brown, a wealth and financial policy expert at the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, D.C., told CBS News.

"It's a nice perk for parents with children who qualified," added Kate Ashford, a wealth management specialist at personal finance company NerdWallet. "But it's not a slam dunk, and it's not going to do as much for you as other accounts."

She cited the accounts' contribution caps and more limited investment tax advantages as drawbacks compared to 529s or custodial brokerage accounts.

(all screenshots from: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-accounts-kids-explained/ )

"The only advantage is your earnings grow tax-free over the years, but you pay the ordinary income tax rate — not, say, a capital gains tax rate," Ashford said.

Adam Michel, director of tax policy studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian public policy research firm, thinks there are better ways to set money aside for children, such as in a 529 or standard IRA account.

"Generally speaking, parents should not put their own money into a Trump Account," he told CBS News. "The primary use case for the accounts is to receive free money from sources like the government or private donations."

For example, Michael and Susan Dell on Tuesday said they would donate a total of $6.25 billion — or $250 apiece — to millions of kids in Trump Accounts.

The Trump Accounts have "many more strings attached and complicated rules that make it not an attractive overall investment vehicle," Michel of the Cato Institute said.

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Reposted by Noah Goodall

Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Lmao the reason this leaked was because he wanted to buy IDEF, a totally illiquid BlackRock fund that trades ~$100k a day, instead of ITA which trades hundred of millions, so he had his brokers call up BlackRock and ask for a direct creation under his name. There’s so many layers of stupidity here.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

Between 6am and 2pm, about 1 out of 10 fatal crashes have a driver with BAC > 0.08 (legally impaired in every state). At 1am on a weeknight, it's 1 out of 2. On weekend nights, it's almost 2 out of 3.

Chart showing percentage of fatal crashes between 2019 and 2023 where the driver with the highest BAC was a) 0.00 or b) greater than or equal to 0.08. Pulled from NHTSA's FARS database.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

NHTSA is hiring technical experts in the Office of Automation Safety. This was posted exactly 6 weeks after Sen. Cantwell pointed out NHTSA had only 4 people in this office regulating a $60B industry. www.youtube.com/live/6bm7f95... www.usajobs.gov/job/861513300

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Reposted by Noah Goodall

John Berry @aniccia.bsky.social · 08/02/2026

A Waymo robot reportedly rearended at: Motel 6, Great Highway, San Francisco It is illegal to stop anywhere on that side of that block. The pole where this appears to have happened has a No Stopping Anytime sign. Waymo's never disclosed an illegal stop in a crash report. OP: reddit.SupergurlKara

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

They reason for Selig's bizarre argument is that they are pushing for unlimited investments in these markets. If sanely capped at $1000 per person, then they are only useful for information, not as a hedge. So he needs a high dollar example, regardless of plausibility.

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Noah Goodall @noahgoodall.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on managing risk. They regulate prediction markets.

“This is a real opportunity for everyday Americans to be able to manage certain risk,” Selig said. “I do view this as something that democratizes access to our derivatives market.”

Here’s the example Selig posed to us:

“Say somebody has a condition. They want to be able to manage the potential risk of having a future treatment or medical costs. They can enter into a prediction market and place a bet on the likelihood of something passing a drug trial.”

From: https://punchbowl.news/article/vault/prediction-markets-cftc-champion/

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Reposted by Noah Goodall

Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

“Marco, we need you to sell 10 million crude deltas today”

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