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nirkaissar.bsky.social

@nirkaissar.bsky.social

nirkaissar.bsky.social @nirkaissar.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

The VIX is misunderstood. It forecasts the degree of S&P 500 price changes, not directionality. When it spiked after Trump's tariff announcement, it signaled big gains or losses are likely to follow, and big gains are what we got. @opinion.bloomberg.com. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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nirkaissar.bsky.social @nirkaissar.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

The measure of a professional stock picker used to be whether they can beat the market. Now they must also beat indexes that mimic their style of stock picking and are probably tracked by a low-cost ETF. My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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nirkaissar.bsky.social @nirkaissar.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

The best protection in a bumpy market is to know your drawdown tolerance: How much pain can you stomach? Diversified portfolios can dip lower than people expect before they recover. My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... .

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nirkaissar.bsky.social @nirkaissar.bsky.social · 08/04/2025

Markets are signaling a slowdown and possible recession, not a crisis. If they're right, history suggests that the worst of the stock market selloff may already be behind us. My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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nirkaissar.bsky.social @nirkaissar.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

The recent US stock market correction was more about Big Tech's future than trade policy. My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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nirkaissar.bsky.social @nirkaissar.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

Wowsers, this US growth stock reversal is moving fast. Here's forward P/E for Russell 1000 Growth/Value back to 1995. Was 2 SD high less than a month ago. Now nearing average.

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nirkaissar.bsky.social @nirkaissar.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Spending cuts, or even the threat of them, could slow the economy and force the Fed to lower rates as Trump wants. Fiscal stimulus has supported monetary tightening since the pandemic. Now it may be the other way around. My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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nirkaissar.bsky.social @nirkaissar.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

While everyone is watching the Mag 7, S&P and Moody's are building businesses that are just as sturdy and profitable as most of the tech giants. And they're doing it with a major lift from the Mag 7. My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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nirkaissar.bsky.social @nirkaissar.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com: Don't look to S&P500 for the impact of tariffs. It's dominated by companies that aren't in the path of tariffs or have the pricing power to pass on higher costs to consumers. An unfazed S&P500 doesn't mean tariffs aren't biting. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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nirkaissar.bsky.social @nirkaissar.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Stock investors should pay more attention to earnings yields and less to interest rates. My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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nirkaissar.bsky.social @nirkaissar.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

My ode to buybacks @opinion.bloomberg.com. Stock investing would be poorer without them. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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nirkaissar.bsky.social @nirkaissar.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

If higher inflation follows deficits or tariffs, companies shouldn't assume consumers will pick up the tab, as McDonald's has discovered. My latest @opinion.bsky.social. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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nirkaissar.bsky.social @nirkaissar.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Berkshire Hathaway's cash allocation is a window into what Warren Buffett thinks about future US stock returns. And the current allocation suggests he's bracing for a slowdown. My latest @opinion.bsky.social. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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