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Dr Nadiah Kristensen

@nadiah.bsky.social
2.4K followers 1.1K following 571 posts

modeller of ecology, evolution, and cooperation | she/her | 🤘 | 🐘 fediscience.org/@nadiah | nadiah.org

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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
This matches my experience that Claude is only useful for modelling work when its outputs pass first through my own understanding, which is also one way to catch its mishallucinations From: www.bostonreview.net/articles/kno...
No one seriously doubted that the arguments underlying the computer calculations were correct; the objection instead hinged on the separation of proof from our old friend understanding, as in this reaction by British mathematician Frank Bonsall: “We cannot possibly achieve what I regard as the essential element of a proof—our own personal understanding—if part of the argument is hidden away in a box.”
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Knuth: "Shock! Shock! I learned yesterday that an open problem I'd been working on for several weeks had just been solved by Claude Opus 4.6 ... What a joy it is to learn not only that my conjecture has a nice solution but also to celebrate this dramatic advance in automatic deduction."
www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Nationally, 11-12% of Australian workers are in a very high-risk psychosocial safety climate. In universities, that jumps to 44%.
stresscafe.net
Census - Stress Cafe
Despite multiple government reviews – including the Australian Universities Accord and a Senate Inquiry – staff wellbeing in the workplace has received little direct attention. In response, the Austra...
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
I got an email celebrating a Faculty wellbeing initiative. Some lovely colleagues have been volunteering to do things like deliver flowers and citrus fruits to the tearooms to lift our spirits.
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
You'd think requiring everyone to agree to the fishing level would protect fish better, but this new paper shows consensus-based voting can lead to worse conservation outcomes when the fishery was already highly exploited. Congratulations to Irina Lerner on her first paper 🎉
conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Voting Systems Influence Conservation Outcomes for International Fisheries
Fishery stocks that range partly or entirely beyond national jurisdictions pose substantial coordination challenges. Regional Fishery Management Organizations (RFMOs) were created to coordinate the s...
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
We need $484 billion/year for nature-based climate solutions by 2030. But how do you convince investors when a single cyclone can erase years of restoration? Jordan Holdorf's new paper shows adaptive timing of investments can make risky projects financially viable.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Adaptive temporal optimization of restoration investments with blue carbon returns and climate risks
This framework provides a tool for conservation scientists to develop adaptive investment plans for restoration projects under climate risk. Using project-specific data, it shows how carbon markets c...
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 26/12/2025
Claude (Opus 4.5) has started citing Grokipedia in its results.
A screenshot of a Claude chat from the phone app with most of the text greyed out. The text at the top indicates Opus 4.5 is being used. The first block of text has a link indicating the content was sourced from Wikipedia. The second block has a link indicating the content was sourced from Grokipedia.
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Shannon McSheffrey @medievalmcsheff.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
I posted this👇 to a claim that genAI is better than Ctl+F to search historical docs. @tristanpalmgren.bsky.social replied with a genAI summary of my document and @bookllyfr.bsky.social asked if it was accurate. It turns out that it did exactly what genAI does: made stuff up & got stuff wrong.🧵
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
I wrote a blog post about a lecture introducing stability in ODE models and their numerical solution. The lecture transcript and code for figures are included. nadiah.org/2025/12/04/m...
nadiah.org
Lecture notes on stability in the dynamics and Euler’s method
This semester, I had the opportunity to do 7 weeks of “interactive lectures” at QUT for MXB261 Modelling and Simulation Science, as well as one guest lecture on evolutionary game theory. In this blog ...
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Charlotte Patterson @charlotterubyp.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
🚨 Excited to share our new research! 🚨 We tackle a big question in conservation: how can we make smarter use of existing surveys to learn about places and species we haven’t yet been able to survey? 🏔️ 🔗 Read the paper here: doi.org/10.1111/2041...
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Kalyani Twyman @kztwyman.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Happy to share that our paper ‘a formal theory of group-level adaptation for obligate eusociality’ (with @andygardner.bsky.social) is now out in @jevbio.bsky.social advances. doi.org/10.1093/jeb/... #OpenAccess #Eusociality #GroupAdaptation #FormalDarwinism
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Awesome, this is the second journal I’ve published in that has since let through egregious AI slop.
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Recently read a superstar outside my field, summarising their previous work modelling institutional change. A quite simple model, but it can capture, e.g., "strategic stability", where groups vote against a change that will benefit them bc it will open the door to future change that harms them.
sciencedirect.com
Institutional change and institutional persistence
In this essay, we provide a simple conceptual framework to elucidate the forces that lead to institutional persistence and change. Our framework is ba…
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Why is altruism more common in nature than spite? This new paper gives a general mathematical explanation: the degree of negative assortment that can be achieved is constrained in a way that positive assortment is not, particularly in unbalanced populations. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Multi panel figure illustrating the following intuition for why group structures favoring altruism might be more common than those favoring spite. It considers the example scenarios with pairs of individuals. When the population is evenly split between 100 actors (altruistic or spiteful) and 100 non-actors, maximum positive assortment produces all same-type pairs (50 pairs actor+actor, 50 pairs actor+nonactor) and maximum negative assortment produces all opposite-type pairs (100 pairs actor+nonactor). Therefore, maximum assortativity produces equally group structures most favorable to altruism and group structures most favorable to spite. However, when actors outnumber non-actors (140 actors, 60 nonactors), positive and negative assortment have asymmetric effects on group structure. Maximum positive assortment still produces all same-type pairs (70 pairs actor+actor, 30 pairs actor+nonactor); however, maximum negative assortment cannot achieve all opposite-type pairs due to the surplus of actors – some same-type pairs (actor–actor) must remain (60 pairs actor+nonactor, 40 pairs actor+actor, ). Therefore, the maximum achievable positive assortment promotes altruism more effectively than the maximum negative assortment promotes spite. A similar asymmetry arises when non-actors outnumber actors (60 actors, 140 nonactors). Maximum positive assortment again produces all same-type pairs (30 pairs actor+actor, 70 pairs actor+nonactor), but maximum negative assortment cannot achieve all opposite-type pairs due to the surplus of non-actors – some same-type pairs (non-actor– non-actor) necessarily remain (60 pairs actor+nonactor, but 40 pairs nonactor+nonactor). Thus, once again, the maximum achievable positive assortment promotes altruism more effectively than the maximum negative assortment promotes spite.
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Analytic solution for the stationary distribution of actions taken in iterated games with implementation errors, and code to automate the solution in SymPy. nadiah.org/2025/11/18/a...
nadiah.org
Analytic solution for the stationary distribution in an iterated game with implementation errors
For the past year, I’ve been working in my spare time through a very interesting paper by Kleshnina et al. (2023). The paper concerns an evolutionary game theory model where individuals play an iterat...
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
I wrote a blog post about an unpublished paper with a surprising result -- unequal sharing can promote cooperation. nadiah.org/2025/06/01/c...
nadiah.org
Cooperation among unequals
In an unpublished paper, Staab et al. (2002) studied the effects of heterogeneity in endowments and productivities on cooperation. They were particularly interested in the effect of allowing players t...
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Quite the opening sentence from the Discussion:- "Repeated interactions alone cannot explain the evolution of one-shot cooperation because they cannot explain the evolution of repeated cooperation." www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Super-additive cooperation - Nature
Models show that human cooperation cannot evolve reliably under repeated interactions or under intergroup competitions, but combining the two mechanisms predicts a distinctive strategy, observed exper...
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
Congratulations to my office-mate, Zach Carter, for making the cover of Nature Ecology & Evolution 🎉
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Watching “Animal Pride” hosted by Queer FoS at QUT
A screen showing a movie. It’s an underwater shot of two Orcas.
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Simon Columbus @simoncolumbus.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
Turns out Alexander Magazinov has a long blog post about these guys (pretty sure it's the same paper mill): forbetterscience.com/2025/07/02/s...
forbetterscience.com
Salesmen of Green Economy Bullshit
“This bullshit is a form of greenwashing, as policymakers might believe that with growing amount of “research” we are making progress. Except we are heading nowhere.” &#8211…
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
The plot thickens! I just found what seems to be the original version of the paper. It wasn’t just AI generated, it was plagiarised. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Ecological networks construction and optimization in the Longdong Loess Plateau: The advantages of self-organizing map and complex networks
Ecological networks (ENs) construction, which is the basis for sustainable regional development, is influenced by the accuracy of source identificatio…
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Check out the graphical abstract for a paper recently published in Ecological Modelling. I have papers published in Ecological Modelling. Never again, I guess.
A diagram titled "Ecological Network Optimisation" with attractive landscapes and networks and very clear AI-generation artifacts.
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
I got a lot out of last semester's Christian Nationalism course, so if you're interested in learning about climate action, direct action, and/or socially aware sci fi, check them out.
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John Lees @johnlees.bacpop.org · 15/08/2025
My PhD student @leonielorenz.bsky.social (with Eva Geissen) has made this nice (free) online course to introduce mathematical modelling for biology: www.ebi.ac.uk/training/onl... Including both molecular and epidemiological examples
ebi.ac.uk
Mathematical modelling for biologists - Modelling concepts in biological research
Mathematical modelling for biologists - Modelling concepts in biological research
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
I'm interested in this online seminar next week. If you want to sign up for this seminar series, which is timed to suit researchers in Asia and Oceania, there's a Google form here -- forms.gle/WSnJS3bNK1b4... -- or you can follow @courtgt.bsky.social for updates.
Online seminar: PopBio on the Dark Side

Joe Wan
National Taiwan University
Thursday 31st July
1 pm AEST UTC+10

**A unified theory of community structure**

Much of our theoretical understanding of biodiversity, including well-established tools such as coexistence theory, focuses on the identity and number of coexisting species. Yet even when species coexist, they may show stark differences in abundance. Though such differences in community structure determine ecosystem function, we lack general quantitative tools linking interactions to abundance patterns in complex communities. In this seminar, I will address this gap by proposing a theoretical framework uniting coexistence with community structure and function.

Beginning with the classic niche–fitness framework and canonical models of small communities, I illustrate simple links between species' fitness (as measured by invasion growth rates) and abundance (or more generally, their contributions to total function). New quantitative tools generalize these relationships to non-additive competitive interactions and high species richness, providing a general way to predict the structure and function of complex communities. This extends foundational theories of coexistence to new questions of community structure and function: a functional coexistence theory which, as I show using plant and microbial case studies, provides tractable insight into both theoretical models and empirical systems.

**Footer**: Add your email to the above google form to receive the zoom link and future seminar announcements!
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PLOS Biology @plosbiology.org · 25/06/2025
From student to researcher, a #career in #science can come with a high price tag. @drcraigmc.bsky.social ‬explores how wealth shapes opportunity in #STEM and proposes structural changes to support #equity and inclusion. 🧪 plos.io/4edGlY4
plos.io
Too poor to science: How wealth determines who succeeds in STEM
From student to researcher, a career in science can come with a high price tag. This Perspective explores how persistent financial barriers limit who can succeed in science, revealing how wealth shape...
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
I keep getting academic spam saying my recent paper has won the 'Best Research Paper Award'. Sucks to be them, though, I have low self-esteem, so I'd never fall for that. Here's the paper that didn't win an award.
sciencedirect.com
Many-strategy games in groups with relatives and the evolution of coordinated cooperation
Humans often cooperate in groups with friends and family members with varying degrees of genetic relatedness. Past kin selection can also be relevant …
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
Binmore's flair 🖤 "the community of spirit [of] modern communitarians and ancient moralists alike actually operates ... we are not bound together by iron shackles of duty and obligation, but by common understandings and conventions that propagate through societies like fungus through a rotten log"
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
@carlo-h.bsky.social has finished OCR-ing the Antarctic Treaty System documents, and he also indulges my dork-nostalgia for games like Myst, excessive adjectives and archaic prose.
An image resembling the text pop-up of an adventure game from the late 1990s. It reads:

*Journal Entry Found*

Dearest Dr Kristensen;

At long last - and not without the eldritch whisper of unseen forces pressing at the frayed edges of my resolve - the Antarctic Documents have yielded to my labours and now lie assembled, murmuring with the strange energies of the austral post. They are ready. There is a sense, almost a tremor in the veil, as though by unearthing them we have disturbed something older than mere time.

[Access the sealed archive]

Yours at the threshold,

Dr C. Hamalainen
Scribe of the Forgotten Latitude
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
biorxiv is down, in case anyone else has revisions due today. Either that or something has happened to my user account :-( On the plus side, guess I get to go home now :-)
A screenshot of the downforeveryoneorjustme website saying biorxiv.org is down.
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
I really enjoyed the session I attended this morning from Brisbane, and there is another on in about 8 hours that you can still enrol to attend.
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Well, that's something new that's never happened to me before -- my blog just got cited in a paper! journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...
journals.plos.org
Extraordinary siblings: Mole rats, marmosets, and Radcliffe-Brown
According to the theory of kin selection, an organism that shows some level of altruism toward her kin – lowering her own fitness, raising that of a close genetic relative – may enjoy an evolutionary ...
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Daniel Cooney @danielcooney1.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
I am really happy to share information about the 2nd Workshop on Modeling and Applications of Evolutionary Game Theory, which will be held virtually on Thursday, May 8, and Friday, May 9. sites.google.com/view/2nd-evo... I enjoyed organizing this workshop with Olivia Chu and Alex McAvoy.
sites.google.com
Workshop on Modeling and Applications of Evolutionary Game Theory
Dates: May 8-9, 2025 Location: Held virtually via Zoom
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Thanks, past self, that's exactly what I was looking for!
A snippet of code. It reads:

# NOTE to future self - commented code is a more elegant way to find attractors and basins
"""
# find the attractors and their full basins of attraction
# ---

idx_2_attractor = {
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
PopBio on the Dark Side Seminar this week - "Predicting Ecosystem Responses to Perturbations via a Geometric Approach" by @akshitg.bsky.social Thursday 1pm AEST, UTC +10 April 24. Our students chose to do a project on this topic this semester, so very interested to hear Akshit's talk!
Advert for the seminar with abstract: How ecosystems respond to environmental perturbations is a fundamental question in ecology, made especially challenging due to the strong coupling between species and their environment. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework for calculating the steady-state response of ecosystems to environmental perturbations in generalized consumer-resource. Our construction is applicable to a wide class of systems, including models with non-reciprocal interactions, cross-feeding, and non-linear growth/consumption rates. Within our framework, all ecological variables are embedded into four distinct vector spaces and ecological interactions are represented by geometric transformations between these spaces. We show that near a steady state, such geometric transformations directly map environmental perturbations - in resource availability and mortality rates - to shifts in niche structure. We illustrate these ideas in a variety of settings including a minimal model for pH-induced toxicity in bacterial denitrification. We end by discussing the biological implications of our framework. In particular, we show that it is extremely difficult to distinguish cooperative and competitive interactions by measuring species' responses to external perturbations.
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Jeff Sharlet @jeffsharlet.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
The student paper at the college at which I teach reports a "tsunami of takedown requests" from international students terrified of being targeted for innocuous, legitimate op-eds & opinions.. Many ask in person--leave no trace in writing. Reminds me of my father's account of studying in the USSR.
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
Carlo Hamalainen has been doing an amazing job using LLMs for OCR on early Antarctic Treaty System documents.
A window with two columns. On the left-hand side is a scanned document. On the right-hand side is the text that was extract. It reads:
---
INTRODUCTION

The time is past now, when a yacht's arrival at an Antarctic base was the cause of marvel and admiration. That era, short though it was, is over - despite the still as yet un-cruised waters of most of Antarctica's coastline.

Yachts and cruise ships, scientists and support personnel, all have contributed in these past few years to the opening up of Antarctica. We must be careful that this increasing familiarity with the Antarctic does not dull the emotions or lessen the respect that did so often transform the lives of earlier visitors, that enticed them back again and again, stimulating others to go, until visitors today must be numbered in their thousands every year.

Because few visitors will be familiar with the Antarctic environment, or the way in which the various nations occupying bases here operate, these guidelines have been drawn up to help you and your crew during your season South.

Above all, an understanding and appreciation of the Antarctic as a very special and fragile environment will go a long way to lessening the ...
---
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Ryan wrote a blog post about our new paper here:
ryanchisholm.com
Nadiah’s new paper on many-strategy games and the evolution of co-ordinated co-operation published in the Journal of Theoretical Biology
Co-operation is pervasive in human societies, but the evolutionary origins of co-operation are still incompletely understood. One prominent hypothesis for explaining co-operation is kin selection, …
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Ben Marwick @benmarwick.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Here is an excellent checklist for reproducible research, this is from the Biometrical Journal, but is relevant for computational scientists in all fields: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/page/journal... Lots of best practices and specific tips for increasing the quality, usefulness & impact of papers 🧪
screenshot of a page of the Checklist for Code and Data Supplements from the Biometrical Journal screenshot of a page of the Checklist for Code and Data Supplements from the Biometrical Journal screenshot of a page of the Checklist for Code and Data Supplements from the Biometrical Journal screenshot of a page of the Checklist for Code and Data Supplements from the Biometrical Journal
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
Today, I attended the International Women in Mathematics Day, jointly hosted between @griffith.edu.au, QUT, and UQ.
A conference room with 7 people standing at the front hosting a Q&A. In the background is a screen that says "group break out sessions".
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
I’m happy to announce our J Theor Biol paper about kin selection in group games in now available online www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
A net plot the dynamics between four strategies: Unconditional Cooperators, Liars, Unconditional Defectors, and Coordinating Cooperators. There are arrows showing the direction of evolution, and dots representing stable and unstable steady states. There’s a lot of info in there, but it’s more intended as decorative in this context.
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Ben Allen @evodynamics.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
Very interested to do a deep dive on this paper by @nadiah.bsky.social et al on nonlinear games in partly-related groups! www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Many-strategy games in groups with relatives and the evolution of coordinated cooperation
Humans often cooperate in groups with friends and family members with varying degrees of genetic relatedness. Past kin selection can also be relevant …
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
Ecologists using Qualitative Modelling often model a species eradication as a press-perturbation. This is obviously wrong, but it's not obvious how wrong it is and when. In the blog post below, I summarise a result that could be used to get started thinking about this question.
nadiah.org
Predicting the effects of species eradication from the community matrix alone
This blog post summarises one of the results I obtained from some work I did back in 2015 with Eve McDonald-Madden at the University of Queensland. She didn’t end up using it for anything, but perhaps...
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
Attending the inaugural PopBio on the Dark Side seminar with Ryan Chisholm at National University of Singapore. It's tricky for those of us on this side of the planet to attend most online ecology seminars. You can sign up for the series here: forms.gle/WSnJS3bNK1b4... Thx @courtgt.bsky.social !
Screenshot of a Zoom meeting of an online talk. The title is "A unified theory of niche assembly and dispersal assembly in community ecology". At the top of the right-hand panel is Courtney Taylor's video stream. She organised the seminar.
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Paul Cohen @paulecohen.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Le Monde reporting that a French scientist traveling to Houston to attend a conference was denied entry to US after a search of his phone & computer revealed messages critical of Trump's science cuts, "which [says CPB] conveyed hatred of Trump & could be qualified as terrorism". Computer confiscated
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 09/03/2025
🎉 After minor revisions, J Theor Biol has accepted our new paper! We explored how to model the evolution of discrete strategies in group games played between relatives, and we applied it to a situation where players could verbally agree to contribute to the public good ("Coordinated Cooperation").
Screenshot of an abstract.

Title: Many-strategy games in groups with relatives and the evolution of coordinated cooperation

Authors: Nadiah P. Kristensen, Ryan A. Chisholm, Hisashi Ohtsuki

Text: Humans often cooperate in groups with friends and family members with varying degrees of genetic relatedness.  Past kin selection can also be relevant to interactions between strangers, explaining how the cooperation first arose in the ancestral population.  However, modelling the effects of relatedness is difficult when the benefits of cooperation scale nonlinearly with the number of cooperators (e.g., economies of scale).  Here, we present a direct fitness method for rigorously accounting for kin selection in $n$-player interactions with $m$ discrete strategies, where a genetically homophilic group-formation model is used to calculate the necessary higher-order relatedness coefficients.  Our approach allows us to properly account for non-additive fitness effects between relatives (synergy).  Analytical expressions for dynamics are obtained, and they can be solved numerically for modestly sized groups and numbers of strategies.  We illustrate with an example where group members can verbally agree (cheap talk) to contribute to a public good with a sigmoidal benefit function, and we find that such coordinated cooperation is favoured by kin selection.  As interactions switched from family to strangers, in order for coordinated cooperation to persist and for the population to resist invasion by liars, either some level of homophily must be maintained or following through on the agreement must be in the self-interests of contributors.  Our approach is useful for scenarios where fitness effects are non-additive and the strategies are best modelled in a discrete way, such as behaviours that require a cognitive `leap' of insight into the situation (e.g., shared intentionality, punishment). Celebratory cupcakes. Three small cakes in a cardboard tray on a wooden table. The flavours are: raspberry cheesecake, orange poppy seeds, and berry frangipani.
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Ben Allen @evodynamics.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Reminder that we are hiring a full-time one-year math lecturer! Apply here: emmanuel.interviewexchange.com/jobofferdeta...
emmanuel.interviewexchange.com
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Dr Nadiah Kristensen @nadiah.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
🇺🇦
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Joel Mittleman @joeljm.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
I’ve now posted the national data, 2015-2023, in Stata format here. I will add state and district data when I’m able. www.datalumos.org/datalumos/pr...
datalumos.org
CDC National Youth Risk Behavior Survey 2015-2023
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